Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Missoula, MT

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FXUS65 KMSO 312054
AFDMSO

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Missoula MT
254 PM MDT MON AUG 31 2015

...HIGH ELEVATION SNOW/FROST BY THE WEEKEND...

.DISCUSSION...

A relatively dry southwest flow aloft will dry and warm much of
the Northern Rockies through Tuesday. One except will be far
northwest Montana, where a few light showers and low clouds will
persist. Despite the advertisement for warming temperatures in
the near term, afternoons will remain near the seasonal average.
Open valleys and westerly exposed slopes will have some wind gusts
from the west and southwest during afternoons.

On Wednesday, winds will increase dramatically across the Northern
Rockies, with southwest flow intensifying aloft. Gusty winds will
be present in open valleys and over high terrain (particularly
along the Continental Divide). A cold front will sweep across much
of the region late Wednesday morning (northwest Montana) through
Wednesday evening (Butte/Salmon). a broad area of precipitation
will follow the cold front, bringing a good chance of measurable
rain through Thursday afternoon. Precipitation will become more
showery Thursday night through Friday, ahead of the next
significant pattern change.

This weekend a well-defined low pressure system will cross the
Northern Rockies. This system is expected to bring more cool
autumn-like temperatures, along with abundant rain and some snow
in the high terrain. Cold mornings are possible Saturday and
Sunday with potential for frost and freeze impacts. Forecast
models currently disagree how quickly the system will move
through; nevertheless, those with plans for the Labor Day weekend
should pay special attention to the forecast this week, since
details on the exact locations and amounts of precipitation are
still uncertain.

&&

.AVIATION...Mid-level clouds have begun to thin across much of the
area, with KGPI and northwest Montana being the only place
expected to keep roughly 6000 ft ceilings through the afternoon.
Other locations will see mostly clear skies with a few high
clouds. Winds will be light in valleys, but near ridge tops will
reach up to 30 kts. Precipitation should remain north in Canada
and along the border. For those headed east, mountain wave
activity is possible, as strong westerly flow moves across
perpendicular mountain ranges.

&&

.MSO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MT...None.
ID...None.
&&

$$


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