Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Pago Pago

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FXZS60 NSTU 230055

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pago Pago  AS
155 PM SST Wed Nov 22 2017

.Short term...
.TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...The expected surface trough near
Fiji will move toward the Samoan Islands through Friday...thus
bringing scattered to numerous showers and possible thunderstorms
over the next 24 to 48 hours. A surface to mid-level ridge will
materialize upstream creating dry subsidence air to hang just
north of the region. Depending on the location and strength of
these ridge axis...rainfall from the expected trough will either
miss or move across the forecast zones. Hence...will keep the
previous forecast shower coverage the same to scattered to
numerous showers wording.

.Long term...
.SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...A nearly stationary surface trough
will trigger scattered to numerous showers and possible thunderstorms
over the weekend. As the leading edge of this expected surface
trough dives well will take at least over 24
hours to weaken the midpoint of this trough before splitting into
two separate troughs. A trough closer to the forecast zones will
drift southwestward through Sunday night and Monday...meanwhile
gentle to moderate easterlies will return Monday. GFS model hints
at bringing increasing rainfall during Tuesday and Wednesday. For
now...will keep an eye on this situation before making new


Wave Watch III models are showing 7 to 9 feet southerly swells
moving towards the Samaon Islands Monday night. Otherwise,
combined sea heights still remain below advisory levels through
the weekend. Will continue to monitor this event at it unfolds.
The PacIOOs Aunu`u Wave buoy continues to report seas at 5 to 7
feet. significant swells through the weekend.





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