Area Forecast Discussion
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FXUS61 KPBZ 191529
AFDPBZ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pittsburgh PA
1129 AM EDT Thu Oct 19 2017

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure will maintain dry and warm weather through the
weekend.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Clear skies today will only briefly be interrupted by a weak and
dry cold front dragged through by a high latitude system moving
east near James Bay. This will stunt the day-to-day warming
trend that we`ve seen over the last several days, keeping highs
near yesterday`s readings.

Several models show low-level moisture associated with the weak
front, dropping down from the southern Great Lakes this
evening, eventually pooling near the higher elevations. This
could bring additional cloud cover overnight to these areas, but
the forecast will keep it scattered for now.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
High pressure will re-build through the weekend, keeping it warm
and dry. Despite an increase in cirrus and the ridge axis
shifting east Saturday, increasing southwesterly flow will
allow temperatures to climb further on Sunday. Highs Sunday will
be about 15 degrees above average.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
High pressure will push east allowing a cold front to reach the area
late Sunday night into Monday, with a second cold front pushing east
by Tuesday. Models also indicate an upper level trough should
build across the region late in the period.

Expect precipitation chances will increase from the west Sunday
night with unsettled weather through the remainder of the period.

Temperatures aloft will become quite cool/cold with the trough
building in. However, surface temperatures should act to keep
the precipitation in the form of a cold rain.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
High pressure will maintain VFR today. By afternoon, a somewhat
tighter pressure gradient, will support gusts around 15 to
20kts.

.Outlook...
Restrictions are likely with a Monday cold front.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...None.
OH...None.
PA...None.
WV...None.

&&

$$



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