Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Newport/Morehead, NC

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FXUS62 KMHX 190559

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC
1259 AM EST Sun Nov 19 2017

A strong cold front will move through the area late tonight and move
offshore early Sunday. High pressure will be over the area through
most of next week.


As of 905 PM Saturday...A strong cold front just west of the
mountains this evening will sweep quickly east and arrive in
eastern NC after midnight and move offshore by early Sunday
morning. The models are in excellent agreement that there will
be 2 opportunities for light precipitation during the next 12-15
hours. The first is with a batch of light showers currently
moving across the southern and central waters. These showers are
forecast to brush the immediate coast overnight and will
continue slight chance PoPs coast to cover. The second and
better chance will be with a broken to scattered area of showers
ahead and along the cold front which will affect the area
primarily from 8Z to 14Z Sunday (3 AM-9 AM). Radar currently
indicates a strongly forced line of convection moving into the
mountains. The models weaken the convection over the Piedmont
region after midnight before reaching Eastern NC. Therefore,
precipitation amounts are expected to be light, generally 0.10"
or less in most locations. Winds will continue to increase
overnight, especially vicinity of the Sounds and coastal areas
with a Wind Advisory in effect for Carteret County and the Outer
Banks. The combination of increased cloud cover and brisk SW
winds will lead to minimum temperatures on the order of 20
degrees warmer than last night with lows in the 55-60 degree


As of 330 PM Saturday...Patchy showers in association with cold
front will end by mid morning with clearing skies as dewpoints
quickly drop into the 30s by afternoon. Despite decent CAA, high
temperatures will still be in the pleasant low/mid 60s with W/NW
breezes subsiding by mid to late afternoon.


As of 230 am Sat...High pressure then builds in Monday and
Tuesday. Another front will move off the coast Wednesday
morning. Low pressure will pass by to the southeast Thanksgiving
Day into Friday.

Monday and Tuesday...High pressure will build in from the west
Monday and then move off the coast on Tuesday. Cold air aloft
will lead to much below normal highs on Monday, but then warmer
southerly flow on Tuesday will lead to milder highs. Highs
Monday will be in the mid 50s, and on Tuesday highs will reach
60-65. Low temps will be in the lower to mid 30s inland both
Monday and Tuesday mornings, with mid to upper 30s further east,
and low to mid 40s along the coast.

Wednesday thru Friday...Another fast-moving front will move off
the coast Wednesday morning. After that, an offshore trough
will develop and move over the Gulf Stream on Wednesday, and
will bring showers to eastern NC. Have slight chance PoPs west
of Highway 17 and chance east. Low pressure will pass by to the
southeast Thursday and Friday. GFS is much stronger with the
low, while the ECMWF is much weaker. Consensus is favoring the
ECMWF solution at this time. Will carry mostly slight chance
PoPs Thursday and Friday.

High temps will be in the mid 60s Wednesday, and then the mid
50s Thursday and 55-60 Friday. Low temps Wed will range from
the mid 40s inland to the upper 40s to low 50s along the coast.
Lows Thursday will be around 40 on the coastal plain to 45-50
south coast and OBX. Lows Friday morning will be in the mid to
upper 30s coastal plain to mid/upper 40s south coast and OBX.


Short Term /Through 06Z Monday/...
As of 100 AM Sunday...High confidence that VFR conditions will
dominate most of the TAF period, except for a brief period when
the cold front and associated showers pass through the area
between 08-12z when a 1-2 hour period of MVFR conditions will be
possible. Winds will increase tonight into Sunday with gusts up
to 30 knots and a chance of low level wind shear 35-40 KT to
occur. After the frontal passage, conditions will return back to
VFR with gusty NW winds diminishing late.

Long Term /Sun night thru Thu/...
As of 230 am Sat...VFR conditions forecast through the rest of
the period as high pressure builds back over the area.


Short Term /Tonight and Sunday/...
As of 905 PM Saturday...Expect deteriorating conditions with
increasing winds and building seas tonight into Sunday as the
cold front moves through the waters. No changes to current Gale
Warnings or Small Craft Advisories. SW winds ahead of the front
will increase to 25-35 knots on most waters after midnight, with
a few gusts to 40-45 knots early in the morning, before winds
become W/WNW and subside by late morning to midday on Sunday.
Seas will rapidly increase from 3-5 feet early this evening and
build to 8-14 feet by late tonight and early Sunday morning,
before diminishing offshore winds help subside the seas fairly
quickly by late in the day Sunday.

Long Term /Sun Night thru Thu/...
As of 230 am Sat...Winds Sunday night/Monday morning will be
NNW 15-20 kts, subsiding to 10-15 kts in the afternoon. Winds
Tuesday will be light and variable before becoming SSE 5-10 kts.
Another front will cross the waters Wednesday morning, with
winds becoming north 10-15 knots.

Seas will remain elevated through Sunday evening north of
Ocracoke, then subside to 3-5 ft throughout Monday, then 2-4 ft
Tuesday and Wednesday.


NC...Wind Advisory until 10 AM EST this morning for NCZ095-103-104.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 1 PM EST this afternoon for AMZ130-
     Gale Warning until 1 PM EST this afternoon for AMZ135-150-152-


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