Area Forecast Discussion
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FXUS61 KPBZ 220121
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
921 PM EDT SUN SEP 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
DRY WEATHER CAN BE EXPECTED FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK WHILE
INITIALLY COLD TEMPERATURES SLOWLY MODERATE.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
NO MAJOR CHANGES WERE NEEDED FOR THE LATE EVE UPDATE.

PREVIOUS...
EARLY EVE UPDATE WAS ISSUED TO FURTHER ADJUST HOURLY TRENDS AS
CDFNT FEATURING A 10 TO 15 DEGREE DEWPOINT DROP HAS ABOUT
COMPLETED A SWEEP OF THE UPR OH VALLEY REGION.

COLD ADVCTN WITH A REINFORCING FRONT WL SPPRT SOME ISOLD TO SCT
SHWRS LTR THIS EVE...AND THE OVRNGT HRS...BUT BY MONDAY MRNG...PROJECTED
INVERSION LVLS ARE LOW ENUF DESPITE UPR TROFG TO REDUCE POPS.

NEVERTHELESS...THE COLD FLOW OFF THE LAKES WL MAINTAIN AN
EXTENSIVE STRATOCU BLANKET ON MONDAY AND TEMPS WL LIKELY BE
CONFINED TO THE 50S FOR MOST AREAS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE MID/UPR TROUGH IF PROJECTED TO LIFT OUT QUICKLY AT THE START
OF THIS PERIOD WITH BROAD RIDGING ENSUING OVR MUCH OF THE CONUS.
THE COLD START TO THE WEEK WITH THUS BE GRADUALLY MODERATED BY
WEDNESDAY...WITH DRY CONDITIONS THROUGHOUT THE SHORT TERM.

TEMPS WERE FORECAST USING GFS MOS...ALTHOUGH TWEAKS FOR A GREATER
DIURNAL RANGE IN THE DRY AIRMASS WERE INCLUDED.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
TEMPS ARE FORECAST TO CONT WARMING ABOVE THE SEASONAL AVGS AS THE
AFOREMENTIONED UPR RIDGE EXPANDS. ALTHOUGH THE ECMWF CONTS TO
HINT AT A WEAK INVERTED TROUGH DEVELOPING OVR THE MID ATLANTIC
COAST...THAT SOLN IS AGAIN OUT OF PHASE WITH THE GFS...AND
PERSISTENCE IN A DRY FORECAST MUST RULE UNDR THE ANTICIPATED RIDGE.

&&

.AVIATION /01Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
COLD ADVCTN IN THE WAKE OF THIS EVENINGS FROPA WL PROMOTE DVLPMT
OF A STRATOCU DECK AS THE EVE PROGRESSES. THAT BLANKET IS EXPECTED
TO PERSIST AT MVFR LVLS INTO MONDAY AFTN. BRIEF IFR CLGS CAN BE
EXPECTED AT KFKL AND KDUJ. ISOLD TO SCT SHWRS ARE ALSO
ANTICIPATED AS THE UPR LOW DIGS OVR THE REGION...BUT INVERSION
LVLS LK SUFFICIENTLY LOW BY MONDAY MRNG TO SUPPRESS FURTHER PCPN.

OUTLOOK.../MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
GENL VFR IS EXPECTED FOR THE RMNDR OF THE WEEK.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$






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