Area Forecast Discussion
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FXUS62 KKEY 230835

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Key West FL
435 AM EDT SAT JUL 23 2016

Partly cloudy skies were observed over the Florida Keys and its coastal
waters during the overnight and early morning hours. A few showers were
lingering over the Straits of Florida to the southwest of Marquesas Keys,
while the rest of the area remained rain free. However, these dissipated
by early morning. Temperatures were in the lower 80s with winds generally
from the east-southeast near 10 knots.

Earlier this morning a surface high pressure over the central Atlantic
was extending westward towards Bahamas and it will shift westward
towards central Florida tonight and tomorrow. In the mid and upper
levels, a cutout low to the northeast of Florida will move southwest
tonight across central-south Florida and dissipate over the Gulf of
Mexico by Monday morning. GFS forecast soundings show PWAT values near
2 inches today through Monday evening. Chances for precipitation and
thunderstorms were kept 30 to 50 percent, higher today through Sunday
night as conditions will become unstable across the local area and
South Florida. High temperatures are expected to reach the upper 80s
to near 90 and maybe a relief could be felt in the evening depending
on any shower activity nearby. Latest forecast sounding for this
afternoon showed light winds and shear in the low levels and based on
the occurence of a few waterspouts yesterday afternoon, a small chance
of these occurring again today will be mention in the Hazardous Weather
Outlook (HWO).

On Monday night and Tuesday, the high pressure will shift westward and
with that a narrow area of drier air will possibly reach our area,
as suggested by the 00z GFS and Euro. Will monitor the future model
runs for this possible dry pocket and adjust the forecast accordingly.
By Tuesday night, low level moisture will return to the Keys and the
surface high pressure will be to the northeast of the Bahamas, extending
across northern Florida. Winds are expected to increase a few knots
and range from 10 to 15 knots from Monday through the remainder of
the forecast period.


Light to gentle winds will prevail during the weekend for the Florida
Keys coastal waters, mainly from the east to southeast. As thunderstorms
are expected to develop across the waters, mariners could experiencehigher
winds and seas near these. From Monday through the remainder of the
forecast period, winds will increase to a moderate breeze.


Today, generally VFR conditions will prevail through 18Z, with some
low cumulus and mid to high alto/cirrostratus. After 18Z, MVFR/IFR
CIGS and VIS will be likely within storms developing within the KEYW
and KMTH Intl terminals, but only VCTS has been added attm, as timing
of lower conditions not narrow enough for a tempo. Amendments will be
issued as necessary. Surface winds will average from 080-120 degrees
AOA 6 to 9 knots, but convective wind gusts will reach 25 knots in any


Key West  89  78  88  78 / 50 50 40 40
Marathon  90  78  91  78 / 50 50 40 40


.KEY Watches/Warnings/Advisories...



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