Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Raleigh/Durham, NC

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000
FXUS62 KRAH 190904
AFDRAH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Raleigh NC
404 AM EST Mon Feb 19 2018

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure is expected to drift offshore this morning as a weak
warm front begins to lift north through the area. A strong high
pressure will build back in on Tuesday, bringing the potential for
record warmth by mid week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 400 AM Monday...

Light rain persisting as a warm front starts to work northward into
the area from central SC. This is providing substantial isentropic
lift, particularly on the 290K surface. The area of light rain
associated with this is progged to move northward and out of the
area by about 15z with a few lingering showers into the afternoon.
As surface high pressure moves northeastward off of the Cape Cod
coast, a weak damming wedge will set up keeping temperatures in the
Triad a bit cooler than the rest of the area today with highs in the
mid 50s vs mid 60s across the south.

As the high drifts further offshore, the wedge will break down and a
southerly return flow pattern will take over. A very moist surface
level will promote a period of dense fog late Monday night into
early Tuesday morning. Lows in the upper 40s across the north to
upper 50s in the southeast.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT/...
As of 400 AM Monday...

Continued return flow pattern over central NC with the Bermuda high
in place with an upper level ridge present off of the Carolina
Coast. After fog burns off expect partly to mostly cloudy skies for
much of the morning before some clearing by afternoon. Continued
warm air advection will result in well above normal temperatures
Tuesday afternoon with highs in the low 70s across the Triad to
upper 70s to very close to 80 degrees in the southeast. No
precipitation is expected, however a slight chance of a shower in
the NW Piedmont is possible. Lows will moderate into the upper 50s
to low 60s Tuesday night.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
As of 4 AM Monday...

A strong sub-tropical mid/upper level ridge is expected to extend
into our region midweek, yielding near to record warmth across the
area. High temps Wednesday are expected to range from the lower to
mid 70s NW to the lower 80s SE. Warm overnight lows are expected for
Thursday morning ahead of an approaching backdoor cold front, as the
mid/upper level ridge shifts eastward, while sinking southward. Lows
Thursday morning are expected to be near 60/lower 60s.

The aforementioned backdoor front is expected to slowly shift
southward into the area late Thursday afternoon, along with the
potential for some showers across northern portions of the area.
Expect highs on Thursday will range from near 70 far north to the
lower 80s across the south.

The cold front is now expected to sink southward across most if not
all of the area Thursday night, with the front stalling near/just to
the south of the NC/SC border. This will usher in a cooler feed of
low level air from the north for Friday, with a big question of how
long it will take for the for the stalled front to lift back
northward as a warm front. Will trend the temps downward for Friday,
especially across northern portions of the area and increase pops
some as it appears we will at least see a brief CAD air mass take
hold across some or all of the area on Friday. In fact, we may have
a hard time climbing above the lower to mid 50s across the far
north. However, given the uncertainty in the push of the cold air
behind the front on Thursday night and questions about precip
chances, will just lower highs to around 60 north to the lower to
mid 70s far south for Friday.

The front will lift north of the area by Saturday, yielding a warm
weekend. The next cold front is expected to approach the area from
the west on Saturday night and move into the area on Sunday
afternoon/evening with increasing chances of showers. Expect highs
in the 70s to near 80 for the weekend, with lows in the 50s and 60s.


&&

.AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
As of 1230 AM Monday...

24 Hour TAF Period: Strengthening southerly warm moist air advection
will result in aviation conditions deteriorating rapidly between 06
to 12z. Ceilings will lower to IFR to LIFR between 06z to 14z, with
light rain reducing visibilities to IFR to MVFR. The light rain is
expected to taper to drizzle by late morning/early afternoon, before
ending by mid afternoon. Once precip ends, ceilings are expected to
lift to IFR and MVFR with visibilities improving to MVFR to VFR.
However, CIGS/VSBYS are expected to quickly lower back into the
IFR to LIFR range Monday night, with dense fog likely.

Outlook: VFR conditions return on Tuesday. With the exception of
some early morning stratus/fog in the unseasonably warm and humid
air mass for February, expect generally VFR conditions through late
week.

&&

.CLIMATE...

RDU Records:

Date     |  High  Year  |  High Min  Year
------------------------------------------
02/20       75    1939        62     1939
02/21       76    2011        55     1939
02/22       75    1897        60     1897
02/23       79    1980        57     1962
02/24       81    1982        58     1985

GSO Records:

Date     |  High  Year  |  High Min  Year
------------------------------------------
02/20       74    1922        56     1939
02/21       74    2011        50     1954
02/22       74    1925        57     1980
02/23       74    2017        52     1922
02/24       79    1982        55     1985

FAY Records:

Date     |  High  Year  |  High Min  Year
-------------------------------------------
02/20       82    2014        60     1939
02/21       80    1991        61     1953
02/22       77    2003        56     1989
02/23       80    1922        55     1922
02/24       83    1930        60     1975
&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...JJM
NEAR TERM...Ellis
SHORT TERM...Ellis
LONG TERM...BSD
AVIATION...CBL/Badgett
CLIMATE...Badgett



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