Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Blacksburg, VA

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FXUS61 KRNK 291937
AFDRNK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
337 PM EDT FRI MAY 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE OFFSHORE WILL COVER MUCH OF THE EASTERN UNITED
STATES SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE
NORTHWEST LATE IN THE WEEKEND...THEN SOUTH OF THE AREA BY
MONDAY...RESULTING IN MORE WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
INTO TUESDAY. COOLER WEATHER WITH HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 245 PM EDT FRIDAY...

UPPER RIDGE AXIS PUSHES SLIGHTLY SOUTHEAST TONIGHT AND SATURDAY BUT
WILL STILL BE OVER VIRGINIA AND NORTH CAROLINA. A WEAK SURFACE FRONT
EXTENDED FROM THE DELMARVA TO OHIO. DO NOT EXPECT THIS BOUNDARY TO
MAKE ANY FARTHER PROGRESS SOUTH.

IF THERE IS ANY LINGERING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AFTER THE LOSS
OF DAYTIME HEATING...MODELS SHOWED THE MOST LIKELY LOCATION WILL BE
IN THE FAR NORTHWEST COUNTY WARNING AREA. THE SAME LOCATION HAS THE
BEST CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS AGAIN SATURDAY AFTERNOON. PLAN PUTTING
IN LITTLE TO NO CHANCE OF RAIN FROM 07/3AM THROUGH NOON/17Z
SATURDAY.

SIMILAR TO FRIDAY MORNING...LOCATIONS THAT HAVE RAIN THIS AFTERNOON
ARE MORE LIKELY TO HAVE FOG OVERNIGHT. WILL ADD IN MORE PATCHY FOG
AFTER MIDNIGHT.

GUIDANCE WAS TOO WARM FOR THE LOWS FRIDAY MORNING. WILL LEAN TOWARD
SOMEWHAT COOLER MET GUIDANCE FOR OVERNIGHT LOWS. EXPECT MAXIMUM
TEMPERATURES FOR SATURDAY TO BE SIMILAR TO FRIDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 230 PM EDT FRIDAY...

HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN ANCHORED OFF THE COAST OF THE CAROLINAS
DURING THIS PORTION OF THE FORECAST...ALL WHILE AN UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH AND SURFACE COLD FRONT PUSH EAST THROUGH THE MID-WEST. THE
RESULT WILL BE INCREASING CHANCES OF MORE THAN SIMPLY DIURNALLY
BASED SHOWERS AND STORMS. WE WILL GAIN INCREASED JET DYNAMICS WITH
THE APPROACH OF THE TROUGH/FRONT...ESPECIALLY ACROSS WESTERN PARTS
OF THE REGION. THE FRONT ITSELF WILL MOVE INTO AND ACROSS THE AREA
MONDAY NIGHT.

TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD WILL TREND SLIGHTLY COOLER THANKS TO
INCREASED CLOUD COVER...AND A TREND TOWARD SLIGHTLY LOWER DEW POINTS
BEHIND THE FRONT MONDAY NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 245 PM EDT FRIDAY...

THE COLD FRONT WILL WASH OUT OVER OR JUST SOUTH OF THE AREA BY
TUESDAY AFTERNOON. AFTER THIS POINT...THE REGION WILL START TO
TRANSITION BACK A SOUTHERLY FLOW PATTERN AS A LOW/TROUGH DEVELOPS
ACROSS THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY...AND HIGH PRESSURE
BECOMES CENTERED AGAIN OFF THE COAST OF THE CAROLINAS. DAYTIME
HEATING ALONG WITH PIECES OF ENERGY EJECTING OFF THE LOWER
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY LOW WILL HELP YIELD INCREASING CHANCE OF SHOWERS
AND STORMS AGAIN BY THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL ALSO
START TO TREND MILDER THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 140 PM EDT FRIDAY...

SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAD DEVELOPED ACROSS THE
REGION. HAVE INCLUDED ONLY IN THE KBLF TAF WHERE STORMS WERE
DIRECTLY UPSTREAM OF THE AIRPORT. OTHERWISE HAVE VCTS IN UNTIL
03Z. HIGH CONFIDENCE THAT STORMS WILL DISSIPATE WITH THE LOSS OF
HEATING THIS EVENING. SPC HRRR GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT AFTER
01Z/9PM THERE WILL BE LITTLE TO NO CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY LEFT. BEST
PROBABILITY THAT SHOWERS WILL LINGER WILL IN SOUTHEAST WEST
VIRGINIA THROUGH 03Z/11PM.

LOCATIONS THAT HAVE RAIN THIS AFTERNOON WILL LIKELY HAVE MVFR OR
IFR FOG OVERNIGHT. SIMILAR TO FRIDAY MORNING...EXPECT A MAJORITY
OF THE FOG TO DISSIPATE BY 13Z/9AM. EXPECT COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ON SATURDAY TO BE LESS THAN FRIDAY...AND CONFINED
MAINLY TO SOUTHEAST WEST VIRGINIA.

EXTENDED DISCUSSION...

THROUGH SUNDAY...A MOIST UNSTABLE AIR MASS WILL REMAIN IN PLACE
ACROSS THE REGION WITH ONLY WEAK FORCING. THIS WILL RESULT IN
MAINLY SLOW MOVING DIURNALLY DRIVEN DEEP CONVECTION DURING THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS FOLLOWED BY STABLE CONDITIONS AND
PATCHY MVFR FOG AT NIGHT.

A FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL APPROACH FROM THE NORTH SUNDAY NIGHT. THIS
BOUNDARY SHOULD FINALLY SINK SOUTH INTO THE REGION BY MONDAY RESULTING
IN WIDESPREAD CONVECTION...WITH ADDITIONAL ROUNDS OF SHRA/TSRA
INTO AT LEAST MONDAY NIGHT BEFORE THE BOUNDARY SINKS TO THE
SOUTH. THIS SHOULD MAKE FOR MORE FREQUENT PERIODS OF SUB-VFR FROM
SUNDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING WITH LOWER CIGS/VSBY REDUCTIONS
DUE TO SHOWERS/STORMS DURING THE DAY...AND IN FOG OVERNIGHT INTO
THE EARLY MORNING HOURS EACH DAY. LOWER MVFR/IFR CIGS ARE LIKELY
BEHIND THE FRONT ON TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY WITH EASTERLY FLOW AND
WEDGING IN PLACE RESULTING IN MVFR CEILINGS.

MAY SEE ENOUGH DRYING TO BRING AN END TO THE LOWER CLOUDS AND
PRECIPITATION ON THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. THESE ARE THE MOST LIKELY
DAYS TO BE VFR.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...AMS
NEAR TERM...AMS
SHORT TERM...DS
LONG TERM...DS
AVIATION...AMS/JH


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