Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Newport/Morehead, NC

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FXUS62 KMHX 280758

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC
358 AM EDT Sun May 28 2017

A weak frontal boundary will across northern sections this
morning and lift back north this evening. A cold front will
drift in Monday night and become stationary along the coast
through the end of the next week.


As of 330 AM Sunday...Short wave energy moving across in
westerly flow aloft combined with good instability and moderate
deep level shear expected to produce better coverage of tstms
across area, mainly this afternoon and evening. Slight risk of
severe for entire area with a few storms possibly producing
damaging winds and large hail. Forecast will indicate highest
POPs of 20% coast to 40% northern sections this afternoon, but
some activity is possible over western and northern sections
early this morning. Remnant of MCS that moved into mountains
overnight now pushing into piedmont and current track would have
it affecting coastal plains 6-8 AM. Most meso models weaken this
activity significantly as it approaches but enough support for
20% POP coastal plains 6-8 AM, and western and northern sections
8-11 AM.

Surface boundary may push across Albemarle Sound region early
this morning and could be focus for convective development this
afternoon. Most of area expected to remain in warm sector with
morning debris cloudiness diminishing this afternoon. Max temps
near 90 again for southern inland sections while weak front will
keep northern Outer Banks around 80.


As of 330 AM Sunday...Frontal boundary will lift back north this
evening but on-going scattered convective activity expected to
persist into evening with continued short wave energy. Models
continue to indicate best coverage over northern sections and
will forecast 30% POPs south to 50% north. Activity expected to
diminish overnight and/or move off coast, thus just a lingering
20% inland to 30% coast for POPs after 2 AM. Min temps remaining
muggy around 70.


As of 330 AM Sunday...Did not make any significant changes to the
extended period forecast with this update. An unsettled pattern will
be the rule through the extended period as shortwaves/disturbances
move through the region aloft, with a weak front lingering across or
near the area. These features will lead to continued low confidence
through the period due to timing and exact locations of
shortwaves/frontal boundaries across area.

Monday-Monday Night...Expect a mostly dry start to the day Monday
with increasing chances of convection in the afternoon associated
with an approaching shortwave. There will also be a weak front
approaching the area. GFS/ECMWF forecast soundings indicate MUCAPE
values of 1500-2500 with deep layer shear (0-6km) increasing to near
50 KT, thus concern for strong to severe storms remains. SPC
continues to keep the area in a Slight Risk of severe for their Day
2 Outlook. Kept PoPs in 30 to 40 percent range in the afternoon and
into the overnight. Guidance indicates max temps 90-94 inland, with
mid to upper 80s along the coast. Lows Monday night remaining muggy

Tuesday-Tuesday night...The frontal boundary is expected to
stall across the area Tuesday morning, and wash out across area
with additional short wave energy resulting in another period
of mainly diurnally driven showers and thunderstorms. Tuesday
afternoon convection could be similar to or exceed Monday`s
activity, mainly because of better moisture focused along the
stalled front and channeled shortwave/vorticity over the region
coincident with peak afternoon heating. More cloud cover and
lower thicknesses will keep max temps mainly in the 80s. Lows
Tuesday night 66-70 inland to lower 70s coast. SPC has the entire
area again under a slight risk of severe for their Day 3 Outlook
with continued instability and shear.

Wednesday-Saturday...Low confidence for this forecast period due to
poor model continuity. Generally only made minor tweaks following
closely with WPC preferences. The 00Z GFS continues the wet trend
for Wednesday and Wednesday night, though the ECMWF still suggests
the stalled boundary may be farther offshore. Drying trend for
Thursday looks good with front off coast. Higher chance PoPs for
Friday with front lifting back north, helping to focus moisture over
the area through Saturday. Max temps generally in the mid 80s
through the period. Lows from mid 60s to lower 70s.


Short Term /through 06Z Monday/
As of 145 AM Sunday...VFR expected through TAF period outside of
scattered TSTMS this afternoon and evening. Weak frontal
boundary will stall just north of TAF sites this morning and
then return north this evening, with TAF sites remaining in warm
sector. Latest meso models indicate remnant convective activity
now moving into NC foothills region may hold together and affect
northern sections around 16Z-18Z. Then additional scattered
activity likely with stronger short wave moving west to east
over area after 21Z and weakening after 02Z. Brief periods of
sub-VFR will accompany any stronger showers/tstms that affect
TAF sites.

Long Term /Monday through Thursday/
As of 330 AM Sunday ...Expect periods of sub-VFR with
convective activity each afternoon and evening from Monday
through Thursday. Less coverage for Thursday.


Short Term /through Tonight/
As of 330 AM Sunday...most of area will continue to see SW winds
10-15 KT through tonight but northern waters expected to see
period of shifting winds mainly 10 KT or less today with weak
frontal boundary stalled over area. This boundary will lift back
north this evening with winds shifting back to S-SW. Tightening
of pressure gradient will lead to period of SW winds 15-20 KT
over southern half of waters this afternoon into evening,
diminishing back to 10-15 KT overnight.

Seas over northern waters expected to remain around 2 feet due
to light winds. Southern waters will see heights 3-4 feet early
subside to 2-3 feet this morning, then build to 3-4 feet again
late afternoon into evening.

Long Term /Monday through Thursday/
As of 330 AM Sunday...The period will experience zonal flow
with weak disturbances aloft and a front lingering near or into
the area. Specifics are difficult to forecast with regard to the
frontal location. Do not have much confidence to times that
occurs, exept that by Thursday the front should push through at
least the northern waters for a brief period. The southern half
of waters will mainly see SW winds 5-15 knots during period but
northern waters will see some periods of shifting winds but with
speeds less than 15 knots. Southern waters will see some
periods of seas building to 4 feet for outer portions with
stronger SW winds around 15 knots, otherwise seas mainly 2-3
feet during the extended period. NWPS and Wavewatch in good
agreement through the medium range, with Wavewatch appearing
reasonable for the extended seas forecast.




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