National Weather Service Weather Forecast Office

• Home
• Site Map
• News
• Organization
• Search for: NWS All NOAA 

000
FXUS66 KSGX 230435
AFDSGX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN DIEGO CA
930 PM PDT WED MAY 22 2013

.SYNOPSIS...
THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH CURRENTLY OVER THE WEST COAST WILL REMAIN IN
PLACE THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK...RESULTING IN BELOW AVERAGE
TEMPERATURES ACROSS SOCAL THROUGH THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND. THROUGH THIS
TIME PERIOD AREAS WEST OF THE MOUNTAINS WILL SEE OVERNIGHT AND
MORNING LOW CLOUDS...WHILE THE MOUNTAINS AND DESERTS WILL SEE
PERIODS OF GUSTY ONSHORE WINDS IN THE FAVORED AREAS DURING THE LATE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS. THE TROUGH REMAINS MORE OR LESS IN
PLACE EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...FOR EXTREME SOUTHWESTERN CALIFORNIA INCLUDING ORANGE...
SAN DIEGO...WESTERN RIVERSIDE AND SOUTHWESTERN SAN BERNARDINO
COUNTIES...

A DEEP CLOSED LOW ANCHORED OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST WILL
PERPETUATE BROAD CYCLONIC FLOW OVER THE WEST THIS WEEK...AND WILL BE
OUR DOMINATE WEATHER PATTERN THROUGH THE UPCOMING HOLIDAY WEEKEND.
EXPECT A COOLER DAY TOMORROW...AND FOR MAX TEMPERATURES TO BE A
LITTLE BELOW AVERAGE THROUGH SUNDAY. THE TROUGH WILL ALSO KEEP A
PERSISTENT MARINE LAYER IN PLACE. CLOUDS WILL SPREAD INTO THE
VALLEYS EACH NIGHT BEFORE RETREATING BACK TO THE COAST IN THE
AFTERNOON. THIS EBB AND FLOW OF THE MARINE LAYER WILL BE A DAILY
OCCURRENCE THROUGH SUNDAY WITH SMALL VARIATIONS IN ITS DEPTH. THE
APTLY NAMED "MAY GRAY" WILL BE A POPULAR PHRASE.

TONIGHT THE MARINE LAYER IS BEING SUPPORTED BY A STRONG COASTAL EDDY
THAT WILL DEEPEN THE MARINE LAYER ENOUGH TO GENERATE AREAS OF
DRIZZLE EARLY THURSDAY MORNING. THE EDDY WILL BE A LITTLE WEAKER
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.

THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND MODERATELY STRONG ONSHORE GRADIENTS WILL
ALSO CONTINUE THE DIURNALLY DRIVEN AFTERNOON AND EVENING GUSTY WINDS
IN THE MOUNTAINS AND DESERTS THROUGH SUNDAY.

THE LONG RANGE ECMWF AND EC ENSEMBLE MEAN CONTINUE TO FORECAST A
MEAN TROUGH OVER THE WEST RESULTING IN NEGATIVE DEPARTURES FROM
NORMAL IN THE TEMPERATURES FIELDS. THE GFS FORECAST OF HIGHER
HEIGHTS AND WARMER DAYS EARLY NEXT WEEK HAS BEEN DISCOUNTED IN FAVOR
OF THE MORE CONSISTENT ECMWF MODEL RUNS.

ASTRONOMICAL HIGH TIDES THIS WEEKEND...A FULL MOON FRIDAY WILL BRING
HIGH TIDES ABOVE 7 FEET OVER THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND. THE 7.2 FT HIGH
TIDE FRIDAY NIGHT WILL RECEDE TO -1.7 FT SATURDAY MORNING. EXPECT
SIMILAR HIGH AND LOW TIDES SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY MORNING.

&&

.AVIATION...
230300Z...COAST/VALLEYS...STRATUS...WITH BASES AROUND 2200 FT MSL
AND TOPS NEAR 2800 FT MSL...HAS DEVELOPED ALONG MOST OF THE SAN
DIEGO AND ORANGE COUNTY COAST AND WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP AROUND
30-50 SM INLAND BY 09 UTC TONIGHT. VIS OF 2-4 SM BR IS POSSIBLE
WHERE STRATUS MEETS HIGHER TERRAIN. A COASTAL EDDY WILL HELP LIFT
STRATUS AROUND 500 FT OVERNIGHT...AND CREATE PATCHY DRIZZLE BY MID
THU MORNING. LOW CLOUDS WILL CLEAR TOWARDS THE COAST BY 18 UTC THU
MORNING...AND REDEVELOP ALONG THE COAST AROUND 00 UTC THU EVENING.

MTNS/DESERTS...GUSTY WESTERLY WINDS AROUND 50 KT WILL CONTINUE OVER
THE MTNS AND DESERTS THROUGH EARLY TONIGHT. WINDS WILL WEAKEN THU
MORNING...AND INCREASE AGAIN THU AFTN GUSTING TO AROUND 40 KT.
OTHERWISE...MOSTLY CLEAR WITH UNRESTRICTED VIS THROUGH THU EVENING.

&&

.MARINE...
A 5-8 FT/11 SEC NW SWELL WILL CONTINUE TO CREATE CHOPPY...ROUGH SEAS
IN THE OUTER COASTAL WATERS THROUGH EARLY FRIDAY. CONDITIONS MAY
BE HAZARDOUS TO SMALL CRAFT.

HIGHER AND LOWER THAN NORMAL TIDES...WITH SWINGS OF 8.9 FEET...WILL
COMBINE WITH SURF TO CREATE POTENTIAL MINOR COASTAL FLOODING FRIDAY
THROUGH MEMORIAL DAY. STRONG RIP CURRENTS WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH
THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND.

&&

.SGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 2 AM THURSDAY FOR THE MOUNTAINS AND DESERTS.

&&


$$

PUBLIC...MOEDE
AVIATION/MARINE...JJT