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000
FXUS61 KOKX 090000
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
700 PM EST SAT MAR 8 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTH OF LONG ISLAND THIS EVENING. AN
UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE WILL PASS THROUGH LATE TONIGHT PROVIDING A
SECONDARY SHOT OF COLDER AIR. A SERIES OF WEAK FRONTS WILL CROSS
THE REGION THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. A STORM SYSTEM WILL THEN
APPROACH FROM THE MID SECTION OF THE COUNTRY DURING THE MIDDLE OF
NEXT WEEK. HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS FOR THE END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTH OF LONG ISLAND THIS EVE. AN
UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE MOVING OUT OF THE GREAT LAKES WILL PASS
THROUGH THE AREA LATE TONIGHT...BRINGING A SECOND SURGE OF COLDER
AIR WITH IT.

FORECAST IS GENERALLY ON TRACK. TAKING A LOOK AT THE 18Z
GUIDANCE...HAVE INCREASED POPS TO CHC ALONG THE SOUTH SHORE OF
LONG ISLAND AS MODELS ARE A BIT WETTER. OTHERWISE...ADJUSTED
HOURLY T/TD AND SKY GRIDS BASED ON LATEST OBS AND TRENDS.

AT 23Z...COLD FRONT WAS ABOUT 2/3 OF WAY THROUGH THE FORECAST
AREA...OR ABOUT 1/2 WAY THROUGH LONG ISLAND. CLOUDS WILL INCREASE
THIS EVENING AS THE SHORTWAVE APPROACHES FROM THE W. SOME LIGHT
RAIN OR SNOW SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE
SHORTWAVE AFTER MIDNIGHT.

WINDS WILL REMAIN FROM THE NORTHWEST AND COULD BECOME GUSTY LATE.

OVERNIGHT LOWS TONIGHT FALL INTO THE 20S AND LOWER 30S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
SHORTWAVE SLIDES EAST SUNDAY MORNING WITH SURFACE RIDGING BUILDING
IN ITS WAKE FOR SUNDAY. THIS SHOULD PROVIDE A SUNNY START TO THE
DAY...HOWEVER HIGH CLOUDS INCREASE LATE IN THE DAY AHEAD OF AN
APPROACHING SHORTWAVE SUNDAY NIGHT.  TEMPERATURES WILL BE MUCH
COOLER TOMORROW WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 30S AND LOWER 40S. IN
ADDITION TO THE COOLER TEMPERATURES...EXPECT A GUSTY NORTHWEST FLOW.

A SHORTWAVE PASSES OVER THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT. EXPECT MOSTLY
CLOUDY SKIES AND A SLIGHT CHANCE OF A SNOW SHOWER LATE. THE BEST
CHANCE OF ANY PRECIPITATION WILL REMAIN ACROSS CONNECTICUT AND THE
LOWER HUDSON VALLEY. OVERNIGHT LOWS SUNDAY NIGHT FALL INTO THE 20S
AND LOWER 30S.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE H5 FLOW THROUGH
TUE...BUT START TO HAVE ISSUES WITH PAC NW ENERGY MOVING ONSHORE AND
PHASING WITH THE SOUTHERN BRANCH OF THE JET STREAM BY MIDWEEK. THIS
LEADS TO A LOW CONFIDENCE FORECAST FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK.

THE H5 FLOW WILL START OFF NW ON MON WITH A FEW SHORTWAVES TRACKING
THROUGH THE NORTHEAST...ONE ON MON AND ANOTHER MON NIGHT.  THE
FORMER MAY BRING SOME SCT SNOW SHOWERS TO THE LOCAL AREA.
HOWEVER...THE LATTER ALTHOUGH STRONGER AND ACCOMPANIED BY A COLD
FRONT...REMAINS FAR ENOUGH N THAT THE LOCAL AREA SHOULD REMAIN DRY.

THE MID WEEK SYSTEM WILL NEED TO BE CLOSELY MONITORED OVER THE NEXT
SEVERAL DAYS. THE ENERGY ASSOCIATED WITH THIS STORM IS CURRENTLY
OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC AND WILL MOVE ONSHORE DURING THE DAY MON.
THE MODELS CONTINUE TO HAVE RUN TO RUN CONSISTENCY ISSUES AND KEEP
WAVERING BETWEEN COLDER AND WARMER SOLNS. TODAYS 12Z MODELS ARE
INDICATING A WARMER SOLN FOR THE MAJORITY OF THE STORM...WITH THE
POTENTIAL FOR SNOW ON THE BACKSIDE AS THE FLOW BECOME NLY AND COLDER
AIR FILTERS IN. CANNOT GET TOO SPECIFIC WITH THE DETAILS AT THIS
POINT...AND MODELS MAY CONTINUE TO WAVER BACK AND FORTH UNTIL THE
ENERGY MOVES ON LAND WHERE THERE IS BETTER SAMPLING OF THE DATA.
THE EC REMAINS THE MOST AMPLIFIED SOLN AND THEREFORE IS THE
SLOWEST OF THE PACK. THERE ARE ALSO ISSUES WITH THE STRENGTH OF
THE LOW. BOTH OF THESE STEM FROM THE INTERACTION WITH THE SOUTHERN
STREAM AS IT MOVES THROUGH THE MIDDLE PART OF THE COUNTRY.

COLD AND BREEZY AS THE STORM PULLS OUT AT THE END OF THE WEEK WITH
CANADIAN HIGH PRES BUILDING IN. ANOTHER COLD FRONT IS THEN FORECAST TO
MOVE ACROSS FRI NIGHT OR SAT.

TEMPERATURES MON THROUGH WED WILL BE AT OR ABOVE NORMAL
LEVELS...THEN BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES RETURN DURING THE LATTER
HALF OF THE WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE AREA THIS EVENING.

NW FLOW EXPECTED TONIGHT. SPEEDS GENERALLY 10 KT ACROSS NYC
METRO...AND LESS ELSEWHERE.

THERE COULD BE ISOLATED LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS OR FLURRIES AFTER 6Z.
CEILINGS COULD DROP TO 3 KFT OR LESS BRIEFLY...ALTHOUGH CEILINGS
SHOULD REMAIN VFR MOST IF NOT ALL OF THE TIME.

THEN SKIES CLEAR LATE TONIGHT AND THROUGH THE DAY SUNDAY. WINDS
REMAIN FROM THE NORTHWEST...AROUND 300-320 TRUE. OCCASIONAL TO
FREQUENT GUSTS AFTER 12Z THROUGH AROUND 20Z ARE ANTICIPATED. GUSTS
GENERALLY 15 TO 20 KTS.

.OUTLOOK FOR 00Z MON THROUGH THU...
.SUNDAY NIGHT...VFR WITH INCREASING MID CLOUDS.
.MON...VFR. SW G25KT
.TUE...VFR
.WED...VFR EARLY. SUB-VFR LIKELY IN SN AND/OR RA.
.THU...IMPROVING TO VFR EARLY. NW G25-30KT.

&&

.MARINE...
A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE OCEAN WATERS
THROUGH TONIGHT. A LINGERING ESE SWELL WILL KEEP SEAS ON THE OCEAN
WATERS ABOVE 5 FT THROUGH TONIGHT. THERE IS A CHANCE THAT SMALL
CRAFT CONDITIONS MAY CONTINUE ON PARTS OF THE AREA WATERS INTO
SUNDAY MORNING. THEREFORE...THE SCA MAY NEED TO BE EXTENDED FOR A
LITTLE LONGER...ESPECIALLY OVER THE EASTERN WATERS WHERE THE SWELL
WILL TAKE LONGER TO SUBSIDE. ON THE REMAINDER OF THE WATERS...SUB-
SCA CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE HOWEVER AN OCCASIONAL GUST
TO 25 KT CAN NOT BE RULED OUT.

SCA GUSTS MAY LINGER ON THE OCEAN WATERS INTO MON MORNING...BUT
SHOULD FALL BELOW ADVSY CRITERIA BY MIDDAY. BRIEF SCA CONDS MAY
RETURN LATE MON NIGHT/EARLY TUE MORNING ON THE EASTERN OCEAN WATERS
IN RESPONSE TO A MODERATE SW FLOW. OTHERWISE...TRANQUIL CONDITIONS
WILL PREVAIL UNTIL WED NIGHT WITH A RELATIVELY LIGHT GRADIENT FLOW
ACROSS THE WATERS.

LOW PRES MOVING THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY AND MID ATLANTIC STATES ON
WED WILL RESULT IN AN INCREASE IN WINDS AND SEAS ACROSS THE WATERS.
UNCERTAINTY IN THE TRACK AND STRENGTH OF THIS SYSTEM
REMAINS...THEREFORE ONLY FORECASTING SCA CONDS AT THIS TIME. THERE
COULD BE GALE CONDS AS THE STORM PULLS OUT WED NIGHT/THU BUT THIS
WILL DEPEND ON THE STRENGTH OF THE LOW. SCA WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED
INTO THU NIGHT.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO SIGNIFICANT WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION EXPECTED THROUGH EARLY
NEXT WEEK.

THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR A SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION DURING THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK AS A STORM SYSTEM EMERGES FROM THE MS
VALLEY...BUT UNCERTAINTY IN THE FORECAST DETAILS CONTINUES AT THIS
TIME.

&&

.EQUIPMENT...
THE NOAA WEATHER RADIO TRANSMITTER THAT SERVES THE NEW YORK CITY
METROPOLITAN AREA REMAINS OUT OF SERVICE DUE TO RADIO FREQUENCY
INTERFERENCE WITH THE U.S COAST GUARD TRANSMITTER.

FOR MORE INFORMATION SEE THE FOLLOWING PUBLIC INFORMATION
STATEMENT (ALL LOWER CASE):
WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/OKX/PRODUCTS/STATIC.TXT

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT SUNDAY FOR ANZ350-353-355.

&&

$$