Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Missoula, MT

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FXUS65 KMSO 271039

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Missoula MT
439 AM MDT WED MAY 27 2015


A low pressure circulation over the Northern Rockies will continue
to bring occasional shower and thunderstorm activity to the region
through Thursday. A few storms may produce some wind gusts to 35
mph and brief heavy rain. By Thursday afternoon, much of the
precipitation is expected shift southeastward and concentrated
along the Continental Divide, while north central Idaho and
northwest Montana begin to dry out. Temperatures will continue to
be fairly mild despite the cloud cover.

A weak ridge of high pressure will build on Friday and will lead
to fewer showers and warmer temperatures. Saturday will see a weak
disturbance move in and will cause light rain showers to develop
and possibly a few thunderstorms as well. Sunday afternoon will
see slightly greater instability that could lead to a few
isolated storms capable of gusty winds and pea size hail. However,
most of the storms that develop should remain over the terrain.

The weather pattern begins to shift on Monday as a closed low
offshore begins to move into the Pacific Northwest. Ahead of this
closed low, moist southwest flow will lead to increasing chances
for widespread shower and thunderstorm development on Monday
afternoon. The closed low is expected to continue to track east
and into our region by Wednesday, thus heightened precipitation
chances are forecast for the first half of next week.


.AVIATION...Showers and thunderstorms will continue to be present
around Northern Rockies terminals at times during the next 24
hours and beyond. It is difficult to say when the most specific
impactful times will be, however reduced ceilings, a few lightning
strikes, a few gusts around 25 knots, and obscured terrain will
be fairly common for daytime storms (through 28/0400Z). Thereafter,
precipitation chances decrease somewhat and most of the lightning
threat diminishes.



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