Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Indianapolis, IN

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000
FXUS63 KIND 100225
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
923 PM EST TUE FEB 9 2016

.UPDATE...

THE AVIATION SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 322 PM EST TUE FEB 9 2016

LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS WILL PERSIST THROUGH TOMORROW ON THE BACK SIDE OF
EXITING SYSTEM...BUT THEY WILL COME TO AN END TOMORROW NIGHT AS THE
SYSTEM PUSHES FARTHER EAST. MEANWHILE...HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE
TO STRENGTHEN OVER THE WESTERN TWO-THIRDS OF THE U.S.  SUBSIDENCE
ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA WILL RESULT IN DRY CONDITIONS FROM WEDNESDAY
NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT WITH BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES INTO THE
WEEKEND.  A FEW CHANCES FOR SNOW SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE ON FRIDAY
AND AGAIN LATE IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD AS ANOTHER SYSTEM SWEEPS
THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES REGION ON SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TONIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 657 PM EST TUE FEB 9 2016

MINOR ADJUSTMENTS MADE TO POPS BASED ON RADAR TRENDS. GENERAL
PROGRESSION OF THE FORECAST STILL IN FINE SHAPE. PREVIOUS
DISCUSSION FOLLOWS.

ISSUED AT 322 PM EST TUE FEB 9 2016

THE MAIN FOCUS OF THE NEAR TERM PERIOD WILL CONTINUE TO BE SNOW
SHOWER CHANCES THROUGH THE NIGHT.

CURRENT RADAR MOSAIC SHOWS INCREASING SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY ACROSS
THE NORTHWESTERN QUADRANT OF THE FORECAST AREA AS DYNAMICS IMPROVE
WITH DIURNAL EFFECTS. VISIBILITIES WILL BE REDUCED DURING ANY OF
THE HEAVIER SNOW SQUALLS...BUT SNOW AMOUNTS ARE STILL EXPECTED TO
BE MINIMAL WITH ADDITIONAL TOTALS ONLY UP TO 1 INCH. AS A
RESULT...WILL CONTINUE TO HIGHLIGHT WITH A SPECIAL WEATHER
STATEMENT.

WINDS WILL REMAIN BREEZY OUT OF THE NORTHWEST THROUGH THE NIGHT
CREATING WIND CHILL READINGS OF 2 BELOW TO 8 ABOVE ZERO. SUSTAINED
WIND SPEEDS WILL RANGE BETWEEN 10 TO 15 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 25
MPH WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE LOW TO MID TEENS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TOMORROW THROUGH FRIDAY/...
ISSUED AT 322 PM EST TUE FEB 9 2016

SNOW SHOWERS WILL QUICKLY TAPER OFF FROM WEST TO EAST TOMORROW AS
UPPER TROUGH MOVES FARTHER EAST. MEANWHILE...A LARGE RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO STRENGTHEN OVER THE WESTERN U.S. STRONG
SUBSIDENCE OVER CENTRAL INDIANA WILL RESULT IN DRY CONDITIONS FROM
WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT. SO...THE MAIN FOCUS OF THE
SHORT TERM WILL BE LATE IN THE PERIOD AS SNOW CHANCES INCREASE ON
FRIDAY. A BROAD UPPER LOW OVER ONTARIO WILL SHIFT TO THE SOUTHEAST
CREATING NORTHWEST FLOW OVER LAKE MICHIGAN. FETCH WILL BE
EFFICIENT ENOUGH FOR LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS TO INFILTRATE
CENTRAL INDIANA. SNOW AMOUNTS WILL BE VERY LIGHT THOUGH.

THE OTHER AREA OF FOCUS THROUGH THE PERIOD WILL BE THE BELOW
NORMAL TEMPERATURES WITH AN ARCTIC AIRMASS IN PLACE. HIGH
TEMPERATURES WILL STRUGGLE TO GET OUT OF THE TEENS TOMORROW AND
WILL REMAIN IN THE 20S FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.
MEANWHILE...OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE IN THE SINGLE DIGITS AND LOW
TEENS. THE COLDEST NIGHT IN THE PERIOD WILL BE ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT
AS SKIES BECOME PARTLY CLOUDY. WIND CHILL READINGS COULD DIP TO
NEAR 8 BELOW ZERO EARLY THURSDAY MORNING.

&&

.LONG TERM /DISCUSSION FOR FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
ISSUED AT 231 PM EST TUE FEB 9 2016

MODELS IN AGREEMENT THAT THE PERIOD STARTS WITH STRONG ARCTIC
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST FRIDAY
NIGHT AND INTO THE ATLANTIC STATES BY SUNDAY. THIS WILL RESULT IN
A DRY AND COLD PERIOD FOR CENTRAL INDIANA BUT MODERATION ALREADY
BEGINS SUNDAY. THIS MAY BE THE LAST FLIRT WITH NEAR ZERO
TEMPERATURES FOR THE WINTER AS THE FLOW BECOMES MORE ZONAL LATE
NEXT WEEK.

LATE SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY THERE IS A BIT OF MODEL DIFFERENCES
IN HOW A TROUGH IN THE WEST TAKES SHAPE AND HEADS INTO THE GREAT
LAKES AND OHIO VALLEY. CONFIDENCE LOW AS LATEST EURO DEVELOPS
SEPARATE NORTHERN AND SOUTHERN SYSTEMS WHILE GFS FEEDS MORE OF
SOUTHERN STREAM MOISTURE INTO INDIANA. THUS GFS SUGGESTS SEVERAL
INCHES OF SNOW OR MORE MAY BE POSSIBLE SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY
WHILE EURO KEEPS MORE MOISTURE SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA.
CONSENSUS SOLUTION WILL BE USED FOR NOW AND SNOW AMOUNTS LIKELY
TO BE ADJUSTED OVER TIME. ON THE HEELS OF THE ARCTIC HIGH WE
SHOULD REMAIN COLD ENOUGH THAT PRECIPITATION WILL BE SNOW THOUGH
GFS WARMS THINGS ENOUGH FOR A POSSIBLE MIX IN THE SOUTH MONDAY
AFTERNOON. WILL KEEP IT SIMPLE AS SNOW/RAIN MIX FOR NOW.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE DRAWING BACK TOWARDS SEASONAL NORMS SUNDAY
INTO TUESDAY AND A CONSENSUS OF VALUES WILL BE USED.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 100300Z KIND TAF UPDATE/...
ISSUED AT 923 PM EST TUE FEB 9 2016

APPEARS THE LOWER MVFR CEILINGS ARE IN THE PROCESS OF DISSIPATING
BASED ON RECENT OBSERVATIONS. WILL HOLD ONTO SOME OCCASIONAL CEILINGS
AROUND 025 FOR A FEW MORE HOURS AS THESE CEILINGS STILL EXIST IN THE
HEAVIER SNOW SHOWERS.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS.

SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL PROBABLY CONTINUE INTO THE EARLY MORNING
HOURS OF WEDNESDAY AS A VORTICITY CENTER MIGRATES OUT OF NORTHERN
ILLINOIS. HOWEVER...THE INTENSITY AND RESULTANT FREQUENCY OF IFR
VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS...SHOULD DIMINISH WITH TIME THIS EVENING AS
LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES BECOME LESS STEEP WITH LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING.
CEILINGS GENERALLY 020-030 TONIGHT.

SURFACE WINDS GENERALLY 280-300 DEGREES AT 10-15 KTS TONIGHT. SOME SURFACE
GUSTS 18-20 KTS MAY LINGER FOR A FEW HOURS AFTER SUNSET.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...TDUD
NEAR TERM...TDUD/NIELD
SHORT TERM...TDUD
LONG TERM...TUCEK
AVIATION...JAS


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