Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Missoula, MT

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FXUS65 KMSO 301947
AFDMSO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MISSOULA MT
147 PM MDT SAT AUG 30 2014

.DISCUSSION...THE POST FRONTAL ENVIRONMENT HAS PROVEN TO BE LESS
MOIST THAN PREVIOUSLY EXPECTED WITH SHOWER ACTIVITY VERY LIMITED
THIS AFTERNOON AND LARGELY LOCALIZED TO SW MONTANA AND LEMHI
COUNTY, IDAHO. THIS SHOULD CONTINUE TO BE THE CASE INTO THE
EVENING. WINDS HAVE DEVELOPED AS FORECAST THIS AFTERNOON AND WILL
REMAIN GUSTY INTO THIS EVENING. A WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE
WILL MOVE ACROSS THE NORTHERN ROCKIES TONIGHT, HELPING TO INITIATE
SOME EARLY MORNING SHOWERS ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA. THE LATEST
HIGH RESOLUTION GUIDANCE PAINTS SCATTERED SHOWERS PERSISTING FROM
KALISPELL SOUTH TO LOST TRAIL PASS, SO IT WOULD NOT BE SURPRISING
IF NUMEROUS PEOPLE WERE GREETED BY SOME LIGHT PRECIPITATION EARLY
SUNDAY MORNING. HOWEVER, HEAVY SHOWERS AND THE CHANCE FOR THUNDER
REMAIN LOW. THE CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION IS A LITTLE BETTER
TOMORROW AFTERNOON AS COMPARED TO TODAY, THOUGH STILL QUITE LOW AS
MUCH OF THE ACTIVITY WILL BE LARGELY TERRAIN BASED AND HAVE
TROUBLE STAYING TOGETHER AS IT COMES OFF THE TERRAIN.

CONDITIONS WILL BEGIN TO DRY OUT ON MONDAY, THOUGH THERE WILL
STILL BE THE CHANCE FOR SOME LIGHT AFTERNOON SHOWERS ACROSS
NORTHWEST MONTANA. THE COOLEST MORNING AND PERHAPS THE NEXT CHANCE
FOR SOME PATCHY FROST ENTERS INTO CONSIDERATION ON TUESDAY
MORNING. THE CHANCE COULD BE FAIRLY DECENT IF THE CURRENT MODEL
DEPICTION OF LESS CLOUD COVER AND WIND REMAIN. WILL CONTINUE TO
MONITOR THIS FOR FUTURE MESSAGING NEEDS.

A RATHER ROBUST UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL BEGIN TO ENTER THE REGION
ON WEDNESDAY. THIS WILL BRING THE CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION AND
AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS BACK INTO THE FORECAST. HOWEVER, THE
CHANCE APPEARS TO BE LESS EACH MODEL RUN AS THEY ARE TRENDING
TOWARDS A DRIER COLD FRONT. AT THE SAME TIME, THIS TROUGH WILL
ALSO BE FOLLOWED BY RETURN TO UNSEASONABLY COOL CONDITIONS WHICH
SHOULD PERSIST INTO THE WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION...BREEZY CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST AT ALL AIRFIELDS AND
ACROSS THE NORTHERN ROCKIES IN AN UNSTABLE, POST-FRONTAL
ENVIRONMENT. THESE GUSTY WINDS WILL START TO SUBSIDE THIS EVENING
AROUND SUNSET AND REMAIN LIGHT OVERNIGHT. A WEAK UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE WILL AID IN PRODUCING ANOTHER ROUND OF EARLY MORNING
SHOWERS WHICH MAY AFFECT CONDITIONS AT KMSO, KBTM AND KSMN THROUGH
AROUND 31/1200Z. SHOWERS AND BREEZY WINDS REMAIN IN THE FORECAST
FOR TOMORROW, THOUGH WINDS SHOULD NOT BE AS STRONG AS TODAY.

&&

.MSO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MT...NONE.
ID...NONE.
&&

$$

IV



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