Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS San Diego, CA
FXUS66 KSGX 250925
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Diego CA
225 AM PDT Tue Oct 25 2016
Fair and warmer weather is expected as we have a few days of
higher pressure. Another low pressure system will bring cooler
weather and showers Thursday night and Friday. Generally fair on
Saturday before another small chance of showers appears with the
next system around Sunday. It looks dry and mild next week.
.DISCUSSION...FOR EXTREME SOUTHWESTERN CALIFORNIA INCLUDING ORANGE...
SAN DIEGO...WESTERN RIVERSIDE AND SOUTHWESTERN SAN BERNARDINO
Thick higher cloud layers moved out overnight leaving only some
residual lower clouds west of the mountains this morning. These
will give way to mostly sunny skies today albeit with some cumulus
over mountains. High pressure aloft will bring us dry and warmer
weather the next few days with daytime temps topping out in the
80s for many lower elevations Wednesday and Thursday. A more
organized marine layer with a better defined inversion will bring
us some random coastal clouds nights and mornings. A big trough
of low pressure over the eastern Pacific will spin a shortwave
into California Friday. This thing has a lot of moisture with it
and central California appears in the path of a lot of rain, which
would be good for them. In Southern California we will see
increasing high clouds Wednesday and Thursday in advance of that
wave. Early Friday morning we should start getting showers in LA
and Orange County and that will spread across the region, but
Southern California will be on the southern fringes of this wet
system. Accordingly, our projected rainfall looks rather paltry
especially in San Diego County. Better amounts appear in Orange
and San Bernardino Counties, up to a half inch in the mountains.
We could get some elevated convection to produce thunderstorms,
but need greater confidence yet to forecast them. The system
doesn`t really move out cleanly Friday night. Residual moisture
seems to hang around through Saturday, but there are no dynamics
to turn that stuff into rain. Another weak shortwave rotates
through Southern California Sunday. It looks weaker than the
Friday wave, but with the moisture around, enough to mention a
small chance of showers for now. A cool weak trough pattern
continues next week so no big warmup is on the horizon. With a
rather moist atmosphere hanging around, any weak trough could
trigger some precip as we head into November.
250900Z...Patchy low stratus decks this morning will affect the
coastal airports from time to time. SCT-BKN CIGS between 1000 to
1500 ft MSL will gradually diminish by 18Z. Additional VFR cloud
layer will also persist this morning with BKN-OVC bases in the 5,000
to 10,000 ft MSL range, will also gradually diminish through 18Z
this morning. Fair skies and light westerly winds are expected after
18Z this morning, with patchy low clouds returning to the coast
after 03Z this evening.
No hazardous weather conditions are expected through Thursday. A
storm system will affect the region Friday and Saturday, and this
period will have to be monitored for potential thunderstorm activity.
Skywarn activation is not requested. However weather spotters are
encouraged to report significant weather conditions.