Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS San Francisco Bay Area, CA

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FXUS66 KMTR 031757
AFDMTR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA
1057 AM PDT FRI JUL 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...MOSTLY DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED TODAY AS MID-LEVEL
MOISTURE MOVES NORTHWARD AWAY FROM THE REGION. A STRONGER MARINE
INFLUENCE WILL RETURN THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH TEMPERATURES NEAR
OR SLIGHTLY BELOW SEASONAL AVERAGES THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...AS OF 9:05 AM PDT FRIDAY...WIDESPREAD CLOUDS AT THE
COAST THIS MORNING ALONG WITH SOME OF THE ADJACENT VALLEYS.
SURFACE GRADIENTS REMAINS MODERATE ONSHORE WITH THE MARINE LAYER
AROUND 1500 FEET. KMUX RADAR IS PICKING UP A COUPLE OF CELLS JUST
TO THE SOUTHWEST OF POINT REYES ALONG WITH ONE THAT MAY DRIFT INTO
NAPA COUNTY. OUTSIDE OF THAT SHOWER ACTIVITY IS FORECAST TO BE
TO THE NORTH AND EAST OF OUR AREA TODAY. HIGHS WILL BE IN THE 60S
AND 70S AT THE COAST WITH MOSTLY 80S INLAND.

AGREE WITH THE PREVIOUS SHIFT THAT QUIET WEATHER CAN BE EXPECTED
FOR THE WEEKEND THROUGH NEXT WEEK ALONG WITH TEMPS NEAR NORMAL. NO
MAJOR UPDATES PLANNED FOR THE FORECAST PACKAGE.

.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...A FEW LINGERING SHOWERS REPORTED ACROSS
THE NORTH BAY THIS MORNING WITH MID-LEVEL MOISTURE ADVECTING OVER
THE REGION TOWARD THE NORTHWEST. A WEAK MID/UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE WILL ALSO CONTINUE TO LIFT NORTHWARD AND AWAY FROM THE
REGION THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING. WITH THIS...EXPECTING DRY
WEATHER CONDITIONS ACROSS THE REGION FOR MUCH OF THE DAY AS THE
UPPER LEVEL LOW OFF OF THE CENTRAL CALIFORNIA COAST RETOGRADES
WESTWARD. MEANWHILE...THE MARINE INFLUENCE HAS MADE A RETURN WITH
LOW LEVEL CLOUDS IMPACTING COASTAL AND SOME VALLEY LOCATIONS. THE
CLOUDS SHOULD BURN-OFF OVER MOST INLAND AREAS THIS AFTERNOON WITH
TEMPERATURES WARMING INTO THE 80S TO MID 90S AWAY FROM THE
COAST/BAYS.

THE FORECAST MODELS KEEP THE MID/UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
OFF OF THE COAST THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH RIDGING OVER THE DESERT
SOUTHWEST AND GREAT BASIN. THIS WOULD SUPPORT A DEEPENING MARINE
LAYER THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH PATCHY FOG AND DRIZZLE LIKELY ALONG
THE COAST DURING THE OVERNIGHT AND EARLY MORNING HOURS.
TEMPERATURES WILL ALSO BE NEAR OR SLIGHTLY BELOW SEASONAL AVERAGES
HEADING INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE AFOREMENTIONED UPPER LEVEL LOW
IS THEN FORECAST TO SHIFT BACK TOWARD THE CENTRAL CALIFORNIA COAST
THROUGH THE MIDDLE HALF OF NEXT WEEK. THIS WILL SUPPORT A COOLING
TREND REGION- WIDE...YET MOISTURE AND ANY MID/UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT
APPEARS TO BE LIMITED WITH THIS SYSTEM. AT THIS TIME...WILL
MAINTAIN DRY WEATHER THROUGH NEXT WEEK WITH TEMPERATURES NEAR OR
SLIGHTLY BELOW AVERAGE FOR EARLY JULY.

&&

.AVIATION...AS OF 11:00 AM PDT FRIDAY... SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWING
EVACUATION OF BOTH LOW LEVEL MARINE STRATUS AND MID TO UPPER LEVEL
MONSOONAL CLOUDS. VFR CONDS AND LIGHT WINDS ARE FORECAST THROUGH
THE DAY. MARINE LAYER IS FORECAST TO DEEPEN TONIGHT AND BRING MORE
WIDESPREAD MVFR/IFR CIGS THAN THIS MORNING.

VICINITY OF KSFO...VFR WITH 10 TO 15 KT ONSHORE WINDS THIS
AFTERNOON. MVFR/IFR CIGS AFTER 10Z THROUGH AT LEAST SUNRISE
TOMORROW.

SFO BRIDGE APPROACH... SIMILAR TO KSFO WITH SLIGHTLY EARLIER
RETURN TIME OF MVFR/IFR CIGS.

MONTEREY BAY AREA TERMINALS... IFR CIGS AFTER 03-04Z TONIGHT...
WITH LIFR CIGS AND POSBL VISBYS REDUCTIONS BTWN 12-16Z SAT.
LIGHT ONSHORE WINDS.

&&

.MARINE...AS OF 10:45 AM PDT FRIDAY...LIGHT WINDS AND SEAS ARE
EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AS A WEAK
LOW LINGERS OVER THE COASTAL WATERS.

&&

.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
     .TDAY...NONE.

$$

PUBLIC FORECAST: BELL/RGASS
AVIATION: DRP
MARINE: DRP


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