734
FXUS66 KMTR 151106
AFDMTR

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Francisco CA
406 AM PDT Tue Jul 15 2025

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, MARINE...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 405 AM PDT Tue Jul 15 2025

- High temperatures will be below their seasonable averages today
   and continue through Thursday.

 - Localized elevated fire weather threat continues across the
   higher elevations.

 - Slight warming trend Friday and into the upcoming weekend.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
Issued at 405 AM PDT Tue Jul 15 2025
(Today and tonight)

Another night of stratus, but it looks healthier and more widespread
than last night. Expect stratus to continue to seep into the
interior valleys of the region over the next few hours, with the
daily retreat beginning by mid to late morning. The marine layer is
expected to be around 1500-2000feet today, which should keep a
healthier amount of stratus along the coast and perhaps immediate
coast today while interior locations clear out. Another wash, rinse,
repeat forecast is on tap for tonight with stratus, fog, and patchy
drizzle returning.

For those above the marine layer, elevated fire weather concerns
slightly warmer and dry conditions continue. RH recovery looks to
reamin poor to moderate, while winds remain onshore. Diurnally
breezy conditions are expected each afternoon/evening along the
coast, mountain gaps/passes, and along ridgetops.

&&

.LONG TERM...
Issued at 405 AM PDT Tue Jul 15 2025
(Wednesday through Monday)

Cooler weather on tap with the marine layer remaining around 1500 to
2000 feet through midweek, before compressing closer to 1200 to 1500
feet by the end of the week. This should allow for the continuation
of nighttime and morning stratus, though the extent and amount of
fog or drizzle should not be as prominent by the end of the work
week. High temperatures remain below the seasonal norm through
Thursday, with a slight warming trend kicking off Friday and into
the weekend.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 948 PM PDT Mon Jul 14 2025

Stratus and patchy fog /IFR-LIFR/ continue along the coastline
while VFR continues inland. It`s a challenging forecast tonight
and Tuesday since lower level cool air advection will begin to
weaken the lower level temperature inversion, likely increasing
the marine layer depth later on tonight and Tuesday. Onshore winds
will otherwise continue to usher stratus and fog /IFR-LIFR/ inland
tonight and Tuesday morning. Stratus mixes out to MVFR-VFR along
the coastline, inland VFR will prevail Tuesday. HREF output shows
a stratus intrusion Tuesday night and Wednesday morning.

Vicinity of SFO...West-northwest wind easing through mid to late
evening. VFR continuing through mid evening then tempo IFR 06z-10z
then IFR-MVFR prevailing until 18z Tuesday. Lower level cool air
advection will likely deepen the marine layer overnight and Tuesday.
Otherwise VFR is forecast from late Tuesday morning through early
Tuesday evening, stratus /MVFR/ then returns mid and late Tuesday
evening.

SFO Bridge Approach...Similar to SFO.

Monterey Bay Terminals...Increasing stratus and fog /IFR-LIFR/
tonight and Tuesday morning. Similar to the Bay Area, lower level
cool air advection will likely deepen the marine layer. Otherwise
VFR is forecast from late Tuesday morning through Tuesday afternoon.
Stratus /MVFR/ returns Tuesday evening and night. Mainly onshore
winds 5 to 10 knots tonight and Tuesday morning. West to northwest
winds increasing to 10 to 20 knots Tuesday afternoon. Northwest
wind gusts to 25 knots in the Salinas Valley Tuesday afternoon and
early evening.

&&

.MARINE...
(Today through Sunday)
Issued at 405 AM PDT Tue Jul 15 2025

Breezy winds and rough seas will be present through Tuesday
afternoon for the northern outer waters. After those winds and
seas ease, expect light to moderate winds through Friday with
moderate seas.

&&

.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...None.
PZ...Small Craft Advisory until 3 PM PDT this afternoon for Pt Arena
     to Pt Reyes 10-60 NM.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...KR
LONG TERM....KR
AVIATION...Canepa
MARINE...Murdock

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