Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Oklahoma City, OK

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000
FXUS64 KOUN 192328
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
528 PM CST FRI DEC 19 2014

.DISCUSSION...
AVIATION DISCUSSION FOR THE 00Z TAFS IS BELOW.

&&

.AVIATION...
HAVE LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE TAFS FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

GENERALLY THINK CONDITIONS WILL SLOW WORSEN FROM MVFR TO IFR
THROUGH 15Z...THEN IMPROVE THE MVFR AFTER 15Z. EXACT TIMING
REMAINS UNCERTAIN. KPNC IS EXPECTED TO STAY MVFR. VFR CONDITIONS
MAY DEVELOP AFTER 17Z IN PARTS OF THE AREA...BUT DID NOT MENTION
DUE TO MUCH UNCERTAINTY.

MBS

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 226 PM CST FRI DEC 19 2014/

DISCUSSION...
EXPANSIVE STRATUS DECK REMAINS BLANKETED ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS
INTO THE OZARKS. HAVE SEEN SOME IMPROVEMENT ON THE FAR WRN EDGE
ACROSS WRN KS AND THE PANHANDLES ON VIS SAT... BUT EXPECT THE LOW
CLOUDS AND LIGHT TO MODERATE FOG TO LINGER ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION
THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS INTO SAT MORNING. EVEN WITH THE WEAK
H500 TROUGH FINALLY EXITING ACROSS MO/HR... EXPECT PATCHY FOG
ONCE AGAIN TOMORROW MORNING AS LIGHT WINDS AND DECENT MOISTURE
REMAINS PARKED OVER THE REGION.

SATURDAY... SHOULD SEE SOME IMPROVEMENT IN CLOUD COVER AND FOG
THROUGH NOON. PATCHY FOG AND DRIZZLE CHANCES WILL RETURN
OVERNIGHT/EARLY SUN... AS ANOTHER WEAK FRONT/H500 SHORT WAVE MOVES
INTO THE REGION. DRIZZLE CHANCES WILL BE BEST AHEAD OF THE TROUGH...
WITHIN A REGION OF WEAK 290K ISENTROPIC RESPONSE... FROM SWRN TO
NORTH CENTRAL OK. DRIZZLE CHANCES WILL CONTINUE THROUGH SUNDAY
ACROSS CENTRAL AND NRN OK... WITH RAIN CHCS ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL OK
INCREASING SUN NIGHT/EARLY MON AS THE INITIAL SFC FRONT FINALLY
PUSHES ACROSS OK/KS.

FOR MONDAY... AHEAD OF A STRONGER COLD FRONT PUSHING SOUTH ACROSS
THE PLAINS... S/SW FLOW WILL INCREASE... ALLOWING HIGHS TO PUSH NEAR
60 AS FAR NORTH AS OKC... WITH MID 60S ACROSS TEXOMA. MOISTURE
RETURN WILL BE LIMITED AHEAD OF THE FRONTS ARRIVAL... BUT THERE WILL
REMAIN A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR ISOLATED SHOWERS ACROSS SRN OK/WRN N TX
OVERNIGHT INTO TUE MORNING. TEMPS WILL BE MARKEDLY COOLER... WITH
HIGHS IN THE MID 40S TUE. TEMPS WILL ONLY REBOUND GRADUALLY WED...
WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW/MID 50S.

FOR CHRISTMAS... EXPECT MILD AND DRY CONDITIONS... THE GFS REMAINS
THE WARMER... ALBEIT ONLY SLIGHTLY... OF THE LONG RANGE GUIDANCE AS
SW WINDS INCREASE AHEAD OF ANOTHER STRONG COLD FRONT. EITHER WAY...
LOOKS TO BE A PLEASANT DAY... WITH SOUTHERLY WINDS AND HIGHS RANGING
FROM THE MID 50S IN NRN OK TO THE MID 60S IN WRN N TX. INTO THE
EVENING... THE ECMWF REMAINS FASTER WITH THE FRONTAL TIMING... BUT
ONLY SLIGHTLY. IT REMAINS A RELATIVELY DRY PASSAGE AT FIRST... WITH
SOME SLIGHT CHANCES OF RAIN/SCT SHOWERS ON FRIDAY... AND A RETURN OF
COLDER WEATHER.

JTK

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  34  50  37  51 /   0   0  10  10
HOBART OK         34  49  37  52 /   0   0  10  10
WICHITA FALLS TX  37  51  38  56 /   0   0  10  10
GAGE OK           28  51  33  53 /   0   0  10  10
PONCA CITY OK     31  49  35  50 /   0   0  10  10
DURANT OK         39  50  38  52 /  10  10  10  10

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

25/17/17



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