Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Reno, NV

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000
FXUS65 KREV 300914
AFDREV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RENO NV
214 AM PDT SAT AUG 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE MOVING ACROSS THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST WILL CREATE DRY
AND BREEZY CONDITIONS TODAY. NEAR AVERAGE TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED
FOR THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND. TEMPERATURES WILL WARM A FEW DEGREES
EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES AND BREEZY
CONDITIONS POSSIBLE BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.SHORT TERM...

AN UPPER LEVEL JET AT THE BASE OF A PACIFIC NORTHWEST TROUGH WILL
NOSE INTO NORTHEAST CA AND NORTHERN NV TODAY, WHILE A WESTERLY
SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT STRENGTHENS ACROSS THE SIERRA AND
WESTERN NV. THESE INGREDIENTS WILL CONTRIBUTE TO SUSTAINED
WESTERLY WINDS GENERALLY 15-25 MPH THIS AFTERNOON WITH GUSTS UP
TO 35 MPH. AS SUCH, LAKE WIND ADVISORIES FOR HAZARDOUS BOATING
CONDITIONS ARE IN EFFECT AFTER 11 AM TODAY FOR WESTERN NEVADA AND
THE SIERRA INCLUDING PYRAMID LAKE AND LAKE TAHOE. GUSTY WINDS
COMBINED WITH LOW HUMIDITY WILL ALSO CREATE CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER
CONDITIONS.  RED FLAG WARNINGS ARE IN EFFECT FOR THE SIERRA FRONT
AND PART OF WESTERN NV, SEE OUR FIRE WEATHER DISCUSSION BELOW FOR
MORE INFORMATION.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLOWLY DEVELOP WHILE THE AFOREMENTIONED TROUGH
MOVES EAST ACROSS THE ROCKY MOUNTAINS AND INTO THE NORTHERN
PLAINS SUNDAY AND LABOR DAY. THIS WILL PROVIDE CLEAR SKIES, NEAR
NORMAL AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES, AND LIGHT WINDS FOR THE EASTERN
SIERRA AND WESTERN NV. JCM

.LONG TERM...TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...

THE UPPER RIDGE OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN STATES WILL START TO WEAKEN
AS TROUGHING DEVELOPS OVER THE WEST COAST FOR THE SECOND HALF OF
NEXT WEEK. DRY SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL RETURN TO THE REGION WITH
WINDS BECOMING BREEZY AT TIMES DUE TO THE ENHANCED EAST-WEST
THERMAL AND PRESSURE GRADIENTS. WE WILL SEE A COOLING TREND
THROUGH THE WEEK WITH COOLER TEMPERATURES AND LOWER HEIGHTS
ALOFT. FORECAST CONFIDENCE REMAINS MODERATE AS MODELS STILL IN
DISAGREEMENT BEYOND WEDNESDAY ON THE DETAILS OF THE POSITIVELY
TILTED TROUGH OVER CA/NV. NONETHELESS, PRECIPITATION CHANCES ARE
NEAR ZERO THROUGH THE EXTENDED DUE TO THE LACK OF MOISTURE AND
SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. HOON

&&

.AVIATION...

GUSTY WINDS EXPECTED AGAIN THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING WITH STRONGEST
WINDS FROM I-80 SOUTH INCLUDING KRNO/KCXP/KMMH WITH GUSTS 25-30KTS.
BLDU POSSIBLE AT KLOL/KNFL AND BURNING MAN AIRFIELD.

SOME LIGHT TO MODERATE MOUNTAIN WAVE TURBULENCE IS POSSIBLE ALONG
AND EAST OF THE SIERRA CREST THROUGH TONIGHT WITH THE STRONGER
WINDS ALOFT. LIGHTER WINDS SUNDAY AND MONDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS BACK INTO THE REGION. HOON

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

A SHORTWAVE WILL PUSH THROUGH NORTHEASTERN CALIFORNIA AND WESTERN
NEVADA TODAY AS A JET DROPS INTO A FAVORABLE POSITION TO INDUCE
STRONGER SURFACE WINDS THIS AFTERNOON. NORTHWEST FLOW WILL PRODUCE
WINDS GENERALLY 15 TO 20 MPH WITH GUSTS AROUND 30 TO 35 MPH
ESPECIALLY ALONG THE SIERRA FRONT AND AREAS SOUTH OF INTERSTATE
80. MEANWHILE, TEMPERATURES WILL DECREASE FROM NORTHWEST TO
SOUTHEAST AS COOLER AIR PUSHES SOUTH BEHIND THE DRY FRONT. THIS
WILL RESULT IN HIGHER RELATIVE HUMIDITIES FOR EXTREME NORTHWESTERN
NEVADA AND NORTHEASTERN CALIFORNIA. HOWEVER, DAYTIME HEATING WILL
STILL POSE A THREAT IN CONJUNCTION WITH WINDS ALONG THE SIERRA
FRONT AND THE GREAT BASIN WITH AFTERNOON HUMIDITIES LOWER THAN
15%. THEREFORE, A RED FLAG WARNING WAS ISSUED FOR ZONES 450, 453,
AND 459. ADDITIONALLY, LOCALIZED RED FLAG CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE
FOR SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF 458, BUT WITHOUT ENOUGH COVERAGE OR
DURATION OF CONDITIONS TO WARRANT A WARNING.

CONDITIONS IMPROVE TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY AS HUMIDITY INCREASES WHILE
SURFACE TEMPERATURES CONTINUE TO COOL. WINDS TAPER OFF BY SUNDAY
AS WELL WITH FLOW OUT OF THE NORTH. RECOVERIES WILL IMPROVE
GREATLY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. MORE TYPICAL END-OF-SUMMER
CONDITIONS RETURN BY MID WEEK WITH FLOW BECOMING MORE WESTERLY.
BOYD/MITTELSTADT

&&

.REV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NV...RED FLAG WARNING FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 10 PM PDT THIS
     EVENING NVZ450-453-459.

     LAKE WIND ADVISORY FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 10 PM PDT THIS
     EVENING NVZ004.

     LAKE WIND ADVISORY FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 10 PM PDT THIS
     EVENING NVZ002.

     LAKE WIND ADVISORY FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 10 PM PDT THIS
     EVENING NVZ001.

CA...LAKE WIND ADVISORY FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 10 PM PDT THIS
     EVENING CAZ072.

&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RENO (ALL LOWER CASE)







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