Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Missoula, MT

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FXUS65 KMSO 272015

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Missoula MT
215 PM MDT FRI MAY 27 2016

.DISCUSSION...Scattered showers and thunderstorms, along with
gusty southwest winds will be the main story today and this
evening. Southwest Montana and Lemhi County in Idaho will have
the best chance for the thunderstorms. Some of these storms will
bring brief heavy rain, as well has small hail and occasional
lightning. Elsewhere in western Montana and central Idaho, will
see light scattered rain showers.

West-central Montana, the Mission and Flathead Valleys will
experience gusty southwest winds that could gusts as high as 30
mph this afternoon and evening. Area webcams along Flathead Lake
are already showing an increase in chop this afternoon and are
expected to increase slightly into this evening. Please visit the
Flathead Lake forecast page for the latest details:

After this shortwave of energy moves through the region, a cooler
and drier air mass will enter the Northern Rockies overnight
tonight. This will allow temperatures to drop into the mid to
lower 30s for some valleys of western Montana, especially so for
southwest Montana and Seeley/Swan region. Sensitive plants could
be impacted in these locations.

A relatively drier westerly flow is expected Saturday. This should
translate into temperatures a little below normal across north
central Idaho/western Montana and breezy conditions western
Montana. But another weather disturbance is expected Sunday
afternoon. This disturbance should produce a few light showers and
locally breezy conditions from roughly the Camas Prairie and
Orofino area eastward across western Montana.

A more organized weather disturbance may brush the western
Montana Sunday night into Monday. The air mass is cold enough to
support some light snow over mid to higher terrain along the
Continental Divide and a few valley rain showers as well. Breezy
and cooler conditions should also accompany this weather system
from the Camas Prairie eastward across western Montana. As this
disturbance shifts east and the air mass dries Monday night and
and Tuesday...local frost may again occur in some of the valleys.

In the longer term, model guidance is fairly consistent showing a
very warm, perhaps hot ridge of high pressure developing over the
northern Rockies. Stay tuned because this could be a "significant
change" from the cooler weather we`ve been experiencing and something
most people may not be accustom too yet.


.AVIATION...Scattered showers and thunderstorms have already begun
to develop across the region this afternoon. This is expected to
continue through the evening hours to around sunset tonight. KBTM
and KSMN will have the best chance to see thunderstorms impacting
the terminals. Thunderstorms will bring brief heavy
rain,occasional lightning, and potentially small hail. KMSO and
KGPI will likely see light rain showers, as well as gusty
southwest winds up to 25kts until around 28/0200 this evening.



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