Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Upton, NY

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000
FXUS61 KOKX 050231
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
1031 PM EDT SAT JUL 4 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD FROM THE WEST TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY
AND EAST OF THE REGION ON MONDAY. A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE MOVES
INTO THE REGION FOR TUESDAY...FOLLOWED BY A COLD FRONT MOVING
THROUGH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THE FRONT STALLS
JUST TO OUR SOUTH ON THURSDAY WITH A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE MOVING
ALONG IT. HIGH PRESSURE THEN RETURNS FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
A WEAK UPPER TROUGH MOVES EAST...OFF THE NORTHEAST
COAST...OVERNIGHT. MEANWHILE AT THE SURFACE WEAK HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST.

GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDS LATE TONIGHT SHOULD ALLOW TEMPS
ACROSS OUTLYING AREAS TO DROP INTO THE 50S...AND 60S IN THE URBAN
CENTERS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY/...
THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF RIP CURRENT DEVELOPMENT AT THE OCEAN
BEACHES SUNDAY AND SUNDAY EVENING.

SHORTWAVE TROUGH AXIS WILL BE EAST OF THE AREA EARLY SUNDAY
MORNING WITH WEAK UPPER RIDGING BUILDING IN ITS WAKE. AT THE
SURFACE...WEAK HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO BUILD IN...WITH WEAK
THERMAL TROUGHING EXPECTED IN THE AFTERNOON.

MOSTLY SUNNY AND SEASONABLY WARM CONDITIONS EXPECTED ON SUNDAY
WITH JUST SOME DIURNAL INSTABILITY. HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE LOWER
TO MID 80S...WARMEST IN NYC METRO AND THE INTERIOR VALLEYS.
AFTERNOON SEABREEZE DEVELOPMENT...WILL KEEP SOUTH COASTS IN THE
LOWER 80S.

TRANQUIL AND SEASONABLY MILD CONDITIONS SUNDAY NIGHT. SOME PATCHY
FOG POSSIBLE ACROSS OUTLYING AREAS WITH CLEARS SKIES...LIGHT
SOUTHERLY WINDS...AND MODERATING MOISTURE LEVELS.

UPPER RIDGING REMAIN IN CONTROL ON MONDAY AS A SOUTHERN STREAM LOW
LIFTS INTO THE TENNESSEE RIVER VALLEY. AT THE SURFACE...HIGH
PRESSURE GRADUALLY SLIDES OFFSHORE. THIS WILL SPELL MOSTLY SUNNY
CONDITIONS ONCE AGAIN. A STRENGTHENING SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL SPELL
INCREASING HEAT AND HUMIDITY LEVELS. TEMPS ACROSS THE NYC/NJ METRO
AND INTERIOR SHOULD BE SLIGHTLY ABOVE SEASONABLY LEVELS...MID TO
UPPER 80S. ONSHORE FLOW WILL KEEP COASTAL AREAS NEAR
SEASONABLE...LOWER 80S-85.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
WEAK LOW PRESSURE TO OUR SW WEAKENS FURTHER TO A TROUGH MONDAY NIGHT
AS IT PUSHES TOWARDS OUR AREA. THIS TROUGH SHOULD STICK AROUND
THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...MOST LIKELY CLOSER TO THE WESTERN ZONES. A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF A SHOWER OR TSTM BEGINS AFTER MIDNIGHT MONDAY NIGHT
ACROSS THE AREA...THEN POPS INCREASE TO CHC DURING TUESDAY WITH
INCREASING INSTABILITY AND MOISTURE CONVERGENCE FOR ROUGHLY THE NW
HALF OF THE CWA. HAVE GONE A LITTLE ABOVE GUIDANCE OF HIGH TEMPS ON
TUESDAY...BUT THEY STILL MIGHT BE A COUPLE OF DEGREES TOO
LOW...ESPECIALLY IF FEWER CLOUDS MATERIALIZE THAN FORECAST.

A COLD FRONT THEN MOVES IN FROM THE NW WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND
POSSIBLY CLEARS THE EASTERN ZONES BY MIDNIGHT...BUT THERE IS STILL
SOME UNCERTAINTY REGARDING HOW FAR SE THE FRONT MOVES BEFORE
STALLING. WILL CAP POPS AT HIGH END CHC WEDS/WEDS NIGHT...BUT THIS
MIGHT EVENTUALLY NEED TO BE BUMPED UP SHOULD MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW
ROUGHLY THE SAME FROPA TIME AND INCREASING MOISTURE. ENOUGH CAPE IS
PRESENT FOR A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS...AND WITH HIGH PWATS...FAIRLY
LIGHT STEERING FLOW...AND THE COLD FRONT BECOMING MORE ALIGNED WITH
THIS STEERING FLOW ALOFT...THERE IS SOME CONCERN FOR TRAINING
STORMS THAT COULD PRODUCE AT LEAST MINOR URBAN/SMALL STREAM
FLOODING. WILL KEEP MENTION OF THIS OUT OF THE HWO FOR NOW UNTIL
CONFIDENCE BUILDS.

THERE APPEARS TO BE AGREEMENT AMONG THE GLOBAL MODELS THAT THE COLD
FRONT STALLS SOUTH OF US DURING THURSDAY AND A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE
MOVING ALONG THE BOUNDARY BRINGS US A CHANCE OF RAIN THURSDAY OR
THURSDAY NIGHT. WILL GO WITH LOW CHANCE POPS FOR THIS PERIOD...THEN
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS BACK IN FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY WITH THE
LIKELIHOOD OF DRY WEATHER.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST OVERNIGHT. THE HIGH REMAINS
OVER THE REGION INTO SUNDAY NIGHT.

VFR THROUGH THE FORECAST.

LIGHT AND VARIABLE TO NEAR CALM WIND OVERNIGHT. THE WIND BECOMES
LIGHT WEST TO NORTHWEST...5 TO LESS THAN 10 KT...12Z TO 13Z
SUNDAY...AND THEN SOUTHWEST TO SOUTH IN THE AFTERNOON AS SEA
BREEZES DEVELOP.

.OUTLOOK FOR 00Z MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...
.SUN NIGHT...VFR WITH SSW FLOW.
.MON...VFR WITH S WINDS 10 TO 15 KT.
.TUE...MAINLY VFR. CHC TSTMS...ESPECIALLY WRN AREAS. S WINDS.
.WED...MAINLY VFR WITH A CHC OF TSTMS. SW FLOW.
.THU...MVFR POSSIBLE WITH A CHC OF SHWRS. FLOW BECOMING NE.

&&

.MARINE...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN OVERNIGHT AND REMAINS INTO MONDAY.
NORTHERLY WIND WILL BE LIGHT OVERNIGHT. OCEAN SEAS OF 2 TO 4 FT
MAY BRIEFLY BUILD TO 5 FT LATE TONIGHT WITH SOUTHERLY
SWELLS...MAINLY ACROSS THE EASTERN WATERS.

OTHERWISE WIND AND SEAS REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE APPROACHES ON TUESDAY...THEN A COLD
FRONT APPROACHES ON WEDNESDAY AND STALLS OVER THE WATERS ON
THURSDAY. THIS COULD TIGHTEN THE PRESSURE GRADIENT SOMEWHAT
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...BUT WINDS AND SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN
BELOW ADVISORY CRITERIA. IT COULD COME CLOSE TO REACHING CRITERIA
THRESHOLDS HOWEVER ON THE OCEAN WATERS TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. WITH THE FRONT OVERHEAD OR NEARBY ON THURSDAY...WINDS AND
SEAS SHOULD DIMINISH.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
DRY CONDITIONS THROUGH MONDAY.

SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION COULD OCCUR AT SOME POINT DURING THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. RIGHT NOW IT APPEARS THAT WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON
AND EVENING HAVE THE HIGHEST CHANCE FOR THE POTENTIAL OF AT LEAST
MINOR URBAN/SMALL STREAM FLOODING AS A WEAKENING COLD FRONT SLOWLY
MOVES ACROSS THE AREA. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL HOWEVER STILL
BE POSSIBLE DURING TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
COMBO OF A RECENT FULL MOON AND SOME TIDAL PILING VIA ELEVATED OCEAN
SEAS MAY CAUSE MINOR COASTAL FLOODING BENCHMARKS TO BE BRIEFLY
TOUCHED ALONG A FEW LOCATIONS OF THE SOUTH SHORE BACK BAYS OF NASSAU
COUNTY AT THE PEAK OF THE HIGH TIDE TONIGHT. THE THREAT WILL
DIMINISH SUNDAY NIGHT AS ASTRONOMICAL TIES CONTINUE TO DROP.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$



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