Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Newport/Morehead, NC

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FXUS62 KMHX 230625
AFDMHX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC
225 AM EDT Thu Mar 23 2017

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure will build in from the northwest today then slide
offshore Friday. The high will remain offshore through the
weekend with the next frontal system approaching the middle of
next week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
As of 230 AM Thu...Cold high pres will build in from the NW
with mainly clear skies. High temps will be well below normal
ranging from mid 40s NE cst to mid 50s S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT/...
As of 230 AM Thu...The strong high will remain centered near
the area leading to good radiational cooling with light winds
and mainly clr skies. Lows will range from around 30 cooler
inland spots to mid/upr 30s beaches.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
As of 230 am Thu...Used an even blend of the latest GFS and
ECMWF. High pressure off the mid-Atlantic coast will move east
as a cold front approaches from the west. A light south wind
Friday will push afternoon highs into the mid/upper 60s with
cooler upper 50s/lower 60s on the Outer Banks. Deeper southwest
flow forecast Saturday with even warmer highs reaching the
lower/mid 70s with mid 60s Outer Banks. The cold front
approaches from the west Sunday but deeper moisture lifts out to
the north of the area during the day so will only carry slight
chance PoPs. Deeper moisture in place Monday ahead of the front
so bumped up PoPs to 30% all areas. Afternoon highs even warmer
especially along the coastal plain with highs approaching 80.
Cooler along the south coast in the lower/mid 70s and Outer
Banks in the mid 60s. The front finally pushes through Tuesday
and off the coast Tuesday night. Dynamics not very impressive so
kept PoPs capped at 30%. Dry weather returns Wednesday with
surface ridge extending into the region from the Great Lakes.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
Short Term /Through Tonight/...
As of 1220 AM Thu...High confidence in mainly VFR conditions
through the TAF cycle. Mainly clr skies thru period with just
some thin high clouds from time to time. Dew pts will be slowly
increasing later tonight and could see some patchy fog late but
confidence is low so no mention in fcst.

Long Term /Fri through Monday/...
As of 230 am Thu...
VFR through Saturday night, then sub-VFR in isolated
showers/tstms Sunday and in scattered showers/tstms Monday.
Surface winds will be from the SSW 5-10 knots Friday, SW 10-15
knots Saturday, S 10-15 knots Sunday and SW 10-15 knots Monday.

&&

.MARINE...
Short Term.../through Tonight/...
As of 230 AM Thu...NE winds 15 to 25 kts currently will slowly
diminish 10 to 15 kts by this evening...then become light ESE
overnight with the high centered just to the NW. Seas of 6 to 10
ft currently will subside to 4 to 6 feet late today and reach 2
to 4 feet tonight. SCA will end soon Pamlico Sound then later
today or early evening coastal waters.

Long Term /Fri through Monday/...
As of 230 am Thu...A south southwest flow is forecast through
the long term, with high pressure in the western Atlantic and a
cold front approaching from the west early next week. Speeds
will average 5-15 knots. Seas will average 2-4 feet through
Saturday night. Seas will build a bit early next week as the
front gets closer, averaging 3-5 feet north of Oregon Inlet and
south of Cape Lookout, with 4-7 feet from Oregon Inlet to
Ocracoke.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...Freeze Warning until 9 AM EDT this morning for NCZ095-098.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 5 AM EDT early this morning for
     AMZ135.
     Small Craft Advisory until 8 PM EDT this evening for AMZ152-
     154.
     Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM EDT this evening for AMZ150-
     156-158.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...RF
NEAR TERM...RF
SHORT TERM...RF
LONG TERM...HSA
AVIATION...RF/HSA
MARINE...RF/HSA


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