Area Forecast Discussion
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000
FXUS62 KKEY 230241
AFDKEY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR THE FLORIDA KEYS
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KEY WEST FL
1041 PM EDT FRI AUG 22 2014

.DISCUSSION...
CURRENTLY - SURFACE WINDS ARE LIGHT...AND MAINLY NORTHEAST TO EASTERLY
DUE TO RIDGING NEARBY ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA. DESPITE A NORTH OF EAST
STEERING FLOW...DRIER AIR THROUGH THE LOW AND MID LEVELS HAVE
PROVIDED QUITE THE HOSTILE ENVIRONMENT FOR SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM
PROPAGATION. ALL SHOWER ACTIVITY HAS GENERALLY BE NORTH OF OUR AREA
AND LEE OF SOUTH FLORIDA...AND HAVE GENERALLY BEEN SHORT LIVED.
TEMPERATURES ARE DRIFTING DOWNWARDS THROUGH THE MID 80S WITH DEW
POINTS IN LOWER 70S.

SHORT TERM UPDATE (OVERNIGHT) - SURFACE WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT...OUT
OF THE NORTHEAST TO EAST AS RIDGING REMAINS THE DOMINANT SYNOPTIC
FEATURE. THE LOW TO MID LEVELS ARE EXPECTED TO DRY AND WARM A BIT
FURTHER OVER THE NEXT 12 HOURS. THIS WILL PROVIDE AN EVEN MORE
HOSTILE ENVIRONMENT FOR SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT. SOME
SHOWER ACTIVITY WELL UPSTREAM OF THE KEYS MAY BE ABLE TO GENERATE
ENOUGH LOCALIZED CONVERGENCE FOR A SHOWER OR TWO OVER THE ISLAND
CHAIN LATER TONIGHT...BUT THE CHANCES WILL BE QUITE SLIM. MAY SHAVE
POPS A BIT IN A LATE UPDATE. TEMPERATURES OVERNIGHT WILL BE IN THE
LOWER 80S WITH DEW POINTS REMAINING IN THE LOWER 70S.

&&

.MARINE...
WINDS ACROSS KEYS WATERS WILL REMAIN LIGHT OUT OF THE NORTHEAST TO
EAST DUE TO RIDGING TO OUR NORTH. ONLY A FEW SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED ON KEYS WATERS. NO CHANGES MADE IN THE
EVENING MARINE UPDATE.

&&

.AVIATION...
.AVIATION...23RD/00Z TAF ISSUANCE...VFR SHOULD PREVAIL AT THE EYW
AND MTH TERMINALS. EXPECT MAINLY EASTERLY BREEZES AT AROUND 5
KNOTS.

&&

.KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

PUBLIC/MARINE.........11
AVIATION/NOWCASTS.....MSB

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