Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Sterling, VA

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000
FXUS61 KLWX 160742
AFDLWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
342 AM EDT TUE SEP 16 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH THE REGION DURING THE EARLY MORNING
HOURS. HIGH PRESSURE WILL RETURN LATER TODAY AND REMAIN THROUGH
THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
07 UTC SFC ANALY PLACES WK CDFNT MVG E OF THE THE PTMC HIGHLANDS
ATTM. PVA GNLY CONFINED TO PA/NY...AND THATS WHERE A SWATH OF SHRA
CAN BE FOUND ON RGNL RDR. LIGHTER SHRA S OF PIT...BUT W/O UPA
SUPPORT DOUBT THAT MSTR CAN MAKE IT OVER THE MTNS. WAA AHD OF FNT
RESPONSIBLE FOR A PD OF LWR CLDS. HV HAD DVLPG SHRA E OF THE
BLURDG IN RESPONSE TO THIS FEATURE. HRRR MODELED THIS FAIRLY WELL.
IF ANY PLACE HAS POTL TO SEE SOME PVA/JETMAX/WAA INTERACTION...
ITS MD NE OF THE PTMC RIVER. HV CHC POPS THERE...AS WELL AS ALONG
THE ALLEGHENY FRONT FOR LIFT FM UPSLOPE. THE REST OF THE I-95
CRRDR /DC TO EZF/ COVERED BY SCHC POPS DUE TO ISOL NATURE OF PCPN.

AFTER SUNRISE...THE CDFNT SHUD BE MVG ACRS THE DELMARVA...MARKING
CLRG SKIES AND THE END OF ANY SPRINKLES/SHRA. PRES RISES AND CAA
SHUD PROMOTE GUSTY WINDS...ALTHO THEY MAY NOT BE QUITE AS STRONG AS
THEY WERE LOOKING LIKE YDA. SOME GDNC SUGGESTING THERE MAY BE A FEW
MORE SHRA IN THE MTNS. WL KEEP ADDTL DIURNAL CU...BUT OPPORTUNITES
FOR ANY ADDTL PCPN LOOK MEAGER /TOO LMTD TO INCL IN GRID ATTM/.

LTST GDNC IN GOOD SYNCH W/ GOING MAXT FCST. HV BLENDED IT IN...ALONG
W/ BIAS CORRECTED GIDS TO ACCT FOR CONTD WARM BIAS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
HIPRES WL BE BLDG ACRS THE CWFA TNGT THRU TMRW NGT. HWVR...MSTR FM
THE STALLED FNT WL BE ACRS THE CAROLINAS. FURTHER...H5 HGT PTTN
SLIGHTLY TROFFY. THEREFORE...MAY NOT HV CLEAR/CALM CONDS THRUT. HV
PDS OF PT-MOCLDY SKIES...SPCLY ACRS CENTRL VA. WL BE KEEPING FCST
DRY THRU THE PD SINCE FORCING MINIMAL.

IN TERMS OF TEMPS...HV GNLY GONE ON THE COOL SIDE SUPPORTED BY CAA
AND UPR TROF AXIS. WHERE MOS DIVERGED...AM CLOSER TO MAV.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
NORTHERLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE THURSDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES ACROSS
THE THE NRN GREAT LAKES AND ONTARIO. A UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL
CROSS THE MID-ATLANTIC THURSDAY AND CLOUDS WILL INCREASE FROM NORTH
TO SOUTH THROUGHOUT THE DAY. DRY NORTHERLY FLOW AT THE SFC WILL
CONTINUE TO ADVECT LOW RH INTO THE REGION LEADING TO A DRY COLUMN.
ISO SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW AT THIS TIME AND WILL
CONTINUE THE DRY FORECAST THURSDAY. FCST MAX TEMPS WILL RANGE
FROM THE UPPER 60S IN THE MTNS TO MID TO HIGH 70S ALONG I-95 AND
EAST.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL STRENGTHEN ACROSS THE AREA INTO THE WEEKEND AS IT
WEDGES DOWN THE EASTERN SEABOARD. ONSHORE FLOW SATURDAY MAY LEAD TO
LOW STRATUS AS MARINE AIR MOVES INTO THE REGION. A SHORTWAVE TROUGH
WILL APPROACH THE MID-ATLANTIC SUNDAY WHILE HIGH PRESSURE WEAKENS.
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH
MONDAY.


&&

.AVIATION /08Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A COLD FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH THE TERMINALS DURING THE PREDAWN HRS.
A COUPLE SHOWERS CANNOT BE RULED OUT...BUT MOST AREAS WILL BE DRY.
WX RESTRICTIONS NOT IN TAFS DUE TO WDLY SCT NATURE OF PCPN.

THE BIGGER CONCERN FOR THE MRNG PUSH WILL BE CIGS. MVFR CONDS
ADVCG EWD AHD OF THE FNT. ITS LOOKING LIKE ALL TERMINALS WL BE
AFFECTED PRIOR TO FROPA. TAF AMD COMING. DO NOT FORSEE IFR.
FURTHER... CIGS SHUD LIFT TO VFR DURING THE PUSH.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL RESIDE ACROSS THE REGION FOR THE REST OF THE
VALID PERIOD. VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED. ONSHORE FLOW MAY LEAD TO
REDUCED CIGS/VSBYS SATURDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
A COLD FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH THE WATERS DURING THE ELY MRNG HRS.
AHD OF THE FNT...SLY CHANNELING HAS BROUGHT 20-25 KT GUSTS TO
TPLM2. WL HV A LULL IN WNDS INVOF CFP...WHICH IS WHERE WE ARE NOW.
POST-FROPA...NWLY FLOW WL MIX BETTER INVOF PRES RISES. MARGINAL
CASE OF 20 KT GUSTS. SCA IN EFFECT ATTM FOR MAIN CHANNEL OF THE
BAY AND TANGIER SOUND. SCA FOR ALL WATERS BEHIND THE FRONT...WHICH
WL BEGIN AT 9AM.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE WATERS TONIGHT AND RESIDE
THROUGH THE WEEKEND. N-NE FLOW ON THE WATERS IS EXPECTED.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...

A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE WATERS EARLY THIS MORNING. SHOULD HAVE
NW WINDS CAUSING BLOW OUT CONDITIONS BY THE TIME THE NEXT HIGH TIDE
ARRIVES. WATER MAY BE SLIGHTLY ELEVATED WRT ASTRO NORMS...BUT NO
PROBLEMS ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME.

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...NONE.
MD...NONE.
VA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 9 AM THIS MORNING TO 5 PM EDT THIS
     AFTERNOON FOR ANZ530-531-535>542.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     ANZ532>534-543.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HTS
NEAR TERM...HTS
SHORT TERM...HTS
LONG TERM...HAS
AVIATION...HTS/HAS
MARINE...HTS/HAS
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...HTS






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