Area Forecast Discussion
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FXPQ60 PGUM 230803
AFDPQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TIYAN GU
603 PM CHST SAT AUG 23 2014

.MARIANAS SYNOPSIS...
PGUA WSR-88D RADAR SHOWS ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WITHIN
THE MARINE ZONES. SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A SWATH OF CLOUDS OVER
THE MARIANAS CONTAINING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FROM 11N TO 19N.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
AN UPPER-LOW IS STATIONARY AND SLIGHTLY NORTHWEST THE MARIANAS.
MODELS INDICATE AND SATELLITE CONFIRMS THAT A SURFACE RIDGE IS TO
THE EAST OF THE MARIANAS. THE SURFACE RIDGE WOULD BRING PARTLY
CLOUDY SKIES...BUT THIS WILL BE TEMPERED BY THE UPPER LOW WHICH
WILL PROLONG THE PRESENCE OF ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS. A WEAK
SURFACE TROUGH NOW AT ABOUT 160E WILL LIKELY BE ENHANCED BY THE
UPPER LOW TO BRING MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ABOUT MONDAY.

COMBINED SEAS OF 1 TO 2 FEET WILL DOUBLE TO BETWEEN 2 AND 4 FEET
MONDAY. THEY ARE THEN EXPECTED TO SUBSIDE TO BETWEEN 1 AND 2 FEET
AGAIN BY LATE IN THE WEEK. ALL OF THESE ARE WAY BELOW ADVISORY
CRITERIA...SO NO ADVISORIES ARE FORESEEN THROUGH THE REST OF
AUGUST.

&&

.EASTERN MICRONESIA...
A SURFACE TROUGH COULD BE FOUND ACROSS EASTERN MICRONESIA FROM
1N165E TO AROUND 9N178E. IT WILL MOVE SLOWLY NORTHWESTWARD BEFORE
WASHING OUT MONDAY NIGHT. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL PREVAIL OVER THE
AREA THROUGH TUESDAY BEFORE ANOTHER TROUGH DEVELOPS ACROSS EASTERN
MICRONESIA WEDNESDAY. DESPITE THE PASSAGE OF SEVERAL TROUGHS OVER
EASTERN MICRONESIA...MOISTURE IS LACKING. EXPECT ONLY MOSTLY CLOUDY
SKIES FROM TIME TO TIME WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS THROUGH THE FORECAST.
THE WINDS ACROSS THE AREA ARE ALSO LIGHT AND WILL REMAIN SO THROUGH
THE FORECAST.

&&

.WESTERN MICRONESIA...
AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH HELPED TOUCH OFF THUNDERSTORMS OVER PALAU THIS
MORNING. THIS AREA HAS DIMINISHED AND ONLY MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES ARE
EXPECTED TONIGHT.

SURFACE CONVERGENCE WILL BRING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS TO YAP TONIGHT. THIS CONVERGENCE AREA WILL MOVE WEST
AND BRING CLOUDS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS TO PALAU SUNDAY AND
SUNDAY NIGHT.

MODELS SHOW A WEAK TROUGH PASSING OVER PALAU AND YAP TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY. MOISTURE WILL BE LACKING...SO EXPECT ONLY SHIFTING
WINDS.

A SURFACE TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS CHUUK LATE TONIGHT AND SATURDAY.
AS WITH OTHER TROUGHS TREKKING ACROSS MICRONESIA...IT WILL BE
ASSOCIATED WITH LIMITED MOISTURE. PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE FORECAST FOR CHUUK.

&&

.GUM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GU...NONE.
MARIANAS WATERS...NONE.
&&

$$

DEVITA/ZIOBRO





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