Area Forecast Discussion
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000
FXPQ60 PGUM 261950
AFDPQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TIYAN GU
550 AM CHST THU NOV 27 2014

.MARIANAS SYNOPSIS...
VERY DRY AIR REMAINS IN PLACE OVER THE FORECAST ZONES. A TRADE-
WIND DISTURBANCE IS BEGINNING TO PASS SOUTH OF GUAM. LOW-LEVEL
CONVERGENCE ON THE EAST SIDE OF THE SYSTEM IS SETTING UP A BAND
OF SHALLOW CLOUDINESS AND SHOWERS EASTWARD FROM THE GUAM MARINE
ZONES TO NEAR 160E. A LOOSELY ORGANIZED TROPICAL DISTURBANCE IS
TRYING TO CONSOLIDATE BETWEEN POHNPEI AND THE MARSHALL ISLANDS.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
FORECAST CONTINUES TO GENERALLY FOLLOW THE ONGOING NARRATIVE WITH
A FEW ADJUSTMENTS. KEPT VERY DRY AIR MASS IN PLACE OVER TINIAN
AND SAIPAN TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...BUT BRING PARTLY CLOUDY
SKIES AND ISOLATED SHOWERS BACK TO GUAM AND ROTA DURING THIS TIME
FRAME. DID BROAD BRUSH THE FORECAST TEXT FOR THIS PORTION OF THE
FORECAST TO AVOID MAKING TOO FINE OF A DISTINCTION IN THE
WORDING. KEPT CLOUD COVER PARTLY CLOUDY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT AS
DRY TRADES REMAIN IN PLACE. ALLOWED MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES TO REMAIN
IN PLACE TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY AS TROPICAL DISTURBANCE CURRENTLY
OVER EASTERN MICRONESIA SHOULD BE IN THE NEIGHBORHOOD BY THEN.

&&

.MARINE...
VAD WINDS SHOW GRADIENT WINDS PICKING UP TO NEAR 25 KNOTS AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS TO THE NORTH OF THE MARIANAS. BUOYS ONLY SHOW
COMBINED SEAS TOPPING OUT AROUND 7 FEET...BUT WENT AHEAD WITH A
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY AS WINDS SHOULD FRESHEN TO ADVISORY LEVELS
DURING THE NEXT FEW HOURS...FOLLOWED BY COMBINED SEAS TONIGHT.
ADVISORY SHOULD WIND DOWN ON SATURDAY AS LOW PRESSURE NEAR JAPAN
WEAKENS THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE. DID BACK PRIMARY TRADE-WIND SWELL
TO COME FROM 060 DEGREES. OTHERWISE...INHERITED SWELL GRIDS WERE
IN GOOD SHAPE.

&&

.EASTERN MICRONESIA...
ONLY MADE SHORT-TERM TWEAKS TO THE FORECAST THIS MORNING. VERY
ACTIVE PATTERN HAS ENGULFED ALL OF EASTERN MICRONESIA FROM CHUUK
STATE TO THE DATE LINE. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS ARE SEEN OVER CHUUK...POHNPEI AND KOSRAE THIS
MORNING. MAJURO IS IN A LULL AT THE MOMENT WHILE THE NEXT ROUND
OF WEATHER LOOMING TO THE SOUTHEAST FILLS IN AS IT HEADS WEST-
NORTHWEST. SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL REACH MAJURO BY THIS EVENING.
MODELS STILL SPIN UP A TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SOUTH OF POHNPEI LATE
FRIDAY. THIS WILL MAINTAIN ACTIVE WEATHER ON POHNPEI AND CHUUK
FOR THE WEEKEND. WEAK RIDGING BEHIND THIS DISTURBANCE WILL ALLOW
BETTER WEATHER BRIEFLY FOR MAJURO AND KOSRAE. MODELS ADVERTISE
MORE WET WEATHER FOR THE MARSHALLS EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH ANOTHER
TRADE-WIND CONVERGENCE ZONE SETTING UP BETWEEN 5N AND 10N.

KALO BUOY STILL SHOWS SEAS OF AROUND 8 FEET THIS MORNING.
SATELLITE-DERIVED SEA HEIGHTS INDICATE COMBINED SEAS AS HIGH AS 9
TO 11 FEET JUST TO THE EAST OF MAJURO NEAR THE DATE LINE. HIGH
SURF ADVISORIES REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR EAST FACING REEFS OF MAJURO
AND KOSRAE. SURF WILL REMAIN HAZARDOUS THROUGH EARLY FRIDAY BUT
SHOULD FALL BELOW ADVISORY LEVELS FRIDAY AFTERNOON OR EVENING FOR
BOTH LOCATIONS.

&&

.WESTERN MICRONESIA...
CHUUK DISCUSSION IS INCLUDED IN THE EASTERN DISCUSSION ABOVE DUE
TO SIMILAR SYNOPTIC REASONING.

GENERALLY FAIR WEATHER IS IN PLACE OVER YAP AND KOROR THIS
MORNING. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE SEEN JUST EAST OF
YAP...NORTH OF A BROAD CIRCULATION CENTERED SOUTHEAST OF YAP NEAR
3N146E. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED ON YAP TONIGHT...AND ON
KOROR BY FRIDAY MORNING. ACTIVE PATTERN SEEN OVER EASTERN
MICRONESIA WILL SHIFT WEST AND BRING UNSETTLED CONDITIONS TO BOTH
LOCATIONS THROUGH THE WEEKEND. MODELS SPIN UP A COUPLE OF
CIRCULATIONS FARTHER OUT IN TIME THAT COULD EFFECT WEATHER
CONDITIONS FOR BOTH LOCALES AFTER SUNDAY. WILL HAVE TO SEE HOW
THIS EVOLVES.

DEPENDING ON THE EVOLUTION AND TRACK OF THE DISTURBANCES THAT ARE
EXPECTED TO PASS THROUGH YAP STATE AND KOROR...SEAS MAY NEED TO
BE ADJUSTED AND CONSIDERATION GIVEN TO A POSSIBLE HAZARDOUS SURF
SCENARIO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.GUM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GU...NONE.
MARIANAS WATERS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM CHST SATURDAY
                  FOR PMZ151>154.

&&

$$

MCELROY/M. AYDLETT





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