Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS New Orleans/Baton Rouge, LA

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769
FXUS64 KLIX 111314
AFDLIX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
714 AM CST THU FEB 11 2016

...SOUNDING DISCUSSION...

A STABLE AND DRY AIRMASS REMAINS OVER THE REGION WITH A
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUE WELL BELOW NORMAL AT 0.46 INCHES. THERE
IS MORE MOISTURE IN THE LOWEST 1500 FEET COMPARED TO THE PREVIOUS
MORNINGS. OTHERWISE...A TEMPERATURE INVERSION EXTENDS FROM THE
SURFACE TO AROUND 4200 FEET. WINDS ARE FROM THE WEST OR NORTHWEST
THROUGHOUT THE ATMOSPHERE WITH A PEAK WIND SPEED OF 70 KNOTS AT
45700 FEET.

12Z BALLOON INFO: A ROUTINE FLIGHT LASTING 117 MINUTES AND
REACHING A HEIGHT OF 21.2 MILES ABOVE THE GROUND BURSTING SOUTH
OF HORN ISLAND 68 MILES DOWNRANGE FROM THE OFFICE.

ANSORGE

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 310 AM CST THU FEB 11 2016/

SHORT TERM...BIGGEST ISSUE OVER THE NIGHT WAS LOWS WERE SET IN THE
EARLY EVNG HRS AT MANY LOCATIONS AS WAA STARTED EARLY THIS EVNG
LEADING TO TEMPS RISING OVER MUCH OF THE AREA. TEMPS ARE RUNNING
ABOUT 10 DEGREES WARMER AT 8Z THAN THEY WERE THE PREV NIGHT.

VERY GOOD CONSISTENCY IN THE FCST THROUGH THE WEEKEND. AS HAS BEEN
MENTIONED ALL WEEK TEMPS WILL MODERATE SIGNIFICANTLY AND IS ALREADY
UNDERWAY. AS WARMER AIR MOVES IN FROM THE SOUTHWEST GULF AND MEXICAN
PLATEAU H925 TEMPS ARE EXPECTED TO JUMP UP TO AROUND 12-14C. THIS
WILL LEAD TO HIGHS ABOUT 10-15 DEGREES WARMER THAN YESTERDAY
RANGING FROM NEAR 70 TO THE MID 70S TODAY AND THEN UPPER 60S TO MID
70S TOMORROW. UNDER NW FLOW MID LVL HGHTS WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY
RISE AND WILL LEAD TO A DRY FCST.

STILL EXPECTING A WEAK BACKDOOR COLD FRONT SAT WHICH WILL BE
ASSOCIATED WITH A WEAK CLIPPER SYSTEM DIVING FROM THE GRT LAKES TO
THE MID ATLANTIC STATES LATE TOMORROW AND INTO SAT. THIS FRONT WILL
BE ANOTHER DRY FRONT AS MOISTURE JUST WONT INCREASE AHEAD OF IT
MAINLY DUE TO THE NW FLOW ALOFT. H925 TEMPS WILL DROP BEHIND THE
COLD FRONT TO AROUND 4-6C AND THIS WILL LEAD TO AFTN HIGHS ON SAT
ABOUT 10-15 DEGREES COOLER THAN FRI HIGHS (MAINLY IN THE 50S AGAIN).

THE AIRMASS BEHIND SATURDAYS COLD FRONT WILL BE VERY TRANSIENT WHILE
THE NW FLOW ALOFT WILL TEMPORARILY BREAK DOWN. WITH THE SFC HIGH
SHIFTING EAST OF THE APPALACHIANS SUN ALLOWING SRLY FLOW TO QUICKLY
DEVELOP AND GENERALLY ZONAL FLOW ALOFT MOISTURE SHOULD FINALLY
INCREASE OVER THE AREA AHEAD OF OUR NEXT SYSTEM ON MON. LL TEMPS
WILL INCREASE SOME WITH HIGHS ON SUN LIKELY IN THE UPPER 50S TO MID
60S. /CAB/

LONG TERM...THERE CONTINUES TO BE REAL GOOD CONTINUITY B/T THE
MEDIUM RANGE MDLS ALONG WITH GOOD CONSISTENCY. FCST CONFIDENCE
CONTINUES TO GROW WITH RAIN ON MON AND THEN DRIER AND SLIGHTLY ABV
NORMAL CONDITIONS THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK.

STILL LOOKS LIKE A STRONG S/W AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL IMPACT
THE REGION MAINLY MON. MOISTURE WILL INCREASE AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM
WITH PWS FINALLY BACK ABV 1" AND DEWPOINTS IN THE UPPER 50S TO NEAR
60. MID LVL HGHT FALLS ON THE ORDER OF 3-5DM IN 6 HRS ALONG WITH A
MID LVL JET CORE OF 90KTS MOVING THROUGH THE REGION WILL COMBINE
WITH A COLD FRONT AND SHOULD PROVIDE MORE THAN ENOUGH SUPPORT TO GET
NUMEROUS SHRA TO DEVELOP DURING THE DAY MON. SHRA WILL BE THE
DOMINANT WEATHER FEATURE BUT THERE WILL BE A LITTLE ELEVATED
INSTABILITY TO WORK WITH WHICH SHOULD ALLOW FOR A FEW EMBEDDED TSRA.
LIGHT SHRA COULD BEGIN AS EARLY AS THE OVERNIGHT HRS SUN ACROSS THE
NW BUT EXPECT MUCH OF THE ACTIVITY TO OCCUR DURING THE DAY MON AND
THEN TAPERING OFF QUICKLY FROM NW TO SE MON EVNG.

THE REGION MOVES BACK UNDER NW FLOW TUE AND INTO WED BUT A
PROGRESSIVE PATTERN WILL LEAD TO S/W RIDING ON THU. THE FCST WILL
REMAIN DRY WITH TEMPS NEAR NORMAL THX TO THE PACIFIC ORIGIN OF THIS
AIRMASS. WITH A PROGRESSIVE PATTERN IN PLACE...CONDITIONS WILL
QUICKLY MODERATE WITH SLIGHTLY ABV NORMAL TEMPS EXPECTED THE
REMAINDER OF THE WORK WEEK. /CAB/

AVIATION...VFR CAVU CONDITIONS ALL TERMINALS ENTIRE FORECAST
PERIOD. SOUTHWEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BECOME GUSTY DURING THE
AFTERNOON HOURS. 24/RR

MARINE...WEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL AT MODERATE LEVELS
TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY AHEAD OF SLOW MOVING FRONTAL ZONE IN THE LOWER
MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY. THIS FRONT WILL BRING A WIND SHIFT FRIDAY
NIGHT THAT MAY BRING THE WINDS TO NEAR SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS
BUT BRUNT OF COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL BE SHUNTING EAST THROUGH
SATURDAY. A STRONGER CLIPPER SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH MONDAY EVENING
THAT COULD RESULT IN SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS UPON ITS
PASSAGE. 24/RR


DECISION SUPPORT...
DSS CODE....BLUE.
DEPLOYED...NONE.
ACTIVATION...NONE.
ACTIVITIES...RIVER FLOODING CONTINUES ON THE PEARL RIVER.

DECISION SUPPORT SERVICES (DSS) CODE LEGEND
GREEN  = NO WEATHER IMPACTS THAT REQUIRE ACTION
BLUE   = LONG FUSED WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY IN EFFECT OR HIGH
         VISIBILITY EVENT
YELLOW = HEIGHTENED IMPACTS WITH SHORT FUSED WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY
         ISSUANCES; RADAR SUPPORT
ORANGE = HIGH IMPACTS - SLIGHT TO MODERATE RISK SEVERE; NEARBY
         TROPICAL EVENTS; HAZMAT OR OTHER LARGE EPISODES
RED    = FULL ENGAGEMENT FOR MODERATE RISK SVR AND/OR DIRECT
         TROPICAL THREATS; EVENTS OF NATIONAL SIGNIFICANCE

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB  74  50  70  44 /   0   0   0   0
BTR  76  53  73  50 /   0   0   0   0
ASD  72  51  69  48 /   0   0   0   0
MSY  72  55  71  52 /   0   0   0   0
GPT  69  52  68  48 /   0   0   0   0
PQL  69  52  69  47 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
GM...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$



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