Area Forecast Discussion
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000
FXUS62 KKEY 011948
AFDKEY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KEY WEST FL
348 PM EDT WED JUL 1 2015

.DISCUSSION...
.CURRENTLY...
SAL CONTINUES TO MOVE ACROSS THE ISLANDS THIS AFTERNOON...WITH DRY
CONDITIONS BEING OBSERVED. A COUPLE SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE SOUTH OF
THE ISLANDS THIS AFTERNOON. CONVECTION OVER THE MAINLAND MAY MOVE
INTO THE GULF WATERS LATE THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING WELL NORTH OF THE
ISLANDS. ONLY FEW-SCT CU CLOUDS AROUND 2-3KFT AND SCT CIRRUS
STREAMING IN FROM THE SOUTH WERE OBSERVED ACROSS THE REGION.
TEMPERATURES WERE IN THE UPPER 80S TO NEAR 90 ALONG THE NORTHERN KEYS
TO THE LOWER 90S ELSEWHERE.

.FORECAST...
A SMALL INCREASE IN LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IS FORECAST OVERNIGHT...AND A
FEW SHOWERS OR STORMS MAY MOVE ACROSS THE WATERS AND NEAR THE ISLAND
CHAIN. THE SAL OUTBREAK WILL CONTINUE ON THURSDAY...SUPPRESSING
ACTIVITY. DRY AIR AND SUBSIDENCE ABOVE 900MB WILL ALLOW ONLY A VERY
SLIGHT CHANCE OF A SHOWER OR STORM. A BRIEF MOISTURE SURGE...WITH
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES INCREASING TO AROUND 2 INCHES...WILL MOVE
INTO THE FLORIDA STRAITS THURSDAY NIGHT AND THEN ACROSS THE ISLAND
CHAIN ON FRIDAY. IN ADDITION...A WEAK PERTURBATION ALOFT IS FORECAST
TO MOVE NORTHWARD ACROSS CUBA AND THE ISLANDS ON FRIDAY. SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE FORECAST.

SAHARAN DUST WILL THEN CONTROL THE WEATHER THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND
MOST OF NEXT WEEK WITH ONLY A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS/STORMS.
HOWEVER...A WEAK PERTURBATION IS FORECAST TO MOVE THROUGH THE AREA
MONDAY/MONDAY NIGHT..WITH AN INCREASED CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS
MONDAY NIGHT. EXPECT WINDS TO SURGE AND LULL THROUGH THE
BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK DUE TO WEAK PERTURBATIONS PROPAGATING THROUGH
THE AREA...AND DAILY INTERRUPTION OF SURFACE FLOW...ESPECIALLY ALONG
THE UPPER KEYS AND FLORIDA BAY DUE TO THE THERMAL TROUGH ON THE
MAINLAND. OTHERWISE ONLY SUBTLE CHANGES ARE EXPECTED IN THE FORECAST
THROUGH MIDWEEK.

&&

.MARINE...
SURFACE RIDGE WILL DRIFT SLOWLY NORTHWARD INTO CENTRAL FLORIDA
THROUGH THE WEEKEND. BREEZES WILL SURGE AND LULL THROUGH AT LEAST
MONDAY...WITH PERIODS OF CAUTIONARY WINDS MAINLY SOUTH OF THE ISLAND
CHAIN.

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. WINDS AROUND 100
DEGREES WITH SPEEDS NEAR 10 KNOTS. FEW-SCT CU AROUND 2.5KFT AND
CIRRUS AOA 20-25KFT. A COUPLE SHOWERS/STORMS ACROSS THE WATERS
OVERNIGHT SHOULD REMAIN MAINLY SOUTH OF THE TAF SITES.

&&

.KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

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