Area Forecast Discussion
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000
FXUS61 KPBZ 010141
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
941 PM EDT FRI JUL 31 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
MAINLY DRY WEATHER AND SEASONAL TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
SUNDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS STILL BACK IN NW OHIO. MINOR RIPPLES IN THE
PASSING SHALLOW MIDLEVEL TROUGH HAVE MANAGED TO SUPPORT A FEW
ISOLATED SHRA IN THE RELATIVELY DRY AIRMASS AHEAD OF THE FRONT.
PIT/ILN SOUNDINGS SHOWING VERY LITTLE MOISTURE ABOVE 12K
FEET...AND THUS EXPECT PRECIPITATION TO REMAIN ISOLATED AND WEAK
FOR THE MOST PART. A COUPLE OF HEAVIER SHOWERS COULD SKIRT
MERCER/VENANGO OVER THE NEXT HOUR OR TWO. MAINTAINED SLIGHT
CHANCE POPS AHEAD OF THE BOUNDARY...AND ALSO UPDATED THE SKY COVER
FORECAST. REMOVED THUNDER CHANCES GIVEN THE SHALLOW MOISTURE AND
LACK OF INSTABILITY. TEMPERATURES WERE MORE OR LESS ON TRACK AND
UPDATED THESE SLIGHTLY WITH LAMP GUIDANCE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
EXPECT DRY WEATHER SATURDAY NIGHT. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE
AREA SUNDAY AND CROSS THE REGION LATE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY.
MODEL CONTINUE TO STRUGGLE WITH THE TIMING OF THE FRONT...AND HAVE
NOT BEEN CONSISTENT FROM DAY TO DAY. CONSIDERING YESTERDAYS 12Z
MODELS SPED UP FRONTAL TIMING WHILE LAST NIGHTS 00Z MODELS DELAYED
THE FRONTAL TIMING...WILL NOT MAKE MUCH CHANGES TO PRECIP TIMING
EVEN THOUGH TODAYS 12Z MODELS SHOW SOME CONSISTENCY WITH 00Z MODELS.
AT THIS POINT...SREF CERTAINLY SEEMS TO BE THE FAST OUTLIER COMPARED
TO DETERMINISTIC MODELS. DEPENDING ON WHEN THE FRONT PASSES ON
MONDAY...IT APPEARS THAT MODEST VALUES OF INSTABILITY AND WIND SHEAR
COULD ALLOW FOR STRONGER THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE AFTERNOON.
TEMPERATURE TRENDS SHOULD CHANGE LITTLE WITH SEASONAL VALUES FOR
EARLY AUGUST.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A BROAD EASTERN CONUS UPPER TROUGH IS PROGGED TO PERSIST THROUGH THE
PERIOD WITH SLIGHTLY COOLER THAN AVERAGE TEMPERATURES. MUCH OF THE
TIME SHOULD BE DRY...THOUGH A FEW SHORTWAVES ADVANCING THROUGH THE
TROUGH SHOULD BRING PERIODIC SHOWER CHANCES. FOLLOWED CLOSE TO WPC
ENSEMBLE BASED GUIDANCE TO SMOOTH OUT INDIVIDUAL MODEL
DIFFERENCES...THOUGH DID ADJUST GUIDANCE POPS DOWNWARD WITH
SHORTWAVE TIMING AND AVAILABLE MOISTURE IN QUESTION.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITH BKN CLDS OVERNIGHT ASSOCIATED
WITH A WEAK SHORTWAVE AND INCREASED MOISTURE. LITTLE IF ANY
PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD...WITH THE GREATEST
CHANCE NEAR ZZV. TOMORROW...EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS WITH BKN DIURNAL
CU AND WNW WINDS GENERALLY 10 KNTS GUSTING TO 15 KNTS.

OUTLOOK...SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...
RESTRICTION POTENTIAL RETURNS EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH CROSSING
DISTURBANCES.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$



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