Area Forecast Discussion
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FXUS61 KPBZ 260408
AFDPBZ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pittsburgh PA
1208 AM EDT Sun Mar 26 2017

.SYNOPSIS...
Warm temperature will be marred by rain today and Tuesday as a
series of low pressure areas cross the region. A Tuesday cold
front will drop readings back toward the averages.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
Shortwave ridging in advance of midwestern low pressure continues
to suppress precip over the Upper Ohio Region despite the presence
of a stalled front analyzed just north of the Pittsburgh area.

That situation will change today as the low is forecast to continue
digging eastward, escalating POPs from the west as the system
trundles toward the Lakes. A general half, to three quarters of
an inch of rainfall is expected with the passage, and in the
wake of the systems occluded front during the next 24 hours.

Thunderstorm formation is progged to be hampered by meager
instability, although deep layer shear will be favorable for
severe as usual this time of year with the crossing low. At any
rate, overall parameters do not support organized severe storms,
and instability is only sufficient for a chance mention with the
categorical rain.

Rain chances will fade quickly on Monday morning as the weakening
trough slides eastward. Given the occluded nature of the front,
warm temperature will be maintained in its wake.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Shortwave ridging is timed to keep much of Monday dry, but
another midwestern shortwave, albeit weaker is likely to
generate more precip on Monday night and Tuesday. That system
is projected to pull a cold front across the region later on
Tuesday which will drop temperatures closer to the seasonal
averages.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
With high pressure settling in behind Tuesday`s cold front and
northerly flow developing, dry and seasonable weather is
expected Tuesday night through Thursday. By Thursday evening,
the GFS and ECMWF begin to show diverging forecasts, with one
model showing low pressure over Lake Huron by Saturday morning
and the other model showing low pressure across Tennessee. Have
stuck close to the Superblend through this part of the forecast.

&&

.AVIATION /04Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
VFR conditions are expected under shortwave ridging through
at least the first half of the day for most ports, although
moist SE upslope flow could result in MVFR ceilings later tonight
through Sunday for DUJ and possibly FKL. E winds should veer to
the SE as a weak surface boundary/warm front moves N across the
area.

Low pressure is progged to track across the OH valley/lower
Great Lakes later today, with increasing shower chances and
condition deterioration to MVFR from W-E during the afternoon
and evening. A thunderstorm is possible especially for ZZV
though low chances and limited instability preclude a TAF
mention.

Outlook...
Restrictions are expected to continue Sunday night with the
crossing low. Restrictions are likely again Mon night/Tue with a
crossing cold front.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...None.
OH...None.
PA...None.
WV...None.

&&

$$



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