Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Newport/Morehead, NC

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000
FXUS62 KMHX 280834
AFDMHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
334 AM EST SUN DEC 28 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE OVER THE AREA TONIGHT AND SUNDAY. A COLD
FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA SUNDAY NIGHT AND
MONDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE CENTERED IN THE VICINITY THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE WEEK...WITH A COLD FRONT APPROACHING NEXT
WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 330 AM SUNDAY...A FEW ISOLATED SPOTS BRIEFLY REPORTED FOG
BUT FOR THE MOST PART IT WAS SHORT LIVED AND MOST LOCATIONS REMAIN
FOG FREE THIS EARLY MORNING. CLOUDS WILL THICKEN AND LOWER AS THE
DAY PROGRESSES BUT SOUTHERLY FLOW AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING COLD
FRONT WILL BRING A WARM DAY WITH HIGHS REACHING INTO THE 60S
ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA...WITH UPPER 60S ACROSS THE SOUTHERN CWA. FOR THE
MOST PART SUNDAY WILL BE DRY. ALLOWED FOR A SLIGHT CHANCE OF A
SHOWER ALONG THE COAST THIS MORNING AND THEN POPS INCREASING INTO
THE WESTERN CWA TO AROUND 30 PERCENT BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM MONDAY/...
AS OF 330 AM SUNDAY...THE MODELS DIFFER SLIGHTLY ON THE TIMING OF
THE FRONT WITH THE NAM BEING THE QUICKEST TO PUSH IT THROUGH
OVERNIGHT SUNDAY NIGHT. FAVORED A BLEND OF THE GFS/ECMWF/SREF AND
PREVIOUS FCST FOR TIMING WHICH PUSHES THE FRONT TO ABOUT CAPE
LOOKOUT BY MONDAY MORNING. THE CHANCE OF RAIN RAMPS UP
TONIGHT...MOSTLY AFTER MIDNIGHT...BECOMING LIKELY TO CATEGORICAL
BY MONDAY MORNING AS THE FRONT AND SHORTWAVE CROSSES THE AREA.
LOWS SUNDAY NIGHT WILL BE MILD...IN THE UPPER 40S TO AROUND 50.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 2 PM SAT...LONG TERM PERIOD WILL START OUT UNSETTLED WITH
SHOWER CHANCES...THEN BECOMING COOL AND DRY...FOLLOWED BY A WARMING
TREND WITH ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS POSSIBLE NEXT WEEKEND.

MODELS CONVERGING ON A SOLUTION WITH RESPECT TO TIMING A BACKDOOR
COLD FRONT THROUGH E NC EARLY MONDAY. THE FRONT WILL BE AN
ANAFRONT...WITH BULK OF PRECIP AND CLOUDS ON BACKSIDE OF THE
BOUNDARY. AN OVERRUNNING REGIME LOOKS TO TAKE PLACE BEGINNING ON
SUNDAY NIGHT...WITH BULK OF ORGANIZED LIFT/FGEN TAKING PLACE ON
MONDAY WHERE POPS WILL BE HIGHEST. HAVE MADE ONLY MINOR ADJUSTMENTS
TO POP TRENDS...STEADILY INCREASING THEM THROUGH LATE SUNDAY
NIGHT...BECOMING CATEGORICAL TO LIKELY EARLY ON MONDAY. TEMPS WILL
BE MILD SUNDAY NIGHT WITH LOWS GENERALLY IN THE LOW/MID 50S. WEAK
CAA AND A STRENGTHENING FRONTAL INVERSION ON MONDAY WILL MEAN A
LOWERING OF CLOUDS AND WIDESPREAD LIGHT RAIN AND TEMPS STRUGGLING TO
RISE MUCH...AND HAVE BUMPED TEMPS DOWNWARD FOR HIGHS. READINGS
SHOULD RANGE FROM THE LOW/MID 50S NORTH TO UPR 50S SOUTH.

DEEP LAYER LIFT/FGEN WILL EXIT AND WANE ON MONDAY NIGHT...THOUGH
PLENTIFUL LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL MEAN LOTS OF LOW CLOUDS AND
POTENTIAL FOR DRIZZLE LINGERING THROUGH THE NIGHT. LOWS WILL BE MILD
FOR LATE DECEMBER...GENERALLY IN THE UPR 30S TO LOW 40S WITH THE
WIDESPREAD CLOUD COVER LINGERING.

HAVE CONTINUED TO KEEP TUESDAY DRY AS BULK OF MODEL SUITE INDICATES
DEEP LAYER DRYING THROUGH THE DAY. MAY BE SOME LINGERING LOW CLOUDS
IN THE MORNING...THOUGH LOOKS LIKE AT LEAST PARTIAL CLEARING BY
LATE AFTERNOON AS COOL HIGH PRES BEGINS TO BUILD IN. COOL AND DRY
WILL BE THE THEME FOR WED THROUGH THUR AS ZONAL FLOW DOMINATES
WITH NEAR TO SLIGHTLY BELOW CLIMO TEMPS. HIGHS SHOULD BE IN THE
UPR 40S/LOW 50S WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE UPR 20S/LOW 30S.

LARGE DIFFERENCES IN DETERMINISTIC 27/12Z GFS/ECM WITH REGARDS TO
SYNOPTIC PATTERN BY THE WEEKEND...WITH GFS MUCH MORE PROGRESSIVE
WITH A COLD FRONT PUSHING THROUGH SATURDAY...WHILE ECM HAS LARGE
RIDGING WITH DRY AND WARM THROUGH SAT. WILL CARRY LOW END CHANCE
POPS ATTM DUE TO THE LARGE DIFFERENCES IN MODELS AND THEIR
ENSEMBLE SOLUTIONS.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH 00Z MONDAY/
AS OF 130 AM SUNDAY...HIGH CLOUDS OVER THE AREA WILL BEGIN TO
THICKEN AND LOWER THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT AND INTO TOMORROW AS
MOISTURE STREAMS ACROSS THE AREA AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD
FRONT. VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL THROUGH NOON...BECOMING MVFR
IN THE AFTERNOON AS CEILINGS LOWER. FOR THE MOST PART MOST OF THE
DAY WILL REMAIN DRY WITH A FEW SHOWERS PUSHING INTO WESTERN AREAS
LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING HOURS. THE BULK OF THE
PRECIPITATION WILL HOLD OFF UNTIL OR JUST AFTER THE END OF THE TAF
PERIOD. EXPECT SOME FOG TO DEVELOP AS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE INCREASES
TONIGHT AND CEILINGS MAY LOWER TO IFR BEFORE THE END OF THE TAF
PERIOD AT 06Z MONDAY.

LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 2 PM SAT...A FRONT WILL APPROACH THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT WITH
RAIN CHANCES INCREASING THROUGH THE NIGHT. POOR FLYING CONDITIONS ON
MONDAY AS LOW STRATUS LOOKS LIKELY ALONG WITH WIDESPREAD RAIN. CIGS
SHOULD DROP WELL INTO THE MVFR RANGE POSSIBLY TO IFR BY MON
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. MONDAY NIGHT RAIN WILL END THOUGH AREAS OF
DRIZZLE AND WIDESPREAD LOW CLOUDS WILL LIKELY LINGER. CONDITIONS
IMPROVE ON TUE AND HIGH PRES BEGINS TO BUILD. DRY WEATHER EXPECTED
MID TO LATE WEEK WITH MAINLY CLEAR SKIES.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /TONIGHT AND SUNDAY/
AS OF 330 AM SUNDAY...NOT SIGNIFICANT CHANGES THIS UPDATE. MODELS
ARE IN PRETTY CLOSE AGREEMENT ON TIMING OF APPROACHING COLD
FRONTAL PASSAGE COMING LATE MONDAY NIGHT. THE NAM WAS A BIT FASTER
TO GET THE FRONT THROUGH THE ENTIRE AREA...BUT FOLLOWED A SLIGHTLY
SLOWER BLEND OF THE GFS/ECMWF/SREF AND PREVIOUS FCST. SOUTHERLY
FLOW WILL INCREASE TO AROUND 15 KT FOR THE COASTAL WATERS AHEAD OF
THE FRONT TODAY. THE FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE NORTHERN WATERS
AFTER MIDNIGHT AND WILL BE DOWN NEAR CAPE LOOKOUT BY EARLY MONDAY
MORNING. WINDS WILL LESSEN AS THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE AREA
WITH A BIT OF A SURGE BEHIND THE FRONT COMING DURING THE DAY
MONDAY. UNTIL THEN SEAS WILL REMAIN AROUND 2 TO 4 FEET FOR MOST OF
THE WATERS. THE EXCEPTION MAY BE A SMALL AREA OF 5 FOOT SEAS IN
THE CENTRAL WATERS AROUND DIAMOND BUOY TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY BEFORE
THE FRONT MOVES INTO THE AREA AND SOUTHERLY WINDS LESSEN A BIT.

LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 2 PM SAT...A BIT BETTER AGREEMENT ON TIMING BACK DOOR COLD
FRONT THROUGH THE WATERS...WITH FRONT SWEEPING THROUGH FROM NORTH
TO SOUTH EARLY MON MORNING. THE FRONT WILL SLOWLY PUSH THROUGH THE
WATERS ON MONDAY AND BY LATE MONDAY NORTHERLY FLOW WILL ENCOMPASS
ALL OF THE E NC WATERS. COULD SEE SOME GUSTS APPROACH 25 KT ON MON
THOUGH BETTER CHANCE OF SCA WILL OCCUR TUE AS SURGE OF STRONG N
WINDS OCCUR WITH STRONG CAA. WINDS AND SEAS DIMINISH WED AS HIGH
PRES BUILDS INTO THE AREA.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...RSB
NEAR TERM...RSB
SHORT TERM...RSB
LONG TERM...TL
AVIATION...RSB/TL
MARINE...RSB/TL




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