Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Newport/Morehead, NC
FXUS62 KMHX 221716
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC
1216 PM EST Wed Feb 22 2017
High pressure will extend over the area from offshore through
Friday. A cold front will move through on Saturday. High
pressure will build in Sunday then slide offshore Monday into
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
As of 1210 PM Wednesday...Increased temps a few spots espcly OBX
as msunny skies and light SE flow leading to lower 70s even
some beaches. Due expect a few more clouds to develop this aftn
however greatly reduced sky cover espcly thru mid aftn. Many
inland areas will likely reach mid 70s given limited clouds thru
early aftn. Models cont trend of little if any precip this aftn
so removed pops inland but kept isold sprinkle wording in.
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM THURSDAY/...
As of 335 AM Wednesday, whatever precipitation that is able to
form should end quickly, but with a moist SE flow and plentiful
cloud cover, would expect milder low temperature readings for
tonight. Dropped lows tonight a few degrees based on the trends
from the past few night as lows should be in the low 50s for
most of the CWA, with a few mid 50s along the Outer Banks,
closer to the normal high readings for late February.
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
As of 315 AM Wed...Spring-like pattern through the extended
with much above climo temps expected before a stronger front
moves through by late Saturday. Temps temporarily back down to
near climo second half of the weekend into beginning of the work
week next week then warming above avg mid week.
Thursday through Friday...Closed low tracks into the SW
Atlantic in vcnty of the Bahamas on Thur. This feature will be
far enough away with continued high pres ridging in from the
east bringing dry conditions to the area. Some iso showers may
skirt the OBX from time to time as moisture convergence inc a
bit over the coastal waters. Temps will warm further into the
mid/upr 70s interior zones Thursday and again on Friday, and
remain in the upr 60s immediate coast with light southeasterly
onshore flow. Low lvl thicknesses between 1370-1380 meters on
par with ECMWF MOS values, with GFS MOS a bit too warm. Lows
will be mild as well and remain in the 50s with increasing TD
vals and light E to SE winds bringing threat for patchy fog each
Saturday...Upr trf and deep sfc low will track through Quebec on
Sat, which will drag a cold front through E NC by Sat evening.
Good agreement amongst 22/00Z global model suite (ECM/GFS/CMC)
with respect to timing and available moisture with this system.
The aforementioned closed low across the SW Atlantic will cut
off rich GOM moisture advection ahead of this front, so very
little chance of precip with the fropa. This is evident with
model instability vals lower than this time yesterday. Have
trimmed back pops to just slgt chance and confined to wrn/nrn
portions of the FA. Sat looks like the warmest day of the period
as low lvl thicknesses rise to between 1380-1390 meters under
partly cloudy skies yielding highs around 80 for interior zones
which will threaten some record highs.
Sunday through Tuesday...Front will have swept offshore
bringing cooler/drier air courtesy of building high pres across
the region. Highs will be near climo in the 55-60 degree range
on Sunday. Lows drop back down into the 30s by Mon morning under
mo clear skies and calm winds. Monday will already begin a
warming trend once again as high pres shifts offshore and SW
flow sfc and aloft develops. Temps will rise through the 60s on
Monday. Further warming into Tuesday as heights/thicknesses rise
well above climo once again and yield high temps in the 70s
.AVIATION /17Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
Short term /Through Thursday/...
As of 1215 PM Wednesday...VFR expected thru the evening with
sct to bkn cigs aoa 5000ft..with most of cigs due to high
clouds. Later tonight with light winds temps will approach
dewpts and could see some fog develop so cont prev fcst of MVFR
vsbys from 09z thru 13z. Once fog lifts shld again see VFR Thu
with sct to bkn clouds again and any cigs expected to be in VFR
Long term /Thursday Night through Monday/...
As of 315 AM Wed...Mainly VFR through the extended period as
high pres ridges into E NC from the Atlantic. Exception will be
during the overnights where patchy FG/BR possible with rising
dewpoints and light E to SE winds. Mainly dry cool front will
pass through late Sat with much drier/cooler air mass building
in Sunday. This will limit overnight fog threat Sat night
through Sun night.
Short Term /Today and Tonight/...
As of 1215 PM Wednesday...Light winds today with high pres
offshore just to the NE. Lingering ENE swell will keep seas in
the 3 foot range.
Prev disc...winds have now veered around to SE and should
continue at 10 knots or less today into tonight. Swells have
diminished around Diamond Buoy and combined seas will generally
be 2-4 feet today, although some 5-footers may occur this
morning over the far outer waters. Expect generally SE winds
5-10 knots and seas 2-3 feet tonight. Minimal changes made to
Long Term /Thursday through Monday/
As of 315 AM Wed...Light winds forecast through Friday as
sprawling high pres ridges in from the east. Southeasterly swell
from a low pres near the Bahamas will build seas to 6+ feet
Friday night into Saturday, with SW winds increasing on
Saturday ahead of approaching cold front. The front will sweep
offshore Sat night with strong NW winds 20-30 kt developing in
its wake which will keep seas elevated. High pres builds into
the waters Sunday through Monday bringing diminishing winds/seas.