Area Forecast Discussion
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FXUS61 KPBZ 041406
AFDPBZ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pittsburgh PA
906 AM EST Sun Dec 4 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
An unsettled weather pattern will continue through the week, with
much colder air arriving for late week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
With 9am update, only minimal changes were made to hourly
temperature and sky trends.

Previous...
As the surface high shifts east later today increasing mid and
high level moisture will will keep skies cloudy, as complex
northern and southern stream shortwaves approach. Weak warm
advection will keep temperatures near the seasonal averages this
afternoon.

Tonight...shortwaves in the northern and southern stream will
quickly move east with a frontal boundary. As precip begins expect
some wet bulbing, and this looks to allow for a rain snow mix over
much of the area, with a period of freezing rain possible across
the higher ridge elevations mainly in the evening. Still quite a
bit of uncertainty on how long below freezing temperatures can
remain in the ridges, so for now will highlight freezing rain
possibility in the HWO. Elsewhere little snow accumulation is
expected with weak warm advection helping temperatures to warm a
bit overnight.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
System will exit east early monday morning with precipitation
ending. By later Monday night and Tuesday a strengthening low
pressure area will move toward the lower Ohio Valley with rain
spreading northeast across the region. Precip may start as a bit
of freezing rain in the pre-dawn hours Tuesday, but strong warm
advection will quickly bring plain rain for the daylight hours
Tuesday. This system exits by Wednesday morning. Temperatures will
be near the seasonal averages through much of the period, with the
exception of above average temperatures Tuesday.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
The next widespread chance for precipitation arriving on Thursday
with a potent cold front. Behind the front, the coldest air of the
season will move in for Friday and into the weekend. Snow showers
will continue in cold advection behind the front.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
With high pressure, albeit moisture laden, sliding over the
region, some restricted cigs in stratus north of PIT will persist
this morning. Otherwise, VFR and light sfc wind will prevail
despite extensive mid/upr cloudiness supported by warm, moist
advection in advance of an advancing shortwave.

That system will spread precip and deteriorate conditions to low
MVFR and IFR for tonight and early Monday.

.OUTLOOK...
More restrictions are likely with mid week low pressure.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...None.
OH...None.
PA...None.
WV...None.

&&

$$


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