Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Raleigh/Durham, NC

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FXUS62 KRAH 240710

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Raleigh NC
310 AM EDT Mon Jul 24 2017

A Piedmont trough will extend from Virginia into South Carolina
through Tuesday. A cold front will drop south into North Carolina on
Tuesday and then stall across the region on Wednesday and Thursday.


As of 250 AM Monday...

Both the surface and upper level troughs will remain over the region
through tonight. Southerly flow will continue to advect warm moist
air into the region, however models suggest overcast skies lingering
through much of the afternoon, mainly across the southeast half of
Central NC. The cloud cover will impede temperature rises, capping
highs off in the low to mid 90s. Keep in mind should the clouds
break in the southeast earlier, temperatures and heat indices will
be higher. Based on the current forecast, expect max heat indices to
be in the mid 90s in the Triad, near 100 degrees in the Triangle,
and possibly touching 105 degrees for an hour at Fayetteville. The
result will be a more comfortable feeling day than the previous
ones, though it will still be hot. Lows will be similar to previous
nights, bottoming out in the low to mid 70s.

Showers and thunderstorms will again be possible, mainly across the
south and southeast during the afternoon and evening, tapering off
again after sunset. Some models suggest that convection will be
suppressed, largely due to the clouds and resultant reduction in
daytime heating. With upper level disturbances moving through the
base of the trough and the continued moist airmass, will indicate
the chance for convection during the aft/eve.


As of 300 AM Monday...

The upper level low will pull away to the northeast leading to a
deamplification of the trough over the Atlantic Coast on Tuesday. At
the surface, a cold front will approach from the north, though
models suggest it will get hung up along or just south of the NC/VA
border through Tuesday night. This boundary will push the surface
trough farther to the southeast. Expect a decrease in dewpoint
temperatures during this time as the surface flow in proximity to
the boundary becomes more northerly. Southerly flow may still persist
across the south however, with the best chances for convection in
the vicinity of the lingering surface trough where theta-e advection
is greatest. Highs on Tuesday will generally be in the low 90s, with
overnight lows in the low to mid 70s once again.


As of 310 AM Monday...

Surface high pressure over the northeastern CONUS will extend into
the region on Wednesday as a frontal zone lingers south of the CWA.
This will be our first break from 90 degree temperatures as highs
are expected to be in the mid to upper 80s which is actually below
normal for this time of year by a few degrees. This high will remain
over the area on Thursday as well although temperatures will begin
to creep back towards the 90 degree mark. Although diurnal showers
and a possible thunderstorm cannot be ruled out, these days should
be fairly dry. Lows in the lower 70s.

By Friday, a developing low pressure system, spurred on by a
shortwave upper trough, will cross the mid-Atlantic states and move
off the coast. As it does so, an east-west oriented front will sag
southward towards central NC. Timing in both the GFS and ECMWF
solutions is fairly similar and it looks like enhanced precipitation
will begin at some point Friday afternoon/evening and continue
through Saturday as a secondary low develops along the front. Some
uncertainty remains in just how far south the frontal zone will
progress which could leave our forecast area dry for Sunday but it
is entirely possible that the southern half of the area still
experiences precipitation associated with this boundary. After a
brief stint back in the 90s on Friday, temperatures will return to
the mid to upper 80s for the remainder of the forecast period.


As of 145 AM Monday...

24-Hour TAF period: VFR conditions expected throughout much of the
period, however there is a chance for sub-vfr cigs and visbys should
storms move over a terminal. With the rain that has fallen in the
past 12 hours or so, some fog/low stratus could develop tonight, but
should clear up after sunrise. Clouds will likely stick around for
much of the daytime hours, especially the farther southeast (KFAY)
you go, however cigs should remain above VFR.

Looking ahead: Mainly VFR conditions expected through the work week
with scattered mainly afternoon and evening showers and
thunderstorms. This could result in some restrictions in morning
fog/stratus or storms with the greatest risk late in the work week.





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