Area Forecast Discussion
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FXUS64 KLUB 252030

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lubbock TX
330 PM CDT TUE OCT 25 2016

High clouds thinning now just to the east of a weak upper impulse
edging into the high plains. A small cumulus field in eastern New
Mexico has responded to the surface warming in that area, and has
some potential for brief thunder development close to our southwest
corner late this afternoon. Otherwise we are not seeing response
across the border into our Texas counties. An earlier HRRR run was
one of few solutions briefly convecting in this area, but has been
vacant of thunder development in recent hours. The surface based
convectively available energy is significant today, while a small
area of inhibition still was needing removal. Owing to the delayed
surface warming, and lack of solution support, this forecast will
remain void of thunder mention for this evening and overnight.

Clearing skies will follow overnight, while a surface trough with
mild south to southwesterly flow will dominate. Late in the night,
the trough will edge south-southeast with low level flow gradually
veering and drying. A weak cool front will cross our northwest
corner just before sunrise with additional drying and slight
cooling. This front will bisect the area northeast to southwest by
mid morning Wednesday with surface flow turning north to northeast
and perhaps even a few breezier gusts close to 20 mph that might
briefly feel like a real cold front. Minimal thunder chances along
this front in our southeast Wednesday, will leave out for this
forecast with very little solution support. Stout upper level
ridging will build in from the west and clear skies will lead to yet
another above normal temperature day by afternoon. RMcQueen

Fairly benign weather is expected through the extended forecast with
temperatures residing well to the warm side of average. This will
occur as an upper level ridge builds in from the southwest late
week. The ridge will gradually deamplify and shift to the Deep South
next week leaving behind southwesterly flow aloft for West Texas.
Dry conditions will prevail as any embedded disturbances will be
directed up and around the high/region. One shortwave trough
traversing the Midwest Saturday may push a weak cold front toward or
briefly into the CWA late Saturday, but it will quickly retreat back
northward with minimal impacts locally. A similar scenario may
unfold Monday night or Tuesday. Altogether, the extended forecast is
dry and continues to favor the warm side of guidance, as has
generally verified the best as of late.


.LUB Watches/Warnings/Advisories...


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