Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Marquette, MI

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FXUS63 KMQT 281118

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Marquette MI
718 AM EDT Fri Jul 28 2017

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 347 AM EDT FRI JUL 28 2017

Low impact weather expected through the short-term forecast.

A surface ridge will continue to build across the area as upper-
level ridging moves in aloft. This will keep conditions dry, skies
mostly clear and temperatures near normal today and tonight. Lake
breezes will be the main wind driver during the afternoon and early
evening hours. High temperatures this afternoon will warm into the
upper 70s to low 80s, except cooler along the Great Lakes
shorelines. Overnight lows will drop into the 40s inland as skies
remain clear and winds remain light.

.LONG TERM...(Saturday through Thursday)
Issued at 307 AM EDT FRI JUL 28 2017

Overall, the upper-air pattern looks to remain out of the north-
northwest through next week with quiet weather expected through much
of the weekend. Better chances for precipitation don`t look like
they will arrive until late Tuesday into Wednesday as a cold front
pushes across Upper Michigan.

This weekend through the beginning of the work week as high pressure
dominates expect pleasant weather to prevail. Saturday through
Monday, high pressure will gradually drop south which will allow
winds to become westerly across the area. This will allow
downsloping winds across central Upper Michigan and temperatures to
warm through a bit each day. Saturday temperatures will generally be
in the upper 70s to low 80s; whereas by Monday high temperatures are
expected to warm into the low to uppers 80s. Saturday night looks to
be the coolest night as high pressure remains directly overhead.
Otherwise, low temperatures will fairly mild into the beginning of
next week. During the afternoon hours on Monday, as a weak surface
front slides into Upper Michigan, there is a small chance a isolated
showers and perhaps a few rumbles of thunder.

Tuesday a stronger cold front is progged to push south across Upper
Michigan and bring back better chances for showers and
thunderstorms. Medium range models are in fairly good agreement with
the front arriving during peak heating hours in the afternoon and
evening hours, so expect temperatures to remain in the 80s ahead of
the front. Looks like around 1500-2000 J/kg of MUCAPE should be able
to develop out ahead of this front; however, bulk shear values look
rather weak with only 20 to 25 knots. With shear being on the weaker
side of the spectrum not anticipating severe weather, but a few
storms with pulsing updrafts look likely.

Wednesday through Friday, as a cooler post frontal airmass spread
across Upper Michigan, expect seasonable temperatures to return with
afternoon highs in the 70s and overnight lows in the 50s through the
end of the work week. We could see a few lingering showers on
Wednesday as a broad shortwave digs across the area; however,
chances at this time look rather low. Otherwise, high pressure will
settle into the region once again and bring a pleasant end to the
work week.

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Saturday morning)
Issued at 717 AM EDT FRI JUL 28 2017

Other than some patchy ground fog at KIWD, VFR conditions can be
expected at each of the TAF sites. Overnight tonight, patchy fog may
develop once again near KIWD and at possibly the KSAW TAF site, but
confidence in the fog coverage is low with this issuance.

.MARINE...(For the 4 AM Lake Superior forecast issuance)
Issued at 347 AM EDT FRI JUL 28 2017

Winds will remain below 20 knots through the forecast period as high
pressure remains over the area into Tuesday.

Upper Michigan...
Lake Superior...
Lake Michigan...


LONG TERM...Ritzman
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