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000
FXUS63 KMKX 301700 AAA
AFDMKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
1100 AM CST FRI JAN 30 2015

.UPDATE...

SCATTERED TO BROKEN MIDDLE LEVEL CLOUDS CONTINUE TO PUSH SOUTHEAST
THROUGH THE AREA. THEY SHOULD CONTINUE TO DO SO THIS
AFTERNOON...SUPPORTED BY MESOSCALE/SYNOPTIC RELATIVE HUMIDITY
FIELDS. LIGHT WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE SOUTHWEST AND REMAIN LIGHT
LATER THIS AFTERNOON. HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO MID 20S STILL LOOK
GOOD...PER 925 MB TEMPERATURE FIELDS AND CONSENSUS SHORT TERM
MODEL BLEND.

&&

.AVIATION/18Z TAFS/...

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON...TONIGHT AND SATURDAY
ACROSS TAF SITES. SCATTERED TO BROKEN MIDDLE LEVEL CLOUDS WILL
CONTINUE TO PUSH SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE AREA THIS
AFTERNOON...BEFORE GRADUALLY SHIFTING TO THE EAST TONIGHT.

SOME SCATTERED CLOUDS MAY LINGER OVERNIGHT INTO SATURDAY...SOME
UNCERTAINTY HERE. COULD SEE A PERIOD OF MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES DURING
THIS TIME...BUT WILL STICK WITH SCATTERED CLOUDS IN TAFS FOR NOW.

LIGHT WINDS WILL BECOME SOUTHWEST BY 00Z SATURDAY...THEN GRADUALLY
INCREASE TONIGHT INTO EARLY SATURDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL BRING A
SHIFT TO THE NORTHEAST IN THE MIDDLE TO LATE AFTERNOON HOURS AT
THE EASTERN SITES...AND MADISON BY 00Z SUNDAY.

&&

.MARINE...

SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONTINUES UNTIL NOON CST TODAY. WINDS HAVE
WEAKENED QUITE A BIT THIS MORNING...AND WILL REMAIN LIGHT THIS
AFTERNOON. SUBSEQUENT WAVES OF 3 TO 5 FEET LATE THIS MORNING WILL
SUBSIDE TO 2 TO 4 FEET THIS AFTERNOON.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 330 AM CST FRI JAN 30 2015/

SHORT TERM...

TODAY AND TONIGHT...FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS HIGH.

A NORTHWEST UPPER FLOW WILL CONTINUE ACROSS SOUTHERN WISCONSIN WITH
THE MAIN UPPER JET ACROSS THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY.  THE 250 MB
JET MAX LIFTS NORTH DURING THE DAY AND REACHES SOUTHERN WISCONSIN
AROUND SUNRISE SATURDAY AT 140 KNOTS...WITH THE ENTRANCE REGION JUST
TO THE NORTHWEST.  MAINLY WEAK UPPER LEVEL CONVERGENCE UNTIL SUNRISE
SATURDAY.


DOWNWARD MOTION AT 700 MB GIVES WAY TO VERY WEAK UPWARD MOTION
TONIGHT. A BAND OF HIGHER MID LEVEL 700 MB RH MOVES ACROSS SOUTHERN
WISCONSIN AROUND NOON WITH THE HIGHER RH NEAR AND JUST NORTH OF
SHEBOYGAN TONIGHT. VERY WEAK 700 MB WARM AIR ADVECTION TODAY AND
TONIGHT WITH A LITTLE STRONGER 850 MB WARM AIR ADVECTION...
ESPECIALLY TONIGHT.

850 MB RH DRIES BY SUNRISE...BUT THE 925 MB RH IS SLOWER TO DRY...
BUT DOES SLOWLY DRY FROM THE WEST DURING THE DAY.

THE SURFACE HIGH CENTERED OVER THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY MOVES
ACROSS SOUTHERN WISCONSIN BY NOON...AND REACHES THE EASTERN GREAT
LAKES BY MIDNIGHT.

LONG TERM...

SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY... FORECAST CONFIDENCE MEDIUM.

PLAN ON QUIET WEATHER SATURDAY WITH SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE GRADUALLY
DEPARTING SOUTHERN WI. CLOUDS WILL BE INCREASING THROUGH THE DAY AND
TEMPS SHOULD RISE INTO THE LOWER 30S. WINDS WILL PRIMARILY BE OUT OF
THE SOUTHWEST TO WEST DURING THE DAY. THEN WINDS WILL SHIFT TO
NORTHEAST SATURDAY EVENING ALONG A BACK DOOR COLD FRONT.

1000-850MB WINDS WILL BECOME NORTHEAST SAT EVENING WITH HIGH RH IN
THE DENDRITIC GROWTH ZONE /DGZ/... DECENT OMEGA IN LOW LEVELS AND
SUFFICIENT DELTA-T FOR LAKE EFFECT SNOW. THE LAKE EFFECT PORTION
WILL BEGIN WITH A BROAD AREA OF LIGHT LAKE EFFECT AND THEN
TRANSITION TO A MORE FOCUSED BAND MUCH LATER IN THE EVENT... TOWARD
SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

THE SYNOPTIC SYSTEM OF INTEREST FOR SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY IS
BACK TO ITS NORTHERLY TRACK IN THE 00Z OPERATIONAL MODELS. THE ECMWF
IS NOW FURTHEST NORTH. THERE IS A CHANCE THE PRECIP AXIS COULD SLIP
BACK SOUTHWARD A BIT WITH THE 12Z RUN... THUS THE FORECAST
CONFIDENCE IS STILL MEDIUM. NONETHELESS... I RAISED POPS ACROSS ALL
OF SOUTHERN WI FOR THIS EVENT.

MOISTURE FROM A CLOSED UPPER LOW OVER THE SOUTHWEST US WILL STREAM
NORTHEAST ON THE LOW LEVEL JET SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT.
MEANWHILE... A DIGGING 500MB SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL DROP DOWN THROUGH
THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND MIDWEST... SUPPORTED BY THE RIGHT ENTRANCE
REGION OF A STRONG UPPER JET OVER THE GREAT LAKES. THE MAIN SURFACE
LOW WILL TRACK ACROSS SOUTHERN IL DURING THE DAY SUNDAY. LOOK FOR
SNOW TO SPREAD INTO FAR SOUTHERN WI AHEAD OF THE DEVELOPING SFC LOW
SATURDAY EVENING. THE SNOW WILL SPREAD FURTHER NORTH LATE SAT
NIGHT... LIKELY INTO THE NORTHERN MKX FORECAST AREA.

THE COMBINATION OF THE LAKE EFFECT/ENHANCEMENT AND THE SYSTEM SNOW
WILL LEAD TO SLIGHTLY HIGHER SNOWFALL ACCUM IN FAR SOUTHEAST WI...
ABOUT AN INCH MORE. THE TOTAL SNOWFALL AMOUNTS AT THIS TIME LOOK
LIKE THE 2 TO 4 INCH RANGE SOUTH OF A LINE FROM SHEBOYGAN TO THE
DELLS WITH HIGHEST AMOUNTS IN THE FAR SOUTHEAST. THIS WOULD HAPPEN
OVER AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF TIME... MAINLY LATE SATURDAY NIGHT
THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON.

LIGHT LAKE EFFECT SNOW MAY LINGER IN SOUTHEAST WI THROUGH LATE
SUNDAY NIGHT.

MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY... FORECAST CONFIDENCE MEDIUM.

NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL RESUME OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST. CLIPPERS
COULD BRING LIGHT SNOW TO SOUTHERN WI MONDAY NIGHT... TUE NIGHT AND
AGAIN WED NIGHT. TEMPS WILL BE SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL DURING THIS
PERIOD.

AVIATION/12Z TAFS/...

SCATTERED TO BROKEN STRATOCUMULUS AROUND 3 TO 5 THSD FT WITH A FEW
MVFR CIGS WILL GRADUALLY BECOME SCATTERED OVER MUCH OF SOUTHERN
WISCONSIN BY NOON.  A BAND OF MID CLOUDS WILL THEN MOVE ACROSS
SOUTHERN WISCONSIN THIS AFTERNOON.

MARINE...

EXPECT THE NORTH TO NORTHWEST WINDS TO SUBSIDE THIS MORNING CAUSING
WAVES TO DROP BELOW ADVISORY LEVELS BY NOON.

&&

.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL NOON CST TODAY FOR LMZ643>646.

&&

$$

UPDATE...WOOD
TODAY/TONIGHT AND AVIATION/MARINE...HENTZ
SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...MRC