Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Sterling, VA

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FXUS61 KLWX 241605

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC
1205 PM EDT Mon Oct 24 2016

High pressure will return to the region through midweek. Low
pressure will cross to the north late in the week with the cold
front crossing the area Thursday into Thursday night. High
pressure returns for Friday.



Northwesterly winds across the region as a cold front has moved
off the coast. IAD VWP is not terribly impressive - 25 knots at
4000 feet...although the morning IAD sounding did show a
subsidence inversion around 6000 feet. Bottom line - it will be
breezy this afternoon but not expecting windy/winds over 30 mph.

W99 currently reading 65 degrees. This is probably close to the
max they will reach...although CAA not terribly strong. CHO
currently reading 69 will ikely reach the mid 70s.



Have issued a freeze warning for Highland/Pendleton. This is the
final night of the season that the Highlands can have freeze
products issued. Have issued a frost advisory for Augusta/
Rockingham northwest to Grant.

The gradient will relax a bit and decouple as well. Although the
airmass will be chilly, it will remain well mixed which will impede
radiational cooling. Do not have any frost concerns tonight due to
those winds.  The Central Shenandoah Valley may prove to be an
exception, but it would be premature to issue Frost Advisories at
this juncture. Highland and Pendleton even have freeze potential.
That is in the Hazardous Weather Outlook.

Tuesday and Wednesday will be quieter days as high pressure builds
in. That will allow for decoupling and radiational cooling
Tuesday night. Hence, there is a strong possibility for areas of
frost over a good portion of the area. Growing seasons could end
for some counties. Temperatures both days will likely be in the

Solutions becoming a little more progressive, bringing in isentropic
lift Wednesday night...primarily west of the Blue Ridge. Guidance
has gone more aggressive with POPs, and have included a chance for
overnight rain in the aforementioned areas.


Low pressure will be moving across the southern Great Lakes Thursday
while an associated strong cold front moves through the Ohio Valley.
Southerly flow will increase Thursday and showers are expected to
move from west to east Thursday and Thursday night. Windy conditions
are possible behind the frontal passage. The cold front will move to
the east by late Thursday night/Friday morning and showers will
taper off across the region. Rainfall amounts should stay under a
half inch through Friday. High pressure will briefly move into the
region Friday and Friday night before another low pressure system
moves into the Great Lakes. A cold front should cross the region
this weekend.

Temperatures should be seasonable if not cooler than normal through
the weekend.


VFR conditions today with northwesterly winds gusting into the 20s
this afternoon.

Will still have northwest flow Tuesday, but winds will be on the
order of 10-20 kt during the day, and become light Tuesday night.

A cold front will cross the terminals Thursday-Friday and may cause
flight restrictions.


Small Craft Advisory for all waters. Have extended Advisory for
the Bay and lower Potomac into Tuesday as momentum transfer looks
like it will support at least minimal SCA gusts.

A cold front will approach the waters Thursday and SCA possible


VA...Frost Advisory from 3 AM to 9 AM EDT Tuesday for VAZ025>027-
     Freeze Warning from 3 AM to 9 AM EDT Tuesday for VAZ503-504.
WV...Frost Advisory from 3 AM to 9 AM EDT Tuesday for WVZ055-501-
     Freeze Warning from 3 AM to 9 AM EDT Tuesday for WVZ505-506.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM EDT Tuesday for ANZ530>534-
     Small Craft Advisory until midnight EDT tonight for ANZ535-536.


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