Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Newport/Morehead, NC

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FXUS62 KMHX 191921

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC
221 PM EST Fri Jan 19 2018

High pressure will move east through the southeast states this
weekend. A cold front will pass through Tuesday. High pressure
will build in behind the front Wednesday and Thursday.


As of 215 PM Fri...High pres will continue to the S tonight with
very dry airmass keeping skies clr. Appears will have enuf of a
gradient to keep winds from completely decoupling. Will cont
with lows 25 to 30 inland with 30s beaches.


As of 215 PM Fri...Surface ridge continues to the S with light
to moderate WSW flow over region. Very dry air conts over the
area keeping skies mainly sunny. Increasing thicknesses will
lead to highs 60 to 65 SW to mid to upr 50s NE where any
lingering snow will likely melt.


As of 3 am Friday...A stretch of quiet and milder weather is
expected for the next several days. Other than a frontal system
bringing some rainfall Monday night and Tuesday, no
precipitation is anticipated for the extended period at this

Saturday Night through Sunday...Weak surface high pressure and
rising mid-level heights will lead to some milder temperatures
for the weekend as low-level flow will be SW/W. Model guidance
showing high temperatures into the lower 60s for Sunday. Still
chilly for Saturday night with lows in the low to mid 30s.

Monday through Tuesday...Good agreement among the medium range
models as closed upper low moves across the Great Lakes pushing
a cold front across the region late Monday night and Tuesday
morning. Most of Monday should remain dry, but precipitable
waters jumps to nearly 1.5 inches Monday night into early
Tuesday. Have continued the high chance PoPs Monday night into
Tuesday, but current QPF totals are expected to be low, less
than one-tenth of an inch in most areas with perhaps a quarter-
inch on the Outer Banks. Milder overnight lows expected Monday
night with lows upper 40s to lower 50s, followed by highs around
60 on Tuesday.

Monday through Tuesday...A cold front will approach Mon
bringing a threat of showers to area by evening. More widespread
showers are expected Monday night as the front moves into the
area. Increased pops to high chance Mon night. Mild
temperatures will continue ahead of the front with highs in the
lower to middle 60s expected Mon. The front is now forecast to
cross the area Tuesday morning so will include low chance PoPs.
Temps will continue mild with highs in the low 60s.

Wednesday and Thursday...Behind the cold front, a return to dry
and seasonable temperatures as strong high pressure builds east
from the Desert Southwest. Anticipate high temperatures in the
50s and lows in the 30s for mid to late week.


Short Term /through Sat/...
As of 1215 PM Fri...High confidence in VFR thru the period.
High pres will cont to the SW/S thru the period with very dry
airmass over the area. Expect clr skies to cont. Good temp/dewpt
spread and light WSW low lvl flow shld preclude any fog from
developing tonight.

Long Term /Saturday Night through Tuesday/...
As of 3 am Friday...VFR conditions are expected for Sunday and
most of the day Monday. Increasing moisture ahead of a cold
front will lead to scattered showers, especially late Monday
night through about midday Tuesday. Some periods of sub-VFR
conditions are possible.


Short Term /through Sat/ ...
As of 215 PM Fri...High pres to the S will lead to light to ocnl
moderate WSW flow thru the period. Lingering 5 ft seas outer
central wtrs expected to reach 4 ft this evening and seas shld
cont in the 2 to 4 foot range thru Sat morn...then may see some
5 foot seas develop late Sat central wtrs. Winds will be mainly
10 to 20 kts with the higher speeds outer central and srn wtrs.

Long Term /Saturday night through Tuesday/...
As of 3 am Friday...A decent gradient on Saturday night over
the central waters will lead to SW/W winds of 15-20 knots with
seas 3-5 feet. Elsewhere, expect SW winds of 10-15 knots with
seas 2-4 feet. Relatively quiet marine conditions are expected
Sunday into Monday with S/SW winds 5-15 knots with seas 2-4
feet. Small Craft Advisory conditions are expected to develop in
advance of the cold front Tuesday over the central waters with
gusty SW winds and building seas.




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