Area Forecast Discussion
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FXUS62 KKEY 211956

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Key West FL
356 PM EDT Fri Oct 21 2016

Currently - Light to gentle northwest to northerly winds across the
Keys are being driven by a subtropical cyclone well east of the
southeastern United States. A subtle wind surge is taking shape on
the waters just west and southwest of the Florida mainland and winds
are edging towards 15 knots. These winds continue to bring
relatively cooler and drier air across the Keys. Despite a nearly
cloud free day, temperatures climbed into the lower to mid 80s today
with dew points in the mid to upper 60s. Skies are now cloud free.
Stepping up to the larger scale, a cold front is pushing southward
through the Gulf of Mexico, with little in the way of shower activity
evident near the Florida Peninsula.

Forecast - Light to gentle northwest to north breezes will prevail
much of the night then increase a step as the cold front moves
through the Florida Keys. Expect sky cover to increase with only a
slight chance of showers. Winds will then hold steady or ease off a
bit through the day as the tightest pressure gradient holds up to our
west and the mainland warms. Expect temperatures to range several
degrees below normal with dew points dipping towards 60 degrees.

Winds will trend upwards and veer northeast through the remainder of
the week and into early next week as a high pressure system moves
into the southern United States, and then is reinforced by another
larger high across the eastern United States. Expect slim to no
chance of rain through this period with temperatures and moisture
remaining several degrees below normal. The strongest winds are
expected around mid week with winds veering east northeasterly.
Temperature and moisture will gradually moderate with the increasing
maritime trajectory.


A cold front working its way southwards through the Gulf of Mexico
will push through Florida Keys waters early Saturday. Winds are
expected to increase Saturday morning, increasing the most on our
western waters. Winds will increase more uniformly Saturday night as
an area of high pressure establishes itself in the southeastern
united states. This high will be reinforced early next week by a
larger high pressure system diving out of Canada into the eastern
United States. A small craft advisory will likely be required for
portions of Keys waters beginning around Sunday, and persisting
into Thursday.


VFR conditions are expected tonight for KEYW and KMTH.
North winds of near 10 knots will prevail for both terminals,
lasting through the first evening hours at KMTH. Winds will increase
again to 10 to 15 knots by sunrise Saturday with the passage of a
cold front.


Key West  74  82  71  82 / 10 10 -  -
Marathon  74  83  72  82 / 10 10 -  -




Data Collection......Vickery

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