Area Forecast Discussion
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FXUS64 KLUB 242317
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
517 PM CST SAT JAN 24 2015

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS THRU SUNDAY. MOSTLY LIGHT WEST WINDS TONIGHT TO
BECOME NW/NORTH AND INCREASE SOME BY NOON SUNDAY WITH THE PASSAGE
OF A COLD FRONT.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 345 PM CST SAT JAN 24 2015/

SHORT TERM...
INSOLATION AND LIGHT DOWNSLOPE BREEZES ALONG WITH INCREASING
THICKNESSES HAVE ALLOWED TEMPERATURES TO WARM INTO THE 60S OVER
PORTIONS OF THE ROLLING PLAINS THIS AFTERNOON WITH AREAS STILL
HOLDING ONTO SNOWPACK REMAINING IN THE 40S TO LOW 50S. A FEW HIGH
CLOUDS WILL FILTER IN FROM BOTH THE NORTH AND SOUTHWEST THROUGH THE
EVENING AND OVERNIGHT...DOWNSTREAM OF A SHORTWAVE TROUGH DIVING INTO
THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND MIDWEST AND AN UPPER LOW OFF THE COAST OF
BAJA. THESE DISTURBANCES WILL ALLOW WEST TO NORTHWEST SURFACE WINDS
TO REMAIN IN THE 10 TO 15 MPH RANGE OVERNIGHT...THUS THE RATIONALE
FOR BUMPING LOWS UP A TAD. SHOULD BOTTOM OUT IN THE MID TO UPPER 20S
WHERE SNOWPACK REMAINS WHILE OTHER LOCALES DROP INTO THE UPPER 20S
TO MID 30S.

ANOTHER MOSTLY SUNNY AND WARM DAY REMAINS ON TAP FOR THE SECOND HALF
OF THE WEEKEND. THE AFOREMENTIONED DISTURBANCE MAKING HEADWAY INTO
THE MIDWEST WILL VEER WINDS MORE NORTH/NORTHWESTERLY DURING THE
MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON AS SOMEWHAT COOLER AIR ALOFT ATTEMPTS TO
BACKDOOR INTO THE FAR SOUTHEAST PANHANDLE AND ROLLING PLAINS. ONLY
EXPECT THIS TO TEMPER THE ONGOING WARMING TREND WITH TEMPERATURES
EXPECTED TO MAKE IT INTO THE 50S TO NEAR 60 ACROSS MUCH OF THE
CAPROCK WITH 60S TAKING PLACE INTO THE ROLLING PLAINS AND FAR
SOUTHEASTERN PANHANDLE.

LONG TERM...
DRY AND MILD CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE FROM SUNDAY INTO THE MIDDLE
OF NEXT WEEK. THE UPPER LOW OFF BAJA WILL OPEN UP AND LIFT
NORTHWARD ACROSS THE GREAT BASIN MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. A WEAK
SHORTWAVE ON THE EASTERN FLANK OF THIS SYSTEM WILL MOVE ACROSS
WEST TEXAS ON TUESDAY AND BRING AN INCREASE IN HIGH-LEVEL CLOUD
COVER BUT NOT MUCH ELSE. ON WEDNESDAY...THE WEAKENING WAVE WILL
TURN EAST AND SLIDE ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS TO OUR NORTH. THIS
WILL TIGHTEN UP THE PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE AREA AND SHOULD
RESULT IN BREEZY CONDITIONS...AND LIKELY PUSH TEMPERATURES A
LITTLE HIGHER IN THE DOWNSLOPE FLOW REGIME...WITH HIGHS CLIMBING
INTO THE 70S IN THE ROLLING PLAINS AND PERHAPS SOME AREAS ON THE
CAPROCK. A COLD FRONT IS STILL PROGGED TO MOVE SOUTH THROUGH THE
AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT...STARTING A COOLING TREND HEADING INTO NEXT
WEEKEND. MED-RANGE GUIDANCE STILL INDICATES THAT A DEEP TROUGH
WILL FORM NEAR THE PACIFIC COAST LATE IN THE WEEK. HOWEVER...THERE
IS QUITE A BIT OF SPREAD REGARDING THE LOCATION AND EVOLUTION OF
THE SYSTEM. THE 12Z GFS SUGGESTS A DECENT ISENTROPIC LIFT SCENARIO
DEVELOPING ACROSS WEST TEXAS LATE THURSDAY INTO SATURDAY AND THUS
HAS FAIRLY AGGRESSIVE POPS. THE ECMWF ON THE OTHER
HAND...SUPPRESSES THE CLOSED LOW WELL TO OUR SW AS A SHORTWAVE
DIVES INTO THE MIDWEST...KEEPING US IN COOLER...DRIER NW FLOW
ALOFT...AND RESULTING IN MUCH LOWER POPS. BLENDED GUIDANCE
INDICATES ROUGHLY 20 TO 40 PERCENT POPS THROUGH THIS PERIOD WHICH
LOOKS REASONABLE UNTIL CONSISTENCY IMPROVES EITHER WAY. FORECAST
850MB TEMPS ARE QUITE A BIT WARMER IN THE LATEST RUNS AS THE GFS
HAS BACKED OFF ON THE STRENGTH OF THE COLD AIR INTRUSION...THUS
RAIN IS THE FAVORED PRECIP-TYPE...AT LEAST INITIALLY. FURTHER
COOLING MAY BRING SNOW INTO THE MIX BY SATURDAY NIGHT IF PRECIP IS
ONGOING.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        25  50  26  59 /   0   0   0   0
TULIA         28  52  31  63 /   0   0   0   0
PLAINVIEW     28  53  31  65 /   0   0   0   0
LEVELLAND     28  58  31  63 /   0   0   0   0
LUBBOCK       29  58  32  66 /   0   0   0   0
DENVER CITY   30  59  33  63 /   0   0   0   0
BROWNFIELD    30  59  31  64 /   0   0   0   0
CHILDRESS     35  61  34  70 /   0   0   0   0
SPUR          33  61  35  68 /   0   0   0   0
ASPERMONT     34  62  35  70 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

07


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