Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS New Orleans/Baton Rouge, LA

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FXUS64 KLIX 020914
AFDLIX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
414 AM CDT SUN AUG 2 2015

.SHORT TERM...WHATS LEFT OF FRONTAL BOUNDARY STALLED ACROSS COASTAL
WATERS SOUTH OF LOUISIANA HAS DRIFTED FURTHER SOUTH TOWARDS THE
CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO. POPS WILL FOLLOW SUIT BUT STILL EXPECTING
SOME SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT IN OFFSHORE WATERS WITH
ISOLATED CONVECTION POSSIBLE ALONG THE LA COAST. STILL THINKING
TODAY WILL BE ANOTHER RAIN FREE DAY FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE CWA AS
WELL AS LITTLE CLOUD DEVELOPMENT. HIGHS TODAY WILL BE SIMILAR TO
YSTRDY WITH TEMPS MAXING OUT IN THE LOWER TO MID 90S. POST FRONTAL
DEWPOINTS STILL LOWER THAN THE PAST FEW WEEKS RANGING FROM LOWER 60S
TO ABOUT 70 DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. LA AND MS COASTAL LOCATIONS
WILL BE CLOSER TO THE 70-75 DEGREE RANGE. THUS HEAT INDEX VALUES
WILL NOT BE MUCH MORE THAN THE AIR TEMPS.

.LONG TERM... CURRENT UPPER LEVEL PATTERN OVER THE COUNTRY IS SUCH
THAT A RIDGE ENCOMPASSES ABOUT TWO THIRDS OF THE US WITH THE EASTERN
PORTION UNDER A TROUGH. THIS RIDGE WILL FLATTEN OUT AND SPREAD EAST
DURING THE UP COMING WEEK. PART OF THE REASON FOR THIS A COUPLE
WEAKER TROUGHS WILL TRACK EASTWARD ACROSS THE CENTRAL US MID AND
LATE WEEK. AT THE SAME TIME...SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL RETURN TO THE
REGION AS BERMUDA RIDGE IS ALLOWED TO BUILD BACK INTO THE AREA. THE
RESULT OF ALL THIS WILL BE A FAIRLY TYPICAL SUMMER TIME PATTERN.
HIGHS WILL BE AT OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL. AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS
WILL DEVELOP WITH 30 TO 50 PERCENT COVERAGE.

MEFFER
&&

.AVIATION...

VFR CONDITIONS AND LIGHT WINDS WILL PREVAIL...AND NO SHRA/TSRA ARE
EXPECTED TO IMPACT THE TAF AIRPORTS THROUGH SUNDAY DUE TO THE DRY
AIRMASS. 18

&&

.MARINE...

FRONTAL BOUNDARY ACROSS THE NORTH GULF WILL REMAIN STATIONARY
THROUGH TODAY AND DISSIPATE TONIGHT INTO MONDAY. DEEPER LAYERED
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL DEVELOP OVER NORTH CENTRAL GULF AND LOWER
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY BY TUESDAY. RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BECOME
ESTABLISHED OVER EAST GULF AND MAINTAIN A LIGHT TO MODERATE WEST TO
SOUTHWEST FLOW ON THE COASTAL WATERS TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY. 18

&&

.DECISION SUPPORT...
DSS CODE....BLUE.
DEPLOYED...NONE.
ACTIVATION...NONE. ACTIVITIES...RIVER FLOOD WARNINGS ON MISSISSIPPI
RIVER FROM RED               RIVER LANDING TO BATON ROUGE.
DECISION SUPPORT SERVICES (DSS) CODE LEGEND GREEN  = NO WEATHER
IMPACTS THAT REQUIRE ACTION BLUE   = LONG FUSED
WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY IN EFFECT OR HIGH          VISIBILITY EVENT
YELLOW = HEIGHTENED IMPACTS WITH SHORT FUSED WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY
        ISSUANCES; RADAR SUPPORT ORANGE = HIGH IMPACTS - SLIGHT TO
MODERATE RISK SEVERE; NEARBY                  TROPICAL EVENTS;
HAZMAT OR OTHER LARGE EPISODES RED    = FULL ENGAGEMENT FOR MODERATE
RISK SVR AND/OR DIRECT         TROPICAL THREATS; EVENTS OF NATIONAL
SIGNIFICANCE

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB  95  71  96  74 /   0   0  10  10
BTR  96  73  96  76 /  10   0  10  10
ASD  94  74  93  75 /  10  10  10  10
MSY  93  77  92  78 /  10  10  30  10
GPT  92  75  91  77 /  10  10  20  10
PQL  92  73  91  75 /  10  10  10  10

&&

.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
GM...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$



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