Area Forecast Discussion
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040
FXUS61 KPBZ 241029
AFDPBZ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pittsburgh PA
529 AM EST Fri Feb 24 2017

.SYNOPSIS...
Record breaking temperatures today will be followed by a cold
front late tonight into early Saturday morning with rain along
the front, gusty winds through much of Saturday, and
temperatures steadily dropping back to near normal by Sunday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
No updates needed early this morning as the ongoing forecast
aligns well with latest observations. Previous discussion
follows..

With the forecast area well within the warm sector, forecast
confidence is high in regards to high temperatures today and are
expected to rise into the 70s with isolated 80 degree
readings...breaking records at all climate locations. Long-term
confidence tools have not deviated from suggesting the prolonged
warm period we have been in this week and with increased warm
advection and mixing ahead of the approaching cold front along
with a break in cloud coverage during the afternoon...we are
going to see the warmest temperatures of the year and will
easily break current records.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Latest model runs show good continuity in regards to timing of a
strong cold front overnight through Saturday morning...with the
general consensus progging the front crossing Pittsburgh around
sunrise Saturday. Based on the synoptic setup...anticipate a
solid line of moderate rain with the potential for embedded
thunderstorms along the front. SPC has maintained a slight risk
for severe weather across most Ohio counties and a marginal
risk elsewhere in the forecast area. Strong and gusty winds are
likely as the front passes and again behind as the pressure
gradient tightens with gusts up to 40 mph possible based on
latest guidance and analogs.

Regarding precipitation...the bulk of rainfall will be along the
front which will have moved east of the ridges by Saturday
afternoon.

A brief lull in precipitation behind the front will be followed
by scattered lake enhanced showers Saturday night under of
cold northwesterly flow...eventually changing over to snow with
minimal accumulations. precipitation will end by Sunday morning
as high pressure builds back in from the west.

While temperatures will remain in the 50s Friday night, temps
will fall all of Saturday and Saturday night, eventually
bottoming out in the 20s. Seasonal highs around 40 are forecast
on Sunday.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Broad southwest flow aloft will persist through the first half
of the period, being then replaced by eastern CONUS trough by
the end of the week. Despite the relatively good agreement in
the upper level pattern, the deterministic guidance varies in
the timing and speed of the more amplified low pressure system
for the middle of the week which translated to timing
differences thereafter. Thus, opted to stay close to previous
forecast with only minor tweaks based on the newest model runs.

Temperatures continue to trend above seasonal averages, with
values close to 20 degrees above normal before the frontal
passage midweek. After that time, we cool back down.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Looking at a general VFR forecast through the period, with the
exception of FKL and DUJ, which may see MVFR cigs this evening.
Hit or miss showers, or a brief storm, is possible during the
evening at all ports with the exception of MGW and LBE. The best
chance to see showers will be a FKL and DUJ, due to their close
proximity to the surface front. If restrictions do occur with
the activity, they will be short lived. Late tonight, all ports
will return to VFR, as the aforementioned surface front moves
northward.

Only concern for the forecast on Friday will be the
strengthening SW winds. Wind gusts of 15 to 25 kts are possible
at all ports during the afternoon.

.OUTLOOK...
Widespread restrictions are likely with the approach and passage
of a cold front on Friday night and early Saturday.

&&

.CLIMATE...
Record high temperatures for climate sites:

            Thu              Fri
          --------        --------
PIT       70 (1922)       70 (1875,1906)
ZZV       64 (2000)       70 (1961)
MGW       68 (1996)       75 (1975)
DUJ       63 (1985)       60 (1985)
HLG       62 (2000)       63 (2016)
PHD       69 (1975)       66 (1985)

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...None.
OH...None.
PA...None.
WV...None.

&&

$$



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