Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Louisville, KY
FXUS63 KLMK 280655
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Louisville KY
255 AM EDT Fri Oct 28 2016
.Short Term (Now through Saturday)...
Issued at 255 AM EDT Fri Oct 28 2016
Main concern this morning is for patches of dense fog. Area obs show
small T/Td spreads already, along with some reduced visibilities.
Latest satellite images do show some upper cloud cover that will be
the main limiting factor to more widespread instances of dense fog.
Ongoing forecast looks good to keep patchy fog wording in the
forecast and some dense fog wording in HWO. Will monitor during the
pre-dawn hours for any upgrades, but don`t expect to have to do this
as upper cloud cover should be a bit thicker by then.
Upper ridging and surface high pressure will be in control as we
start the weekend. Look for most highs around the 70 to 75 degree
range today, with lows tonight in the low to mid 50s. By Saturday,
increasing H85 temps and thicknesses under a steady SW flow will
allow for temps to jump to near record highs in the low 80s. This
will be around 15 degrees above normals for this time of year. Will
also note that winds will be a little gusty on Saturday, between 20
and 30 mph at times.
.Long Term (Saturday Night through Thursday)...
Issued at 315 AM EDT Thu Oct 28 2016
...Near Record Highs Next Week...
Saturday Night - Wednesday...
We`ll remain on the northern fringe of an upper ridge that dominates
most of the southern CONUS through the middle of next week.
Meanwhile, zonal flow across the northern half of the CONUS will
allow for several weak disturbances moving through the flow. These
features will lack enough moisture to bring any precipitation
chances to our area, so will continue with a dry forecast. Will note
a dry cool frontal passage Sunday evening.
The main stories will be the continued dry conditions and the well
above normal temperatures for this time of year. Highs each day will
be in the upper 70s to low 80s, with lows each night in the mid to
upper 50s or around 60. Halloween Monday and Tuesday look to be the
warmest days of the extended where most spots should be in the low
80s. At this point, we are forecasting near record highs but it is
not out of the question that some records could be broken. Stay
Wednesday Night - Thursday...
The upper ridge axis finally breaks down a bit mid week in response
to a shortwave digging into the region. This feature will drag a
cold front into the area, and depending on the amount of available
moisture, may bring some precipitation chances. At this point,
prefer the drier solutions offered by the ECMWF/GFS Ensemble Mean.
At the very least, the cool frontal passage would drop temps back
into the low to mid 70s, still above normal.
.Aviation (06Z TAF Update)...
Issued at 118 AM EDT Fri Oct 28 2016
Aviation weather for the overnight is a complicated one for sure.
Cloudiness has pretty much eroded across southern IN and central KY
early this morning. However, a batch of high clouds is quickly
pushing in from the northwest and will likely overspread the region
It appears that MVFR/IFR conditions will be possible at KBWG and
KLEX early in the period as skies remain clear and temperatures fall
toward the dewpoint. On the other hand, KSDF looks a bit more
optimistic overnight with perhaps only a drop into the MVFR range
for a short period. Current thinking is that fog will develop
within the clear skies between now and 28/07-08Z especially at
KBWG/KLEX. However, visibilities may improve as the high clouds come
in from the east limiting the radiational cooling later this morning.
Overall, forecast confidence for the overnight is below average in
terms of visibility and low cigs. Will continue to closely monitor
conditions and additional amendments may be required.