Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Indianapolis, IN

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000
FXUS63 KIND 230758
AFDIND

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Indianapolis IN
358 AM EDT Sun Apr 23 2017

.UPDATE...

The Synopsis, Near Term, and Short Term sections have been
updated below.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 358 AM EDT Sun Apr 23 2017

A quiet and warming start to the week is expected under the
influence of surface high pressure. The weather will turn active
again later in the week. Large scale troughing over the central
US will develop frontal systems which will impact the area midweek
and again late in the week and over the weekend, which will
return chances for showers and storms to the area.

&&

.NEAR TERM /Today/...
Issued at 358 AM EDT Sun Apr 23 2017

Surface high pressure and a large low pressure system passing
through the southeast will continue to draw dry northeasterly flow
into the area today. Thus little to no cloud clover is expected
today.

Well-mixed boundary layer may result in a few wind gusts to around
25 MPH this afternoon.

Low level thermal progs and dry atmosphere support a decent
warmup today, with widespread highs in the upper 60s and perhaps a
few 70 degree readings today with ample sunshine. This is
slightly above consensus numbers. Somewhat moist ground from
recent rains will prevent a better warmup.

&&

.SHORT TERM /Tonight through Tuesday Night/...
Issued at 358 AM EDT Sun Apr 23 2017

Dry weather will continue through the short term period as high
pressure controls the area and a slow moving, elongated area of
low pressure develops along a slow moving frontal zone to the
west. Other than a gradual increase in mid and high cloud late in
the period as the frontal system organizes, temperatures will be
the main significant forecast variable.

Low level thermal progs suggest steady warming throughout the
short term, with highs by Tuesday likely into the mid to upper
70s. Lows tonight will drop into the low 40s most of the area
(northeast winds off the urban heat island will keep IND readings
in the mid 40s), with lows Monday night around 50.

&&

.LONG TERM /Wednesday Through Saturday/...
Issued at 330 AM EDT Sun Apr 23 2017

Model ensembles indicate a short wave trough will lift across the
middle Mississippi valley and great lakes late Wednesday and
Wednesday night with a trailing cold front pushing across Indiana
early Thursday.  This will be followed by another system which will
affect our weather over the weekend.

Will raise POPS a little Wednesday night as the cold front moves
through. Showers may linger in the east Thursday morning. Then mostly
dry and a little cooler rest of Thursday.

Models indicate a warm front will develop across Indiana by Friday
as another low pressure system deepens over the central plains.
This will result in an increasing chance of showers and thunderstorms
Friday into Saturday.

Wednesday will be quite warm with highs in the upper 70s to lower
80s. Then cooler Thursday after the cold front moves through and then
warming up again over the weekend.   Tweaked Superblend temperatures
a little warmer Wednesday and Saturday and slightly cooler Thursday.
Otherwise...no significant changes made to temperatures.

&&

.AVIATION (Discussion for the 230600Z TAF Issuance)...
Issued at 124 AM EDT Sun Apr 23 2017

VFR conditions expected through the period.

Dry air at the low levels will continue to flow into the area on
northeast winds. Thus only high clouds at times are expected.

Sustained winds will be less than 15kt through the period.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...NIELD
NEAR TERM...NIELD
SHORT TERM...NIELD
LONG TERM...JH
AVIATION...50



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