Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Newport/Morehead, NC

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FXUS62 KMHX 032326
AFDMHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
726 PM EDT FRI JUL 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK FRONT OVER NORTHERN NORTH CAROLINA WILL LIFT NORTH TONIGHT
AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES ACROSS TO THE NORTH. THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY
WILL SAG SOUTH AGAIN SATURDAY NIGHT THEN DRIFT NORTH OF THE REGION
SUNDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE AREA EARLY NEXT WEEK.
RAIN MAY BE HEAVY AT TIMES THROUGH SUNDAY WITH RAINFALL AMOUNTS
BETWEEN 1 TO 2 INCHES EXPECTED BY SUNDAY EVENING.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 725 PM FRIDAY...SMATTERING OF SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER
EASTERN NC EARLY THIS EVENING WITH BEST COVERAGE AND HEAVIEST RAIN
OVER NORTHERN AREAS CLOSEST WEAK SFC FRONT. WILL KEEP LIKELY POPS
THRU THE EVENING THEN ACTIVITY SHUD WANE WITH PASSAGE OF WEAK
SHORT WAVE AFTER MIDNIGHT. A FEW HEAVIER SHOWERS AND LOCALIZED
GUSTY WILL CONTINUE TO OCCUR OVER NORTHERN AREAS BUT SEVERE
WEATHER THREAT IS GREATLY DIMINISHED AS THE BNDRY LAYER STABILIZES
THIS EVENING. SW WINDS WILL HOLD TEMPS MAINLY IN UPR 70S COAST AND
LOW-MID 70S INLAND.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM SATURDAY/...
AS OF 330 PM FRIDAY...SOME DISAGREEMENT IN MODELS BUT GENERALL
APPEARS AREA WILL BE IN BETWEEN SHORT WAVES AND LOWER LVLS WILL BE
SLIGHTLY DRIER WITH W-SW FLOW AS LOW PRES MOVES OFFSHORE TO N.
KEPT POPS TO 20% FOR ISOLATED AIR MASS/SEA BREEZE CONVECTIVE
THREAT. MAX TEMPS A FEW DEGS WARMER THAN TODAY WITH LESS CLOUD
COVER...AROUND 90 INLAND AND 85-90 COAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 315 PM FRI...PERSISTENT UPPER TROF OF THE PAST SEVERAL DAYS
WILL FINALLY LIFT OUT EARLY NEXT WEEK. AT THE SAME TIME THE DIFUSE
BOUNDARY IN THE VICINITY OF THE VA/NC BORDER WILL MOVE TO THE
NORTHEAST. SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS POPS ON SUNDAY WITH GOOD MID-
LEVEL VORT ENERGY MOVING THROUGH THE FLOW ACTING ON DEEP LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE. THE BERMUDA HIGH BOTH SURFACE AND ALOFT BUILDS BACK IN
BEGINNING MONDAY ALONG THE SOUTHEAST ATLANTIC COAST WITH THE
LEESIDE TROF ALONG/JUST WEST OF THE COASTAL PLAIN. SCATTERED
MAINLY DIURNAL POPS FOR MOST OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /23Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY/...
AS OF 725 PM FRIDAY...BRIEF PERIODS OF MVFR WILL OCCUR IN THE
VICINITY OF SCTD SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS THIS EVENING BEFORE
PRECIPITATION BECOMES LESS WIDESPREAD WITH THE PASSAGE OF A WEAK
SHORT WAVE AFTER MIDNIGHT. MODEL SOUNDINGS AND NARRE PROBABILITIES
SUGGEST MORE SOLID LOW-END MVFR CEILINGS DEVELOP UNDER
STRENGTHENING NOCTURNAL INVERSION AFTER MIDNIGHT. IFR CEILINGS MAY
ALSO DEVELOP BUT WILL LEAVE OUT FOR NOW GIVEN THE LOWER POTENTIAL.
THE LOW CEILINGS WILL MIX OUT QUICKLY BY AROUND SUNRISE AS SW
WINDS PICK UP IN WARM SECTOR WITH MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED
ON SATURDAY. WINDS GUSTS TO 25 MPH FOR MUCH OF SATURDAY.

LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 315 PM FRI...VFR OUTSIDE OF CONVECTION. SCATTERED TO
NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE AT ALL 4 AREA TERMINALS SUNDAY.
BEGINNING MONDAY EXPECTING SCATTERED MAINLY AFTERNOON/EVENING
STORMS. SURFACE WINDS SOUTH SOUTHWEST 10 KNOTS OR LESS THROUGH THE
PERIOD.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 330 PM FRIDAY...DEVELOPING LOW PRES WILL MOVE ACROSS N OF
AREA TONIGHT AND THEN OFFSHORE SAT...PRODUCING TIGHTEN PRES GRAD
ACROSS WATERS. STALLED FRONT OVER NRN WATERS WILL MOVE N EARLY
THIS EVENING WITH SW WINDS INCREASING TO 20 TO 25 KT S AND 15-20
KT N. SCA CONDITIONS FOR SRN AND CENTRAL WATERS OVERNIGHT
PERSISTING THROUGH SAT. NWPS PREFERRED FOR SEAS AS IT IS IN GOOD
AGREEMENT WITH PREVIOUS FCST.

LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 315 PM FRI...IMPROVING CONDITIONS FORECAST FOR THE MARINE
ZONES. TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL LOOSENT SATURDAY NIGHT AS
BERMUDA HIGH RE- ESTABLISHES ITSELF ALONG THE SOUTHEAST COAST INTO
THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES SOUTH OF OREGON
INLET WILL EXPIRE LATE SATURDAY NIGHT. SOUTHWEST FLOW SUNDAY
THROUGH WEDNESDAY 5-15 KNOTS AND SEAS 2-4 FEET.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EDT SUNDAY FOR AMZ152-154-156.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR AMZ135.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EDT SATURDAY FOR AMZ158.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JBM
NEAR TERM...BTC/JBM
SHORT TERM...JBM
LONG TERM...HSA
AVIATION...BTC/HSA
MARINE...JBM/HSA


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