Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Newport/Morehead, NC

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FXUS62 KMHX 231414
AFDMHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
ISSUED BY NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
1014 AM EDT THU OCT 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
DEEP LOW PRESSURE OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST LIFTS SLOWLY
NORTHEAST AND AWAY FROM THE AREA TODAY. MEANWHILE HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST THROUGH FRIDAY. A DRY COLD FRONT WILL MOVE
THROUGH THE AREA SATURDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE AREA
LATE SATURDAY AND REMAIN THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
STUBBORN SC DECK NORTH OF CAPE HATTERAS EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE
NEXT FEW HOURS AS VERTICALLY STACKED LOW SOUTH OF LONG ISLAND
CONTINUES TO DRIFT NE AND AWAY FROM THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON.
SUBSIDENCE IN THE WAKE OF THE DEPARTING UPPER LOW WILL SUPPRESS
MOST DIURNAL CLOUD DEVELOPMENT RESULTING IN A MAINLY SUNNY SKY.
PRESSURE GRADIENT AROUND DEPARTING LOW WILL KEEP AIRMASS WELL
MIXED WITH GUSTS TO 30 MPH EASTERN SECTIONS NEXT SEVERAL HOURS
WITH SLOWLY DIMINISHING WINDS AFTER 20Z. 12Z DATA SUPPORTS HIGH
TEMPERATURES IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY/...
MULTI LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS INTO THE AREA TONIGHT WITH MAINLY CLEAR
SKIES AND CALM/LIGHT WINDS LEADING TO GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING.
EXPECT LOWS RANGING FROM NEAR 40 FOR THE NORMALLY COOLEST INLAND
LOCATIONS TO LOW TO MID 50S AT THE BEACHES WITH A LIGHT WIND OFF
WARM WATER.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 330 AM THURSDAY...MODELS REMAIN IN GOOD AGREEMENT AND
CONSISTENT WITH PREVIOUS FORECAST DURING THE EXTENDED PERIOD. WEAK
RIDGING SURFACE AND ALOFT ACROSS AREA FRIDAY IN BETWEEN DEPARTING
UPPER LOW TO THE NORTHEAST AND A CLIPPER SHORT WAVE DIVING IN FROM
NORTHWEST LATE FRIDAY NIGHT. THE SHORT WAVE WILL AID IN A DRY COLD
FRONT PASSAGE EARLY SUNDAY...FOLLOWED BY MORE HIGH PRESSURE AND
DRY CONDITIONS SUN NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. TEMPS NEAR NORMAL THROUGH
MONDAY WITH LOWS IN 40S EXCEPT 50S OBX AND HIGHS AROUND 70...THEN
WARMING TO 5-10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL BY TUESDAY INTO MID WEEK AHEAD
OF ANOTHER COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE WEST.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY/...
HIGH CONFIDENCE IN PREVAILING VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE PERIOD.
SKIES WILL BE MAINLY CLEAR WITH FEW-SCT DIURNAL SC TODAY. NW
WINDS AGAIN BECOMING GUSTY (TO 18-20 KTS) SHORTLY AFTER SUNRISE
AND CONTINUING THRU MID AFTERNOON BEFORE BEGINNING TO DIMINISH.

LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 330 AM THURSDAY...PREDOMINANT VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED
THROUGH THE LONG TERM. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE WEST
THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH AN OVERALL DRY AIRMASS THUS DO NOT EXPECT
REDUCTIONS IN VSBY OR CEILINGS...ALTHOUGH CANNOT COMPLETELY RULE
OUT BRIEF RADIATION FOG IN LOW SPOTS AND RIVER VALLEYS IN THE
EARLY MORNINGS DUE TO LARGE WATER/LAND TEMP CONTRASTS.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR THE SOUNDS TODAY AND
FOR THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL COASTAL WATERS INTO FRIDAY.

MODERATE TO STRONG NW WINDS CONTINUE THIS AFTERNOON IN THE WAKE
OF DEPARTING DEEP LOW PRESSURE TO THE NE. WINDS GRADUALLY DECREASE
BY MID TO LATE AFTERNOON AND THE SLOW DIMINISHING TREND WILL
CONTINUE THRU TONIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST.
SEAS WILL BE SLOW TO SUBSIDE AND WILL LIKELY NEED TO KEEP SCA FOR
SEAS GOING INTO FRIDAY.

LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 330 AM THURSDAY...WINDS AND SEAS WILL DIMINISH FRIDAY WITH
MID-ATLANTIC SURFACE LOW MOVING WELL NORTHEAST OF THE WATERS.
EXTENDED THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR THE WATERS NORTH OF DIAMOND
SHOALS FRIDAY UNTIL MID AFTERNOON...MAINLY FOR LINGERING SEAS
AROUND 6 FT FOR THE OUTER FRINGES OF THE COASTAL WATERS. WINDS
AND SEAS WILL INCREASE AGAIN LATE SAT THROUGH SUNDAY WITH ANOTHER
DRY COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH FROM NORTHWEST...THEN DIMINISH AGAIN
MONDAY.

BLEND OF PREVIOUS FORECAST WITH LATEST SWAN/NWPS AND WAVEWATCH FOR
SEAS. SEAS WILL SUBSIDE TO 3-5 FT FRIDAY AFTERNOON THEN 2-3 FT BY
SATURDAY. HEIGHTS BUILDING AGAIN TO 3-5 FT SATURDAY NIGHT AND
SUNDAY WITH THE DRY COLD FRONT PASSAGE...THEN SUBSIDE MONDAY
THROUGH MIDWEEK.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR AMZ130-
     131-135-156.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 3 PM EDT FRIDAY FOR AMZ150-152-154.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BTC
NEAR TERM...BTC/MPR
SHORT TERM...BTC
LONG TERM...DAG
AVIATION...BTC/DAG
MARINE...BTC/MPR




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