Area Forecast Discussion
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FXPQ60 PGUM 200620

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tiyan GU
420 PM ChST Mon Feb 20 2017

.Marianas Synopsis...
Partly cloudy skies and moderate to fresh trades are found across
the Marianas. Radar shows only ba few sprinkles, along with quite
a bit of chaff from military exercises. The buoys are reporting seas
near 7 feet.


A dry-season pattern continues with brisk trades, only a shallow
layer of moisture, and almost no showers. A brief increase in
moisture may give rise to isolated showers overnight, but then
Tuesday and Tuesday night will have only a slight chance of any
showers as moisture bottoms out. The rest of the week should see
isolated showers at times as moisture gradually deepens.


Latest guidance shows north swell vacillating between 2 and 3 feet
dueing the week, leading to minor variations in surf along north
facing shores. Otherwise not much change, with a moderate rip risk
the next few days.


.Eastern Micronesia...
Satellite shows quiet conditions across the region with only a few
light showers in the area. Fair weather is expected for much of the
week with just a few trade-wind troughs bringing higher amounts of
clouds at times. The first trough is now crossing the Date Line and
will bring more clouds and a slight increase in showers around
midweek to Majuro and Kosrae, and late week to Pohnpei.

Trade-wind swell and wind waves have decreased enough to allow surf
to fall below hazardous levels at Pohnpei, but surf will remain
hazardous at Kosrae into Tuesday afternoon.


.Western Micronesia...
A broad disturbance is seen south of Chuuk this afternoon. Showers
and thunderstorms are found from south of Chuuk to east of Yap. As
the disturbance drifts west, showers and thunderstorms will increase
at both Yap and Koror Tuesday. Both locations should see improved
weather around Thursday, but a convergent trade-wind pattern will
bring showers back to the area over the weekend.

Dry weather seen across eastern Micronesia will spread into Chuuk
State tonight and Tuesday as the disturbance to the south heads west.
Quiet weather and moderate trades will persist through midweek before
showers increase from an approaching surface trough from the east.

Trade-wind swell and wind waves have decreased enough to allow surf
to fall below hazardous levels at Chuuk.


Marianas Waters...None.


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