Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS San Diego, CA

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000
FXUS66 KSGX 242040
AFDSGX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN DIEGO CA
140 PM PDT FRI OCT 24 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE INLAND ACROSS THE WEST COAST THIS
WEEKEND...WITH COOLER CONDITIONS...ONSHORE FLOW...AND THE MARINE
LAYER RETURNING.  THE MARINE LAYER MAY DEEPEN ENOUGH FOR SOME PATCHY
DRIZZLE WEST OF THE MOUNTAINS BY SUNDAY MORNING...WITH LOCALLY GUSTY
WEST WINDS POSSIBLE IN THE MOUNTAINS AND DESERTS EACH AFTERNOON AND
EVENING.  HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN REBUILD ACROSS THE WEST...WITH DRY
AND WARMER CONDITIONS DEVELOPING NEXT WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...FOR EXTREME SOUTHWESTERN CALIFORNIA INCLUDING ORANGE...
SAN DIEGO...WESTERN RIVERSIDE AND SOUTHWESTERN SAN BERNARDINO
COUNTIES...

WATER VAPOR IMAGERY CONTINUES TO SHOW HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE DESERT
SOUTHWEST THIS AFTERNOON AND A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE DIGGING OVER
THE PACIFIC AND A SECONDARY UPPER LEVEL LOW LIFTING TOWARDS SOUTHERN
CALIFORNIA.  AT THIS POINT IN TIME...SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA REMAINS
UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE RIDGE...WITH VERY WARM CONDITIONS
PREVAILING ACROSS THE REGION.  IN FACT...MOST AREAS ARE RUNNING 3 TO
7 DEGREES WARMER THAN THIS TIME YESTERDAY.  THIS WILL MAKE FOR A
VERY PLEASANT EVENING ACROSS THE REGION...WITH CLEAR SKIES
PREVAILING.  HOWEVER...A SHALLOW MARINE LAYER WILL LIKELY REDEVELOP
LATE TONIGHT...WITH SOME PATCHY DENSE FOG POSSIBLE ALONG THE COAST.
THE MARINE LAYER SHOULD LIFT A LITTLE THOUGH...SO ALTHOUGH THE
IMMEDIATE COAST MAY INITIALLY SEE SOME PATCHY DENSE FOG...THE
COASTAL MESAS AND WESTERN VALLEYS COULD ACTUALLY SEE SOME DENSE FOG
BY MORNING.

THE UPPER LEVEL LOW TO OUR SOUTHWEST WILL LIFT ACROSS SOUTHERN
CALIFORNIA ON SATURDAY...BRINGING THE RETURN OF ONSHORE FLOW AND
SOME COOLER CONDITIONS TO THE REGION.  TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY
RETURN TO NORMAL RANGES WEST OF THE MOUNTAINS...BUT REMAIN ABOUT 5
DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL IN THE DESERTS.  THE COOLING TREND WILL
CONTINUE INTO SUNDAY...AS A COLD TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE MOVES INLAND
ACROSS THE WEST COAST...WITH TEMPERATURES RUNNING UP TO 10 DEGREES
BELOW NORMAL.  THE MARINE LAYER WILL ALSO DEEPEN QUICKLY SATURDAY
NIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING IN RESPONSE TO THIS TROUGH...PUSHING WELL
INTO THE INLAND VALLEYS AND POTENTIALLY PRODUCING SOME DRIZZLE.
OTHERWISE EXPECT SOME LOCALLY GUSTY WEST WINDS TO DEVELOP IN THE
MOUNTAINS AND DESERTS EACH AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN REBUILD OVER THE WEST COAST FOR THE FIRST
PART OF THE WORK WEEK...WITH DRY AND WARMER CONDITIONS DEVELOPING
ONCE AGAIN.  AT THIS POINT IN TIME...IT APPEARS THAT SOME WEAK
OFFSHORE WINDS MAY DEVELOP DURING THIS TIME...BUT IF THEY DO...THEY
WOULD LIKELY BE LIMITED TO THE FAVORED INLAND CANYONS AND PASSES.
THE EXTENDED SOLUTIONS ARE NOW COMING INTO BETTER AGREEMENT SHOWING
THE RIDGE REMAINING IN PLACE OVER THE WEST COAST THROUGH THE END OF
THE WORK WEEK.  FOR THIS REASON...THINK THAT THE DRY AND WARM
CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH FRIDAY.  THAT
BEING SAID...THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MAY BE CLOSE ENOUGH TO THE WEST
COAST BY FRIDAY THOUGH...THAT TEMPERATURES MAY MODERATE A BIT ALONG
THE COAST.

&&

.AVIATION...
242000Z...COAST...THROUGH 02Z...MOSTLY CLEAR WITH UNRESTRICTED
VIS...EXCEPT ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST AT TIMES...02Z-06Z LOCAL CIGS
AOB 400 FT MSL AND VIS AOB 3SM IN BR/FG DEVELOPING AND BECOMING
WIDESPREAD AFT 06Z THROUGH 12Z SAT. CIGS RISING TO 400-800 FT MSL
AND VIS 3-5SM BR 12Z THROUGH 18Z SAT. LOW TO MODERATE CONFIDENCE ON
CIG/VIS LEVELS AND MODERATE CONFIDENCE ON TIMING.

VALLEYS/MOUNTAINS/DESERTS...FEW CLOUDS AOA 6000 FT MSL...OTHERWISE
MOSTLY CLEAR WITH UNRESTRICTED VIS THROUGH SAT MORNING...EXCEPT FOR
AREAS OF 3-5SM AND LOCALLY BELOW 2SM VIS IN FG/BR 12Z/18Z SAT.
CONFIDENCE LOW ON EXTENT OF VIS RESTRICTIONS DUE TO FG/BR. CIGS AND
VIS RESTRICTIONS BELOW 3SM NOT EXPECTED AT KONT AT THIS TIME.

&&

.MARINE...
100 PM...PATCHY DENSE FOG WITH VISIBILITY OF ONE MILE OR LESS OVER
THE COASTAL WATERS AT TIMES THROUGH TONIGHT. OTHERWISE...NO
HAZARDOUS MARINE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH TUESDAY.

&&

.BEACHES...
.800 AM...SURF WILL BE INCREASING ON SUNDAY DUE TO A 13 SECOND 9 FT
WEST-NORTHWEST SWELL MOVING THROUGH THE COASTAL WATERS. SURF OF 3-5
FT...WITH INFREQUENT SETS TO 7 FEET ARE POSSIBLE AS A LONGER PERIOD
2 FT SOUTH SWELL MIXES WITH THE LARGE WEST SWELL. FAVORED AREAS FOR
LARGER SURF WILL BE SOUTH OF SOLANA BEACH AND EXPOSED BEACHES OF
ORANGE COUNTY. STRONG AND DANGEROUS RIP CURRENTS ARE LIKELY...
ESPECIALLY SUNDAY AFTERNOON AS THE TIDE RECEDES. A BEACH HAZARD
STATEMENT HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR SUNDAY.

&&

.SKYWARN...
SKYWARN ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NEEDED TODAY.

&&

.SGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT FROM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY
     EVENING FOR THE ORANGE COUNTY COASTAL AREAS...SAN DIEGO
     COUNTY COASTAL AREAS.

PZ...NONE.

&&

$$

PUBLIC...PALMER
AVIATION/MARINE...JAD






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