Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS San Juan, PR

Home | Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | Print | Product List | Glossary On
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50
266
FXCA62 TJSJ 120237 AAA
AFDSJU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
1037 PM AST THU FEB 11 2016

.UPDATE...LITTLE OR NO CHANGES TO THE GRIDS EXCEPT ON THE MARINE
SIDE. SOUNDING FROM 12/00Z CAME IN SLIGHTLY DRIER THAN YESTERDAY
AND RADAR SHOWS LITTLE ACTIVITY OVER LAND...BUT SMALL SHOWERS HAVE
GROWN IN NUMBER OVER THE LOCAL WATERS. THE MIMIC PRODUCT SHOWS A
FILAMENT OF MOISTURE OVER THE AREA THAT WILL LIKELY REMAIN OVER
THE AREA AS IT IS MOVING EASTERLY LENGTHWISE WITH THE FLOW FOR
THE MOMENT. HENCE THE SMALL SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE AND A FEW WILL
LIKELY MOVE ONTO THE WINDWARD SHORES OF PUERTO RICO.

&&

.DISCUSSION...SHOWERS ARE MOVING AROUND PUERTO RICO IN A TYPICAL
WAKE FORMATION WITH A FEW STREAMERS COMING OFF OF SAINT CROIX. BUT
MOST OF THE SHOWERS ARE AROUND PUERTO RICO AND NOT THE U.S. VIRGIN
ISLANDS AT THIS TIME. LITTLE CHANGE IS EXPECTED AND MOSTLY SUNNY
WEATHER WILL GRACE US ONCE AGAIN TOMORROW.


&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDS AT ALL TERMINALS DURG THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
HOWEVER...FEW LIGHT PASSING SHOWERS MAY DEVELOP AND MOV W OVR THE
COASTAL WATERS BTW ERN PR AND THE NRN LEEWARDS. SCT CLD LYRS
FL030...FL050...CLR ABV. LOW LEVEL WINDS FM THE EAST 10-15 KTS BLO
FL100...THEN VEERING AND BCMG FM S-SW WHILE INCR W/HT. SFC WND
LGT/VRB OVR LAND TIL 12/14Z...FOLLOWED BY LOCAL SEA BREEZE
VARIATIONS WITH HIGHER GUST OF 20-22 KTS PSBL. NO SIG OPERATIONAL WX
IMPACT ATTM.

&&

.MARINE...MODEL IS RUNNING ABOUT ONE FOOT TOO LOW AND THIS KEEPS
THE ATLANTIC OUTER WATERS UNDER SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY SEAS UNTIL
SATURDAY AFTERNOON. RIP CURRENT RISK IS ALSO EXTENDED THROUGH
FRIDAY NIGHT FOR ALL BUT THE NORTHERN U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS. MODELS
ARE CURRENTLY INDICATING INCREASING WINDS AND SEAS BEGINNING
MONDAY AND CONTINUING THROUGH TUESDAY AS A VERY STRONG HIGH
DEVELOPS IN THE NORTH CENTRAL ATLANTIC.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 223 PM AST THU FEB 11 2016/

SYNOPSIS...MID TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL REMAIN AS THE MAIN
WEATHER FEATURE ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH FRIDAY. A POLAR TROUGH
WILL MOVE ACROSS THE WESTERN ATLANTIC DURING THE UPCOMING WEEKEND
ERODING THE UPPER RIDGE. A SERIES OF EASTERLY PERTURBATION WILL
MOVE ACROSS THE LOCAL ISLANDS BY THE WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK.

DISCUSSION...LATEST SATELLITE AND RADAR OBSERVATIONS THIS
AFTERNOON DEPICTED LIMITED MOISTURE ACROSS THE LOCAL ISLANDS. FEW
ISOLATED SHOWERS WERE DETECTED OVER THE CARIBBEAN WATERS...BUT NOT
SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION WAS OBSERVED OVER LAND AREAS. A GENERAL
DRY AND STABLE WEATHER PATTERN WILL CONTINUE TO PREVAIL ACROSS
THE REGION UNTIL THE END OF THE WORK WEEK. A DEEP POLAR TROUGH
IS EXPECTED TO AMPLIFY ACROSS THE WESTERN ATLANTIC BY THE WEEKEND.
THIS TROUGH WILL ERODE RAPIDLY THE MID TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGE. AS
THIS HAPPENS...A SERIES OF LOW LEVEL PERTURBATIONS ARE EXPECTED TO
MOVE ACROSS THE NORTHEAST CARIBBEAN FROM TIME TO TIME DURING THE
WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK. THESE FEATURES WILL COMBINE TO
INDUCE A TRANSITION TO A MORE WETTER PATTERN ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA. LATER DURING THE UPCOMING WEEK...AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS
EXPECTED TO AMPLIFY ACROSS THE REGION...MAINTAINING A RELATIVELY
WET WEATHER PATTERN OVER THE FORECAST AREA.

AVIATION...MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL ACROSS
THE LOCAL FLYING AREA FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. HOWEVER...SHOWERS ARE
STILL POSSIBLE ACROSS TJMZ AND TJBQ. WINDS WILL CONTINUE FROM THE
EAST TO EAST SOUTHEAST AT 10 TO 15 MPH.

MARINE...SEAS ACROSS THE REGIONAL WATERS WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY
SUBSIDE DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. A HIGH RISK OF RIP
CURRENTS AND SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WILL REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR THE
NORTHERN BEACHES OF PUERTO RICO UNTIL AT LEAST THIS AFTERNOON.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WILL ALSO CONTINUES IN EFFECT FOR THE
OFFSHORE ATLANTIC WATERS UNTIL THIS EVENING.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU  74  85  74  87 /  10  20  30  30
STT  74  84  74  84 /  20  20  40  40

&&

.SJU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PR...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK THROUGH LATE FRIDAY NIGHT FOR CULEBRA-
     NORTH CENTRAL-NORTHEAST-NORTHWEST-SAN JUAN AND VICINITY-
     SOUTHEAST-WESTERN INTERIOR.

VI...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK UNTIL 5 AM AST FRIDAY FOR ST. THOMAS/ST.
     JOHN/ADJACENT ISLANDS.

AM...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK UNTIL 5 AM AST FRIDAY FOR COASTAL WATERS
     OF SOUTHERN USVI VIEQUES AND EASTERN PUERTO RICO OUT 10 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 2 PM AST SATURDAY FOR ATLC WATERS OF
     PUERTO RICO AND USVI FROM 10NM TO 19.5N.

&&

$$

09/12



USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.