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000
FXUS61 KOKX 130626
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
126 AM EST FRI DEC 13 2013

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE ACROSS EASTERN CANADA WILL TRACK OFFSHORE ON FRIDAY
SENDING A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE AREA FRIDAY EVENING. HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS IN ACROSS THE NORTHEAST FRIDAY NIGHT. LOW
PRESSURE WILL THEN MOVE ACROSS THE OHIO AND TENNESSEE VALLEYS
SATURDAY WITH A SECONDARY LOW FORMING ALONG THE MID ATLANTIC COAST
SATURDAY NIGHT. THE LOW THEN TRACKS NORTHEAST INTO THE CANADIAN
MARITIMES SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS FOR
MONDAY...FOLLOWED BY A QUICK MOVING FRONTAL SYSTEM ON TUESDAY.
HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS FOR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
LOW PRESSURE PASSING THROUGH EASTERN CANADA WILL SEND A COLD
FRONT SE ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES...WITH HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED
OVER THE TN VALLEY. THIS WILL KEEP THE AREA UNDER A W/SW FLOW
WHICH WILL GUSTS UP TO 20 MPH AT TIMES...ESPECIALLY IN URBAN AND
COASTAL AREAS. SOME MOISTURE FROM THE GREAT LAKES WILL ALSO
MOVE ACROSS NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE LOWER HUDSON VALLEY AND
INTERIOR SW CT IN THE FORM OF CLOUDS AND POSSIBLE FLURRIES.

OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE TEENS WITH A FEW SINGLE
DIGITS POSSIBLE INLAND DEPENDING ON THE EXTEND OF THE CLOUD COVER
WORKING IN FROM THE WEST.


&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM SATURDAY/...
SURFACE HIGH BRIEFLY RETREATS TO THE SOUTH AS A WEAK COLD FRONT
PUSHES THROUGH THE NORTHEAST FRIDAY AFTERNOON. THE HIGH BUILDS
BACK UP IN THE WAKE FRIDAY NIGHT...BRINGING ABOUT THE LAST DRIER
WEATHER BEFORE THE APPROACHING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM FOR THE
WEEKEND. OVERALL...EXPECTING THE PASSAGE OF THE FRONT TO BE DRY
WITH THE PERSISTING ARCTIC AIR MASS KEEPING FAIRLY DRY AIR OVER THE
REGION. THE FRONT ALONG WITH A PASSING WEAK WAVE ALOFT COULD
TRIGGER ISOLATED FLURRIES OVER INTERIOR PORTIONS OF NY AND CT LATE
IN THE DAY AND EARLY FRI EVENING. A PERIOD OF DRY WEATHER THEN
SETS IN BEFORE LIGHT PCPN ASSOCIATED WITH THE APPROACHING LOW
TRACKING THROUGH THE SOUTHEAST BEGINS TO MOVE IN. CURRENTLY JUST
HAVE SLIGHT CHC WITH LIGHT SNOW BY 12Z SAT...DEPENDING ON THE
TIMING OF THE LOW COULD SEE A DIFFERENCE OF PCPN START TIME.
HOWEVER...CONFIDENCE IS THERE THAT ANY INITIAL PCPN WILL BE IN THE
FORM OF LIGHT SNOW.

COLD WEATHER REMAINS THE STORY THROUGH FRIDAY AS 850MB TEMPS
REMAIN AROUND -10 DEGREES. HIGHS FRIDAY WILL BE A COUPLE DEGREES
WARMER...THOUGH STILL AROUND 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. INCREASED
CLOUD COVER AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING SYSTEMS FRI NIGHT WILL KEEP
LOWS IN THE 20S ALONG THE COAST...AND IN THE UPPER TEENS INLAND.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
SOUTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE MOVING OUT OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND INTO
THE SOUTHEAST WILL DEVELOP A SURFACE LOW MOVING THROUGH THE GULF
COAST STATES. HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN TO THE NORTH OVER
SOUTHEASTERN CANADA AND INTO THE NORTHEAST. COLD AIR DAMMING WILL
KEEP COLD AIR EAST OF THE APPALACHIANS INTO NORTH CAROLINA.
DEVELOPING WARM ADVECTION...AND COASTAL FRONT...ALONG WITH
ISENTROPIC LIFT WILL RESULT IN PRECIPITATION DEVELOPING BY
SATURDAY MORNING. COLD AIR WILL BE IN PLACE AT THE START FOR ALL
SNOW. THE TREND HAS BEEN FOR A WARMER SOLUTION WITH THE EVOLUTION
OF THE LOW AS THE STORM REDEVELOPS OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST LATE
SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY EVENING. ALL MODELS ARE TRACKING THE LOW
JUST INSIDE THE BENCHMARK...40/70. FLOW WILL BE PROGRESSIVE AND NO
UPPER CLOSED LOW ASSOCIATED WITH THE SYSTEM. PLENTY OF GULF AND
ATLANTIC MOISTURE WILL BE INCORPORATED INTO THE SYSTEM. MOST OF
THE PRECIPITATION WILL OCCUR AT THE START...SATURDAY INTO THE
EVENING. AS WARMER AIR MOVES INTO A TRANSITION TO RAIN ALONG THE
COAST IS LIKELY AND FARTHER INLAND WILL BE A TRANSITION OF
SNOW...SLEET...AND FREEZING RAIN...TAKING LONGER FOR THE
TRANSITION INTO THE LOWER HUDSON VALLEY UNTIL LATE SATURDAY NIGHT.
QPF AMOUNTS VARY WITH THE MODELS AND LEANED TOWARD THE WPC AND RFC
GUIDANCE. SNOWFALL TOTALS WILL BE LEAST ACROSS SUFFOLK COUNTY NEW
YORK WITH THE HIGHEST ACROSS THE LOWER HUDSON VALLEY...RANGING
FROM AROUND 2 INCHES TO 6 INCHES. PRECIPITATION TYPE AND TIMING
TRANSITION WILL HAVE AN IMPACT ON SNOW AND ICE TOTALS. STILL DO
NOT HAVE HIGH ENOUGH CONFIDENCE OF A 6 INCH SNOWFALL INLAND AND
WILL NOT ISSUE ANY WATCHES AT THIS TIME...AND LOOKS LIKE AN
ADVISORY EVENT AT THIS TIME.

THE LOW WILL MOVE AWAY ON SUNDAY...WITH PRECIPITATION ENDING. DRY
WEATHER RETURNS BRIEFLY SUNDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT. THEN A QUICK
MOVING FRONTAL SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH FOR TUESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS IN FOR TUESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY. FOLLOWED CLOSELY TO THE
CURRENT FORECAST AND WPC GUIDANCE FOR MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH
THURSDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST U.S. A LOW WILL MOVE
OVER NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND EARLY FRIDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE
ACROSS THE AREA FRIDAY EVENING FOLLOWED BY LOW PRESSURE SATURDAY.

VFR WEATHER WILL PREVAIL THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY.

W WINDS MAINLY FROM 250-290 DEGS OF 10-20 KT WITH GUSTS AROUND 25
KT WILL CONT UNTIL 21Z FRIDAY...THEN BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE FRI
EVE. LIGHT NE WINDS WILL DEVELOP BEHIND THE COLD FRONT FRI NIGHT.

.OUTLOOK FOR 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...

.FRI NIGHT...MVFR CIGS POSSIBLE LATE.
.SAT...IFR/LIFR IN DEVELOPING SNOW AND FOG AREA WIDE.
.SAT NIGHT...NYC/NJ METRO INCLUDING LONG ISLAND AND COASTAL
CT...IFR/LIFR IN SNOW CHANGING TO RAIN AT THE COAST. WEST AND NORTH OF
NYC...SNOW MIXING WITH SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN. E WINDS G20-30KT
MAINLY FROM NYC E.
.SUNDAY...LINGERING SNOW OR RAIN SHOWERS INTO THE AFTERNOON...
BECOMING VFR FROM W TO E DURING THE AFTERNOON.
.SUNDAY NIGHT-MON...VFR.
.TUE...CHANCE OF SUB-VFR IN SNOW SHOWERS

&&

.MARINE...
SCA IN EFFECT FOR ALL WATERS TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY WITH A
TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT WITH THE HIGH TO OUR SOUTH AND AN
APPROACHING COLD FRONT FROM THE NORTH. GUSTS UP TO 30 KTS WILL BE
PSBL...ESP FRIDAY MORNING...WITH SEAS ON THE OCEAN REACHING 4-6 FT
FRIDAY. CONDITIONS WILL START TO DIMINISH LATE FRIDAY FROM WEST TO
EAST AS THE HIGH BUILDS IN BEHIND THE DEPARTING FRONT.

LOW PRESSURE OVER THE OHIO AND TENNESSEE VALLEYS WILL MOVE OFF THE
MID ATLANTIC COAST SATURDAY NIGHT...PASSING SOUTH AND EAST OF THE
FORECAST WATERS THROUGH SUNDAY AS THE LOW HEADS INTO THE CANADIAN
MARITIME. SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY ACROSS THE FORECAST
WATERS SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY NIGHT IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE
LOW. BEHIND THE LOW LATE SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT THERE IS A
POTENTIAL FOR A BRIEF PERIOD OF GALE FORCE GUSTS ON THE OCEAN
WATERS. SEAS WILL BE SLOW TO SUBSIDE WITH SMALL CRAFT SEAS ON THE
OCEAN WATERS LINGERING INTO TUESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION IS LIKELY SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY IN
ASSOCIATION WITH A COASTAL LOW. LIQUID EQUIVALENT QPF RANGES FROM
3/4 TO 1 INCH...FALLING MAINLY AS SNOW ACROSS NORTHERN NEW JERSEY
INTO THE LOWER HUDSON VALLEY AND ACROSS SOUTHERN CONNECTICUT.
DRY WEATHER RETURNS SUNDAY NIGHT INTO THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.EQUIPMENT...
THE NEW YORK CITY NOAA ALL HAZARDS WEATHER RADIO STATION KWO35 HAS
BEEN RETURNED TO SERVICE. HOWEVER...IF ISSUES ARISE AGAIN DUE TO
INTERFERENCE WITH THE U.S. COAST GUARD EMERGENCY BROADCAST
CHANNEL...THE TRANSMITTER MAY NEED TO BE TAKEN OUT OF SERVICE. IF THIS
DOES OCCUR...A NOTICE WILL BE MADE TO THE PUBLIC NOTIFYING THEM OF
SUCH.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR ANZ330-
     335-338-340-345-355.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM EST SATURDAY FOR ANZ350-353.

&&

$$