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000
FXUS61 KPHI 221030
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
630 AM EDT TUE JUL 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE AREA TODAY...BEFORE
MOVING EAST TONIGHT. LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE ACROSS SOUTHERN CANADA
AND BRING A COLD FRONT TO OUR AREA WEDNESDAY THROUGH EARLY THURSDAY.
MORE HIGH PRESSURE WILL FOLLOW FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. ANOTHER
LOW AND ITS ASSOCIATED FRONTS WILL AFFECT THE WEATHER FOR SUNDAY
AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
TODAY...CURRENTLY AT 10Z PATCHY CLOUDINESS POCONOS MOVING
NORTHWARD...AND THE BIGGER N-S BAND FROM CENTRAL PA TO DC EDGING
EAST WITH PATCHY CLOUDINESS JUST W OF KPHL TO THRU CHESTER COUNTY.

ALL THIS WITH SOME PATCHY THIN FOG.

AFTER 12Z...JUST ANOTHER SEASONABLE SUMMER DAY WITH A SMALL CHC OF A
SHOWER OR ISOLATED TSTM VCNTY I78 NWWD THIS AFTN IN RESPONSE TO AN
APPARENT MID LVL SHORT WAVE MOVING SEWD FROM NYS MAKING A WEAK
INSTABILITY BURST DURING THE EARLY AFTN NW FRINGE OF OUR AREA.
MESOSCALE MODELS ARE SPARSE ON THE SHOWERS IN E PA AND NNJ AND SO
THEY SHOULDNT MAKE MUCH IMPACT...IF ANY.

OTHERWISE ITS A PREDOMINANTLY MOSTLY SUNNY DAY.

THERE MAY BE MORE CLOUDINESS AROUND SE PA - NE MD AND FAR N DE
TODAY THAN CURRENTLY FCST?

LIGHT SOUTH WIND WITH SCT AFTN GUSTS TO 15 MPH. THE AFTN WIND
DIRECTION TURNS SSE IN DE AND THE NJ SHORE OTRW SSW ELSEWHERE.

GENERALLY 50 50 BLENDED 00Z/22 NAM/GFS GUIDANCE EXCEPT MAV DEW
POINTS THIS MORNING AND TONIGHT AND THE DRIER NAM DEWPOINTS MIXED
IN THIS AFTN.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM WEDNESDAY/...
A TAD MILDER THAN IT WAS THIS MORNING WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES...LIGHT
S-SW WIND AND PATCHY ST/FOG LATE AT NIGHT...MAINLY E PA AND NW NJ. ANY
SHOWERS FROM THE AFTN HOURS SHOULD RAPIDLY DISSIPATE BEFORE
00Z/23.

THIS WAS A 50 50 BLENDED 00Z/22 NAM/GFS FCST.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
WEDNESDAY THROUGH EARLY THURSDAY...A COLD FRONT WILL BE WEST OF THE
AREA WEDNESDAY MORNING AND IT WILL CROSS THE AREA WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON AND OVERNIGHT. SHOWERS AND TSTMS ARE EXPECTED WITH THE
FROPA. THE SPC DOES NOT HAVE OUR AREA IN A SLGT RISK FOR SVR ON
DAY2...BUT THE AREA IS TO THE NORTH ACROSS NEW ENGLAND...THE 5PCT
LINE IS ACROSS NE PA AND NRN NJ...SO WE WILL MONITOR THIS FURTHER
LATER TODAY. A FEW SHOWERS MAY LINGER ACROSS SRN NJ AND THE DELMARVA
INTO THU MORNING. WED WILL FEATURE HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS WITH
HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S AND LOW 90S. APPARENT TEMPS IN THE MID/UPPER
90S MOST AREAS.

LATER THU THROUGH SATURDAY...IMPROVING WEATHER WITH HIGH PRESSURE
MOVING INTO THE AREA. LOWER DEW POINTS AND TEMPERATURES MOSTLY LOW
80S ACROSS THE AREA. THE GFS MODEL IS SHOWING A FEW SHOWERS SAT
AFTERNOON...BUT HAVE DECIDED TO KEEP THEM OUT FOR NOW WITH THE
BETTER CHC FOR RAINS ARRIVING LATER SAT AND INTO SUNDAY.

SAT NIGHT THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK... THE WEATHER WORSENS SAT NIGHT
AND POOR CONDITIONS EXPECTED INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH A UPPER LOW
AND SERIES OF FRONTS SLATED TO AFFECT THE AREA. THERE WILL BE AT
LEAST CHC POPS EACH DAY...SUN THRU TUE...WITH TSTMS POSSIBLE DURING
THE AFTERNOON PERIODS. TEMPERATURES WILL BE A FEW DEGREES BELOW
NORMAL FOR LATE JULY WITH PLENTY OF CLOUDS EXPECTED.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG,
KILG, KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

THROUGH 12Z...PATCHY CIGS BELOW 5000 FT JUST W OF PHL SHOULD STAY
WEST OF PHL. LARGER N-S BAND OF LOWER CIGS CENTRAL PA TO DCA EDGING
EAST SHOULD NOT ARRIVE IN KPHL OR BE A FACTOR IN KPHL FCST TODAY.
PATCHY THIN FOG DISSIPATES SHORTLY.

AFTER 12Z...VFR WITH SCT-BKN CLOUDS NEAR 2000 FT SE PA...NE MD
AND DE THIS MORNING OTRW BECOMING SCT-BKN CLOUDS AROUND 5000 FT
MIDDAY/EARLY AFTN EVERYWHERE. S-SW WIND G NEAR 13 KT THIS AFTN
EXCEPT S-SE ALONG THE SHORE THIS AFTN AND IN DELAWARE.

TONIGHT...VFR WITH A CHANCE OF IFR ST/FOG AFTER 06Z IN THE COUNTRYSIDE
TAF LOCATIONS SUCH AS KRDG AND KMIV. LIGHT S-SW WIND.

OUTLOOK...
WEDNESDAY...MAINLY VFR. POSSIBLE EARLY MORNING MVFR OR IFR CONDITIONS
IN LOW CLOUDS, FOG AND HAZE. A CHANCE OF AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY...MVFR AND IFR CONDITIONS AT TIMES
IN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. PATCHY FOG THU MORNING.

THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...MAINLY VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
SUB-SCA CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE WATERS THROUGH TONIGHT.
SEAS REMAIN NEARLY IN STEADY STATE AROUND 3 FEET ON THE ATLC WATERS
AND 2 FT OR LESS DE BAY. WINDS GENERALLY SOUTHERLY WITH A FEW AFTN
GUSTS 15 KT.

OUTLOOK...
WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...SUB-SCA CONDITIONS EXPECTED. OCNL
TSTMS ON THE WATERS WED NIGHT MAY CREATE LOCALLY HIGHER WINDS
AND SEAS.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...O`HARA
NEAR TERM...DRAG 630A
SHORT TERM...DRAG
LONG TERM...O`HARA
AVIATION...DRAG/O`HARA 630A
MARINE...DRAG/O`HARA