Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS

Home | Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | Print | Product List | Glossary On
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50
000
FXUS61 KPBZ 260511
AFDPBZ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pittsburgh PA
111 AM EDT Mon Sep 26 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
Showers and scattered thunderstorms can be expected with the
passage of cold front Monday. More seasonable temperatures are
expected for the rest of the week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
Quiet night expected ahead of an approaching cold front currently
analyzed over Indiana. Despite little cloud cover beside some
high cirrus and light wind, tonight will not be an optimal
radiational cooling night as dewpoints will be creeping up faster
than temperatures will have the ability to fall with moisture
advecting northward in advance of the front. Deeper moisture
manifesting itself as stratus will likely hold east of the ridges
however in the weak easterly surface flow. Made only minor
adjustments to the forecast through the early morning hours at
this time to slow the fall of temperatures based on observed
values.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A deepening mid level trough is projected to close over the
Northern Great Lakes on Monday as it drives a cold front across
the Upper Ohio. Likely to categorical precip probabilities are
forecast with this eventuality, while increasing deep layer shear
may support possible severe thunderstorms. That potential will be
dependent on timing, surface dewpoints, clouds, and resulting
instability levels, magnitude of which does not look strong enough
to initiate any alarms today.

Showers are forecast to exit eastward with the front during the
evening with dry and cooler conditions following on Tuesday. By
Wednesday, the closed low is progged to dig southeastward across
the Great Lakes, and increase clouds and shower chances for the
immediate area. Temperature about 5 degrees under the rapidly
falling averages was forecast using Superblend guidance.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
The latest deterministic trends are of a persistent cutoff low
somewhere over the Mid Atlantic or Great Lakes States during the
long term. Have opted for a NAEFS mean solution which is of
troughing over the Upper Ohio, without the inconsistent magnitude
of the latest ECMWF and GFS solutions. Long term POPs are thus in
the slight, to low-end chance range, with a temperature prog which
allows a recovery to, then a couple degrees above the seasonal
averages by next weekend.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
General VFR is forecast through Monday morning with condition
deterioration thereafter in response to precip with an approaching
cold front. Generally expecting MVFR restrictions accompanying any
stronger shower or thunderstorm, but temporary IFR visibilities
and gusty winds cannot be ruled out.

Winds will gradually strengthen Monday morning as they swing
around from the south. A sharp wind shift to the west will then
accompany the cold front, with gusts occasionally 15-20 knots.

.OUTLOOK /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
The next chance for restriction is expected under deepening mid
week low pressure.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...None.
OH...None.
PA...None.
WV...None.

&&

$$


USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.