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000
FXPQ60 PGUM 210558
AFDPQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TIYAN GU
358 PM CHST TUE MAY 21 2013

.SYNOPSIS...
DEEP-LAYER RIDGING REMAINS OVERHEAD. LITTLE IN THE WAY OF
CLOUDINESS OR SHOWERS CAN BE SEEN OVER OR UPSTREAM OF THE
MARIANAS ALL THE WAY TO THE DATE LINE.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
FORECAST CLOSELY FOLLOWS PERSISTENCE. SEASONABLY DRY WEATHER
PATTERN APPEARS TO BE LOCKED IN PLACE. MODEL AND SATELLITE
SUGGEST THAT VERY WEAK TRADE-WIND DISTURBANCES WILL PROVIDE A BIT
MORE MOISTURE AND CLOUD COVER WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY. LOW-LEVEL
MOISTURE MAY BECOME A BIT MORE SHALLOW BEYOND FRIDAY...BUT
MOISTURE SHOULD REMAIN DEEP ENOUGH TO SUPPORT ISOLATED SHOWER
COVERAGE.

&&

.MARINE...
COMBINED SEAS INITIALIZED BETWEEN 3 AND 4 FEET. ADDED MINOR 2 FT
NORTH SWELL BASED ON SAIPAN AND RITIDIAN BUOY REPORTS AND WAVE
WATCH NEAR TERM TABULAR MODEL GUIDANCE. DESPITE THIS...OVERALL
SITUATION REMAINS UNCHANGED. STILL EXPECT SURF ON ALL EXPOSURES
TO REMAIN BELOW MODERATE RIP CURRENT RISK LEVELS FOR AT LEAST THE
NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.

&&

.EASTERN MICRONESIA...
SHOWERS HAVE BECOME WIDELY SCATTERED ACROSS THE REGION AS BANDED
CONVECTION ALONG THE ITCZ WEAKENED THIS MORNING. HEAVIER SHOWERS
WILL REMAIN FARTHER TO THE SOUTH OVER THE NEXT COUPLE DAYS. MORE
SHOWERS ARE PRESENT EAST OF MAJURO NEAR THE DATELINE...AND THEY
WILL SLOWLY HEAD WESTWARD. SHEARING MID AND UPPER-LEVEL
WESTERLIES WILL KEEP WESTWARD PROGRESSION OF SHOWERS LIMITED SO
HAVE ONLY KEPT ISOLATED SHOWERS IN THE FORECAST AT MAJURO. LATER
IN THE WEEK... MODELS SHOW THE ITCZ TRYING TO REFORM BUT CLOSER
TO KOSRAE AND POHNPEI...SO WILL MAINTAIN MOSTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS
THERE.

&&

.WESTERN MICRONESIA...
SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS SHOWERS NEAR KOROR IN THE VICINITY OF A
SLOW MOVING SURFACE TROUGH. MORE SHOWERS ARE SEEN SOUTH OF CHUUK
NEAR ANOTHER SURFACE TROUGH. CONVECTION WILL FILL IN SOME TO THE
SOUTHEAST OF CHUUK OVERNIGHT...BUT MODELS SHOW THE MAJORITY OF
THE ACTIVITY HOLDING TO THE SOUTH OF THE AREA IN THE COMING DAYS
SO ONLY EXPECT MOSTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS OVER CHUUK FOR NOW.
WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN SOMEWHAT UNSTABLE OVERNIGHT OVER
KOROR BUT SHOULD SETTLE DOWN BY WEDNESDAY ONCE THE TROUGH EXITS
THE AREA. THE TROUGH SOUTH OF CHUUK WILL HEAD WESTWARD BUT MODELS
SHOW IT STALLING OUT SOUTHEAST OF YAP OVER THE WEEKEND. DECIDED
TO INCREASE YAP CLOUD COVERAGE TO MOSTLY CLOUDY FOR THE LONG TERM
BASED ON THE PROXIMITY OF THE TROUGH...BUT KOROR WILL LIKELY SEE
DRIER CONDITIONS PERSIST THROUGH THE WEEKEND. HAVE INCLUDED A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS WEDNESDAY FOR KOROR TO FACTOR IN
THE POSSIBILITY OF ISLAND CONVECTION DUE TO A WEAKER LOW-LEVEL
WIND PROFILE.

&&

.GUM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GU...NONE.
MARIANAS WATERS...NONE.
&&

$$

MCELROY/W. AYDLETT