Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Missoula, MT

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FXUS65 KMSO 070929

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Missoula MT
329 AM MDT WED OCT 7 2015

.DISCUSSION...Our next system has begun to move into the region
overnight. At this time only an increase in cloud cover has
occurred, though some light showers are developing on radar just
to the west of the Camas Prairie in Idaho. Models continued to
increase the potential for these showers to become more widespread
and wet overnight than previous days. Given the subtropical
origins of this moisture, we did increase the potential for rain
and the amounts more from the past day or so, starting this
afternoon. The locations of the most precipitation expected will
be the Bitterroot Mountains and the Clearwater Mountains in Idaho.
In excess of 0.50 inch of rain is likely in these areas. One
thing that is still up in the air, is how much will the valleys
see. There is an indication that some of the valleys, such as the
Missoula/Bitterroot Valleys could be slightly shadowed out, though,
some rain will be likely. The heaviest rain will be south of I-90,
so northwest Montana will probably miss out on much of it.
However, can`t rule out some light showers in that region.

Most of the moisture will move east out of western Montana by
tomorrow morning, with only scattered mountain showers lingering
into the afternoon hours. The ridge of high pressure will build
back into place by Friday, allowing temperatures to once again
rebound to above normal.

Ahead of a cold front on Saturday, high temperatures have the
potential to be quite warm for October and possibly well into the
70s from Missoula south. Cloud cover and increased chances for
precipitation will likely keep locations north of I-90 from
reaching their full potential heating on Saturday. The next
weather system consisting of a trough and cold front will pass
through Idaho and western Montana from Saturday night through
Sunday with best chances for precipitation to be overnight
Saturday and into Sunday morning. Behind the cold front temperatures
will be around 10-15 degrees cooler on Sunday. Breezy winds are
possible ahead of the cold front on Saturday and behind the cold
front on Sunday.

A westerly flow for the beginning of the week will bring unsettled
weather with near normal temperatures.


.AVIATION...Cloud cover is moving into the region with the next
weather system. Model cross sections, along with simulated
satellite projections, show this cloud cover to lower through
today with obscured terrain and rain by this afternoon. Lowered
ceilings and rain will remain into tonight.



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