Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS New Orleans/Baton Rouge, LA

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772
FXUS64 KLIX 202156
AFDLIX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New Orleans LA
356 PM CST Tue Feb 20 2018

.SHORT TERM...
Steady state onshore flow persisting on what still appears to be
an out-of-season Bermuda ridge pattern. Meanwhile, strong
baroclinic zone with much more seasonable cold air was moving
though the central Plains States. Large shield of quasi-linear
convection breaking out along the front through Texas into the
Plains States, should move into the ArkLaTex region then stall
Wednesday. Locally, we maintain onshore flow and very warm anomaly
temperatures through Thursday, perhaps enhanced by compressional
heating a bit on Wednesday before losing compression with
retreating front Thursday. Difficult to go dry in this May-like
pattern so will maintain isolated PoPs but far less than organized
rainfall to take place much farther north of the forecast area.

.LONG TERM...
Southwesterly flow aloft will slow down advance of air masses a
bit until cut-off low feature in the desert southwest ejects
northeast this weekend. This finally allows the next continental
airmass to finally push off the central gulf coast Saturday night
into early Sunday, but stalls as frontal zone elongates over the
north-central gulf waters by Monday. Frontal zone then lifts north
as warm front Tuesday with area coming into warm sector once again
next Wednesday. Temperatures likely to settle closer to normal for
early part of next week before warming to above normal by mid-
week.

&&

.AVIATION...
MVFR conditions likely to prevail next 24-30 hours all terminals,
though KGPT/KPQL may have intermittent marine layer advection
clouds that come in IFR bases along with brief MVFR vsby
restrictions in the early morning hours. Still believe models are
overhandling fog situation given unseasonably warm conditions
underway.

&&

.MARINE...
Steady state onshore flow around 10-15 knots to prevail next few
days as frontal zones remains north of the coastal waters through
Saturday. Next front pushes off the coast Sunday but stalls over
the north gulf in time. That front retreats north out of the gulf
Tuesday afternoon.

&&

.DECISION SUPPORT...
DSS code: Green.
Deployed: None.
Activation: None.
Activities: None.

Decision Support Services (DSS) Code Legend
Green  = No weather impacts that require action.
Blue   = Long-fused watch, warning, or advisory in effect or high
         visibility event.
Yellow = Heightened impacts with short-fused watch, warning or
         advisory issuances; radar support.
Orange = High Impacts; Slight to Moderate risk severe; nearby
         tropical events; HazMat or other large episodes.
Red    = Full engagement for Moderate risk of severe and/or direct
         tropical threats; Events of National Significance.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB  70  79  67  81 /  20  40  40  30
BTR  71  79  68  82 /  10  40  20  30
ASD  70  79  68  80 /  10  20  20  20
MSY  72  79  69  81 /  10  20  10  20
GPT  69  75  67  77 /  10  20  20  10
PQL  70  77  66  78 /  20  20  20  10

&&

.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...None.
GM...None.
MS...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

24/RR



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