Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS San Diego, CA

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000
FXUS66 KSGX 072130
AFDSGX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN DIEGO CA
130 PM PST SUN FEB 7 2016

.SYNOPSIS... STRONG HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT AND AT THE SURFACE WILL
MEAN SANTA ANA CONDITIONS ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH MIDWEEK. AREAS OF
GUSTY OFFSHORE WINDS WILL BRING VERY DRY AND WARM WEATHER INTO
MIDWEEK. STRONGEST WINDS WILL BE BELOW WIND-FAVORED PASSES AND
CANYONS TONIGHT INTO MONDAY...THEN WEAKEN THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
DAYTIME HIGHS WILL BE WELL ABOVE AVERAGE UNDER SUNNY SKIES.
GRADUAL COOLING WILL BEGIN ALONG THE BEACHES LATER IN THE WEEK...
PEAKING OVER THE WEEKEND AS A WEAK TROUGH MOVES ONSHORE...
WEAKENING THE RIDGE. WARM AND DRY AGAIN NEXT WEEK AS THE RIDGE
REBUILDS.

&&

.DISCUSSION...FOR EXTREME SOUTHWESTERN CALIFORNIA INCLUDING ORANGE...
SAN DIEGO...WESTERN RIVERSIDE AND SOUTHWESTERN SAN BERNARDINO
COUNTIES...

SKIES REMAIN CLEAR ACROSS ALL OF SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON. WINDS ARE INCREASING BELOW THE PASSES AND CANYONS WITH
STRONG OFFSHORE SFC PRESSURE GRADIENTS IN PLACE FROM THE GREAT
BASIN. AT 1 PM PST...THE SFC GRADIENT FROM TONOPAH NV TO SAN DIEGO
WAS ALMOST 17 MBS. THIS IS ALREADY FUELING WIND GUSTS OVER 50 MPH IN
A FEW WIND-FAVORED SPOTS IN OUR MTS...BUT WINDS WERE GUSTING OVER
30 MPH BELOW THE CAJON PASS TOO.

THE NE WINDS WILL INCREASE THROUGH THE NIGHT AS THE SFC PRESSURE
GRADIENT INCREASES FURTHER IN RESPONSE TO THE BUILDING OF A 1042 MB
HIGH OVER SE IDAHO BY MORNING. THERE IS VERY LITTLE UPPER-LEVEL
SUPPORT HOWEVER...SO WHILE STILL STRONG...THE PEAK WIND GUSTS WILL
LIKELY BE CONFINED TO AREAS NEAR AND BELOW WIND-FAVORED PASSES AND
CANYONS. THE HEAVILY TRAVELED ARTERIES BELOW THE CAJON PASS WILL BE
THE MAIN AREA OF CONCERN FOR IMPACT AS GUSTS THERE COULD AFFECT
DRIVERS IN HIGH PROFILE VEHICLES WITH LIGHTER LOADS. A HIGH WIND
WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THESE AREAS THROUGH MON AFTERNOON. PLEASE
SEE LAXNPWSGX FOR FURTHER INFORMATION.

A HIGHLY AMPLIFIED...MID-WINTER PATTERN IS DEVELOPING ALOFT OVER N.A.
THROUGH TUESDAY. A STRONG RIDGE OVER THE WEST WILL BRING RECORD...
OR NEAR RECORD HEAT...WHILE A DEEP TROUGH BRINGS VERY COLD WEATHER
OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE COUNTRY. THIS PATTERN WILL DEAMPLIFY
SOMEWHAT AFTER MIDWEEK...BUT IT IS A PATTERN THAT WILL LIKELY PERSIST
FOR SOME TIME. THIS LESSENS ANY CHANCE FOR PRECIP ACROSS CALIFORNIA
INTO NEXT WEEK. THE ONLY GLITCH IN THE PATTERN OCCURS LATE IN THE
WEEK WHEN A TROUGH MAKES A RUN INTO THE RIDGE. THIS SHOULD BRING
A RETURN OF ONSHORE FLOW...SOME MARITIME AIR FOR HIGHER HUMIDITY...
AND SLIGHTLY COOLER DAYS INTO THE WEEKEND. THEN IT LOOKS LIKE BACK TO
RIDGING ALOFT AND WARM WEATHER EARLY NEXT WEEK.

LOOKING AHEAD...THE DETERMINISTIC MODEL RUNS OF THE ECMWF/GFS ARE
HINTING AT THE NEXT CHANCE OF PRECIP ACROSS SOCAL BETWEEN THE 17TH
AND 19TH OF THE MONTH.

&&

FIRE WEATHER...

THE COMBINATION OF NORTHEAST WINDS OF 25 TO 35 MPH WITH HIGHER
GUSTS...AND MINIMUM RH OF AROUND TEN PERCENT MON AND TUE...WILL
CREATE CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS FOR SEVERAL HOURS MONDAY
AFTERNOON AND AGAIN ON TUESDAY...ESPECIALLY IN WIND-FAVORED AREAS.
HOWEVER...FUEL MOISTURE LEVELS ARE NOT FAVORABLE FOR EXPLOSIVE FIRE
GROWTH...SO NO FIRE WEATHER PRODUCTS ARE IN EFFECT OR ANTICIPATED AT
THIS TIME.

&&

.AVIATION...

072100...UNRESTRICTED VIS AND MOSTLY SKC THROUGH MONDAY MORNING. NE
TO E WINDS 15-25 KT WITH GUSTS 30-35 KT THROUGH AND BELOW
PASSES/CANYONS...AND ALONG COASTAL SLOPES AND COASTAL
FOOTHILLS...WILL CONTINUE THIS AFTERNOON...PRODUCING AREAS OF MOD-
STG UDDFS/LLWS OVER AND W OF THE MTNS. THESE WINDS AND ASSOCIATED
UDDFS/LLWS WILL STRENGTHEN FOR LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO MONDAY
MORNING TO 25-35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 50-60 KT. ROTORS WILL ALSO BE
POSSIBLE. KSNA COULD SEE GUSTY NE WINDS OF 10-20 KT THIS AFTERNOON
AND THEN AGAIN LATE THIS EVENING. MEANWHILE...KONT MAY SEE
OCCASIONAL 20-30 KT WINDS DURING THE 2100-08/0300 UTC TIME-
PERIOD...BUT MORE LIKELY BY 08/0400 UTC. WINDS AT KONT AND KSNA WILL
STRENGTHEN FURTHER BY ABOUT 5-10 KT LATE IN THE EVENING THROUGH
EARLY MONDAY MORNING. WINDS MAY WEAKEN A LITTLE AT KONT LATE MONDAY
MORNING...BUT CONTINUE STRONG AT KSNA. LLWS LIKELY TO OCCUR AT KSNA
AND KONT DURING TIMES WHEN WIND DOES NOT SURFACE. SOME LLWS COULD
OCCUR AT KPSP THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING DUE TO SOME STRONG
NORTHERLY WINDS ALOFT AND WEST WINDS AT THE SFC.

&&

.MARINE...
100 PM...NO HAZARDOUS MARINE WEATHER EXPECTED THROUGH THURSDAY.

&&

.SKYWARN...
SKYWARN ACTIVATION IS NOT REQUESTED. HOWEVER WEATHER SPOTTERS ARE
 ENCOURAGED TO REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER CONDITIONS.


&&

.SGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...WIND ADVISORY FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 4 PM PST MONDAY FOR
     SAN DIEGO COUNTY MOUNTAINS-SAN DIEGO COUNTY VALLEYS.

     HIGH WIND WARNING FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 4 PM PST MONDAY
     FOR ORANGE COUNTY INLAND AREAS-RIVERSIDE COUNTY MOUNTAINS-
     SAN BERNARDINO COUNTY MOUNTAINS-SAN BERNARDINO AND
     RIVERSIDE COUNTY VALLEYS-THE INLAND EMPIRE-SAN GORGONIO
     PASS NEAR BANNING-SANTA ANA MOUNTAINS AND FOOTHILLS.

PZ...NONE.

&&

$$

PUBLIC...JAD
AVIATION/MARINE...HARRISON


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