Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Upton, NY

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FXUS61 KOKX 020857
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
457 AM EDT TUE JUN 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK JUST TO THE SOUTH OF THE REGION
ALONG A FRONTAL BOUNDARY TODAY. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN TONIGHT.
THROUGH WEDNESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE OFF THE NEW ENGLAND
COAST WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS AN UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES
SLOWLY TOWARDS THE SOUTHEAST COAST THROUGH FRIDAY. A COLD FRONT
WILL MOVE SLOWLY ACROSS THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY
FOLLOWED BY HIGH PRESSURE FOR THE WEEKEND. A FRONTAL SYSTEM THEN
APPROACHES FOR THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE THROUGH THE AREA AS A STALLED
FRONTAL BOUNDARY JUST TO OUR SOUTH PUSHES FARTHER OUT TO SEA. A
WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE ALONG THIS BOUNDARY...PASSING
WELL SOUTH AND EAST OF THE AREA. MESOSCALE MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW
A DOWNWARD TREND IN THE PRECIPITATION...WHICH IS IN LINE WITH
WHAT IS OCCURRING ON THE CURRENT REGIONAL RADAR. HAVE SCALED BACK
ON THE QPF A BIT. HOWEVER...WITH THE RECENT HEAVY RAINS...IT MAY
NOT TAKE MUCH FOR SOME AREAS TO FLOOD...ESPECIALLY ACROSS NE NJ
WHERE SOME OF THE HEAVIEST RAIN FELL YESTERDAY. SOME RIVERS
CONTINUE TO RISE AS WELL...THERE IS A FLOOD WARNING IN EFFECT FOR
THE STILL RIVER AT BROOKFIELD. WITH THE 00Z SOUNDING SHOWING A
PWAT OF 1.73 INCHES. PLUS...THERE IS STILL SOME GOOD FRONTOGENESIS
THAT WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA LATE THIS MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON.
THEREFORE...WILL CONTINUE THE FLOOD WATCH.

SHOWERS...CLOUDS...AND A NORTHEAST FLOW WILL HELP TO KEEP
TEMPERATURES WILL BELOW NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. HIGHS WILL
ONLY BE IN THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 50S. 60 MAY BE POSSIBLE ACROSS
NORTHEAST NJ.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/...
THE CHANCE FOR SHOWERS DECREASES AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM
SOUTHEASTERN CANADA AND THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY CONTINUES TO PUSH
AWAY FROM THE AREA. DRY CONDITIONS RETURN LATE TONIGHT AND
CONTINUE THROUGH WEDNESDAY. A NORTHEAST FLOW SHIFTS TO THE EAST
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. THIS WILL ALLOW THE BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES
TO CONTINUE WITH LOWS TUESDAY NIGHT IN THE UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S.
CONDITIONS WILL BE WARMER ON WEDNESDAY...MIDDLE 60S TO NEAR 70.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE H5 PATTERN ACROSS NOAM THROUGH
THE END OF THE WEEK. SLIGHT DIFFERENCES IN TIMING AND AMPLITUDE
BEGIN TO BECOME APPARENT IN THE NORTHERN STREAM ON SAT AND CONTINUE
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK LEADING TO LOWER CONFIDENCE IN THE FORECAST.

WED NIGHT THROUGH FRI...HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE OFF THE NEW ENGLAND
COAST WED NIGHT AND SLOWLY TRACK EWD. MEANWHILE...AN UPPER LEVEL LOW
OVER THE MID-ATLANTIC/SE STATES WILL SLOWLY TRACK TOWARDS THE COAST.
THE MODELS ARE TRYING TO BRING PCPN FROM A WEAK SFC LOW/INVERTED
TROUGH OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST INTO THE AREA THU/THU NIGHT...BUT
THINK THIS IS TOO QUICK WITH RIDGING AND SUBSIDENCE STILL NOSING IN
FROM THE E/NE. HAVE LOWERED POPS AS A RESULT. BY FRI...THE HIGH
SHOULD BE FAR ENOUGH AWAY TO ALLOW SOME SHOWER ACTIVITY INTO THE
AREA WITH A WARM FRONT EXTENDING UP THE COAST FROM THE LOW OFF THE
MID ATLANTIC COAST. COVERAGE NOT EXPECTED TO BE VERY WIDESPREAD WITH
LITTLE UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT.

FRI NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...AN UPPER TROUGH DIGGING THROUGH SERN
CANADA WILL TRACK THROUGH NEW ENGLAND. A COLD FRONT EXTENDING FROM
THE ASSOCIATED SFC LOW IN THE CANADIAN MARITIMES WILL APPROACH FRI
NIGHT. HAVE THE FRONT SLOWLY MOVING THROUGH THE AREA INTO SAT...BUT
THERE IS SOME INDICATION THAT IS WASHES OUT BEFORE MAKING IT
THROUGH.

HIGH PRES WITH DRY AND SEASONABLE WEATHER THEN BUILDS BACK IN FROM
THE N FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEKEND. A FRONTAL SYSTEM MAY IMPACT
THE AREA EARLY NEXT WEEK.

TEMPERATURES WILL START OFF BELOW NORMAL WED NIGHT AND THU WITH
ONSHORE FLOW CONTINUING. NEAR NORMAL TEMPS ARE THEN FORECAST FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A FRONTAL BOUNDARY REMAINS ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW JERSEY AND SOUTH OF
LONG ISLAND WITH WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE MOVING ALONG THE BOUNDARY
INTO THIS AFTERNOON. HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTH BEGINS TO BUILD
SOUTH LATE THIS AFTERNOON...PUSHING THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY SOUTH. THE
HIGH BUILDS TO THE NORTH THROUGH TONIGHT.

HIGHLY VARIABLE CONDITIONS EXPECTED TODAY...VARYING FROM IFR
CEILINGS TO MARGINAL VFR CEILINGS...WITH VISIBILITIES VARYING FROM
VFR TO IFR. PERIODS OF LIGHT TO MODERATE RAIN CONTINUES INTO THIS
AFTERNOON WITH THE RAIN ENDING BY EARLY THIS EVENING.

WIND WILL BE FROM THE NORTHEAST THROUGH THE FORECAST...030 TO 060
TRUE...10 TO 15 KT.

LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE FORECAST WITH UNCERTAINTY IN THE TIMING OF
CHANGING CONDITIONS.


    NY METRO ENHANCED AVIATION WEATHER SUPPORT...

DETAILED INFORMATION...INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FCSTS CAN
BE FOUND AT: HTTP://WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/ZNY/N90 (LOWER CASE)

KJFK FCSTER COMMENTS: UNCERTAINTY WITH THE TIMING OF IMPROVEMENT TO
MARGINAL VFR CEILINGS THIS MORNING...COULD BE SLOWER THAN FORECAST.
UNCERTAIN THAT MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN WITH REDUCED CONDITIONS WILL
OCCUR THIS AFTERNOON. HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE WIND FORECAST.

KLGA FCSTER COMMENTS: UNCERTAINTY WITH THE TIMING OF IMPROVEMENT TO
MARGINAL VFR CEILINGS THIS MORNING...COULD BE SLOWER THAN FORECAST.
UNCERTAIN THAT MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN WITH REDUCED CONDITIONS WILL
OCCUR THIS AFTERNOON. HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE WIND FORECAST.

KEWR FCSTER COMMENTS: UNCERTAINTY WITH THE TIMING OF IMPROVEMENT TO
MARGINAL VFR CEILINGS THIS MORNING...COULD BE SLOWER THAN FORECAST.
UNCERTAIN THAT MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN WITH REDUCED CONDITIONS WILL
OCCUR THIS AFTERNOON. HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE WIND FORECAST.

THE AFTERNOON KEWR HAZE POTENTIAL FORECAST IS GREEN...WHICH IMPLIES
SLANT RANGE VISIBILITY 7SM OR GREATER OUTSIDE OF CLOUD.

KTEB FCSTER COMMENTS: MARGINAL VFR CEILINGS COULD BRIEFLY BECOME IFR
THROUGH 15Z...OTHERWISE CEILINGS REMAIN MARGINAL VFR. UNCERTAIN THAT
MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN WITH REDUCED CONDITIONS WILL OCCUR THIS
AFTERNOON. HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE WIND FORECAST.

KHPN FCSTER COMMENTS: IFR CONDITIONS THIS MORNING. EXPECTING
CONDITIONS TO IMPROVE TO MARGINAL VFR THIS MORNING...AND COULD BE
SLOWER THAN FORECAST. HOWEVER...VISIBILITIES SHOULD IMPROVE TO AT
LEAST MARGINAL VFR TO VFR FIRST...AROUND 12Z. LOW CONFIDENCE IN
TIMING OF IMPROVEMENTS.

KISP FCSTER COMMENTS:  UNCERTAINTY WITH THE TIMING OF IMPROVEMENT
TO MARGINAL VFR CEILINGS THIS MORNING...COULD BE SLOWER THAN
FORECAST. UNCERTAIN THAT MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN WITH REDUCED
CONDITIONS WILL OCCUR THIS AFTERNOON. HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE WIND
FORECAST.


.OUTLOOK FOR 06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...
.TUESDAY NIGHT...CONDITIONS IMPROVING TO VFR LATE.
.WEDNESDAY-THURSDAY...VFR.
.FRIDAY...CHANCE OF SHOWERS WITH MARGINAL VFR CONDITIONS.
.SATURDAY...SHOWERS ENDING IN THE AFTERNOON WITH CONDITIONS
IMPROVING TO VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
SCA E/NE FLOW WILL CONTINUE THROUGH WEDNESDAY WITH SEAS OF 4 TO 7
FT AND WIND GUSTS 25-30 KT ON THE OCEAN.

SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF TONIGHT AS A
STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY SLOWLY PUSHES TO THE EAST.

WINDS AND SEAS MAY CONTINUE TO REACH SCA CONDS ON THE OCEAN WATERS
WED NIGHT INTO THU WITH A TIGHT PRES GRADIENT OVER THE AREA. THE
GRADIENT RELAXES THEREAFTER WITH SUB-ADVSY CONDS ON ALL WATERS
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH CONTINUES THROUGH 00Z WED FOR ALL BUT
EASTERN LI FOR URBAN/POOR DRAINAGE FLOODING THREAT FROM ANY
TRAINING HEAVY SHOWERS. SOME RIVERS CONTINUE TO RISE...AND FEW
FLASHY STREAMS AND SMALL RIVERS...ESPECIALLY IN NE NJ...COULD
EXCEED BANKFULL DUE TO THE SATURATED GROUNDS FROM RAINFALL OVER
THE LAST 36 HRS.

ADDITIONAL BASIN AVG QPF OF ANYWHERE FROM 1/4 TO JUST OVER 1
INCHESIS EXPECTED INTO THIS EVENING BEFORE COMING TO AND END.
THE BULK OF THE RAINFALL WILL FALL ACROSS LONG ISLAND AND SE CT.

NO SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL (GREATER THAN 1/2 INCH) IS EXPECTED THROUGH
THE WEEKEND.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR CTZ005>012.
NY...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR NYZ067>075-078-080-
     176>179.
NJ...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR NJZ002-004-006-
     103>108.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR ANZ350-353-
     355.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...24/JP
NEAR TERM...JP
SHORT TERM...JP
LONG TERM...24
AVIATION...MET
MARINE...24/JP
HYDROLOGY...24/JP


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