Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Indianapolis, IN

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000
FXUS63 KIND 301645
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
1245 PM EDT SAT APR 30 2016

.UPDATE...
THE AVIATION SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 358 AM EDT SAT APR 30 2016

LOW PRESSURE OVER SOUTHEAST KANSAS WILL MOVE TO WEST CENTRAL ILLINOIS BY
THIS EVENING AND ACROSS NORTHERN CENTRAL INDIANA TONIGHT AND ACROSS
NORTHERN OHIO SUNDAY.  AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS
NORTHERN INDIANA LATE SUNDAY.

A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN ACROSS OUR REGION MONDAY AND
TUESDAY.  HOWEVER MODELS MOVE A CLOSED UPPER LOW INTO THE GREAT LAKES
AFTER THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TODAY AND TONIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 948 AM EDT SAT APR 30 2016

ADDED THUNDERSTORMS OVERNIGHT AS STEEPENING LAPSE RATES SHOULD BRING
MORE INSTABILITY TO CENTRAL INDIANA PER MIXED LAYER CAPE PROGS.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS...
ISSUED AT 358 AM EDT SAT APR 30 2016

SHOWERS WERE BEGINNING TO SPREAD INTO PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN INDIANA AS WELL
AS THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY AND MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY.  ALL MODELS SHOW A
RAPID INCREASE OF RAIN SHOWERS NORTHEAST ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA BY MID
MORNING.  RAPID REFRESH INDICATES NUMEROUS RAIN SHOWERS MID MORNING TO
EARLY AFTERNOON AND THEN PRECIPITATION MAY DIMINISH SOME THIS AFTERNOON
ACROSS SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL SECTIONS.  MODELS MOVE A WARM FRONT INTO
SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF CENTRAL INDIANA BY LATE AFTERNOON AND THEN STALL IT OVER
NORTH CENTRAL SECTIONS LATER TONIGHT AS THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES OUR WAY.

SPC INDICATES A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ALONG AND SOUTH OF A
SULLIVAN TO SEYMOUR LINE WHICH WOULD BE LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY TONIGHT.
SOUNDINGS INDICATE PRETTY GOOD LOW LEVEL SHEAR...BUT INSTABILITY IS ONLY MARGINAL
EXCEPT FOR THE FAR SOUTH WHERE MU CAPES OF 500 TO 1000 J/KG WILL BE POSSIBLE
LATE TODAY.    CONCERNING TEMPERATURES HIGHS WILL RANGE FROM THE MIDDLE AND
UPPER 50S OVER NORTHEAST SECTIONS TO AROUND 70 FAR SOUTHWEST.

SOME MODELS INDICATE A 2ND ROUND OF SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS THIS EVENING...
OTHERWISE SHOWERS WILL DIMINISH OVERNIGHT.  WENT WITH CHANCE POPS MOST AREAS LATE
TONIGHT AND SLIGHT CHANCE POPS WEST AND SOUTHWEST LATE TONIGHT.

CONCERNING TEMPERATURES...WENT CLOSER TO 3 HOUR TEMPERATURES TONIGHT AS THEY
WILL BE NEAR STEADY...EXCEPT FAR NORTH WHERE THEY MAY FALL SOME LATE TONIGHT
AFTER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM PASSES BY.   WENT WITH LOWS FROM NEAR 50 FAR NORTHWEST
TO ALMOST 60 SOUTH.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 358 AM EDT SAT APR 30 2016

MODELS MOVE THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM ON TO THE EAST AND MOVE A COLD FRONT
SOUTH ACROSS OUR REGION SUNDAY.  AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE ACROSS
NORTHERN INDIANA LATE SUNDAY AND THIS SHOULD CAUSE SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS
TO BECOME MORE NUMEROUS SUNDAY AFTERNOON.  WENT WITH CHANCE POPS MOST AREAS
SUNDAY MORNING AND LIKELY POPS SUNDAY AFTERNOON.   SHOWERS WILL GRADUALLY
DIMINISH SUNDAY NIGHT AND DRY WEATHER WILL BE THE RULE MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT
AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST AND GREAT LAKES.

LATEST MODEL TRENDS INDICATE MORE CLOUDS MONDAY AS AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE MOVES
ACROSS THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND SOUTHEAST U.S. MONDAY...BUT ALL THE
PRECIPITATION FROM THIS SHOULD REMAIN SOUTH OF OUR REGION MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT.

CONCERNING TEMPERATURES WENT A LITTLE ABOVE A MOS BLEND SUNDAY WITH HIGHS FROM
THE LOWER AND MIDDLE 60S NORTH TO LOWER 70S SOUTH.   MONDAY WILL SEE HIGHS IN THE
LOWER TO MIDDLE 60S.   LOWS WILL BE IN THE MIDDLE 40S TO LOWER 50S SUNDAY NIGHT AND
IN THE 40S MONDAY NIGHT WHICH IS NEAR A MOS BLEND.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 358 AM EDT SAT APR 30 2016

THE EXTENDED PERIOD WILL START OUT WITH DRY CONDITIONS ON TUESDAY
WITH HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE.  HOWEVER...THE PATTERN WILL
QUICKLY BECOME MORE ACTIVE BY TUESDAY NIGHT AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
SLIDES ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION...FINALLY SETTLING INTO THE
OHIO VALLEY BY THURSDAY.  PERIODIC CHANCES FOR RAIN SHOWERS WILL BE
POSSIBLE WITH THIS SYSTEM FROM TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY
MORNING...BUT A LACK OF INSTABILITY WILL CONTINUE TO KEEP
THUNDERSTORMS OUT OF THE FORECAST FOR NOW.  AS THE SYSTEM MOVES INTO
THE DELMARVA AREA LATE IN THE WEEK...RAIN CHANCES WILL INCREASE
AGAIN ACROSS THE EASTERN PORTIONS OF CENTRAL INDIANA ON THE BACK
SIDE. MEANWHILE...TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD WILL BE NEAR
NORMAL WITH HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S AND LOWS IN THE 40S.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR 301800Z TAF ISSUANCE/...

ISSUED AT 1238 PM EDT SAT APR 30 2016

IFR CEILINGS SHOULD CONTINUE AT THE SITES THROUGH THE AFTERNOON
AND INTO THE EVENING. WIDESPREAD RAIN COVERAGE WILL LESSEN THIS
AFTERNOON WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY SOME EMBEDDED
THUNDERSTORMS TAKING IT/S PLACE. MAY INCLUDE VCTS FOR A FEW HOURS
LATE THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING BUT STILL MULLING THAT OVER AS
PROBABILITY AT ANY GIVEN LOCATION IS NOT HIGH. CHANCES FOR RAIN
ARE MUCH LOWER TONIGHT AND INTO SUNDAY MORNING...BUT COULD SEE
SOME LOW VISIBILITIES DEVELOP DURING THE OVERNIGHT GIVEN THE AMPLE
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE. NOT HIGH ENOUGH CONFIDENCE IN THIS TO GO LOWER
THAN IFR AT THIS TIME. STILL EXPECT TO SEE SOME WIND GUSTS AROUND
20 KTS THIS AFTERNOON BUT THOSE SHOULD CEASE AROUND SUNSET.
EXPECTING RAIN TO START UP AGAIN BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...JH
NEAR TERM...JH/MK
SHORT TERM...JH
LONG TERM...TDUD
AVIATION...CP


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