Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Pocatello, ID

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FXUS65 KPIH 141058
AFDPIH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE POCATELLO ID
358 AM MST SUN FEB 14 2016

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY...RADAR THIS MORNING SHOWING
AREAS OF LIGHT RAIN IN THE EASTERN MAGIC VALLEY/SOUTH SNAKE RIVER
PLAIN AREAS PROGRESSING GENERALLY SOUTHEASTERLY. AREAS OF LIGHT
SNOW ARE NOTED IN THE EASTERN HIGHLANDS. THROUGH THE MORNING
HOURS AND EARLY AFTERNOON EXPECT A MIX OF RAIN/SNOW IF TRAVELING
ALONG I-15 BETWEEN IDAHO FALLS AND AMERICAN FALLS. ADDITIONALLY,
INCREASING WINDS THROUGH THIS AREA EXPECTED TO EXCEED 20-25MPH
WITH HIGHER GUSTS TODAY.

MULTIPLE, WEAK WAVES OF ENERGY TO PROGRESS SOUTHEASTWARDS ACROSS
IDAHO THIS HOLIDAY WEEKEND. THESE WAVES TO PRODUCE RAIN OR SNOW FOR
MUCH OF THE AREA TODAY, TONIGHT AND TOMORROW. THIS ACTIVITY WILL
NOT BE CONTINUOUS FOR ALL ESPECIALLY OVERNIGHT TONIGHT AND EARLY
MONDAY WHERE ACTIVITY COULD BE AT A LULL FOR AREAS SUCH AS THE
CENTRAL MOUNTAINS AND SNAKE PLAIN. INCREASING WIND SPEEDS DURING
THIS PERIOD EXPECTED TO EXCEED 25-30MPH AT TIMES ESPECIALLY AT
HIGHER ELEVATIONS DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS TODAY AND
MONDAY. THEREFORE THE THREAT FOR BLOWING AND DRIFTING SNOW IS HIGH
FOR THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN AND EASTERN HIGHLAND AREA. A WINTER
WEATHER ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE EASTERN HIGHLAND THROUGH
MONDAY AFTERNOON WHERE SNOWFALL TOTALS AND BLOWING SNOW THREAT IS
EXPECTED TO BE HIGHEST.

CONTINUED INCREASING MOISTURE EXPECTED THROUGH MONDAY BEFORE
TAPERING OFF AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS FROM THE SOUTH. SOME
LINGERING LIGHT SNOW MAY STILL FALL IN THE NORTH AND EASTERN
HIGHLANDS GOING INTO EARLY TUESDAY. NP/DMH

.LONG TERM...TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY. WEAK UPPER RIDGE
SLIDES ACROSS EAST IDAHO TUESDAY NIGHT/WEDNESDAY AHEAD OF DEEP
PACIFIC TROUGH REACHING COAST. SOME DIFFERENCES IN CENTER OF
TROUGH AS IT SWINGS INLAND WEDNESDAY NIGHT. ECMWF OPEN AND A
LITTLE BIT FASTER THAN SLIGHTLY CLOSED GFS. ENSEMBLE MEANS FAVOR
AN OPEN TROUGH WITH SPEED COMPROMISE. MOST SOLUTIONS FAVOR TROUGH
CARRYING SLIGHT NEGATIVE TILT AS IT OPENS UP AND EJECTS THROUGH
IDAHO THURSDAY. STRONG COLD FRONT DRIVES ACROSS THE STATE MIDDAY
THURSDAY WITH VALLEYS SEEING RAIN CHANGE TO SNOW OR A MIX. WINDS
SHOULD BE STRONG BEHIND THE FRONT AND HAVE CONTINUED TRENDING FCST
SPEEDS UP SLIGHTLY. FAST MOVING TROUGH SHIFTS EAST INTO THE PLAINS
THURSDAY NIGHT BUT TRANSITORY RIDGE WEAK AND UNSETTLED PER BOTH
GFS AND ECMWF. ANY AGREEMENT IN THE MODELS LOST PAST THIS
POINT...AND CONSIDERING PROGRESSIVE PACIFIC FLOW HAVE KEPT FCST
SOMEWHAT UNSETTLED HEADING INTO THE WEEKEND. DMH

&&

.AVIATION...NEXT IN SERIES OF SHORTWAVES HAS REACHED EAST IDAHO.
RADAR SHOWS PRECIP TRYING TO FILL IN ACROSS THE REGION...MAINLY
FOCUSED OVER HIGHER TERRAIN AND ESPECIALLY FOCUSED TOWARD THE
SOUTHERN HIGHLANDS UNDER INFLUENCE OF NORTHWEST OROGRAPHIC FLOW.THIS
FLOW PROVING TO BE DIFFICULT FOR FCST CONDITIONS TODAY AND TONIGHT.
SOME INDICATION THAT KSUN WILL REMAIN ON SOUTH FRINGE OF PRECIP WITH
UPPER FLOW FAVORING A DOWNSLOPE PATTERN THERE. WILL MAINTAIN VFR
WITH VICINITY SHOWERS THROUGH THE DAY THERE. FOCUS SHOULD SHIFT EAST
OVERNIGHT WITH SOME CLEARING. OROGRAPHIC INFLUENCE GIVES BEST
CHANCE OF PRECIP TO KBYI/KPIH ESPECIALLY EARLY IN THE DAY. THESE
SITES LIKELY WARM ENOUGH FOR PRECIP TO REMAIN RAIN AND MVFR OR A
RAIN/SNOW MIX AT WORST. KIDA COLDEST AND COULD SEE WORST CEILINGS
THROUGH THE EVENT. OTHERWISE...WINDS REMAIN GREATEST CONCERN WITH
SUSTAINED SPEEDS IN THE 15-20KT RANGE WITH GUSTS HITTING 30KTS AT
TIMES. DMH


&&

.PIH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM MST MONDAY FOR IDZ019-023-025.

&&

$$


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