Area Forecast Discussion
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FXPQ60 PGUM 102054
AFDPQ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tiyan GU
651 AM ChST Mon Dec 11 2017

.Marianas Synopsis...East trade-winds and isolated showers prevail
across the Marianas this morning.

&&

.Discussion...
A few change made to the forecast. Did update winds with new model
data. Earlier forecast indicated that scattered showers and isolated
thunderstorms were possible for today. Latest model data show
decreasing deep layer moisture through the day. Water Vapor imagery
hints at decreasing deep layer moisture inching in from the east
validating the model projections. With drier air filtering in trimmed
the scattered showers from the forecast. Early morning satellite
imagery did show isolated cells of convection with a few of these
producing lightning. the thunderstorms were outside the local
area, but close enough to have to consider them. With
thunderstorms in the vicinity kept the mention of thunder in the
forecast. Models show that the dry air will continue to push over
the area decreasing the shower activity over the Marianas and
ending any chance of thunderstorms.

An area of trade-wind convergence and recovering deep layer moisture
will generate isolated showers and thunderstorms Wednesday night
through Friday night.

&&

.Marine...
Ipan, Tanapag and Ritidian buoys show sea heights around 5 to 7 feet.
Satellite altimetry data shows 6 foot seas over the local area. All
three buoys show just an east to northeast swell. The northwest swell
that Ritidian and Tanapag had been showing is longer present this
morning. Models did hint that the northwest swell would become
temporarily weak before increasing again. Model data does show both
swells over the area through the forecast. The east swell will be high
enough to generate a high rip current risk on east facing reefs
through at least Tuesday afternoon while the north swell will produce
a moderate rip current risk on north facing reefs.

&&

.Eastern Micronesia and Chuuk...
Strong trade-wind convergence continues this morning from near
Kosrae to just south of Majuro and eastward to the date line.
Showers and thunderstorms near Chuuk overnight have nearly
dissipated over the state with fair weather at Pohnpei now near
Weno. Models indicate trade-wind convergence, fresh winds and wet
weather will continue for Majuro, Kosrae, Pohnpei and Chuuk most
of this week. A relatively drier pattern could develop across the
region by Friday.

Large trade-wind swell and wind waves will maintain hazardous surf
on Kosrae and Majuro thru Tuesday. Marine conditions near Majuro
will remain hazardous for small craft several more days due to fresh
to strong trades and large combined seas.

&&

.Western Micronesia for Yap and Koror...
A weak disturbance, Invest Area 96W, is centered just northeast
of Koror near 8N136E. Fair weather and light northwest to north
winds were present over Koror much of the night. However, showers
and thunderstorms have been in the Yap vicinity much of the night
within the convergent area northeast of 96W. Unsettled weather
will persist the next few days near Yap and Koror with 96W in the
area. Both GFS and ECMWF are in fair agreement from initialization
to at least 5 days out, showing 96W moving slowly NNW or NW with
gradual development. Depending on the evolution of 96W, moderate
southwest monsoonal flow could develop over Koror and Yap around
mid to late week.

$$

.GUM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GU...High Rip Current Risk through Tuesday afternoon for GUZ001>004.

Marianas Waters...None.
&&

$$

Ziobro/M. Aydlett



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