Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Pocatello, ID

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000
FXUS65 KPIH 230822
AFDPIH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE POCATELLO ID
222 AM MDT THU OCT 23 2014

.DISCUSSION...A DEEP UPPER LOW IS SPINNING OFF THE BC COAST AND IS
RESULTING IN SOME MODEST MOISTURE TRANSPORT OVER THE INLAND
NORTHWEST. MODELS SEEM TO BE TRENDING A BIT WETTER FOR THE DAY TODAY
AND INTO TOMORROW...PARTICULARLY OVER THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS. HAVE
BUMPED UP POPS AND QPF ACCORDINGLY. PATTERN BEGINS TO AMPLIFY FRIDAY
EVENING PUSHING MOISTURE FURTHER NORTH AND DRIER/WARMER AIR EXPECTED
TO BE IN PLACE ON SATURDAY. MODELS ARE PUSHING UPPER TROUGH INLAND
EARLY SUNDAY MORNING AND QUICKLY PUSHING MOISTURE ACROSS SOUTHEAST
IDAHO THROUGHOUT THE DAY SUNDAY WHILE THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS PUSHES
THROUGH LATE SUNDAY NIGHT. GFS/ECMWF SUGGEST ANOTHER ROUND OF PRECIP
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...BUT ARE NOT SHOWING MUCH CONSISTENCY WITH
TIMING. THUS DID NOT MAKE MAJOR CHANGES TO EXTENDED PERIODS. GFS IS
SHOWING A WETTER REGIME AS IT CONTAINS MOISTURE FROM TROPICAL SYSTEM
ANA. THE TROPICAL SOURCE OF THE MOISTURE SHOULD KEEP SNOW LEVELS
TUES/WED ABOVE 6000 FT. OTHERWISE SNOW LEVELS DIP AROUND 5000-5500
FT SUNDAY NIGHT AS UPPER TROUGH AXIS PASSES THROUGH SOUTHEAST
IDAHO. HINSBERGER
&&

.AVIATION...STRONG SW FLOW ALOFT IS BRINGING PAC MOISTURE INTO THE
BROAD UPPER RIDGE OVER REGION TODAY. SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THE
CENTRAL MTNS WHERE THE MOIST FLOW INTERACTS WITH HIGHER TERRAIN. THE
SNAKE RIVER PLAIN/EASTERN MAGIC VALLEY SHOULD REMAIN DRY. VFR
CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL. HEDGES
&&

.FIRE WEATHER...PACIFIC MOISTURE FLOWING INTO THE BROAD UPPER RIDGE
OVER THE ROCKIES WILL PRODUCE SHOWERS OVER THE CENTRAL IDAHO
MOUNTAINS TODAY AND FRIDAY WHERE THE FLOW INTERACTS WITH THE HIGHER
TERRAIN. THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN DRY. THE
UPPER RIDGE WILL BUILD UP MORE ON FRIDAY...EVENTUALLY PUSHING THE
MOISTURE FLOW WELL TO THE NORTH THROUGH SATURDAY. A DEEP UPPER
TROUGH MOVES INTO THE PAC NW ON SUNDAY. THIS SYSTEM WILL SPREAD
PRECIPITATION OVER MUCH OF THE AREA ON SUNDAY...ALONG WITH COOLER
TEMPERATURES. COOL AND WETTER CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK. HEDGES
&&


.PIH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&

$$




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