Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Indianapolis, IN

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000
FXUS63 KIND 010642
AFDIND

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Indianapolis IN
242 AM EDT WED JUN 1 2016

.UPDATE...
The LONG TERM Section has been updated below.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 117 PM EDT Tue May 31 2016

Tonight high pressure east of Indiana will continue to drift
farther east. Meanwhile a cold front over Minnesota and Iowa will
begin to push toward Indiana...before crossing the state on
Wednesday. Scattered showers and thunderstorms are expected on
Wednesday as the front passes across the Hoosierland.

Weak high pressure will then settle across Indiana on Wednesday
night and continue to persist across the area on through the end
of the work week. The high is expected to bring cooler and less
humid weather...along with northerly winds.

&&

.NEAR TERM /Rest of Tonight/...

Issued at 1004 PM EDT Tue May 31 2016

UPDATE...
Inserted mention of isolated showers and thunderstorms over the
northern counties through WED 04Z as diurnal convection lingers.
After that, expect a lull in activity until early tomorrow morning
when showers and thunderstorms will start increasing from the
west with a cold front. As far as temps, brought overnight lows
up a few degrees, which will result in readings in the low to mid
60s. Current temps across the area are still in the low to upper
70s. Updated grids have been sent.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
Main forecast challenge tonight will be pops. Any lingering
diurnal convection will be dissipating rather quickly as heating
is lost. At this time...coverage appears to be too isolated to
warrant any pops...however will monitor closely for any last
minute changes. Satellite indicates a dirty southerly flow with an
abundance of clouds upstream...and not all of a diurnal nature.
Thus will trend skies toward partly cloudy overnight and also
trend lows warmer than mavmos given the expected cloud cover and
southerly flow ahead of the cold front.

&&

.SHORT TERM /Wednesday through Friday/...

Issued at 117 PM EDT Tue May 31 2016

Wednesday looks to be the active weather day across Central
Indiana during this time period. Models suggest the previously
mentioned cold front and an associated short wave will push across
Central Indiana on Wednesday. Forecast soundings hint toward the
possibility of deep saturation with the caveat for convection
also. convective temps look like they could be reached along with
plenty of CAPE. Time heights on Wednesday show good lower and mid
level saturation. 305K GFS isentropic surface also shows good lift
ahead of the cold front along with specific humidities in excess
of 8 g/kg. Thus will trend pops higher than mavmos on Wednesday as
this system passes. Given the uncertainty for an all day rain and
the potential for some heating will stick close to mavmos for
highs.

On Wednesday night best forcing appears to be lost to the east and
the models suggest the short wave and cold front have exited the
area. The 305K Isentropic surface shows the only lingering lift
across the far eastern parts of the forecast area...while moisture
lingers and subsidence builds in the wake of the front. Thus will
trend toward some pops for the first few hours of the period in
the far eastern parts of the forecast area...while the rest of
central Indiana will get a dry forecast. Given the lingering
clouds but minimal temperature advection...will trend lows near
mavmos values.

Forecast soundings and time heights then show a dry column with
subsidence across the area on Thursday through Friday...with
minimal temperature advection. Cooler and less humid northerly
surface flow looks to remain in place as high pressure remains in
place over the Mississippi Valley. With a short wave pushing
dynamics across the northern Great Lakes at this time...a few
passing clouds cannot be entirely ruled out. Thus partly cloudy
looks like the way to go. Given the air mass...a blend of mavmos
and mexmos temps should work nicely.

&&

.LONG TERM /Saturday through Tuesday/...
Issued at 242 AM EDT Wed Jun 1 2016

The main focus of the extended period will be the transition to a
cooler and at times more unsettled weather pattern as an upper
trough amplifies over the region.

Best chances for rain throughout the period expected on Saturday
into Saturday night. Scattered convection will be possible as
deeper moisture is drawn north into the Ohio Valley and interacts
with low pressure and a cold front diving through the Great Lakes.
Chances for showers and storms will persist into Sunday as the low
moves slowly east through the Great Lakes and additional energy
aloft dives into the upper trough. The arrival of a secondary cold
front serving as the leading edge of even cooler air on Monday
warrants a continued mention of chance pops.

High pressure will build in beginning Monday night and should
maintain dry conditions for the region through the middle of next
week. Cooler than normal conditions will persist however as the
Ohio Valley remains in a northwest flow aloft on the back side of
the upper trough. After a warmer day Saturday ahead of the initial
cold front...highs are likely to be only in the low to mid 70s
Sunday through Tuesday with slow warming taking place beyond the 7
day.

&&

.AVIATION /Discussion for 010600Z TAF Issuance/...
Issued at 1220 AM EDT Wed June 01 2016

Good confidence that VFR conditions will continue through the
overnight and most of the rest of the period. Would not rule out
brief MVFR or worse conditions in thunderstorms after 12z as showers
and storms increase in coverage ahead of an approaching cold front.
Went with VFR showers in the prevailing group after 12z and through
around 21z. Also...models suggest plenty of instability...so have
prob30 thunder groups through 21z and VCTS after...until the cold
front passes. The front looks to reach Laf and Huf around 03z
Thursday IND and BMG around 06z.

Winds will be light and variable overnight and south and southwest 6
knots or less during the day today and west and northwest 6 knots or
less in the wake of the cold front.

&&

.IND Watches/Warnings/Advisories...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...PUMA
NEAR TERM...PUMA/TDUD
SHORT TERM...PUMA
LONG TERM....RYAN
AVIATION...MK



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