Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS San Francisco Bay Area, CA

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000
FXUS66 KMTR 241558
AFDMTR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA
858 AM PDT SUN MAY 24 2015

.SYNOPSIS...WARMER WEATHER IS FORECAST TODAY AS HIGH PRESSURE
BEGINS TO BUILD NEAR THE WEST COAST. LITTLE CHANGE IS THEN
EXPECTED THROUGH TUESDAY. TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO CLIMB ABOVE
NORMAL FOR INLAND AREAS DURING THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK.
HOWEVER...COASTAL AREAS WILL REMAIN SEASONABLY COOL AS ONSHORE
FLOW PERSISTS.

&&

.DISCUSSION...AS OF 9:00 AM PDT SUNDAY...DEFINITELY LOOKS LIKE THE
POTENTIAL FOR MORE SUNSHINE TODAY AS MAY SPOTS HAVE ALREADY BROKEN
FREE OF THE CLOUDS. IN FACT...LAST FEW FRAMES ALREADY SHOWS
CLEARING WORKING ITS WAY INTO SF BAY. MARINE LAYER CAME IN A BIT
ABOVE 2000 FEET WHICH WAS AROUND 1000 LESS THAN YESTERDAY. THIS
SHOULD LEAD TO MORE SUNSHINE TODAY ESPECIALLY FOR SPOTS AWAY FROM
THE COAST. SFO-SAC GRADIENT HAS INCREASED TO OVER 2.5 MB...SO
COULD BE CHALLENGING TO GET CLEARING DOWN TO ALL OF THE BEACHES.
HIGHS WILL RANGE FROM THE 60S AT THE COAST TO 70S INLAND. IN
GENERAL...TEMPS WILL RUN 3 TO 5 AHEAD OF YESTERDAY.

AGREE WITH THE PREVIOUS SHIFT THAT THE MAIN HEADLINE FOR THE
FORECAST IS QUIET WEATHER WITH WARMER TEMPERATURES ON THE WAY AS A
RIDGE BUILDS OVERHEAD. THIS WILL LIKELY PUT AN END TO OUR RECENT
LONG STRETCH OF BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES.

.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...A SLIGHTLY DRIER AIRMASS HAS MADE ITS WAY
INTO THE BOUNDARY LAYER SINCE YESTERDAY AS AN UPPER RIDGE OFFSHORE
EDGES IN ALONG THE WEST COAST. CONSEQUENTLY...LOW CLOUD COVER IS
MUCH LESS EXTENSIVE EARLY THIS MORNING COMPARED TO THE PAST FEW
MORNINGS AND THE EXPECTATION IS THAT MOST OF OUR FORECAST AREA
WILL EXPERIENCE MORE SUN TODAY. AFTERNOON HIGHS TODAY ARE FORECAST
TO BE...ON AVERAGE...ABOUT FIVE DEGREES WARMER THAN YESTERDAY.

NOT MUCH CHANGE IS EXPECTED GOING INTO MONDAY AND TUESDAY. THE
UPPER RIDGE WILL REMAIN JUST OFFSHORE AS AN UPPER LOW DROPS SOUTH
INTO THE PAC NW. TEMPS ARE EXPECTED TO HOLD STEADY OR COOL SLIGHTLY.

THE UPPER RIDGE IS FORECAST TO FINALLY SHIFT EASTWARD BEGINNING
MIDWEEK...AND BE CENTERED OVER CA BY LATE THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.
THIS WILL RESULT IN A WARMING TREND DURING THE SECOND HALF OF THE
WEEK. MOST OF THAT WARMING EXPECTED TO OCCUR INLAND WHERE HIGH
TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO CLIMB ABOVE NORMAL FOR THE FIRST TIME
IN NEARLY FOUR WEEKS. LOCATIONS SUCH AS SANTA ROSA AND LIVERMORE
ARE FORECAST TO WARM ABOVE 80 BY THURSDAY...THE FIRST TIME THOSE
LOCATIONS HAVE SEEN 80 SINCE MAY 1ST AND 2ND. COASTAL AREAS WILL
REMAIN RELATIVELY COOL DUE TO PERSISTENT ONSHORE FLOW. THE BIAS-
CORRECTED HIGH TEMPERATURE GRIDDED FORECASTS APPEAR TO BE TOO COOL
FOR INLAND AREAS DURING THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK...LIKELY THE
RESULT OF OUR RECENT PROLONGED COOL SPELL. SO HAVE FORECAST INLAND
HIGHS ABOVE THE BIAS-CORRECTED VALUES DURING THE SECOND HALF OF
THE WEEK.

SLIGHT COOLING IS EXPECTED NEXT WEEKEND AS THE UPPER RIDGE SHIFTS
OFF TO OUR EAST. NO RAINFALL IS EXPECTED IN THE NEXT 7-10 DAYS.

&&

.AVIATION...AS OF 4:20 AM PDT SUNDAY...A MUCH LESS EXTENSIVE AREA
OF LOW CLOUDS OVER INLAND AREAS THIS MORNING...THUS MVFR CIGS ARE
EXPECTED TO CLEAR EARLIER IN THE MORNING AS COMPARED TO YESTERDAY.
MODERATE SEA BREEZE WINDS ARE EXPECTED IN THE AFTERNOON.

VICINITY OF KSFO...MVFR CIGS. LOW CLOUDS FORECAST TO CLEAR BY 19Z.
MODERATE WEST WINDS 15-22 KNOTS DEVELOPING BY THE AFTERNOON.

KSFO BRIDGE APPROACH...SIMILAR TO KSFO.

MONTEREY BAY AREA TERMINALS...MVFR CIGS THIS MORNING...CLEARING BY
AFTERNOON.

&&

.MARINE...AS OF 04:14 AM PDT SUNDAY...GUSTY NW WINDS WILL CONTINUE
INTO SUNDAY PRODUCING FRESH SEAS WITH SHORT PERIOD SWELLS. WINDS
MAY EASE SLIGHTLY ON MEMORIAL DAY BUT NW WINDS WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH MUCH OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
     .TDAY...SCA...PT ARENA TO PT REYES 10-60 NM
             SCA...PT REYES TO PIGEON PT 10-60 NM
             SCA...PIGEON PT TO PT PINOS 10-60 NM UNTIL 9 AM
             SCA...PT PINOS TO PT PIEDRAS BLANCAS 10-60 NM UNTIL 9 AM
             SCA...PT ARENA TO PT REYES 0-10 NM
             SCA...SF BAY NORTH OF THE BAY BRIDGE FROM 3 PM

&&

$$

PUBLIC FORECAST: BELL/DYKEMA
AVIATION/MARINE: SIMS

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