Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Indianapolis, IN

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000
FXUS63 KIND 270848
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
348 AM EST SAT DEC 27 2014

.UPDATE...
THE LONG TERM SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 344 AM EST SAT DEC 27 2014

A COLD FRONT FROM EASTERN IOWA TO EAST TEXAS WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS
OUR REGION LATE TODAY AND EARLY TONIGHT.  A DRY SECONDARY ARCTIC
COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST ACROSS OUR REGION AROUND TUESDAY. IN
THE LONG TERM AN ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BRING DRY AND COLD
WEATHER.  HOWEVER SOME MODELS INDICATE A CHANCE OF MIXED
PRECIPITATION TOWARDS DAY 7 AS LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES INTO THE
LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY.

&&

.NEAR TERM DISCUSSION /TODAY AND TONIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 344 AM EST SAT DEC 27 2014

RADAR LOOPS INDICATE AN AREA OF LIGHT RAIN WAS SPREADING INTO
WESTERN PARTS OF OUR REGION AND SHOULD CONTINUE TO SPREAD EAST
DURING THE MORNING HOURS. SOME MODELS INDICATE THERE MAY BE A LULL
WITH THE RAIN TOWARDS MIDDAY AND THEN HAS IT INCREASING AGAIN AS THE
COLD FRONT MOVES IN LATER TODAY.  WILL GO WITH LIKELY POPS MOST
AREAS TODAY. CONCERNING TEMPERATURES CUT THEM A DEGREE OR TWO FROM A
MOS BLEND DUE TO PRECIP AND CLOUDS.

THE NAM ENDS THE RAIN TOO QUICKLY FROM THE NORTHWEST TONIGHT.  THEY
HAVE IT ALREADY ENDED AFTER 00Z THIS EVENING FOR INDY AND AREAS TO
THE NORTHWEST.  ALL THE OTHER MODELS ARE NOT THAT FAST AND WILL GO
ALONG WITH THE SLOWER ENDING OF PRECIPITATION.  THIS SLOWER ENDING
MAY ALLOW A BRIEF CHANGE OVER TO MIXED PRECIPITATION ACROSS OUR FAR
NORTHWEST BY MIDNIGHT AND SOUTH TO THE I70 REGION BY DAYBREAK SUNDAY.
FOR TONIGHT WENT WITH A MOS BLEND OVER NORTHWEST SECTIONS AND
SLIGHTLY ABOVE IN THE SOUTHEAST AS COLD ADVECTION WILL NOT BEGIN
THERE UNTIL LATE TONIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 344 AM EST SAT DEC 27 2014

SEVERAL MODELS KEEP SOME PRECIPITATION ACROSS OUR FAR SOUTHEAST
SUNDAY AS A WEATHER DISTURBANCE TRACKS ACROSS TENNESSEE TO THE MID
ATLANTIC STATES. WILL CONTINUE LOW CHANCE POPS THERE AT LEAST
THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING. LOW LEVEL THICKNESS INDICATE MIXED PRECIP
COULD OCCUR OVER EAST CENTRAL SECTIONS SUNDAY MORNING AND MOSTLY
RAIN FARTHER SOUTH.

DRY AND COOLER WEATHER WILL BE THE RULE THROUGH THE REST OF THE
SHORT TERM AS THE FIRST FRONTAL SYSTEM CONTINUES EAST.

MOST MODELS INDICATE HIGHS IN THE UPPER 30S SUNDAY AND PERHAPS A
DEGREE OR TWO WARMER MONDAY.  LOWS WILL BE IN THE MIDDLE TO UPPER
20S SUNDAY NIGHT AND LOWER OR MIDDLE 20S MONDAY NIGHT AS A DRY
SECONDARY COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...

ISSUED AT 347 AM EST SAT DEC 27 2014

ZONAL FLOW ALOFT WILL RESULT IN DRY CONDITIONS FOR THE MAJORITY OF
THE EXTENDED PERIOD.  SO...THE MAIN FOCUS WILL BE ON THE NEXT SYSTEM
AT THE VERY END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.  GFS AND EURO ARE IN
AGREEMENT WITH A CLOSED LOW SITUATED OVER THE WEST/DESERT SOUTHWEST
ON TUESDAY.  THIS SYSTEM IS PROGGED TO ROTATE THROUGH THE DESERT
SOUTHWEST ON WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...ENTERING THE PLAINS ON
FRIDAY.  AT THAT POINT...THE GFS AND EURO START DIFFERING IN THE
TRACK OF THE SYSTEM...WITH THE GFS TAKING THE SYSTEM THROUGH THE
CENTRAL PLAINS...AND THE EURO KEEPING IT OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS.
THE EURO IS A TAD MORE PROGRESSIVE THAN THE GFS WITH PRECIP ENTERING
CENTRAL INDIANA AS EARLY AS FRIDAY MORNING.  MEANWHILE...THE GFS IS
HINTING AT PRECIP IN CENTRAL INDIANA AROUND FRIDAY NIGHT.  THESE
INCONSISTENCIES IN TRACK AND TIMING AT THIS TIME WILL MAKE IT
DIFFICULT TO FORECAST PRECIP TYPE THIS FAR OUT.  BUT FOR
NOW...LOOKING AT SNOW SHOWERS OVER THE NORTHERN COUNTIES AND A
RAIN/SNOW MIX OVER THE REMAINDER OF CENTRAL INDIANA ON FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY.


&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 27/09Z TAF UPDATE/...
ISSUED AT 327 AM EST SAT DEC 27 2014

UPDATE...
NO CHANGES.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
VFR CONDITIONS LIKELY REST OF THE NIGHT AT ALL SITES BUT IND
BRIEFLY...AND LAF WHERE MVFR WILL LIKELY PREDOMINATE MUCH OF THE
NIGHT.

APPROACHING FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL CAUSE MVFR OR WORSE CONDITIONS AND
RAIN TO OVERSPREAD THE AREA NEAR DAYBREAK...WITH CONDITIONS LIKELY
GETTING TOWARD THE LOW END OF MVFR AND PERHAPS EVEN IFR FOR A PERIOD
ON SATURDAY. WILL ONLY TAKE THINGS DOWN TO OVC010 AT THIS TIME
HOWEVER AS CONFIDENCE IN TIMING IS LOW.

WINDS WILL BE GENERALLY OUT OF THE SOUTH OR SOUTH SOUTHWEST THROUGH
TOMORROW AFTERNOON...WITH WINDS BECOMING WESTERLY AS THE FRONT
PASSES LATE TOMORROW AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING. WINDS WILL LIKELY
BE 10KT OR LESS THE MAJORITY OF THE PERIOD.


&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...JH
NEAR TERM...JH
SHORT TERM...JH
LONG TERM....TDUD
AVIATION...NIELD/TDUD

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