Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS New Orleans/Baton Rouge, LA
FXUS64 KLIX 262026
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New Orleans LA
326 PM CDT MON SEP 26 2016
A front currently residing just north of the forecast area will
turn stationary overnight as the parent upper level trough driving
the front southward begins to pull to the north and east of the
region. This will keep warmer than average temperatures and higher
humidity values through tonight and into tomorrow. Overnight lows
should only cool into the upper 60s and lower to middle 70s
tonight. Highs will climb back into the upper 80s tomorrow
afternoon. These temperatures will keep some low level instability
in place, and this should allow for another round of low end
chance POP to occur tomorrow afternoon.
The convective threat will diminish rapidly tomorrow night as
another short wave trough digs into the Plains states and drives
the stalled frontal boundary through the area. The front should be
offshore and over the coastal waters by Wednesday morning. The
forecast calls for clearing skies Tuesday night as drier air
begins to advect in from the north. Temperatures will also cool as
colder air feeds in from the north, and overnight lows should drop
into the lower to middle 60s over most of the region. With strong
subsidence and dry air advection continuing on Wednesday, mostly
clear skies and seasonably warm temperatures in the middle 80s can
be expected. Only the offshore waters should see continued
convective activity as the front pushes further south.
The front should finally push south of the outer waters by
Wednesday night. Over land, temperatures will cool significantly
due to the lighter winds and clear skies expected. Overnight lows
should easily fall into the upper 50s and lower 60s across most of
the area. The stable conditions will persist into Thursday and
continued advection of a colder airmass into the region should
push daytime highs down into the lower to middle 80s.
The heart of the mid level cold pool will be firmly entrenched
over the area Thursday night and Friday as deep layer northerly
flow dominates the Gulf South. With clear skies in place,
overnight lows will easily fall into the lower to middle 50s
across most of the area, and daytime highs should only rise into
the lower 80s Friday afternoon. These readings are expected to be
5 to 10 degrees cooler than average.
Deep layer ridging and strong subsidence are expected to continue
to dominate the forecast area for the upcoming weekend. A slowly
modifying mid-level cold pool will also linger over the Gulf
South. Overall, little change from the conditions seen on Thursday
and Friday are expected. Skies should remain mostly clear and
temperatures should remain slightly cooler than normal through the
Cumulus field with VFR bases to persist through at least 01Z with
some spotty convective coverage along frontal boundary near the
LA- MS line moving southward this evening. Any showers or storms
should dissipate or be well south of the terminals by 09z. VFR
CAVOK conditions expected beyond 09Z all terminals. 24/RR
Front still expected to move off the coast later tonight
with some lag time response to cooler advection towards daybreak.
This should allow for a period of instability gustiness for a few
hours early Tuesday before settling out. Some nocturnal enhancement
anticipated for the next few nights due to drier and cooler air over
the warm waters, but generally just below caution or advisory
DSS code: Green.
Decision Support Services (DSS) Code Legend
Green = No weather impacts that require action.
Blue = Long-fused watch, warning, or advisory in effect or
high visibility event.
Yellow = Heightened impacts with short-fused watch, warning
or advisory issuances; radar support.
Orange = High Impacts; Slight to Moderate risk severe; nearby
tropical events; HazMat or other large episodes.
Red = Full engagement for Moderate risk of severe and/or
direct tropical threats; Events of National Significance.
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB 67 86 62 87 / 30 30 10 0
BTR 68 86 65 87 / 20 30 20 0
ASD 72 88 68 87 / 20 30 20 0
MSY 75 87 72 87 / 20 30 20 0
GPT 74 87 70 88 / 20 30 20 0
PQL 73 87 68 88 / 20 30 20 0