Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Newport/Morehead, NC

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FXUS62 KMHX 240131
AFDMHX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC
931 PM EDT Sat Sep 23 2017

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure will extend into the area through Monday.
Hurricane Maria is expected to track slowly off the east coast
early to mid next week. A cold front will cross the area late next
week. Please see the latest official forecasts from the National
Hurricane Center and local NWS offices.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
As of 930 PM Saturday...Fcst on track with no changes planned.

Prev disc...High pressure will continue to build south over
Eastern NC tonight with mostly clear skies. Winds west of
Highway 17 could decouple which would lead to patchy fog
development late. Further east, the pressure gradient will
tighten producing a light northerly breeze inhibiting fog
formation. Lows will be in the mid to upper 60s inland and low
70s beaches.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM SUNDAY/...
As of 310 PM Saturday...Continued dry and warm with mostly
sunny skies Sunday as high pressure remains over the area.
Winds will increase, especially along the coast, as the
gradient between high pressure to our north and Maria off the SE
coast will be stronger. Highs again will be in the lower to
middle 80s.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 315 PM SATURDAY...THE BIG PLAYER IN THE FORECAST FOR THE WEEK
AHEAD WILL BE HURRICANE MARIA TRACKING OFF THE COAST. THERE REMAINS
HIGH UNCERTAINTY WITH THE EXACT TRACK OF THE STORM, BUT THERE HAS
BEEN AN INCREASING CHANCE THAT THERE WILL BE SOME SIGNIFICANT
IMPACTS ALONG THE COAST. EASTERN NC RESIDENTS AND INTERESTED PARTIES
SHOULD CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE LATEST OFFICIAL FORECASTS FROM NHC.

SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE AND UPPER
RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD IN FROM THE NORTH EARLY NEXT WEEK, AS
THE REMNANTS OF JOSE WEAKENS WELL OFF THE NE COAST. EXPECT SUNDAY
NIGHT TO BE PREDOMINATELY DRY, BUT COULD SEE SOME SHOWERS PUSHING
ONSHORE AS EARLY AS MONDAY AS MARIA LIFTS NORTH OFF THE SOUTHEAST
COAST. EXPECT SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 80S
INLAND TO UPPER 70S ALONG THE COAST. MONDAY NIGHT LOWS EXPECTED IN
THE UPPER 60S COASTAL PLAIN TO LOW TO MID 70S ALONG THE COAST.

TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...HURRICANE MARIA IS CURRENTLY FORECAST
TO SLOWLY LIFT NORTH OFF THE SE COAST THROUGH MID WEEK. EVENTUAL
TRACK WILL BE DETERMINED BY SEVERAL FACTORS INCLUDING THE
STRENGTH OF THE UPPER RIDGE AND THE TIMING OF A SHORTWAVE TROUGH
AND ATTENDANT COLD FRONT EXPECTED TO PUSH ACROSS THE MID-
ATLANTIC STATES MID TO LATE WEEK. IT IS STILL TOO SOON TO
DETERMINE SPECIFIC IMPACTS FOR EASTERN NC, WHICH WILL BE VERY
DEPENDENT ON THE TRACK/HOW CLOSE TO THE COAST IT GETS. THERE IS SOME
FAIR AMOUNT OF SPREAD IN THE MODELS, BUT SOME, LIKE THE GFS BRING A
STRONG MARIA CLOSER TO THE COAST.  REGARDLESS OF THE EXACT TRACK,
ROUGH SURF AND DANGEROUS RIP CURRENTS ARE LIKELY THROUGH MUCH OF
NEXT WEEK, AS LARGE LONG PERIOD SOUTHEAST SWELLS BUILD.

AT A MINIMUM, COASTAL AREAS CAN EXPECT GUSTY N/NW WINDS CLOSE TO
TROPICAL STORM FORCE, MINOR COASTAL FLOODING, AND OCEAN
OVERWASH/EROSION WILL BE ALSO POSSIBLE, WITH THE GREATEST THREAT
ALONG THE OUTER BANKS. AT THIS POINT CAN`T RULE OUT MORE IMPACTFUL
COASTAL FLOODING FOR THE SOUTHERN PAMLICO SOUND AND SOUND SIDE OF
THE OUTER BANKS AND OCRACOKE.  RESIDENTS IN LOW LYING VULNERABLE
AREAS SHOULD CLOSELY MONITOR THE FORECAST.

CONTINUE SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE POPS THROUGH MID WEEK, HIGHEST
EASTERN SECTIONS. THE NEXT FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL APPROACH THE AREA
LATE WEEK AIDING TO MARIA PUSHES FURTHER ENE OFFSHORE.
TEMPS THROUGH THE PERIOD, NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL WITH
HIGHS IN THE 80S AND LOWS IN THE MID 60S/LOW 70S.

&&

.AVIATION /01Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Short Term /Through Sunday/...
As of 645 PM Saturday...VFR will cont to dominate with poss of
a period of sub VFR late tonight in patchy fog and stratus. Very
light NE wind and poss some high clouds shld limit fog threat
to deep inland and mainly light so cont with high end MVFR vsbys
deep inland. Closer to cst much of the guidance indicates a
deck of lower clouds in IFR to MVFR range spreading onshore and
poss reach ern TAF sites. For now will keep any cigs in MVFR
range closer to coast. Any fog and low clouds shld dissipate in
the morn with VFR rest of the day.

Long Term /Sunday night through Thursday/...
As of 315 PM Saturday...VFR conditions will dominate through
Mon, though some early morning FG/BR and low stratus may develop
each night as a ridge of high pres will be across the region.
Periods of sub-VFR poss Tue into Thu with isold to sct showers
pushing onshore as Maria lifts toward the region.

&&

.MARINE...
Short Term /Through Sunday/...
As of 930 PM Saturday...Fcst on track with swells from Maria
keeping seas elevated.

Prev disc...Hurricane Maria swell will continue to impact the
NC waters through Sunday. Current 5 to 8 ft seas will build to 6
to 10 ft overnight and 7 to 13 ft Sunday. Light northerly winds
through this evening will increase out of the northeast
overnight to 10 to 20 kts and to 15 to 25 kts (highest southern
waters) Sunday, as the gradient increases over the waters
between high pressure to our north and Maria well off the SE
coast.

Long Term /Sunday night through Thursday/...
As of 315 PM Saturday...High pres centered over the Great Lakes
will build down into the SE through the period, while Hurricane
Maria lifts N off the SE coast. Increasing uncertainty conts
regarding the track of Maria as it approaches the region as
latest model guidance conts a westward trend closer the the NC
coast as well as conts to slow it down. Mariners and interested
parties should cont to monitor the latest official forecasts
from NHC. SCA cont for all coastal waters thru the period.

Based on the latest forecast, N/NE winds increase to 15-25 kt
Sunday Night thru Tue as Maria lifts northward, increasing to
25 to 30 kt on the cusp of trop storm force Tue Night thru Wed.
The GFS showed significantly stronger winds, but did not buy
off on that at this time. Winds will begin to decrease slowly as
Maria pulls away from the coast Wed Night into Thu. There will
be a long period of very dangerous boating conditions Tue
through Wed, with seas peaking close to 20 ft in our coastal
waters, and could be possibly higher depending on how Maria
behaves.

Dangerous high surf, at least minor overwash, and dangerous rip
currents are almost a certainty.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...Beach Hazards Statement through Sunday evening for NCZ095-098-
     103-104.
     High Surf Advisory from 6 AM Sunday to 8 PM EDT Monday for
     NCZ095-098-103-104.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 8 AM EDT Thursday for AMZ150-152-
     154-156-158.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JME
NEAR TERM...RF/JME
SHORT TERM...JME
LONG TERM...RSB
AVIATION...RSB/RF
MARINE...RSB/RF/JME



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