Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Sterling, VA

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FXUS61 KLWX 280040
AFDLWX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC
840 PM EDT FRI MAY 27 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure will remain over the area through early Sunday.
Weak Low pressure may affect the region Memorial Day through
Tuesday. Weak high pressure builds for the middle and latter part of
next week. A cold front may push through the region at the end of
next week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Scattered showers and a few thunderstorms are losing intensity as
the sun sets this evening. Showers will still be possible this
evening across north-central MD and the Shenandoah Valley and
surrounding ridges. Dry conditions expected after midnight. Warm
and moist conditions expected tonight and patchy fog is expected
in low- lying areas especially where rain occurred this evening.

Guidance shows significant height rises over the region tonight
through Sat which should greatly inhibit t-storm coverage Sat but
a few pop-up showers still possible mainly northwest part of fcst
area.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
Ridge along the mid-Atlc coast will start shifting east Sat night
as tropical disturbance/tropical storm makes landfall on the SC
coast. Deep moisture will advect rapidly northward early on Sun as
deep layered SSE flow establishes across the mid-Atlc. Showers
appear likely Sun through the first half of Memorial Day.
Widespread clouds should keep temps down. Could be some heavy
rains over srn MD as tropical remnants track across ern NC and
sern VA.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Cold front approaches from the northwest on Monday as a low
pressure system slowly tracks north- northeast along the coast.
Surface high pressure briefly builds on Tuesday before cold front
moves across the area later that day. The front stalls over the
Delmarva Peninsula on Wednesday... near our area. The front then
lifts north as a warm front on Thursday with another cold front
moving across our CWA on Friday.

There is disagreement on the guidance as timing and location of
these systems... so keeping a chance of showers and thunderstorms for
most of our CWA during this period. High temperatures will be
around the 80s and lows around the 60s.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
-SHRA tapering off this evening. Patchy light fog or haze
overnight. Brief period of sub-vfr vsbys possible early Saturday
morning. Isolated t-storms possible Sat mainly at KMRB. Deeper
moisture spreads northward Sun on deep layered SSE flow as
tropical disturbance makes landfall on the SC coast.

VFR conditions expected during this period. Chance of showers
each day may produce sub-VFR conditions to the terminals.

&&

.MARINE...
Brought SCA conditions sooner to the lower bay as winds are
gusting to 21 knots. Model trends show winds diminishing after 06z
tonight.

Sub-SCA conditions expected during this period as winds will be
below SCA criteria.

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...None.
MD...None.
VA...None.
WV...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 2 AM EDT Saturday for ANZ533-534-
     537-541-543.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LFR
NEAR TERM...HAS/LFR
SHORT TERM...LFR
LONG TERM...IMR
AVIATION...HAS/IMR/LFR
MARINE...HAS/IMR/LFR



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