Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Oklahoma City, OK

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FXUS64 KOUN 171553 AAA

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Norman OK
953 AM CST Sun Dec 17 2017

Added fog mention today for locations southeast of a Waurika to
Pauls Valley to Holdenville line. Added patchy fog mention tonight
into Monday morning east of a Medford to Enid to Lawton to
Henrietta, Texas line. Lowered afternoon highs today east of a
Medford to Enid to Lawton to Henrietta, Texas line. Removed
drizzle mention today. Adjusted sky cover today, generally to
increase it.


Cloud cover will be stubborn to erode today, especially east of a
Medford to Enid to Lawton to Henrietta, Texas line where low
levels are quite moist from rainfall that occurred last night and
early this morning. Fog, possibly dense, is another concern east
of this line, especially tonight into Monday morning.

Latest observations at of 945 am depicted visibilities 1 to 3
miles from Ardmore to Durant to Ada to Atoka. With weak low level
southerly winds and increasing low level moisture advection
combined with a very low sun angle, think this fog will be slow
to erode during the day today and may actually expand northward.
Thus, added mention of fog in these areas today.

Dense fog (visibilities 1/4 mile or less) may become a big
concern tonight into Monday morning east of a Medford to Enid to
Lawton to Henrietta, Texas line, including the Oklahoma City,
Ponca City, Stillwater, Pauls Valley, Ardmore, Durant, and Atoka
areas due to abundant low level moisture with surface dewpoints in
the 40s and light generally southerly winds. The 09 UTC HRRRX
indicated this potential. Not sure how widespread or dense the fog
will become, especially as cloud cover 300-2000 ft AGL may not
erode and limit radiational cooling. However, if clouds clear
tonight, dense fog would be possible in these areas. There could
be a small chance of freezing fog as well with temperatures
approaching 32F tonight in these areas, assuming skies clear and
allow for sufficient radiational cooling. Will closely monitor.

Cloud cover and fog will keep temperatures from rising much
east of a Medford to Enid to Lawton to Henrietta, Texas line today,
thus lowered them thinking temperatures will not get out of the
40s. West of this line, some clearing should occur this afternoon
and allow temperatures to rise into 50s and lower 60s in western
north Texas.

Do not think any more light rain/drizzle will occur today due to
the lack of deep moisture and due to large scale mid and upper
level subsidence over Oklahoma and north Texas.

Products will be updated shortly.



.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 642 AM CST Sun Dec 17 2017/

Added mention of patchy drizzle to central Oklahoma this morning.

Small area of drizzle visible at the lowest returns nearest KTLX
this morning. Additionally, a few reports of drizzle have come in
this morning. Observations at OKC and Norman are for light fog,
but mist/drizzle are the more likely culprit. Will leave the
drizzle mention in through sunrise.


PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 551 AM CST Sun Dec 17 2017/

17/12Z TAFs. IFR/LIFR conditions expected to continue at most
terminals through at least 16Z, with slowest improvement across
central into north-central Oklahoma thereafter. VFR evolution
expected across western Oklahoma down to KSPS 15-18Z with MVFR
likely to linger across KOKC/KOUN up to KPNC through the
afternoon. In these areas, will keep the MVFR conditions late
today through end of forecast with potential for MVFR to IFR
conditions near and east of weakening surface trough.

PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 426 AM CST Sun Dec 17 2017/

Clouds will be slow to clear today across the eastern half of
Oklahoma, east of weakening boundary that will try to bring somewhat
drier air into western parts of Oklahoma and western north Texas.
Southern and central/eastern Oklahoma will remain dominated in
mainly south and southeast flow next few days which will keep a
marginal threat for fog and stratus each morning Monday through
Thursday, until a strong cold front passes over the region during
the day Thursday. Ahead of this cold front, there will be chances
for rain late Monday through Tuesday night. The ECM, which has
been the most aggressive model with precip, is trending toward the
more progressive and drier GFS and NAM. Greatest chances for rain
will be over southeast Oklahoma Tuesday afternoon/evening as
height falls spread quickly over northern Texas.

Still looks like at least elevated fire weather on Thursday,
primarily across southwest Oklahoma and western north Texas where
drier and warmer conditions will be seen ahead of the front.
Although it will be breezy ahead of the cold front, northerly
winds behind the front will be much stronger.

The highest impacts through the forecast period will be potential
for post frontal precipitation. All models have trended less
aggressive with wintry precipitation and this makes sense given
the drier meridional flow regime. We can still see respectable
snow accumulations with this pattern, but given the more
progressive s/wvs and developing large northeast cyclone, looks
mainly dry and quite cold to end 2017.


Oklahoma City OK  50  40  62  45 /   0   0   0  10
Hobart OK         54  31  60  41 /   0   0  10  10
Wichita Falls TX  60  39  63  47 /   0   0  10  10
Gage OK           51  27  62  36 /   0   0   0   0
Ponca City OK     49  35  61  41 /  10   0   0   0
Durant OK         49  43  62  51 /  10   0  20  30




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