Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Jackson, KY

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FXUS63 KJKL 231940

National Weather Service Jackson KY
340 PM EDT Mon Oct 23 2017

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Tuesday night)
Issued at 340 PM EDT MON OCT 23 2017

A shortwave trough is continuing to pivot northward across the
area with an expansive area of rain continuing to slowly exit
eastern Kentucky. The widespread rain will be quickly coming to an
end. However, The cold front is just now pushing across central
Kentucky and will cross the area through this evening. This will
bring another shot of rain with the front this evening. There has
been gusts up to 35 mph already reported with the frontal passage
down around Monticello and a few stations in central Tennessee.
Should continue to see some strong wind gusts potential with the
frontal passage this evening. A lull in precipitation is expected
overnight as the boundary layer stabilizes behind the front.
However, one more shot at precipitation will come late tonight
into early Tuesday morning as one last surface trough will cross
central and northern Kentucky. The better forcing and low level
convergence with this feature will be across the northern half of
the area, so will focus the better rain chances in the north. Any
precipitation will quickly end by midday Tuesday. A very fall-like
day is anticipated for Tuesday with temperatures struggling to
rise through the 50s with a chilly southwest wind. Troughing will
hold over the region through Tuesday night and this could allow
low clouds to build into the area Tuesday night with lows dipping
into the 30s. Due to the expected clouds and still some modest
wind, not expecting much of a frost threat Tuesday night.

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday through Monday)
Issued at 330 PM EDT MON OCT 23 2017

Surface high pressure will slide east of the area on Wednesday
with the surface high east of the area by Thursday morning. Warmer
air will begin to return to the area as a warm air advection
pattern sets up Wednesday night. However valleys should decouple
Wednesday night and some frost is still possible Thursday morning,
mainly in sheltered valleys. However, latest trends point towards
a decreasing chance of frost Thursday morning.

As the upper flow temporarily becomes more zonal across the area
and then an upper trough approaches from the west warmer
temperatures will return briefly for the end of the week. However
the approaching upper level trough will move east and deepen
across the eastern United States, a cold front will push across
our area this weekend, and the coldest air of the season will
overspread eastern KY for the end of the weekend and early next
week. Another round of rain will occur with the front, with the
rainiest period of the long term portion of the forecast being
Saturday. With highs only around 50 on Saturday it will be a raw

Although there are timing differences, both the 12Z GFS and ECMWF
bring 850 temperatures down to around -5 C by late in the weekend
or early next week. While it is not very likely, it is possible
that a few flakes of snow could mix in with any lingering rain
early Sunday morning. Temperatures near or slightly below freezing
are forecast for both Sunday and Monday mornings, though Monday
morning should end up being the coldest of the two days.


.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Tuesday afternoon)

Widespread rain will bring the threat of MVFR visibilities into
the early afternoon hours. A brief period of VFR conditions is
expected before MVFR cigs overspread the area into this evening
and overnight. Going to see a mix of MVFR/VFR conditions tonight
into Tuesday morning as a series of weak disturbances move across
the area. Conditions will improve to VFR by early Tuesday
afternoon. Gusty southwest winds may develop on Tuesday and could
impact take offs and landing pending runway configurations.




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