Area Forecast Discussion
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FXUS62 KKEY 310110

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Key West FL
910 PM EDT MON MAY 30 2016

KBYX detects isolated showers and thunderstorms throughout the
forecast area. Skies over the island chain are partly cloudy. Winds
over land are northeast to east at 5 to 10 mph. C-MAN winds, on
average, are east near 10 knots. Temperatures are in the lower 80s.

.SHORT TERM (Overnight)...
In the low levels of the atmosphere, the western extent of an
Atlantic ridge of high pressure will be located near the east coast
of Florida overnight. In the mid to upper levels of the atmosphere, a
trough of low pressure will be centered over the Florida peninsula
tonight. The 00z KKEY sounding is very unstable and quite moist for
this time of year, with a precipitable water value just above one and
three quarters of an inch. Atmospheric moisture will remain constant
overnight. Despite ample atmospheric instability and moisture in
place for convection, lack of large scale lift will limit POPs to
slight chance category tonight.


Gentle northeast to east breezes will prevail on all Keys coastal
waters overnight. No advisories or cautionary headlines expected
tonight through at least Saturday night.


The island cloud line will be the challenge for the terminal
forecasts through 31/23z. Expect several periods of MVFR ceilings
and/or visibilities due to showers and thunderstorms developing along
the Keys within these cloud lines, mainly Tuesday afternoon. Have
attempted to tie down the initiation of activity to between 14z to
19z, but we could see multiple episodes. Winds will be out of the
east to southeast less than 10 knots.


On this date in Florida Keys weather history, in 1960, 7.20 inches of
rain fell at Key West International Airport. This set the daily
record for maximum rainfall measured in Key West on May 30th, a
record which still stands 56 years later. In addition, this is the
wettest day ever observed in Key West during the month of May.
Rainfall records at Key West date back to 1871.






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