Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Springfield, MO

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039
FXUS63 KSGF 162346
AFDSGF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Springfield MO
546 PM CST Sat Dec 16 2017

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Sunday)
Issued at 232 PM CST Sat Dec 16 2017

An upper level low is currently over western Texas and moving
northeastward tonight. Regional radars are showing an area of
scattered showers expanding near the Red River Valley region as
well as moving northward. Most if not all the area will be see
some light rain showers late tonight into Sunday morning. The area
of showers will begin to move into southwestern Missouri and
southeastern Kansas around midnight. Most of the showers will exit
the area by late Sunday morning. Rainfall amounts will be light
averaging between 0.10" to 0.35". Clouds will hang around most of
the day on Sunday with temperatures about 10 degrees cooler than
today.

.LONG TERM...(Sunday Night through Saturday)
Issued at 232 PM CST Sat Dec 16 2017

We will see a return of light southerly winds for early in the
week with mild temperatures.The area will remain in a pseudo
split to zonal flow with a cut off upper level low over the
southwestern U.S. early in the week. This feature will slowly open
up and move eastward along the southern U.S. by mid week which
may skirt by the area late Tuesday into Wednesday. This storm
system may bring a chance for a few showers across southern
Missouri.

Mild weather continues into Thursday with southerly winds becoming
breezy with a developing low pressure system near the Lee of the
Rockies. A big overall weather pattern change will begin Thursday
into Friday as a trough digs across the Rocky Mountains Region.

A polar cold front will move through the area Thursday night into
early Friday morning with temperatures crashing. Depending on
moisture availability post frontal, there may be a slight chance
for a few showers or maybe even a few snow flakes as the colder
air moves in Friday morning. At this time we do not see any
impacts or accumulations. Confidence is high that the end of next
week into next weekend will be much colder. There are some
questions and uncertainty of the overall upper level pattern with
the GFS holding a cut off low near the southwestern U.S. and the
EURO shows a large and broad trough over much of the central U.S.
with some weak energy in the flow. Forecast details will become
much clearer over the next several days for next weekend.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Sunday evening)
Issued at 539 PM CST Sat Dec 16 2017

An upper level storm system will bring rain to the region from
late tonight into Sunday morning along with lowering flight
categories. MVFR ceilings will spread over the region later
tonight with areas of IFR then expected by sunrise. MVFR
visibility will also accompany the rain.

Ceilings will then improve to MVFR by late Sunday morning as the
rain ends. However, it appears that MVFR ceilings may then persist
for much of the day.

Surface winds through the period will slowly veer from southerly
to southwesterly. Speeds over 12 knots can be expected at times.

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Griffin
LONG TERM...Griffin
AVIATION...Schaumann



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