Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS San Juan, PR

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000
FXCA62 TJSJ 250200
AFDSJU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
1000 PM AST WED DEC 24 2014

.UPDATE...FAIRLY QUIET NIGHT ACROSS THE LOCAL ISLANDS WITH THE
EXCEPTION OF A SMALL BAND OF SHOWERS THAT AFFECTED THE NORTHERN
USVI AND NORTHERN PR LATE IN THE EVENING...LEAVING A FEW
HUNDREDTHS OF AN INCH OF RAIN.

ISOLATED PASSING SHOWERS ARE FORECAST FOR THE REST OF THE NIGHT
ACROSS THE LOCAL WATERS...USVI...AND NORTH AND EASTERN PUERTO
RICO...BECOMING SCATTERED LATE TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING AS AN
AREA OF SLIGHTLY HIGHER MOISTURE MOVES INTO THE LOCAL AREA.

NO CHANGES WERE MADE TO THE INHERITED FORECAST AS THE LATEST
GUIDANCE AND OBSERVATIONS ARE IN AGREEMENT WITH THE INHERITED
FORECAST.

&&

.AVIATION...PREVAILING VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR THE NEXT 24
HOURS WITH QUICK PASSING SHRA...ESPECIALLY ACROSS NORTHERN
PR...THE USVI...AND TNCM/TKPK OVERNIGHT AND INTO THURSDAY MORNING.
WINDS WILL BE LIGHT FROM THE E-ENE OVERNIGHT...INCREASING SLIGHTLY
TO ABOUT 15KTS FROM THE E-ENE WITH SEA BREEZE VARIATIONS.


&&

.MARINE...NO CHANGES FROM PREVIOUS DISCUSSION. SMALL CRAFT SHOULD
EXERCISE CAUTION DUE TO WINDS UP TO 20 KNOTS TONIGHT.
NORTHEASTERLY SWELL STILL EXPECTED FOR LATE FRIDAY AND INTO THE
WEEKEND...DETERIORATING THE MARINE AND SURF CONDITIONS.


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 228 PM AST WED DEC 24 2014/

SYNOPSIS...A GENERALLY FAIR AND MAINLY STABLE WEATHER PATTERN WILL
CONTINUE TO PREVAIL ACROSS THE LOCAL ISLANDS DURING THE NEXT SEVERAL
DAYS AS RIDGE ALOFT REMAINS THE DOMINANT WEATHER FEATURE. A WEAK
SURFACE TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL MOVE ACROSS
THE LOCAL ISLANDS LATE THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY MORNING. REMNANTS OF
AN OLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL REACH THE FORECAST AREA SUNDAY MORNING.

DISCUSSION...SUNNY SKIES PREVAILED ACROSS THE LOCAL ISLANDS THROUGH
THE DAY...WITH A FEW SPRINKLES NOTED OVER THE CARIBBEAN WATERS SOUTH
OF SAINT CROIX. WINDS WERE FROM THE EAST AT 15 TO 20 MPH...WITH COASTAL
TEMPERATURES IN THE MID 80S.

A FAIR AND STABLE WEATHER PATTERN WILL CONTINUE TO PREVAIL ACROSS THE
LOCAL ISLANDS THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING UNDER BELOW NORMAL PRECIPITABLE
WATER...RIDGE ALOFT AND ASSOCIATED SUBSIDENCE. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IS
EXPECTED TO INCREASE SOMEWHAT LATE THURSDAY MORNING INTO FRIDAY AS A
WEAK SURFACE TROUGH MOVES ACROSS THE LOCAL ISLANDS. THIS WILL RESULT
IN PASSING SHOWERS ACROSS WINDWARD AREAS IN THE MORNING HOURS...WITH
SOME PM SHOWERS DEVELOPING OVER AND WEST OF THE CORDILLERA CENTRAL
BOTH DAYS. HOWEVER...SUBSIDENCE ALOFT SHOULD LIMIT INTENSITY AND AREAL
COVERAGE.

AS THE WEAK SURFACE TROUGH MOVES AWAY LATE FRIDAY...A SHARP DECREASE
IN LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IS THEN EXPECTED. THE CHANCE OF PASSING SHOWERS
WILL INCREASE ONCE AGAIN SUNDAY ASSOCIATED WITH AN APPROACHING FRONTAL
BOUNDARY. AFTER THE FRONTAL PASSAGE...A DRIER AIR MASS WILL MOVE
IN FROM THE NORTHEAST ON MONDAY.

AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED NEXT 24 HOURS. QUICK PASSING
-SHRA IN THE VICINITY OF TISX AND TKPK POSSIBLE. LOW LEVEL WINDS
WILL CONTINUE FROM THE EAST-NORTHEAST AT 10-20 KT.

MARINE...MODERATE TO FRESH TRADE WINDS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH AT
LEAST EARLY NEXT WEEK. NORTHEAST SWELLS WILL REACH OUR ATLANTIC
WATERS LATE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY. SWELLS ARE EXPECTED TO
PEAK SUNDAY AFTERNOON INTO EARLY MONDAY MORNING AND SLOWLY
SUBSIDING TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. SURF CONDITIONS...RIP CURRENTS
AND LARGE BREAKING WAVES LIKELY ALONG THE ATLANTIC COASTLINES OF
LOCAL ISLANDS. MARINERS AND BEACH GOERS STAY TUNED ABOUT THE
EVOLUTION OF THIS EVENT.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU  72  83  71  84 /  30  30  30  20
STT  74  85  76  85 /  30  30  30  20

&&

.SJU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PR...NONE.
VI...NONE.
COASTAL WATERS...NONE.
&&

$$

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