Area Forecast Discussion
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FXUS62 KKEY 191844
AFDKEY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR THE FLORIDA KEYS
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KEY WEST FL
244 PM EDT SAT APR 19 2014

.DISCUSSION...
CURRENT WEATHER SUMMARY -- ISOLATED SHOWERS CLEARED OUT OF THE
SERVICE AREA AROUND MIDDAY...AND AIR TEMPERATURES IN MOST ISLAND
COMMUNITIES HAVE BEEN STEADY IN THE LOWER 80S THROUGH THE AFTERNOON
HOURS. DEWPOINT TEMPERATURES ARE STARTING TO DROP A FEW DEGREES WITH
CURRENT READINGS COMING IN NEAR 70F. GENTLE TO MODERATE NORTHWEST
BREEZES PREVAIL AT MOST STATIONS...SOUTH OF A WEAK...SLOW-MOVING LOW
PRESSURE AREA CURRENTLY CENTERED NEAR THE FIRST COAST OF FLORIDA.

FORECAST HIGHLIGHTS -- A FAIR...FINE...AND BENIGN WEATHER PATTERN IS
SETTING UP FOR THE NEXT WEEK. AN INITIAL SHORT-WAVE RIDGE WILL BE
FOLLOWED BY ZONAL FLOW...AND THEN BROAD RIDGING AGAIN ACROSS MUCH OF
THE NORTH AMERICA SUBTROPICS. AS A RESULT...LARGE-SCALE SUBSIDENCE
WILL DOMINATE WITH INITIAL AIR TRAJECTORIES ROOTED IN DRIER
CONTINENTAL AIR. IN FACT...WE HAVE REDUCED RAIN CHANCES TO NEAR NIL
THROUGH WEDNESDAY...WITH ONLY SIGHT MEASURABLE RAIN CHANCES
THEREAFTER AS THE BOUNDARY LAYER SLOWLY WARMS AND MOISTENS.
&&

.MARINE...
NO ADVISORIES AND NO HEADLINES AT THIS TIME. AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE
OVER NORTHERN FLORIDA WILL MOVE SLOWLY EASTWARD ACROSS THE WESTERN
NORTH ATLANTIC TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY. THEREAFTER...AN AREA OF HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN ACROSS MUCH OF THE GULF OF MEXICO AND FLORIDA
PENINSULA...AND PERSIST THROUGH AT LEAST THURSDAY.
&&

.AVIATION...
19TH/18Z...GUSTY NORTHWESTERLY CROSSWINDS AT EYW AND MTH WILL
AVERAGE 15 TO 20 KNOTS LATER THIS AFTERNOON...OR EARLY THIS EVENING.
WEAK COLD AIR ADVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THE NORTHWESTERLY BREEZES
WILL PRODUCE TEMPORARY STRATO-CU CIGS BASED AS LOW AS 020. THESE LOW
LEVEL CIGS WILL PERSIST THIS EVENING AND EARLY TONIGHT. RAIN CHANCES
AT EITHER TERMINAL ARE NIL.
&&

.CLIMATE...
APRIL 19TH...ON THIS DATE IN FLORIDA KEYS WEATHER HISTORY...IN
1934...THE DAILY RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURE OF 89F WAS RECORDED...A
RECORD WHICH HAS HELD FOR 80 YEARS. TEMPERATURE RECORDS IN KEY WEST
DATE BACK TO 1872.
&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
KEY WEST  72  81  72  82 / -  -  -  -
MARATHON  71  84  72  84 / -  -  -  -
&&

.KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

PUBLIC/MARINE.........KASPER
AVIATION/NOWCASTS.....CLR
DATA COLLECTION.......PARKE

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