Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Newport/Morehead, NC

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FXUS62 KMHX 202257

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC
657 PM EDT Thu Jul 20 2017

Offshore high pressure with an inland trough will be the
dominant weather features through the weekend producing hot and
humid conditions across the region. A weak cold front will
approach the region early next week and stall.


As of 655 PM Thursday...Not much change to the prevailing
surface pattern with Atlantic high pressure and an inland trough
of low pressure which is forecast to continue through the
weekend as upper ridging extends eastward over the region. The
isolated showers have dissipated and with the loss of heating
this evening, not expecting any additional redevelopment
overnight. Skies will become mostly clear but winds are expected
to increase overnight which will produce slightly warmer
overnight lows ranging from the low 70s inland to the mid/upper
70s along the coast.


As of 3 PM Thursday...The mid to upper level ridge will continue to
build in, while at the surface, the Piedmont trough inland and high
pressure off the SE coast. An increase of precip water values
between 1.75-2.00 inches by Friday evening which could lead to
isolated showers and thunderstorm late Friday afternoon, but
forecast soundings are showing dry conditions below 850 mb. At this
time will hold off the mention of showers as it can be very

Overall, the main story is the increase heat across the region.
Guidance is in agreement with our local low level thickness study
with high in the mid to upper 90s inland and upper 80s/low 90s along
the beaches. Will hold off in issuing a Heat Advisory as dewpoint
temps will be in the low 70s along the coastal plains, meanwhile the
coastal counties look marginal. Will let the midnight shift to


As of 315 PM Thu...No significant changes with this forecast
issuance as models remain in good agreement and continuity. Main
issue during period will be the potential for several days of
dangerous heat and humidity for the area with highs well into
the 90s and Heat Index values of 105+ degrees this weekend as an
upper ridge extends east into the area. Chances for rain this
weekend will also be minimal (only 20%) during the afternoon and
evening hours. Much better chance of showers/storms arrive
early next week as a trough and cool front move in.

Saturday through Sunday...20/12Z global model suite remain in
good agreement with extending the west-central upper ridge
eastward into the Mid Atlantic/Southeast states. This pattern
will lead to increasing temps and humidity with below normal
convective coverage through the weekend. What activity there is
should be diurnally driven in the late afternoon and early
evenings although will have to be on the outlook for possible
upstream MCS development which may skirt the northern tier. SPC
has NE NC in marginal severe risk for late Sat due to this
possibility but most guidance currently keeps thunderstorm
threat north of Albemarle Sound, thus will continue advertising
no higher than a 20 pop through the weekend, mainly across
interior zones.

12Z ECMWF/GFS/CMC in good agreement with low level thicknesses
around 1435-1440 meters Sat-Sun. This will support max temps
easily reaching the mid 90s each day. With dewpoints forecast to
be in the 70s, critical Heat Index values AOA 105 degrees are
expected Sat and Sun afternoons.

Forecast max temps will generally be at least 5 degrees below
record highs at most sites during period, with the exception of
KHSE and KNCA where forecast is within 3 degrees of records
mainly Sat-Sun. See Climate section below for details.

Monday through Wednesday...Ensemble height fields indicate a
lowering of heights/thicknesses beginning as early as Monday,
and especially into Tuesday as elongated ridge gets suppressed
due to amplification of eastern CONUS long wave trough. This
will likely put an end to the very hot and humid pattern, and
lead to increasing shower/storm chances. The ECMWF is quite
moist as it is advertising layer mix ratios as high as 17 g/kg
with excellent streamline moisture convergence across the
region, indicating another potential heavy rain threat


Short Term /Through Friday/...
As of 655 PM Thurs...VFR conditions are expected for most of
the TAF period as a drier pattern continues across eastern NC
due to the presence of an upper ridge. Can`t rule out some
patchy low clouds developing late tonight but expecting too much
low level mixing for fog. There is not a strong enough signal
in the guidance to include low clouds in the forecast with only
1 model indicating this. Another mainly dry day is expected on
Friday, with only isolated convection possible in the afternoon.

Long Term /Friday Night through Tuesday/...
As of 315 PM Thursday...VFR expected to prevail most of the
period with return of offshore high/inland trough pattern. The
weekend looking dry with just a very small chance (20%) of an
afternoon or evening storm. There will also be occasional brief
sub- VFR conditions during the early morning hours with the
threat for low stratus and/or fog. Better chances for
showers/storms arrive early next week with sub VFR as a front
moves into the area.


Short Term /Through Friday/...
As of 655 PM Thursday...Stagnant pressure pattern to continue
across the waters through Friday with S/SW flow 10 to 15 kt
expected. Seas will be 2-3 ft this evening and then increase to
2-4 ft late tonight and tomorrow.

Long Term /Friday Night through Tuesday/...
As of 315 PM Thu...No significant changes to previous forecast
thinking. The flow is expected to increase to SW 10 to 20 kt
across the marine domain on Sat with Atlantic offshore high
pressure and a weak inland trough of low pressure influencing
the wind pattern. Seas are expected to increase to 3-4 ft with
some 5 footers possible over the outer waters Saturday. Latest
models have SCA winds/seas developing as early as Sat night and
continuing through late Sunday as SW gradient further tightens.
Used a blend of NWPS/WWIV as the NWPS appears a bit too high on
wave heights.


Record Max Temps for 07/21 (Fri)

Location        Temp/Year
New Bern        103/1952  (KEWN ASOS)
Cape Hatteras    94/1977  (KHSE ASOS)
Greenville      102/1977  (COOP - Not KPGV AWOS)
Morehead City    98/1987  (COOP - Not KMRH ASOS)
Kinston         106/1926  (COOP - Not KISO AWOS)
Jacksonville    100/1987  (KNCA AWOS)

Record Max Temps for 07/22 (Sat)

Location        Temp/Year
New Bern        106/1952  (KEWN ASOS)
Cape Hatteras    92/1987  (KHSE ASOS)
Greenville      102/2011  (COOP - Not KPGV AWOS)
Morehead City   100/1987  (COOP - Not KMRH ASOS)
Kinston         105/1932  (COOP - Not KISO AWOS)
Jacksonville     99/2011  (KNCA AWOS)

Record Max Temps for 07/23 (Sun)

Location        Temp/Year
New Bern        100/1952  (KEWN ASOS)
Cape Hatteras    92/1972  (KHSE ASOS)
Greenville      103/1932  (COOP - Not KPGV AWOS)
Morehead City    98/1987  (COOP - Not KMRH ASOS)
Kinston         103/2011  (COOP - Not KISO AWOS)
Jacksonville     97/1995  (KNCA AWOS)

Record Max Temps for 07/24 (Mon)

Location        Temp/Year
New Bern         99/1952  (KEWN ASOS)
Cape Hatteras    90/2016  (KHSE ASOS)
Greenville       99/2011  (COOP - Not KPGV AWOS)
Morehead City    96/1999  (COOP - Not KMRH ASOS)
Kinston         101/1952  (COOP - Not KISO AWOS)
Jacksonville     97/1995  (KNCA AWOS)




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