Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Marquette, MI

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000
FXUS63 KMQT 141125
AFDMQT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
625 AM EST SUN FEB 14 2016

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 408 AM EST SUN FEB 14 2016

00Z RAOBS/LATEST WV IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS SHOW DEEP UPR TROF OVER
SE CANADA SLOWLY WEAKENING AND ALLOWING A SHRTWV RDG AXIS WITH 12HR
H5 HGT RISES UP TO 100M TO BRING LARGER SCALE SUBSIDENCE TO THE CWA.
SOME LK CLDS/LIGHT LES IS STILL LINGERING OVER THE TIP OF THE
KEWEENAW AND IN THE SN BELTS E OF MUNISING UNDER AREA OF H85 TEMPS
AOB -20C/LLVL NW FLOW...BUT SUBSIDENCE HAS HAD A SGNFT IMPACT ON
LIMITING THE INTENSITY OF THIS PCPN. ELSEWHERE SKIES HAVE CLEARED.
UNDER THE MOCLR SKIES ACRS THE W AND CENTRAL/PWAT NEAR 0.05 INCH OR
30 PCT OF NORMAL/LGT WINDS ASSOCIATED WITH SFC HI PRES PASSING THRU
WI...TEMPS AT SOME OF THE INTERIOR COLD SPOTS IN THAT AREA HAVE
FALLEN WELL BLO -20F. LOOKING TO THE W...THERE ARE TWO SHRTWVS OF
INTEREST. THE STRONGEST IS SLIDING ESEWD THRU THE DAKOTAS...WHILE
THE OTHER DISTURBANCE IS MOVING E INTO FAR SRN MANITOBA. DESPITE
VERY DRY LLVL AIR DEPICTED ON THE 00Z MPX RAOB... SOME LO/MID CLDS
AHEAD OF THESE SHRTWVS ARE PUSHING E THRU MN.

MAIN FCST CONCERNS IN THE SHORT TERM FOCUS ON CLD/POP TRENDS THIS
AFTN/TNGT ASSOCIATED WITH DISTURBANCES TO THE W AND INCRSG SLY FLOW/
WAA UNDER TIGHTENING PRES GRADIENT AS THE WI HI PRES SHIFTS TO THE
E. BIGGEST CONCERN IS POTENTIAL FOR SOME LES OFF LK MI WITH THE
INCRSG S WIND.

TODAY...STRONGER SRN MOST SHRTWV TO THE W IS FCST TO SLIDE TOWARD
THE LOWER LKS. SINCE ACCOMPANYING DPVA/DEEP LYR QVECTOR CNVGC IS
PROGGED TO STAY TO THE S OF UPR MI...MODELS SHOW VERY DRY MID LVL
AIR LINGERING OVER UPR MI. SOME MID LVL MSTR IS FCST TO MOVE INTO
THE WRN CWA LATER TODAY AHEAD OF THE WEAKER NRN DISTURBANCE...WHICH
IS FCST TO REACH NEAR INL BY 00Z MON. BUT DOWNSLOPE NATURE OF INCRSG
S WIND UNDER TIGHTENING PRES GRADIENT BTWN HI PRES SHIFTING TOWARD
THE MID ATLANTIC AND FALLING MSLP IN MN SHOULD KEEP THE W PCPN FREE
DESPITE THE INCRSG MID CLDS. THE SHORTER TIME GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD
AGREEMENT ON GENERATING SOME LGT LES OFF LK MI BY 18Z WITH SSE SFC-
H925 FLOW FLOWING UP THE LONG AXIS OF LK MI. WHILE THE ORIENTATION
OF THE FLOW UP LK MI AND H85 TEMPS REBOUNDING ONLY TO ARND -15C ARE
FAVORABLE...THE DRYNESS OF THE AIRMASS IN PLACE PER THE 00Z GRB RAOB
AS WELL ACYC NATURE OF THE H925 FLOW/LO INVRN BASE NEAR 4K FT AGL
AWAY FM DYNAMIC FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH TWO SHRTWVS TO THE W SHOULD
LIMIT COVERAGE OF SN SHOWERS/POPS AND ESPECIALLY SN TOTALS. WHILE A
FEW PLACES COULD PICK UP AN INCH OF SN...MOST LOCATIONS SHOULD SEE
LESS. INCRSG SUN ANGLE/A GOOD DEAL OF SUNSHINE AWAY FM THE LK CLDS
STREAMING OFF LK MI AND AHEAD OF DEEPER MID LVL MSTR MOVING IN FM
THE W SHOULD ALLOW VERY LO TEMPS THIS MRNG TO RECOVER CLOSER TO
NORMAL THIS AFTN.

TNGT...ARRIVAL OF SOME DPVA/DEEP LYR QVECTOR CNVGC IN ADVANCE OF NRN
SHRTWV TNGT IN THE PRESENCE OF PERSISTENT SLY FLOW UP THE LONG AXIS
OF LK MI AND H85 TEMPS FCST TO REMAIN AS LO AS ABOUT -13C OVER NRN
LK MI THRU 12Z MON WL ALLOW FOR SOME LK ENHANCEMENT OF THE LES IN
THE 06Z-12Z TIME TNGT. MODELS SHOW SOME SHARPER LLVL CNVGC IMPACTING
PORTIONS OF THE SE CWA AS FAR E AS THE GARDEN PENINSULA BY 12Z.
CONSIDERING THE FAVORABLE DEPTH OF THE DGZ AFTER THE ARRIVAL OF THE
DEEPER MSTR...SUSPECT SN FALL RATES COULD REACH 1-2 INCHES PER HR
UNDER THIS AXIS OF CNVGC. ALTHOUGH A GOOD NUMBER OF THE HI RES
MODELS INDICATE THIS AXIS OF LLVL CNVGC WL BE RATHER TRANSIENT...
SOME DO SHOW A SLOWER DRIFT THAT COULD RESULT IN SOME ADVY SN
TOTALS. AWAY FM THE LK MI ENHANCEMENT...ANY SN WL BE LGT...
ESPECIALLY IN AREAS OVER THE W/NW NEAR LK SUP WHERE THE S WIND WL
DOWNSLOPE. LO TEMPS TNGT WL BE MUCH WARMER THAN THIS MRNG WITH
INCRSG MSTR/STEADY SSW FLOW.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 442 AM EST SUN FEB 14 2016

...ACTIVE PATTERN WITH WINTRY MIX POSSIBLE LATE THIS WEEK...

IN THE LARGE SCALE...ENERGETIC PACIFIC JET STREAM WILL LEAD TO
ACTIVE AMPLIFIED FLOW AND CHANGEABLE WEATHER PATTERN NEXT 7-10 DAYS
ACROSS NORTH AMERICA. MAIN CHANCE OF WIDESPREAD LGT SNOW OCCURS MON
WITH LAKE ENHANCED SNOW POSSIBLE IN AREAS DOWNWIND OF LK MICHIGAN.
BETTER CHANCES OF LAKE EFFECT OFF LK SUPERIOR OCCUR TUE AFTN THROUGH
WED AS MORE COLD AIR SWEEPS OVER GREAT LAKES. NEXT STRONGER SYSTEM
WITH WARM AIR ADVECTION ARRIVES IN SOME SHAPE OR FORM THU/FRI.
WARMING ALOFT WILL LEAD TO LIQUID PRECIP AT SOME POINT THU NIGHT INTO
FRI...BUT THAT MAY BE PRECEEDED BY WIDESPREAD LIGHT TO MODERATE SNOW.
EXTENT OF PRECIP WITH THE SYSTEM IS UNKNOWN THOUGH AS MODELS DIFFER
ON WHERE STRONGEST SFC LOW AND LIFT FOR PRECIP DEVELOPS. PLENTY OF
TIME TO SORT OUT THESE DETAILS. NO MATTER HOW YOU LOOK AT IT APPEARS
A MESSY MIX OF WINTRY WEATHER WOULD OCCUR THU NIGHT INTO FRI.

ON MON...DEEP TROUGHING ALOFT FM THIS WEEKEND WILL BE GONE...BUT
SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL BE ON ITS WAY TO RE-SHARPENING TROUGHING INTO
TUE. SHORTWAVE AND SFC LOW ON LEADING EDGE OF TROUGHING WILL HELP IN
SPREADING WIDESPREAD LGT SNOW ACROSS CWA. CONVERGENT SRLY FLOW OFF
LK MICHIGAN AND SUFFICIENT OVER-WATER INSTABILITY WITH H85 TEMPS
AROUND -13C OPENS DOOR FOR LAKE ENHANCEMENT MON MORNING INTO EARLY
MON AFTN. MAJORITY OF HIGH RES QPF INDICATES NARROW BAND/S OF LAKE
EFFECT WITH POSSIBILITY OF SNOW RATES OVER 1 INCH PER HOUR HELPED
OUT BY DEEP DGZ OVER 10KFT. MOST GUIDANCE ALSO SHOWS SUCH BANDS
SHIFTING ALONG AND NOT STAYING PUT OVER ONE LOCATION. AREA MOST
FAVORED FOR LAKE ENHANCEMENT AND A FEW INCHES OF SNOW WOULD BE
MENOMINEE COUNTY INTO SOUTHERN DELTA AND SOUTHERN SCHOOLCRAFT
COUNTIES. STILL TOO EARLY TO DO ANY TYPE OF HEADLINE SINCE IT IS
UNDERTAIN WHERE HEAVIER LAKE ENHANCED SNOW OCCURS...BUT MAY NEED A
HEADLINE EVENTUALLY. WILL MENTION HEAVIER SNOW POSSIBILITY IN THE
HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK.

GENERALLY QUIET MON NIGHT INTO TUE MORNING AHEAD OF STRONGER
SHORTWAVE AND SFC LOW/TROUGH DROPPING ACROSS MANTIOBA/ONTARIO.
SOUNDINGS SHOW LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE WITH TEMPS WARMER THAN -8C SO
COULD SEE FZDZ POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY WEST CLOSER TO APPROACHING SFC
TROUGH. MAIN IMPACT OF LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE/CLOUDS WILL BE TO HELP
KEEP TEMPS IN THE MID TEENS TO LOWER 20S. A FAR CRY FM THE BITTER
COLD OCCURRING THIS MORNING. WENT TOWARD WARMER GUIDANCE ON TUE AS
IF TROUGH SLOWS SOME ON TUE...WOULD HAVE OPPORTUNITY FOR TEMPS TO
REACH LOW-MID 30S. TROUGH ARRIVES IN THE AFTN NORTHWEST THEN SWEEPS
OVER REST OF CWA BY EVENING. A BURST OF MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW ON
TROUGH AXIS SEEMS REASONABLE. THOUGH THIS WOULD BE BRIEF...ITS
ARRIVAL MAY TIME OUT WITH AFTN/EVENING COMMUTE. WILL BE SOMETHING
TO KEEP AWARE OF. LAKE EFFECT IN THE WAKE OF THE TROUGH SHOULD BE
OKAY TO START BUT AS LARGE HIGH PRESSURE QUICKLY BUILDS IN...EXPECT
IT TO BEGIN TO STRUGGLE. SOUNDINGS SHOW QUICKLY DEVELOPING
SUBSIDENCE WITH GFS POINT AT P53 /MUNISING/ SHOWING INVERSIONS OVER
6-8KFT TUE EVENING LOWERING TO 4-5KFT BY MIDNIGHT. GOOD PART OF DGZ
IS WITHIN THE LAKE CONVECTIVE LAYER...BUT SUBSIDENCE ALOFT AND QUICK
FORMATION OF ANTICYCLONIC SFC FLOW WITH THE HIGH BUILDING IN SHOULD
LIMIT LES INTENSITY. KEPT POPS HIGH...BUT QPF/SNOW QUICKLY COMES
DOWN AFT TUE EVENING. GUSTY NW WINDS 20-30 MPH WITH THE COLD AIR
ADVECTION IN BLYR SHOULD LEAD TO BLSN/LOWER VSBY AND COULD TIP THIS
TO NEEDING AN ADVY. JURY STILL OUT ON THAT THOUGH. WILL MENTION IN
THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK.

LAKE EFFECT RUNS ITS COURSE ON WED AND AS SFC RIDGE CROSSES WED AFTN
INTO WED EVENING...SHOULD SHUT DOWN ON WED EVENING WITH LOSS OF
ONSHORE FLOW. SCT MID-HIGH CLOUDS...BUT MAY BE ANOTHER CHILLY NIGHT
WITH THE RIDGE IN THE VCNTY. GIVEN THIS SETUP PROBABLY DID NOT GO
COLD ENOUGH AND LATER SHIFTS MAY NEED TO LOWER TEMPS BELOW CONSENSUS.
LOWEST GUIDANCE SHOWING MINS IN THE SINGLE NUMBERS BLO ZERO FOR THE
INTERIOR.

ATTN LATE THIS WEEK IS ON STRONG WARM AIR ADVECTION PATTERN AS SFC
RIDGE SLIDES OVER NEW ENGLAND AND STRONG SFC LOW...THANKS IN PART TO
THAT VIGOROUS PACIFIC JET STREAM MENTIONED AT THE TOP...EXPANDS OVER
FM THE CANADIAN ROCKIES TO THE NORTHERN PLAINS. COLD AIR ALOFT WILL
GIVE WAY TO H85 TEMPS ABOVE ZERO AS EARLY AS THU EVENING WITH SURGE
OF WARMER AIR /H85 TEMPS MAYBE AS WARM AS +6C/ WASHING ACROSS THE
WESTERN GREAT LAKES ON FRI. WARMING EVENTUALLY MAKES IT TO SFC WITH
HIGH TEMPS WELL INTO THE 30S IF NOT INTO LOW 40S FOR PARTS OF
WESTERN CWA. UNTIL WARMING MAKES IT TO SFC...THE WARM AIR ALOFT WILL
RESULT IN THE SNOW THAT DEVELOPS IN WARM AIR ADVECTION PATTERN THU
AFTN INTO THU NIGHT TO CHANGE TO LIQUID PRECIP FM WEST TO EAST LATE
THU NIGHT INTO FRI. PRECIP COULD BE ENHANCED DEPENDING ON STRENGTH
OF SHORTWAVE DIGGING ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT LAKES. TEMPS WILL BE ON
THE RISE BUT LINGERING COLD TEMPS NEAR SFC COULD RESULT IN FZRA AND
ICING ISSUES AT LEAST BRIEFLY FOR PARTS OF CWA. SINCE S FLOW IS
STRONG AS SEEN BY THE H85 WINDS NEAR 50 KTS INTO WI ON THU NIGHT AS
THE SFC HIGH IS MORE EAST OF HERE VERSUS NORTHEAST /LIMITING COLD
DRY EASTERLY SFC FLOW THAT WOULD TEMPER SFC WARMING/...THINK THE
WARMING AT THE SFC WILL ARRIVE PRETTY QUICKLY SO MIXED PRECIP SHOULD
CONVERT TO RAIN EVEN AT THE SFC LATER FRI MORNING INTO FRI AFTN.
WILL CONTINUE TO MENTION WINTRY MIX AND ICE POTENTIAL IN THE
HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK.

TREND IS FOR COOLER TEMPS TO RETURN NEXT SAT ONCE THE LARGE SFC LOW
AND WARM FRONT PASS TO THE EAST. JUST A SMALL CHANCE FOR SNOW
SHOWERS AT THAT TIME. CONSENSUS GUIDANCE UTILIZED FOR TEMPS WHICH
BROUGHT TEMPS BACK INTO THE 20S TO LOWER 30S.
&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 625 AM EST SUN FEB 14 2016

DRY AIR ASSOCIATED WITH A HI PRES RDG TO THE E WL BRING VFR WX TO
THE TAF SITES THRU THIS AFTN. BUT AS DEEPER MSTR ARRIVES FM THE W
AHEAD OF AN APRCHG DISTURBANCE AND THE S WIND ON THE WRN FLANK OF
THIS HI ADVECTS MORE LLVL MSTR INTO UPR MI OFF LK MI...SOME LOWER
MVFR CIGS WL DVLP OVER THE AREA TNGT. THE BEST CHANCE FOR THE LOWER
MVFR CONDITIONS AND -SN WL BE AT SAW...WHICH WL BE MORE INFLUENCED
BY THE LK MI MOISTENING. WITH A DOWNSLOPE S WIND AND ABSENCE OF LK
MI INFLUENCE...IWD HAS THE BEST SHOT TO MAINTAIN A HIER CIG LONGER.
&&

.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 408 AM EST SUN FEB 14 2016

AS THE PRES GRADIENT TIGHTENS BETWEEN HI PRES DEPARTING TO THE E AND
A LO PRES TROF APPROACHING FROM THE W...EXPECT LIGHT WINDS TODAY
OVER THE LAKE TO INCREASE TO S WINDS UP TO 30 KTS TONIGHT. THE
HIGHEST WINDS WILL OCCUR NEAR THE CANADIAN BORDER OVER THE E
HALF...WHERE A FEW GALE FORCE GUSTS TO 35 KTS ARE POSSIBLE. THESE
WINDS WILL DIMINISH ON MON UNDER A WEAKENING GRADIENT. AFTER A
PERIOD OF RELATIVELY LIGHT WINDS LATER ON MON AND MON
NIGHT...ANOTHER ROUND OF STRONG NNW WINDS THAT WILL AT LEAST
APPROACH 35 KT GALES FOR A SHORT TIME WILL DEVELOP TUE NIGHT
FOLLOWING A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE. BEST CHANCE FOR THESE GALES TO 35
KTS WILL BE OVER THE NCENTRAL AND E HALF. WINDS WILL THEN DIMINISH
WED WITH ARRIVAL OF ANOTHER HIGH PRES RIDGE. BUT STRONGER SSE WIND
UP TO 30 KTS WILL ARRIVE ON THU UNDER A TIGHTENING PRES GRADIENT
BETWEEN THIS HI SHIFTING TO THE E AND ANOTHER APPROACHING LO PRES.
&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...KC
LONG TERM...JLA
AVIATION...KC
MARINE...KC


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