Area Forecast Discussion
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FXPQ60 PGUM 200736
AFDPQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TIYAN GU
358 PM CHST MON OCT 20 2014

.MARIANAS SYNOPSIS...
PGUA WSR-88D SHOWS ALMOST NO SHOWERS IN THE MARIANAS WATERS. IT ALSO
SHOWS A LINE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE SOUTH OF GUAM
WATERS. THE VAD WIND PROFILE REVEALS NORTHEAST WINDS OF 10 TO 15
KNOTS THROUGH THE LOWEST 6 THOUSAND FEET OF THE AIR.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
WEAK CHAOTIC FLOW PATTERN REMAINS IN PLACE WITH MANY SMALL TROUGHS
AND RIDGES. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY BECOME LIGHTER THROUGH
THE FORECAST PERIOD. MAIN EVENT WILL BE SWELL FROM A STORM NORTH OF
WAKE WHICH HAS MOVED VERY LITTLE OVER THE PAST 4 DAYS. THIS MEANS
THE WINDS HAVE GREAT PERSISTENCE AND A FAIRLY LONG FETCH OF 1200
NAUTICAL MILES. THE LIMITING FACTOR WILL BE THE WIND SPEED OF 30
KNOTS. THIS WILL MAINTAIN ELEVATED SURF FOR THE REST OF THE WEEK
ONCE IT ARRIVES AROUND WEDNESDAY. INHERITED GRIDS HANDLED THIS WELL
SO NO CHANGES WERE NEEDED.

&&

.EASTERN MICRONESIA...
A CIRCULATION COULD BE FOUND NORTHEAST OF KOSRAE THIS AFTERNOON.
MODELS KEEP THE CIRCULATION WEAK AND AGREE ON PUSHING THIS FEATURE
SOUTH AND EVENTUALLY WASH IT OUT BY WEDNESDAY. LIGHT AND VARIABLE
WINDS TO LIGHT WESTERLIES CAN BE EXPECTED ACROSS POHNPEI AND KOSRAE
THROUGH MID WEEK. EAST TRADE-WINDS WILL RETURN TO THESE TWO AREAS BY
THURSDAY.

A SURFACE TROUGH...NOW EAST OF THE DATELINE...WILL PUSH WEST. THE
TROUGH WILL REMAIN WEAK BUT WILL BRING MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES TO
POHNPEI AND KOSRAE THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK. THIS TROUGH WILL
BRING AN INCREASED CHANCE OF SHOWERS TO MAJURO WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY. CONVERGENCE IN THE WAKE OF THE TROUGH WILL KEEP SKIES
MOSTLY CLOUDY AT MAJURO FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.
&&

.WESTERN MICRONESIA...
A SURFACE TROUGH STRETCHED ACROSS WESTERN MICRONESIA NORTH OF 10N
THIS AFTERNOON. THIS TROUGH WILL REMAIN IN THE SAME GENERAL LOCATION
THROUGH AT LEAST WEDNESDAY. THIS AFTERNOON NORTH WINDS PREVAILED AT
PALAU AND YAP WITH WEST WINDS AT CHUUK. LITTLE WILL CHANGE TROUGH
WEDNESDAY. THE TROUGH WILL DECAY AND EAST TRADE-WINDS WILL RETURN TO
WESTERN MICRONESIA THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK. MODELS KEEP THINGS
TRANQUIL AND ONLY ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE
FORECAST.

&&

.GUM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GU...NONE.
MARIANAS WATERS...NONE.
&&

$$

STANKO/ZIOBRO








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