Area Forecast Discussion
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000
FXPQ60 PGUM 280646
AFDPQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TIYAN GU
446 PM CHST FRI AUG 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LIGHT WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS AND ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE PRESENT
ACROSS THE MARIANAS. THIS PATTERN IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE
NEXT FEW DAYS.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
LITTLE CHANGE IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE MARIANAS FOR THE NEXT FEW
DAYS. PARTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS WITH LIGHT WINDS WILL BE THE RULE.
THESE CONDITIONS ARE CONDUCIVE TO ISLAND CONVECTION...HOWEVER
WATER VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A LARGE AREA OF DRY AIR AND
SUBSIDENCE OVER THE REGION. SHOWERS REMAIN A POSSIBILITY BUT THE
SUBSIDENCE OVER THE REGION WILL HELP CAP ANY ISLAND THUNDER.

&&

.MARINE...
RITIDIAN AND TANAPAG BUOYS CONTINUE TO SHOW A LONG PERIOD NORTH
SWELL OF 6 TO 8 FEET IN THE MARIANAS WATERS. THIS SWELL IS
SUFFICIENT TO PRODUCE SURF OF 8 TO 10 FEET. THEREFORE...EXTENDED
THE HIGH SURF ADVISORY THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING.

&&

.EASTERN MICRONESIA...
CONVERGING SOUTHWEST WINDS CONTINUE ACROSS MUCH OF MICRONESIA
FROM CHUUK STATE EASTWARD TO KOSRAE STATE...AND DIVERGENT FLOW
ALOFT IS HELPING TO TRIGGER SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS IN
SEVERAL PATCHY AREAS OVER CHUUK AND POHNPEI STATES. RELATIVELY DRY
WEATHER PERSISTS FOR MAJURO. MOST MODELS INDICATE THE FOCUS OF
CONVERGENCE WILL MOVE WESTWARD IN THE COMING DAYS WHILE HIGH
PRESSURE AND DRIER WEATHER CENTERED JUST NORTH OF MAJURO HELP MORE
PLEASANT WEATHER SPREAD TOWARD KOSRAE AND POHNPEI ON SUNDAY...AND
TOWARD CHUUK STATE BY MONDAY OR TUESDAY.

THE WAVE WATCH MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATES SEVERAL DIFFERENT SWELLS
ARE CAUSING MIXED SEAS ACROSS MICRONESIA. SWELL DIRECTIONS INCLUDE
NORTH...WEST AND SOUTHEAST. HAZARDOUS SURF CONDITIONS ARE NOT
EXPECTED BUT SITUATION WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED.

&&

.WESTERN MICRONESIA...
REASONING FOR CHUUK FORECAST IS INCLUDED IN THE EASTERN
MICRONESIA SECTION DUE TO A SIMILAR WEATHER PATTERN.

A MODERATE SOUTHWEST WIND FLOW HAS DEVELOPED ACROSS FAR WESTERN
MICRONESIA. A MONSOON TROUGH REMAINS NORTH OF YAP AND DRY WEATHER
WILL PERSIST AT BOTH KOROR AND YAP FOR THE NEXT DAY OR TWO. MODEL
GUIDANCE INDICATES THE PATTERN OF MORE CONVERGENT LOW-LEVEL WIND
FLOW FROM EASTERN MICRONESIA WILL MOVE WESTWARD WITH TIME AND
CAUSE SLIGHTLY WETTER WEATHER OVER FAR WESTERN MICRONESIA BY NEXT
WEEK.

&&

.GUM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GU...HIGH SURF ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CHST SATURDAY FOR GUZ001>004.

MARIANAS WATERS...NONE.
&&

$$

KLEESCHULTE/SIMPSON



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