Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Newport/Morehead, NC

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000
FXUS62 KMHX 271652
AFDMHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
1152 AM EST FRI FEB 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE AREA TODAY AND REMAIN THROUGH THE
WEEKEND. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE NORTHWEST SUNDAY
NIGHT AND CROSS THE REGION MONDAY. THE FRONT WILL STALL TO THE SOUTH
MONDAY NIGHT THEN LIFT NORTH THROUGH THE REGION LATE TUESDAY. A
STRONGER COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND
CROSS THE AREA ON THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
RAISED AFTERNOON HIGH TEMPS A FEW DEGS GIVEN THE CURRENT TRENDS,
OTHERWISE NO CHANGES NEEDED.

RATHER BENIGN WEATHER CONDITIONS THIS AFTERNOON WITH SFC HIGH
PRESSURE IN CONTROL. THIN HIGH CLOUDS IN A MOIST SW FLOW ALOFT
WILL FILTER SUNSHINE THIS AFTERNOON. HIGHS TOP OUT IN THE LOW 40S
NORTH TO UPPER 40S SOUTH.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM SATURDAY/...
AS OF 208 AM FRI...HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES OVER THE AREA TONIGHT.
FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOWING LOW LEVELS MOISTENING UP SOMEWHAT SO MAY
SEE SOME LOW CLOUDS DEVELOPING FOR A FEW HOURS. WILL GO A LITTLE
HIGHER LOW TEMPERATURES THAN MODELS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 230 AM FRI...STRONG HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD JUST N OF THE
REGION SATURDAY. WILL BE QUITE COLD WITH TEMPS 20+ DEG BELOW
NORMAL WITH HIGHS LOWER 30S N TO AROUND 40 FAR S. THE HIGH WILL
CONT OVER THE REGION SAT NIGHT WITH COLD LOWS IN THE UPR TEENS TO
LOWER 20S INLAND TO UPR 20S/AROUND 30 CST. THE HIGH WILL SHIFT OFF
THE COAST SUNDAY WITH WAA OVER THE REGION...TEMPS WILL MODERATE
INTO THE MID 40S TO LOWER 50S.

WEAK COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE NW SUNDAY NIGHT AND CROSS
THE REGION MON. RAIN CHCS WILL GRAD INCREASE SUN NIGHT AHEAD OF
THE FRONT AND PEAK MONDAY AS THE FRONT CROSSES. FOR NOW WILL KEEP
POPS IN CHC RANGE GIVEN UNCERTAINTY ON TIMING/MOISTURE. WILL BE
MILD WITH LOWS SUNDAY NIGHT UPR 30S TO MID 40S AND HIGHS MON IN
THE 50S TO AROUND 60. THE WEAK FRONT WILL STALL TO THE S MON NIGHT
WITH DRIER AIR SPREADING S OVER ERN NC...LOWERED PRECIP CHCS WITH
JUST SLIGHT CHC SRN 2/3RDS OF AREA...LOWS MAINLY UPR 30S TO LOWER
40S. THE FRONT WILL LIFT BACK N AS WARM FRONT LATE TUE WITH CHC OF
SHRA AS TEMPS CONT IN THE 50S TO LOWER 60S S.

ERN NC WILL BE IN WARM SECTOR WED WITH SW WINDS...BOTH GFS AND ECMWF
SHOW LIMITED MOISTURE OVER REGION SO LOWERED POPS TO SLIGHT CHC
AND INCREASED TEMPS INTO LOWER 70S INLAND. NEAR SHORE WATER TEMPS
ARE COLD AND THIS WILL KEEP BEACHES MUCH COOLER WITH POSS THREAT
OF SEA FOG. STRONGER COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH WED NIGHT AND CROSS
THU...WILL REMAIN VERY MILD AHEAD OF THE FRONT THRU MIDDAY THU
WITH TEMPS WELL INTO THE 60S INLAND. SHRA WILL INCREASE THU WITH
FROPA.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY/...
FOG HAS LIFTED AS OF MID MORNING WITH VFR EXPECTED THE REST OF THE
DAYLIGHT HOURS. EXPECT CIGS TO LOWER TO MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS AFTER
SUNSET AS THE LOW LEVELS MOISTEN UP AGAIN.

LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 230 AM FRI...STRONG HIGH WILL BUILD IN FROM THE N THRU SAT
NIGHT AND MOVE OFFSHORE SUNDAY. THIS WILL LEAD TO MAINLY VFR THRU
SUNDAY WITH JUST SMALL THREAT OF SOME LOWER CIGS WITH NE FLOW SAT
VEERING TO SE SUNDAY. COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH SUNDAY NIGHT AND
CROSS MON WITH BETTER CHCS OF PDS OF REDUCED CIGS/VSBYS. FRONT
WILL STALL TO S MIN NIGHT AND LIFT BACK N AS WARM FRONT TUE WITH
POSS SOME LOWER FLIGHT CATEGORIES ESPCLY TUE AS MOISTURE INCREASES
OVER THE AREA.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /TODAY AND TONIGHT/...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN FROM THE NORTHWEST TODAY AND TONIGHT
WITH EXITING LOW PRESSURE WELL TO THE EAST WILL KEEP NORTHERLY
FLOW OVER THE NORTH CAROLINA COASTAL WATERS AND SOUNDS. WINDS
EXPECTED TO BE BELOW SCA CRITERIA TODAY AND TONIGHT. HOWEVER SEAS
WILL REMAIN ELEVATED OVER THE WATERS BEHIND THE LOW PRESSURE
THROUGH THE PERIOD.

LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 230 AM FRI...STRONG HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD NORTH OF THE
WATERS THROUGH SAT NIGHT THEN SLOWLY SHIFT OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC
COAST LATE SUNDAY. GUSTY N/NE WINDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH SATURDAY
KEEPING SEAS ELEVATED IN 6-7 FOOT RANGE FOR MOST OF COASTAL WATERS.
AS THE HIGH WEAKENS AND SLIDES EAST SUNDAY, WINDS WILL DIMINISH AND
BECOME MORE ESE. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH SUNDAY NIGHT AND CROSS
THE WATERS MON. SW WINDS WILL INCREASE TO 15-20 KTS AHEAD OF THE
FRONT THEN SHIFT TO THE NW BEHIND IT MONDAY. SEAS WILL BE IN THE 3-5
FOOT RANGE MON. MODERATE NORTH TO NORTHEASTERLY FLOW DEVELOPS MON
NIGHT WITH SEAS CONT 3-5 FT. A WARM FRONT WILL LIFT NORTH THROUGH
THE WATERS LATER TUESDAY WITH WINDS SHIFTING LIGHT SSE AND SEAS
MAINLY 2 TO 4 FT.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM EST SUNDAY FOR AMZ152-154.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST SATURDAY FOR AMZ150-156-
     158.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...CCG/RF
NEAR TERM...CCG/BTC
SHORT TERM...CCG
LONG TERM...RF
AVIATION...CCG/RF
MARINE...CCG/RF


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