Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS New Orleans/Baton Rouge, LA

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099
FXUS64 KLIX 290821
AFDLIX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New Orleans LA
321 AM CDT Mon May 29 2017

.SYNOPSIS...

Outflow from earlier thunderstorms over northern Louisiana and
southern Mississippi has moved south of Lake Pontchartrain and
currently lies near a Gulfport to Houma line. Behind the outflow,
dew points have fallen off into the lower and middle 60s.
Scattered thunderstorms are developing in advance of the outflow,
and most convection should be over the Gulf of Mexico by sunrise.

&&

.SHORT TERM...

Forecast problem of the day is how much the current convective
outflow stabilizes the airmass. Certainly there is at least
temporary stabilization as noted by radar, but the 12z soundings
should be rather instructive as to how long it will take to wipe
out the inversion the outflow has set up.

Models are showing another impulse, likely a MCV, moving away
from the south Texas convection this morning toward our area. It
should be noted that the HRRR depiction of the situation has been
running 3 hours or so behind reality for most of the night.
Convection allowing models (CAMs) are sending rather mixed
messages on convective redevelopment today. While there will
likely be a lull in precipitation this morning for much of the
area, will operate under the assumption that the lower levels will
mix out, allowing convective development as the next jet impulse
approaches. Will carry high chance to likely POPs, but forecast
confidence is somewhat lower than I`d like. Pattern repeats
through the daytime hours Tuesday before shortwave ridging tries
to build into the area Tuesday night and Wednesday. Will continue
to carry mention of thunderstorms through Wednesday, but POPs will
be lower Tuesday night and Wednesday.

Timing of clouds and precipitation will be the determining factor
in high temperatures over the next few days. Don`t expect many 90
degree readings today, and most areas not likely to get much past
the lower or middle 80s. Similar conditions Tuesday before
temperatures warm a few degrees on Wednesday. 35

&&

.LONG TERM...

Thursday should be somewhat similar to Wednesday with somewhat
lower POPs than the surrounding days, before deeper moisture
returns with impulses moving through the southwesterly mid level
flow across the area. Scattered convection is expected for the
weekend with the usual diurnally driven timing. Temperatures near
normal for that time period. 35

&&

.AVIATION...

Ceilings are remaining at OVC040+ outside TSRA and SHRA areas where
ceilings fall to OVC015. This will remain the case through at least
late morning and begin to improve after for all south shore
locations. But north shore terminals may continue with these
conditions for a bit longer into the afternoon hours. Will use VCTS
in most if not all tafs for this pack. The same conditions are
expected to move in again overnight. The number of TSRA may increase
by Tuesday morning.

&&

.MARINE...

Light to occasionally moderate onshore flow will prevail across the
coastal waters through the upcoming week as a ridge of high pressure
remains over the eastern Gulf of Mexico and Florida. A weak cold
front will stall today becoming more diffuse through mid week. A
general weakness in the atmosphere will remain through at least
Wednesday. Somewhat of a break in activity may occur thursday and
Friday but chances of sh/ts will once again be on the rise as we
move into next weekend. Winds and seas will be much higher in and
near thunderstorms throughout the week.

&&

.DECISION SUPPORT...

DSS CODE...Blue.
DEPLOYED...None.
ACTIVATION...None.
ACTIVITIES...Monitoring Mississippi River.

DECISION SUPPORT SERVICES (DSS) CODE LEGEND
GREEN  = NO WEATHER IMPACTS THAT REQUIRE ACTION
BLUE   = LONG FUSED WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY IN EFFECT OR HIGH
         VISIBILITY EVENT
YELLOW = HEIGHTENED IMPACTS WITH SHORT FUSED
         WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY ISSUANCES; RADAR SUPPORT
ORANGE = HIGH IMPACTS - SLIGHT TO MODERATE RISK SEVERE; NEARBY
         TROPICAL EVENTS; HAZMAT OR OTHER LARGE EPISODES
RED    = FULL ENGAGEMENT FOR MODERATE TONIGHT RISK SVR
         AND/OR DIRECT TROPICAL THREATS; EVENTS OF NATIONAL
         SIGNIFICANCE

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB  82  68  80  66 /  60  60  70  30
BTR  83  69  82  68 /  60  50  60  30
ASD  85  72  84  70 /  60  40  60  30
MSY  85  74  85  72 /  60  50  60  30
GPT  83  73  84  72 /  60  40  50  30
PQL  84  71  85  69 /  50  40  50  30

&&

.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...None.
GM...None.
MS...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$



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