Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS
FXUS61 KPBZ 310129
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pittsburgh PA
929 PM EDT MON MAY 30 2016
Dry and seasonably warm weather can then be expected into mid
week. Another disturbance will increase rain chances Thursday.
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
Showers and cloud cover associated with the front are now east of
the area. The change in airmass behind the front is minor...with
slightly lower dewpoints present. Clear skies and calm winds
tonight under high pressure could lead to some patchy fog
development as with previous nights.
Otherwise...clear skies tonight will give way to abundant
sunshine Tuesday. Again, with little change in airmass, high
temperatures Tuesday will be near Monday`s readings...about 5
degrees above average.
.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Subsidence with that high is expected to maintain dry weather into
Wednesday with temperatures warming into the mid 80s again. Thereafter,
general model agreement is of a mid level trough and associated cold
front approaching Wednesday night and over the region Thursday.
Have generally persisted with precipitation probabilities, which
were gradually escalated on Wednesday night and into Thursday
despite some guidance indicating more rapid onset. Above average
temperatures are anticipated given the warm, moist advection in
advance of that feature, forecast for which was constructed via
tweaked superblend guidance.
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
Model guidance suggests that the front will lag in complete passage
through Friday; thus, chance pops were maintained. Despite some
upper level pattern differences by Saturday, model consensus
suggests a deepening trough over the eastern-CONUS/Great Lakes as
a ridge builds in the west. A series of shortwaves within flow are
progged to maintain shower chances through this period. Given the
uncertainty in timing of those disturbances, will keep pops and
temperatures at or below superblend guidance.
.AVIATION /02Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Building high pressure will ensure general VFR through the period.
The exception will come in the pre-dawn hours where patchy light
fog is possible. With slightly lower dewpoints...confidence in
placement and extent of fog is rather low...so general MVFR BR has
been carried for all locations.
.OUTLOOK /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Restrictions are likely with a late week cold front.