Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Reno, NV

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FXUS65 KREV 282032 AAA
AFDREV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RENO NV
130 PM PDT THU MAY 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING A WARMING TREND WITH TEMPERATURES WELL
ABOVE AVERAGE THROUGH THIS WEEKEND. A COLD FRONT WILL BRING GUSTY
WINDS SUNDAY INTO MONDAY WITH TEMPERATURES COOLING TO NEAR NORMAL BY
MONDAY. A FEW THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY,
MAINLY NORTH OF INTERSTATE 80.

&&

.SHORT TERM...

RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO STRENGTHEN OVER THE WEST
COAST THIS WEEKEND WITH WARMING TEMPERATURES. A FEW DEGREES OF
WARMING ARE EXPECTED FOR FRIDAY AND AGAIN ON SATURDAY WITH TEMPS
PEAKING OUT AROUND 90 DEGREES IN THE LOWER VALLEYS AND UPPER 70S AND
LOW 80S IN THE SIERRA. DRIER AIR AND SUBSIDENCE ALOFT WILL KEEP ANY
THUNDERSTORMS OUT OF THE FORECAST FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY. ANYONE
PLANNING TO GO SWIMMING IN THE LOCAL LAKES AND RIVERS THIS WEEKEND
SHOULD BE AWARE OF COLD WATER TEMPERATURES THIS TIME OF YEAR IN THE
50S.

BY SUNDAY, A FAST MOVING SHORTWAVE TROUGH APPROACHES NORTHERN
CALIFORNIA WITH A STRONG ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT. THE JET WILL DRIP
ACROSS THE RENO-TAHOE AREA LATE SUNDAY WITH 700MB WINDS INCREASING
TO AROUND 40-45 KTS. EXPECT TO SEE INCREASING WINDS SUNDAY AFTERNOON
WITH GUSTS UP TO 40 MPH LIKELY IN THE VALLEYS, ESPECIALLY ALONG THE
HIGHWAY 395 CORRIDOR FROM MINDEN NORTHWARD TO SUSANVILLE. NO FIRE
WEATHER STATEMENTS ARE EXPECTED AT THIS TIME, DUE TO RECENT RAINFALL
AND HIGHER MOISTURE IN THE NATIVE VEGETATION. LAKE WIND ADVISORIES
WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED ON SUNDAY IF MODEL TRENDS CONTINUE. CHOPPY
CONDITIONS WOULD BE EXPECTED FOR LOCAL AREA LAKES, INCLUDING TAHOE
AND PYRAMID.

RIDGE WINDS WILL INCREASE SHARPLY SUNDAY NIGHT AS THE COLD FRONT
PASSES THROUGH THE AREA. THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS
SUNDAY NIGHT, ALTHOUGH THE BEST CHANCES FOR SHOWERS WILL BE MONDAY
AS THE UNSTABLE AIR PUSHES IN. HOON

.LONG TERM...MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...

LITTLE CHANGE WAS NEEDED TO THE ONGOING FORECAST AS MODELS ARE STILL
IN GOOD AGREEMENT BRINGING A TROUGH AND STRONG COLD FRONT THROUGH
THE REGION BY MONDAY. THIS WILL BRING BREEZY WEST WINDS TO THE AREA
WITH GUSTS OF 35 TO 45 MPH POSSIBLE ON MONDAY. THE TROUGH COMES INTO
THE SIERRA AND NORTHWEST NEVADA WITH A NEGATIVE TILT, WHICH IS
FAVORABLE FOR INCREASED THUNDERSTORM DYNAMICS. HOWEVER, THE DEEPEST
MOISTURE REMAINS NORTH INTO OREGON, SO HAVE ONLY LOW END CHANCES FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FOR AREAS MAINLY NORTH OF SUSANVILLE-
LOVELOCK LINE. A FEW SHORTWAVES MOVE THROUGH THE FLOW, KEEPING
SLIGHT CHANCES FOR SHOWERS NORTH OF INTERSTATE 80 THROUGH TUESDAY
BEFORE THE REGION RETURNS TO DRY WESTERLY FLOW.

LONG RANGE MODELS AND MOST ENSEMBLE MEMBERS HAVE CONTINUED THE TREND
TOWARD GENERAL TROUGHINESS OVER THE WEST LASTING THROUGH THE WORK
WEEK, WHICH IS DIFFERENT THAN THE WEAK RIDGING SHOWING UP YESTERDAY.
THEREFORE, WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES NEAR NORMAL FOR THE WEEK, BUT WITH
LACK OF MOISTURE BEYOND TUESDAY, THE FORECAST WILL REMAIN DRY
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. DJ

&&

.AVIATION...

WIDESPREAD VFR CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED ACROSS THE SIERRA AND
WESTERN NEVADA THIS WEEKEND WITH A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE
REGION. AS DRIER AIR WORKS INTO THE AREA, CHANCES FOR ANY FOG
DEVELOPMENT IN THE SIERRA CONTINUE TO LESSEN. THERE WAS ONLY PATCHY
FOG AROUND KTRK LAST NIGHT, AND THIS MAY BE THE CASE ONCE AGAIN
TONIGHT, BUT CHANCES ARE ONLY AROUND 40 PERCENT AND THEREFORE WILL
LEAVE OUT OF THE TAF. CHANCES FOR FOG SAT/SUN MORNINGS IN SIERRA
VALLEYS ARE AROUND 10 PERCENT.

WINDS WILL BE LIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY, BUT THEN BECOME GUSTY FOR
SUNDAY AND MONDAY AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT. GUSTS OF 30 TO 40 KTS CAN
BE EXPECTED BOTH AFTERNOONS AREA-WIDE WITH TURBULENCE LIKELY ON THE
LEE SIDE OF THE SIERRA. DJ

&&

.REV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NV...NONE.
CA...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RENO (ALL LOWER CASE)


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