Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Oklahoma City, OK
FXUS64 KOUN 281522 AAA
Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Norman OK
1022 AM CDT Fri Oct 28 2016
Cirrus streaming over the area may affect temperatures and the
amount of mixing today but clouds appear thin enough that warm/hot
temps are still possible this afternoon with breezy south to
southwest winds. Increased wind speeds just a little for this
afternoon and adjusted sky cover/hourly grids to show current
trends but the overall forecast hasn`t changed much from the
previous forecast. All updates out soon.
.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 620 AM CDT Fri Oct 28 2016/
Aviation discussion for the 12 UTC TAFs is below.
VFR conditions are expected to continue.
South to southwest winds will become gusty at all sites 14-18 UTC.
Non-convective low level wind shear is possible across many sites
after 00 UTC. Did not mention due to low confidence of occurrence.
PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 324 AM CDT Fri Oct 28 2016/
Unseasonably warm conditions and near record warmth over the next
several days will prevail.
Early this morning, cannot rule out some patchy fog in low lying
areas, but did not mention due to low confidence of occurrence.
Today will be partly to mostly sunny with increasing south to
southwesterly surface winds. Highs should be slightly warmer than
yesterday in most locations, mainly in the mid to upper 80s.
Tonight and Saturday, similar weather can be expected with highs
on Saturday a bit higher than today.
Saturday night and Sunday night, a weak cold front is forecast by
latest models to move into northern Oklahoma, which should allow
for slightly cooler temperatures on Sunday locations north of
this boundary, mainly northwest of I-44. Not sure how far south
this boundary will get before retreating northward as a warm front
Sunday night. Moisture with the front appears to be limited, so no
rainfall is expected, though some low cloud cover and Sunday morning
fog could occur near and just north of the front. Temperatures
will likely remain above average, especially south of the front
where highs in the 80s should continue.
Monday and Tuesday, warm and rainfree weather will likely
continue. Monday may be warmer than Tuesday with lower surface
Wednesday and Thursday, latest models were in much disagreement
during this time frame with mid/upper level features. For now,
kept low rain chances in the forecast during this time frame,
though confidence is very low. Temperatures will likely stay above
average, possibly much above average, during this time frame with
no significant cooler air nearby.
Increasing surface winds and decreasing surface humidity today and
Saturday may elevate fire weather potential, especially in western
and northwestern Oklahoma. However, critical fire weather
conditions are not expected. Warm temperatures and the lack of
rainfall will continue to allow vegetation to dry out.
Highs may not be too far from record highs over the next several
days. Here are the records for Oklahoma City and Wichita Falls now
through next Thursday.
October 28...89 set in 1938
October 29...89 set in 1950
October 30...87 set in 1937
October 31...86 set in 1938
November 1...83 set in 1916
November 2...84 set in 2012
November 3...84 set in 1909
October 28...92 set in 1938
October 29...92 set in 1937
October 30...91 set in 2003
October 31...92 set in 1934
November 1...87 set in 2012
November 2...87 set in 2012
November 3...86 set in 2005
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Oklahoma City OK 84 62 85 60 / 0 0 0 0
Hobart OK 87 60 88 58 / 0 0 0 0
Wichita Falls TX 86 61 87 61 / 0 0 0 0
Gage OK 89 61 90 50 / 0 0 0 0
Ponca City OK 85 64 86 57 / 0 0 0 0
Durant OK 86 61 86 62 / 0 0 0 0