Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Reno, NV

Home | Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | Print | Product List | Glossary On
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50
000
FXUS65 KREV 202101
AFDREV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RENO NV
201 PM PDT MON OCT 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION THIS EVENING PRODUCING
GUSTY WINDS WITH THE BEST CHANCE OF SHOWERS NORTH OF INTERSTATE
80. AFTER A COOL DAY TUESDAY, TEMPERATURES WILL WARM THE REST OF
THE WEEK. A SECOND LOW WILL REACH THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST BY
SATURDAY, WITH GUSTY WINDS AND A CHANCE OF RAIN AND MOUNTAIN
SNOW.

&&

.SHORT TERM...

QUICK MOVING UPPER LOW WILL CROSS NORTHERN CALIFORNIA AND NORTHWEST
NEVADA THIS EVENING, THEN PUSH INTO SOUTHERN IDAHO BY TUESDAY
MORNING. MAIN IMPACTS FROM THE LOW THIS EVENING ARE WINDY
CONDITIONS ALONG WITH SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS NORTH OF
A LINE FROM SOUTH LAKE TAHOE TO LOVELOCK.

FOR THE WINDS...PEAK GUSTS IN THE VALLEY OF 35-45 MPH WILL
CONTINUE WITH GUSTS AS HIGH AS 60 MPH IN WIND PRONE LOCATIONS
ALONG HIGHWAY 395. STRONGEST WINDS ARE ON TRACK FROM 6 TO 10 PM
THIS EVENING ROUGHLY NORTH OF HIGHWAY 50, HOWEVER DO THINK 40-50
MPH GUSTS WILL OCCUR IN DOUGLAS AND NORTHERN MONO COUNTY. WINDS
WILL BE SLOW TO SUBSIDE TONIGHT. ONCE THE TROUGH AXIS PASSES THE
DIRECTION WILL SHIFT TO THE WEST WITH 25-30 MPH GUSTS HANGING
AROUND THROUGH 3 AM.

NOT MUCH CHANGE IN THE RAINFALL FORECAST THIS EVENING, WITH
HIGHEST TOTALS UP TO 0.50 INCH OVER PLUMAS AND WESTERN LASSEN
COUNTY. AMOUNTS LOOK A BIT HIGHER THAN YESTERDAY ALONG THE WEST
SHORE OF TAHOE WHERE UP TO 0.20 INCH IS POSSIBLE. ACROSS WESTERN
NEVADA AMOUNTS SHOULD BE LESS THAN 0.10 INCH, THOUGH AMOUNTS UP
TO 0.25 INCH MAY OCCUR ALONG THE TRACK OF THE LOW NORTH OF
INTERSTATE 80. SNOW LEVELS WILL FALL TO NEAR 7000 FEET, THOUGH
STRONGER SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS MAY PUSH SNOW LEVELS
DOWN TO 6000-6500 FEET.

BEHIND THE LOW AFTERNOON HIGHS WILL REMAIN COOL FOR TUESDAY WITH
THE NEVADA VALLEYS NEAR 60 DEGREES WITH 50S FOR THE SIERRA.
TEMPERATURES WILL WARM FOR WEDNESDAY AS THE RIDGE REBUILDS OVER
THE SOUTHWEST AHEAD OF THE NEXT WAVE OF PACIFIC ENERGY. BRONG

.LONG TERM...THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY...

MOST OF THE EXTENDED FORECAST REMAINS INTACT WITH A WARMING TREND
THROUGH FRIDAY, THEN COOLER NEXT WEEKEND WITH A CHANCE OF
PRECIPITATION MAINLY NEAR THE SIERRA AND NORTH OF INTERSTATE 80.
THE MAIN UNCERTAINTY IS WHEN THE TROUGH PASSES THROUGH THE REGION,
AS MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE INDICATES THIS OCCURRING ANYTIME BETWEEN
FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY EVENING.

FOR THURSDAY, BAND OF PACIFIC MOISTURE IS PROJECTED TO SPREAD
ACROSS NORTHEAST CA-NORTHWEST NV, THEN RETREAT FARTHER NORTH AS
TROUGH DIGS OFF THE PACIFIC COAST NEAR LONGITUDE 130W. WE
MAINTAINED SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN NORTH OF SUSANVILLE AND GERLACH
FOR THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT.

ON FRIDAY, MOST AREAS SHOULD REMAIN DRY WITH INCREASING SOUTH FLOW
BRINGING GUSTY WINDS AND WARMER TEMPERATURES. ALONG THE HIGHWAY 95
CORRIDOR, HIGHS ARE LIKELY TO REACH 80 DEGREES AND COULD EVEN PUSH
INTO THE MID 80S IF SUFFICIENT CLEARING AND MIXING OCCURS DURING THE
AFTERNOON.

THE TROUGH PASSAGE FOR FRIDAY NIGHT OR SATURDAY WILL BE RELATIVELY
QUICK WITH THE BEST CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION OVER THE NORTHERN
SIERRA AND NORTHWEST NV. THE MOISTURE TAP WILL INITIALLY BE BETTER
SO RAIN AND HIGH ELEVATION SNOW TOTALS COULD BE A BIT HIGHER FROM
THE TAHOE BASIN NORTHWARD INTO WESTERN LASSEN COUNTY. HOWEVER, THIS
MOISTURE BAND WEAKENS AS THE TROUGH PASSES ACROSS WESTERN NEVADA ON
SATURDAY SO FROM RENO-CARSON EASTWARD, ONLY SPOTTY RAIN AMOUNTS ARE
PROJECTED AT THIS TIME. GUSTY WINDS WILL LIKELY CONTINUE THROUGH
SATURDAY WITH TEMPERATURES 10-15 DEGREES COOLER THAN FRIDAY IN MOST
AREAS.

WEAK RIDGE THEN RETURNS FOR SUNDAY-MONDAY WITH DRY CONDITIONS
PREVAILING. SUNDAY IS EXPECTED TO BE EVEN COOLER THAN SATURDAY AS
LIGHT EAST WINDS DEVELOP AND PRODUCE A STRONGER INVERSION, FOLLOWED
BY A SLIGHT WARM UP ON MONDAY AS RIDGE AXIS MOVES EAST ACROSS NEVADA.
MJD

&&

.AVIATION...
SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WIND GUSTS OF 30-35 KT ARE EXPECTED AT AIRPORT
TERMINALS THROUGH THIS EVENING, WITH LOCALLY STRONGER GUSTS IN WIND
PRONE AREAS. RIDGE GUSTS ALONG THE SIERRA CREST WILL REACH
65-70 KT, WITH HIGH POTENTIAL FOR LEE SIDE TURBULENCE.

BANDS OF SHOWERS OVER NORTHEAST CA THIS AFTERNOON WILL MOVE ACROSS
THE SIERRA AND SPREAD TO NORTHWEST NV AND THE BASIN AND RANGE THIS
EVENING. A SHORT PERIOD OF MVFR CIGS/VSBY COULD OCCUR BTWN 02-05Z
FOR KTVL/KTRK DURING HEAVIER SHOWERS. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL
ALSO BE POSSIBLE THIS EVENING GENERALLY NORTH OF A PORTOLA TO
GERLACH LINE. A DRIER AND MORE STABLE AIR MASS ALONG WITH LIGHTER
WINDS WILL PREVAIL FOR TUESDAY. HOHMANN/MJD

&&

.REV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NV...LAKE WIND ADVISORY FROM 3 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 11 PM PDT THIS
     EVENING FOR PYRAMID LAKE IN NVZ004.

     LAKE WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM PDT THIS EVENING FOR LAKE TAHOE
     IN NVZ002.

CA...LAKE WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM PDT THIS EVENING FOR LAKE TAHOE
     IN CAZ072.

&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RENO (ALL LOWER CASE)







USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.