Area Forecast Discussion
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000
FXUS62 KKEY 091934
AFDKEY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KEY WEST FL
230 PM EST TUE FEB 9 2016

.DISCUSSION...
.CURRENTLY...
SKIES ARE MOSTLY CLOUDY WITH TEMPERATURES AVERAGING IN THE UPPER 60S
TO NEAR 70 DEGREES ALONG THE FLORIDA KEYS. MEANWHILE...LOCAL RADARS
ARE NOT DETECTING ANY PRECIPITATION ECHOES...BUT PATCHES OF FALSE
ECHOES IN THE FORM OF CHAFF ARE EVIDENT. SURFACE WISE...ANOTHER
IN A SERIES OF TROUGHS IS ALIGNED FROM THE SOUTHEAST UNITED
STATES INTO THE EAST CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO...WITH HIGH PRESSURE
CENTERED OVER THE EXTREME WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO. WINDS ARE
WEST TO NORTHWEST BETWEEN 14 AND 17 KNOTS IN OUR MARINE DISTRICT.

.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT)...
WITHIN A LARGE AND DEEP TROUGH OVER THE ENTIRE EASTERN UNITED STATES
SOUTHWARD TO THE NORTHERN CUBAN COAST...A COUPLE OF LOW LEVEL TROUGHS
WILL PASS THROUGH AND REINFORCE BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES ALONG WITH
LIMITED MOISTURE ACROSS OUR AREA. DUE TO PERIODIC HIGH STRATOCUMULUS
AND CIRROSTRATUS CEILINGS...MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
AT LEAST WEDNESDAY...BEFORE GRADUAL CLEARING OCCURS. THE COOLEST
TEMPERATURES CAN BE EXPECTED THURSDAY MORNING...WITH LOWS RANGING FROM
45 TO 50 IN THE UPPER KEYS TO 50 TO 55 ELSEWHERE.

&&

.LONG TERM (FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)...
THE AFOREMENTIONED DEEP CYCLONIC FLOW WILL SLOWLY LIFT NORTHWARD...BEFORE
ANOTHER LONG WAVE TROUGH SETS BY TOWARD THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
WITH THAT SAID...A GRADUAL WARMING TREND APPEARS ON THE HORIZON WITH
TEMPERATURES CLIMBING BACK TO NEAR NORMAL BY MONDAY. (HIGHS IN THE MID 70S
AND LOWS IN THE MID 60S. MEANWHILE...LOW LEVEL MOISTURE MAY INCREASE WITHIN
A STRENGTHENING NORTHEAST TO EAST TRAJECTORY. FOR NOW...WILL RETAIN ONLY
NICKLE POPS BUT ISOLATED SHOWERS MAY HAVE TO BE INSERTED IF ECE AND MEX
MOS GUIDANCE CONVERGE AND BECOME CONSISTENT.


&&

.MARINE...
KEEP IN MIND WINDS WILL UNDERGO MINOR INCREASES AND LULLS OVER THE NEXT
36 TO PERHAPS 48 HOURS. WITH THAT SAID...A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WILL REMAIN
IN EFFECT FOR INCREASING WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS WITH THE HIGHEST WINDS
ON THE DEEPER AND WARMER WATERS. IN ADDITION...A SIGNIFICANT SWELL WILL
PERSIST OVER THE DEEP...SOUTHEAST GULF OF MEXICO WATERS.

&&

.AVIATION...
UNTIL 12Z/10TH...OCCASIONAL VFR CEILINGS BETWEEN 040-050 ALONG
WITH CEILINGS OF AROUND 200 CAN BE EXPECTED AT THE KEY WEST AND
MARATHON TERMINALS. ON AVERAGE...WINDS WILL BE WEST TO NORTHWEST AT 10
TO 15 KNOTS WITH GUSTS TO NEAR 20 KNOTS.

&&

.CLIMATE...
IN 1995...THE DAILY RECORD LOW TEMPERATURE OF 48F WAS RECORDED IN KEY
WEST. TEMPERATURE RECORDS HAVE BEEN KEPT SINCE 1872.
&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
KEY WEST  63 68 56 65 / 00 05 00 00
MARATHON  60 68 52 64 / 00 05 00 00

&&

.KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR GMZ031>035-042>044-052>055-072>075.

&&

$$

PUBLIC/MARINE.........APA
AVIATION/NOWCASTS.....APA
DATA ACQUISITION......EV/SC

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