Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Jackson, KY

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FXUS63 KJKL 310043 AAA
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
843 PM EDT MON MAR 30 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 845 PM EDT MON MAR 30 2015

00Z SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS HIGH PRESSURE IN PLACE OVER THE TENNESSEE
VALLEY. THIS HAS HELPED TO CLEAR THE SKY LOCALLY THIS EVENING
EVEN AS MID AND HIGH CLOUDS ARE ATTEMPTING TO SPREAD SOUTH FROM
LOW PRESSURE OVER THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT
BETWEEN THESE TWO SYSTEMS SHOULD KEEP THE AIR STIRRED UP A BIT
MORE THAN NORMAL OVERNIGHT...LIKELY LIMITING THE RIDGE TO VALLEY
DIFFERENCES. HAVE MADE SOME FINE TUNE ADJUSTMENTS TO TEMPS AND SKY
COVER THROUGH THE REST OF THE NIGHT GIVEN THIS PATTERN. ALSO TOOK
INTO ACCOUNT THE LATEST SHORTBLEND GUIDANCE...OBS...AND TRENDS FOR
T AND TD FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS. THESE UPDATED GRIDS HAVE BEEN
SENT TO THE NDFD AND WEB SERVERS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 333 PM EDT MON MAR 30 2015

CURRENT CONDITIONS ACROSS THE AREA FEATURES WESTERLY FLOW AT THE
SURFACE WITH HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE MID MS RIVER VALLEYS
AND SLOWLY PUSHING EAST. WINDS GUSTING AROUND 20 MPH ACROSS MUCH
OF THE WILL BEGIN TO SEE A SLACKENING OF THE GRADIENT AND WINDS
BECOMING LIGHT HEADING INTO TONIGHT. BY TONIGHT...HIGH PRESSURE
AND CLEAR SKIES WILL BE IN PLACE. EXPECT A RIDGE VALLEY SPLIT
TONIGHT WITH A DIFFERENCE OF 7 DEGREES IN THE DEEPER VALLEYS OF
NORTHEAST KENTUCKY. TOWARDS LATER TONIGHT...SOUTHWEST WINDS SHOULD
BE ON THE INCREASE AS A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL BEGIN TO MOVE INTO
THE AREA AND ASSOCIATED CLOUD COVER. WITH THIS...WOULD EXPECT NO
FROST...OR VERY LITTLE TO DEVELOP LATER TONIGHT AS WELL AS NO FOG.

HEADING INTO THE DAY ON TUESDAY...MODELS HAVE BEEN A BIT
INCONSISTENT ON THE THREAT OF SHOWERS IN EASTERN KENTUCKY TUESDAY
AFTERNOON. HOWEVER WITH THE AMOUNT OF INSTABILITY THE GFS SOUNDING
HAVE BEEN SHOWING AND THE SREF SHOWING SOME QPF IN THE FAR EAST
AND SOUTH...HAVE PUT SOME SHOWERS BACK INTO THE FORECAST FOR
TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. AT THIS POINT...DO NOT THINK ENOUGH
MOISTURE WILL BE AVAILABLE FOR SOME THUNDER BUT A FEW MAY POP UP
NEAR THE TN BORDER AND SOUTH. GRADIENT WITH THIS FRONT LOOKS TO
BE A BIT STRONG WITH SOME WEST TO SOUTHWEST WINDS GUSTING TO NEAR
30 MPH IN THE AFTERNOON. IN ADDITION...THE WARM SOUTHWEST FLOW
WILL ASSIST IN MAX TEMPS RISING TO AROUND 70 IN A FEW PLACES.

THE PROGRESSIVE UPPER LEVEL FLOW WILL PUSH THIS DISTURBANCE OFF TO
THE EAST AS WELL WITH CLEARING SKIES EXPECTED LATE TUESDAY NIGHT
AND TEMPERATURES FALLING INTO THE UPPER 30S IN A FEW PLACES.
OVERALL A DRY SHORT TERM FORECAST IS EXPECTED WITH A SMALL CHANCE
OF PRECIP ON TUESDAY AFTERNOON.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 401 PM EDT MON MAR 30 2015

THE EXTENDED WILL FEATURE A VARIABLE WEATHER PATTERN...WITH MULTIPLE
TROUGHS...SHORTWAVES...AND RIDGES IMPACTING THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY.
OVERALL...EXPECT RATHER ZONAL FLOW TO BE THE BACKDROP...WITH
GENERALLY WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT AND SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES STAYING IN
PLACE THROUGH THE DURATION OF THE EXTENDED.

TO START OUT THE PERIOD...DURING THE DAY WEDNESDAY...UPPER LEVEL
RIDGING AND SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE AT PLAY. NW FLOW WILL
ALLOW SLIGHTLY COOLER BUT DRY AIR TO INFILTRATE THE STATE...WITH
AFTERNOON TEMPS EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM THE LOW TO UPPER 60S. THIS
HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL QUICKLY SHIFT SEWRD DURING THE EVENING AS
UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE PUSHES A SURFACE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM EASTWARD
ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL CANADA. WINDS WILL SHIFT TO A MORE SRLY
DIRECTION IN THE EVENING IN RESPONSE TO THE EXITING HIGH PRESSURE
SYSTEM AND RETURN FLOW...ALLOWING HIGHER DEW POINTS TO BEGIN
FILTERING INTO THE REGION AND TEMPERATURES TO WARM THROUGHOUT THE
DAY THURSDAY. IN FACT...TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY TOP OUT WELL ABOVE
70 DEGREES ACROSS MOST OF THE CWA BY THE AFTERNOON. THE LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM WILL FINALLY REACH JUST NORTH OF LAKE SUPERIOR THURSDAY
MORNING...DRAGGING A LONG COLD FRONT WITH IT. IF MODELS HOLD
TRUE...EXPECT THE COLD FRONT TO REACH THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY BY 0Z
FRIDAY...BEFORE STALLING OUT AND BECOMING NEARLY STATIONARY.

AFTER A DAY OF WARM...MOIST...SOUTHERLY FLOW...EXPECT SHOWERS AND
POTENTIAL THUNDERSTORMS TO BEGIN POPPING UP THROUGHOUT THE DAY ON
THURSDAY...INCREASING IN COVERAGE AND QPF AS THE FRONT REACHES THE
OHIO THURSDAY NIGHT AND THROUGH THE DAY FRIDAY. THERE IS SOME DECENT
WIND SHEAR THROUGH THIS ENTIRE PERIOD...BOTH DIRECTIONAL AND SPEED
SHEER...BUT BEST OVERALL FACTORS...INCLUDING CAPE AND LI/S WILL LINE
UP DURING THE DAY FRIDAY...WHEN SEVERAL SMALLER SURFACE LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEMS TRAVERSE KY /ATTACHED TO ANOTHER SMALLER UPPER LEVEL
SHORTWAVE/...DAYTIME HEATING IS IN PLAY...AND THE SURFACE FRONT
REMAINS NEARLY STATIONARY JUST TO OUR NE...PROVIDING A GOOD AMOUNT
OF LIFT.

A QUICK SHIFT TO THE EAST WITH THE UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE FRIDAY
EVENING WILL PULL THE FRONT THROUGH THE REGION IN THE MATTER A FEW
HOURS...WITH A FAST TRANSITION TO MORE STABLE AND COLDER NRLY AIR
DIRECTLY BEHIND AS YET ANOTHER HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM TRANSITIONS INTO
THE REGION. PRECIP WILL QUICKLY EXIT OR DISSIPATE...AND CLOUDS
LESSON LATE FRIDAY NIGHT. THIS COLDER FLOW WILL MAKE FOR A
CONSIDERABLE DROP IN TEMPERATURES. SATURDAY MORNING TEMPS WILL FALL
TO THE LOW 40S AS SKIES QUICKLY CLEAR OUT AND FLOW IS LIGHT FROM THE
N. DAYTIME TEMPERATURES SATURDAY ARE ONLY EXPECTED TO REACH THE LOW
TO MID 50S. THIS TREND WILL CONTINUE INTO SUNDAY...BEFORE THE HIGH
EXITS...RETURN SOUTHERLY FLOW ENTERS ONCE MORE...AND TEMPERATURES
BEGIN TO WARM SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND INTO THE DAY MONDAY. ANOTHER
SYSTEM MOVING ACROSS THE CONUS COULD BRING YET ANOTHER CHANCE FOR
INSTABILITY AND PRECIP BY MONDAY AS WELL.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 815 PM EDT MON MAR 30 2015

HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE THROUGH THE AREA OVERNIGHT
WITH MAINLY CLEAR SKIES AND VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED. A WEAK COLD
FRONT WILL PASS BY THE AREA LATER TONIGHT WITH THE BULK OF THE
CLOUDS AND ANY RAIN STAYING OFF TO THE NORTHEAST. AS SUCH...WILL
ALLOW FOR JUST SOME MID LEVEL CLOUD COVER TO AFFECT THE FORECAST
AREA FROM LATE TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY. WINDS GENERALLY FROM THE
WEST WILL BE SETTLING THIS EVENING BECOMING LIGHT LATE TONIGHT.
LOOK FOR THESE WINDS TO BACK TO THE SOUTHWEST DURING THE DAY
TUESDAY WITH SOME GUSTS UP NEAR 20 KNOTS AT TIMES.

&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...GREIF
SHORT TERM...SHALLENBERGER
LONG TERM...JMW
AVIATION...GREIF


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