Area Forecast Discussion
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FXUS64 KLUB 252328 AAA
AFDLUB

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Lubbock TX
528 PM CST Sat Feb 25 2017

.AVIATION...
VFR conditions will continue through the next 24 hours. Wind will
gradually swing around to the west to northwest by Sunday
afternoon.

Jordan

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 354 PM CST Sat Feb 25 2017/

SHORT TERM...
Primarily zonal flow aloft through the rest of today and into the
overnight will begin transitioning out of the southwest as
shortwave troughing digs farther into the much broader based
trough extending from Texas back into the Pacific Northwest. Light
south-southeasterly surface flow overnight, a 30kt LLJ out of the
south and some high clouds clouds gradually working east from the
sharpening shortwave to the west will result in a seasonably cool
start to Sunday but not nearly as cool as this morning. As the
trough deepens and draws closer during the day Sunday, surface
pressure falls across SE NM and 70kt jetmax will result in a
dryline extending roughly across the TX/NM border and pushing east
through the Rolling Plains into North Texas by late afternoon.
With downsloping and dry airmass we`ll see temps climb back into
the 60s for most of us with breezy westerly winds. SPC has much of
the South Plains and extreme SW Texas Panhandle in a state of
elevated fire wx concerns tomorrow afternoon before the dryline
retreats westward and RHs increase tomorrow evening.

LONG TERM...
The remnant wave will pass east early Sunday night with clearing
skies. A very weak front may slosh briefly into the area Sunday
night but surface flow will recover back to southwest or westerly
Monday morning as a weak surface low pulls east into north Texas.
Monday pattern will be more relaxed in-between waves, and will
lead to much more sunshine and downslope breezes tapping at least
up to around 800 millibar flow. A breezy or low-end windy day is
expected.

The next wave, crossing Tillamook, Oregon Sunday evening, will
also open and scoot east across the intermountain west Tuesday,
emerging into the high plains early Wednesday. Solutions have
tightened height and pressure gradients more, now showing about 90
knots of flow at the 500 millibar level and 50 to 55 knots at 700
millibars Tuesday afternoon. We still expect a fair amount of
high and some mid level clouds that may very well restrict mixing
depth until late in the day. But surface pressures will fall
Monday night and Tuesday supporting at least a solid windy day on
the Caprock. With the above uncertainty, we will leave to later
shifts the assessment of just how strong the winds might become.
But a good bet, at least, for Wind Advisory levels on the Caprock.

A cold front will follow early Wednesday with dry and cooler
Wednesday and Thursday before a warmup heading into next weekend.
A low amplitude wave next weekend appears will remain to our
south with little impact. But an active wave passing to the north
next Sunday may send the next front southward into the area.
Solutions in disagreement this far out, however. RMcQueen

FIRE WEATHER...
Elevated to low-end critical is expected Sunday and Monday on the
Caprock and favoring the western Panhandle and South Plains.
Modest winds aloft will be overhead, and deep enough mixing to tap
somewhat into stronger flow.

Tuesday looks like a better chance for critical fire weather on
the Caprock as deep strong flow spreads overhead and surface
pressures fall. RMcQueen

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

14/93/14



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