Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Milwaukee/Sullivan, WI

Home | Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | Print | Product List | Glossary On
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50
000
FXUS63 KMKX 252134
AFDMKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
334 PM CST THU DEC 25 2014

.TONIGHT AND FRIDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS HIGH.

EXPECTING MAINLY MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS TONIGHT UNDER SOME
WARM ADVECTION ALOFT. BETWEEN THE WARM ADVECTION...CLOUDS...AND
SOUTHERLY WINDS...SHOULD SEE LOW TEMPS IN THE LOW TO MID 30S.
THESE LOWS WILL BE A FEW DEGREES HIGHER THAN AVERAGE HIGHS FOR
THIS TIME OF YEAR.

MILD SOUTHERLY FLOW LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL CONTINUE FRIDAY. MODELS
SUGGEST THE LOW LEVELS WILL SATURATE WEST TO EAST FROM LATER IN
THE MORNING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. THUS EXPECTING LOW CLOUDS TO
RETURN TO THE AREA. BETWEEN THE MILD SOUTHERLY FLOW AND MAYBE AT
LEAST MORNING BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS...LOOKS LIKE HIGHS MAY BE EVEN
A COUPLE DEGREES MILDER THAN TODAY.

.FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS MEDIUM.

MODELS ARE IN DECENT AGREEMENT WITH BRINGING SURFACE LOW NORTHEAST
FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS INTO AND THROUGH SOUTHERN WISCONSIN
FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY. THE NAM/GFS ARE QUICKER WITH THE LOW
TRACK THAN THE ECMWF/CANADIAN MODELS. ALL OF THE MODELS BRING A
SHOT OF WARM AIR ADVECTION AROUND 12Z SATURDAY...FOLLOWED BY THE
PASSAGE OF THE 850 MB TROUGH AT 18Z SATURDAY...THEN THE 500 MB
VORTICITY MAXIMUM SATURDAY AFTERNOON.

NAM/GFS BRING AREA OF LOW LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS RESPONSE THROUGH
THE AREA SATURDAY MORNING...WITH THE MID LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS
CLIPPING AND REMAINING MOSTLY JUST TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE AREA.
THIS IS THE BEST TIME PERIOD FOR UPWARD VERTICAL MOTION WITHIN A
SATURATED AIR COLUMN...PER AREA FORECAST SOUNDINGS.

THE NAM IS SOMEWHAT MILDER THAN THE GFS WITH TEMPERATURE
PROFILES...AND KEEPS MOST OF THE AREA ALL RAIN. THE GFS DOES COOL
THINGS DOWN ENOUGH FOR A MIX AND CHANGE TO LIGHT SNOW IN THE
NORTHWEST PORTIONS OF THE AREA SATURDAY MORNING. BLENDED THESE
SOLUTIONS WITH THE ECMWF AND CANADIAN...WHICH GIVE THIS MIX AND
CHANGE TO LIGHT SNOW IN THE NORTHWEST COUNTIES SATURDAY MORNING.

WENT WITH LIKELY POPS LATER FRIDAY NIGHT IN THE WEST...THEN ACROSS
ALL OF THE AREA SATURDAY MORNING. MIX IN THE NORTHWEST COUNTIES
LATER FRIDAY NIGHT SHOULD BECOME MAINLY LIGHT SNOW SATURDAY
MORNING...WITH ACCUMULATIONS OF UP TO AN INCH. THE REST OF THE
AREA SHOULD BE MILD ENOUGH FOR JUST RAIN OR A LIGHT MIX BEFORE
ENDING.

COLD AIR ADVECTION LATER SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT WILL BRING
DRIER AIR INTO THE AREA. THE DRY CONDITIONS WILL LINGER INTO
SUNDAY. TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE MORE SEASONABLE FOR THIS TIME OF
YEAR ON SUNDAY.

.SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS MEDIUM.

THE GFS AND ECMWF ARE SHOWING THAT THE OVERALL 500 MB PATTERN MAY
SHIFT TO A MORE NORTHWESTERLY FLOW REGIME BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT
WEEK. THIS SHOULD SIGNAL A TREND TOWARDS COLDER TEMPERATURES
DURING THIS PERIOD.

A PASSING 500 MB VORTICITY MAXIMUM AND SURFACE COLD FRONT MONDAY
INTO MONDAY NIGHT MAY BRING LIGHT SNOW...SO LEFT LOW POPS GOING
FOR NOW. ANOTHER SYSTEM ON NEW YEARS DAY MAY BRING SOME LIGHT
SNOW...AND LEFT POPS GOING THERE. CONSENSUS MODEL TEMPERATURES DO
TREND TO NEAR TO SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL BY THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION/00Z TAFS/...

VFR CONDITIONS HAVE FINALLY RETURNED TO SOUTHERN WISCONSIN. THINK
THE NAM BRINGS LOW CLOUDS BACK TOO QUICKLY TONIGHT...SO EXPECTING
VFR TO PERSIST THROUGH THE NIGHT.

MOST MODELS DO SHOW THE LOW LEVELS SATURATING WEST TO EAST FROM
LATER FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. THUS EXPECTING LOW
CLOUDS TO EVENTUALLY RETURN TO THE AREA.

&&

.MARINE...

WINDS CONTINUE TO SLOWLY EASE THIS AFTERNOON...WITH LIGHTER WINDS
EXPECTED TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY.

&&

.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

$$

TONIGHT/FRIDAY AND AVIATION/MARINE...DDV
FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...WOOD


USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.