Area Forecast Discussion
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000
FXPQ60 PGUM 310756
AFDPQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TIYAN GU
556 PM CHST FRI JUL 31 2015

.SYNOPSIS...LIGHT NORTH WINDS AND ISOLATED SHOWERS PREVAIL
ACROSS THE MARIANAS THIS AFTERNOON. WINDS AND SHOWERS WILL
INCREASE BY SUNDAY AS TROPICAL STORM SOUDELOR APPROACHES THE
MARIANA ISLANDS

&&

.DISCUSSION...
LEFT FORECAST AS IS FOR NOW. EXPECT LIGHT NORTHEAST WINDS TONIGHT
BECOMING NORTH ON SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT. TROPICAL STORM
SOUDELOR IS EXPECTED TO PASS TO THE NORTH OF SAIPAN SUNDAY NIGHT
OR EARLY MONDAY MORNING. WINDS ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA WILL BECOME
MORE WESTERLY BY SUNDAY NIGHT AS SOUDELOR PASSES TO THE NORTH.
MONSOON SHOWERS SOUTH OF SOUDELOR WILL INCREASE ACROSS THE
MARIANAS WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS SUNDAY EXPECTED OVER GUAM AND
ROTA WITH NUMEROUS SHOWERS OVER TINIAN AND SAIPAN. AS SOUDELOR
MOVES AWAY FROM THE MARIANAS MONDAY DEEP LAYER MONSOON MOISTURE
WILL REMAIN. THIS WILL KEEP SHOWERS SCATTERED ACROSS THE LOCAL
AREA THROUGH AT LEAST WEDNESDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
BUOY DATA SHOWS SEAS ARE AROUND 2 TO 3 FEET. EXPECT SEAS AND
SWELL TO INCREASE BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON AS SOUDELOR APPROACHES THE
MARIANAS. SEAS AND SURF WILL BE HIGHER ACROSS TINIAN AND SAIPAN
ESPECIALLY SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY. SOUDELOR IS PREDICTED TO BE A
STRONG TYPHOON AFTER IT PASSES THROUGH THE MARIANAS. THE TYPHOON
WILL PUSH SWELLS TOWARDS THE MARIANAS AND WILL PRODUCE HIGHER SURF
ALONG NORTH AND WEST FACING REEFS NEXT WEEK. AT THIS TIME SURF IS
PREDICTED TO BECOME HAZARDOUS ONLY OVER TINIAN AND SAIPAN. IF
SOUDELOR EITHER BECOMES STRONG...MOVES CLOSER OR LINGERS LONGER
THAN EXPECTED THAN SEA AND SURF COULD BE DIFFERENT.

&&

.TROPICAL SYSTEMS...
TROPICAL STORM SOUDELOR WAS LOCATED ABOUT 880 MILES TO THE EAST OF
GUAM THIS AFTERNOON. IT IS MOVING IN THE DIRECTION OF THE
MARIANAS AND IS PREDICTED TO BE NEAR PAGAN AND ALAMAGAN SUNDAY
NIGHT OR MONDAY MORNING. SOUDELOR IS PREDICTED TO BECOME A TYPHOON
SOMETIME ON SATURDAY AFTERNOON. IT IS ALSO EXPECTED TO BE A
TYPHOON AS IT PASSES THROUGH THE MARIANAS. IF IT DOES TRACK ACROSS
THE NORTHERN CNMI THE STRONGEST WINDS WILL REMAIN NORTH OF SAIPAN.
TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS MAY OCCUR ACROSS TINIAN AND SAIPAN AND
ASSOCIATED COASTAL WATERS SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY. AS WITH ANY
TROPICAL SYSTEM THE TRACK AND INTENSITY MAY CHANGE BRINGING STRONG
WINDS FURTHER SOUTH.

&&

.EASTERN MICRONESIA...
TROPICAL STORM SOUDELOR IS 450 MILES NORTH-NORTHWEST OF POHNPEI AND
560 MILES NORTHEAST OF CHUUK...MOVING WESTWARD. ASCAT WIND ANALYSIS
SHOWS ANOTHER CIRCULATION SOUTHEAST OF MAJURO AT ABOUT 3N173E WITH
MODERATE TO FRESH WEST WINDS FROM CHUUK STATE TOWARD THE CIRCULATION
SOUTHEAST OF MAJURO. MOST MODELS INDICATE THE MOIST MONSOON FLOW
WILL PERSIST ACROSS EASTERN MICRONESIA FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS WITH
SHOWERY WEATHER AT CHUUK...POHNPEI AND KOSRAE. THE CIRCULATION NEAR
MAJURO WILL NEED TO BE WATCHED FOR FURTHER DEVELOPMENTS. IMPROVING
WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT MAJURO BY LATE SATURDAY WITH A SLIGHTLY DRIER
PATTERN DEVELOPING BY THEN.

WESTERLY WINDS WILL CAUSE SIGNIFICANT SWELL AND WIND WAVES ALONG THE
WEST COASTS OF MICRONESIA. THE WW3 MODEL AND ALTIMETRY DATA INDICATE
SHORT-PERIOD WAVES WILL BE UP TO 5 OR 6 FEET ACROSS THE AREA IN THE
COMING DAYS. IF THE WEST SWELL BUILDS UP TO AROUND 7 FEET...THEN
HIGH SURF ADVISORIES MAY BE NEEDED.


&&

.WESTERN MICRONESIA...
CHUUK DISCUSSION IS INCLUDED ABOVE WITH EASTERN MICRONESIA DUE TO
A SIMILAR SYNOPTIC PATTERN.

A MONSOON TROUGH STRETCHES EASTWARD FROM 10N130E ACROSS YAP STATE TO
9N143E THEN CURVES NORTHEASTWARD INTO TROPICAL STORM SOUDELOR AT
ABOUT 14N157E. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS PERSIST
ACROSS THE REPUBLIC OF PALAU BETWEEN 4N AND 8N FROM 130E TO 141E
WHILE SOME SHOWERS ARE EDGING TOWARD YAP. THIS GENERAL PATTERN IS
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE UNTIL TS SOUDELOR MOVES TO NEAR THE MARIANA
ISLANDS BY LATE SUNDAY...AND BY THEN THE WEST MONSOON WINDS AND
SHOWERS ARE LIKELY TO INCREASE FOR BOTH YAP AND KOROR.

SEAS WILL RESPOND TO THE WESTERLY WINDS WITH COMBINED SEAS BUILDING
ACROSS PALAU AND YAP THIS WEEKEND. THE WEST SURF IN PARTICULAR COULD
BECOME HAZARDOUS BY TUESDAY OR WEDNESDAY.

&&

.GUM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GU...NONE.
MARIANAS WATERS...NONE.
&&

$$

ZIOBRO/SIMPSON



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