Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Salt Lake City, UT

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FXUS65 KSLC 221615
AFDSLC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SALT LAKE CITY UT
1015 AM MDT TUE JUL 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...A DRY SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL REMAIN OVER THE AREA TODAY.
MOISTURE WILL INCREASE FROM THE SOUTH TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...AND
COULD LINGER ACROSS MAINLY SOUTHERN AND EASTERN UTAH THROUGH THE
END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...THE FORECAST AREA REMAINS UNDER SOUTHERLY FLOW ALOFT
THIS MORNING ON THE BACK SIDE OF A RIDGE PRESENTLY CENTERED OVER
COLORADO. AIRMASS IS CURRENTLY QUITE DRY OVER MUCH OF THE AREA
WITH WIDESPREAD PWS OF 0.4 INCH OR LESS. THE ONLY EXCEPTION IS
NORTHWEST UTAH WHERE PWS ARE IN THE 0.6 TO 0.7 INCH RANGE.
HOWEVER...DRIER PWS WILL CONTINUE NORTHWARD TODAY...LIMITING
CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT THIS AFTERNOON. MAXES ARE EXPECTED TO BE A
BIT ON THE WARM SIDE THIS AFTERNOON...A COUPLE OF DEGREES ABOVE
CLIMO OVER SOUTHERN UTAH AND UP TO 5F ABOVE THOSE VALUES OVER
NORTHERN UTAH. GUSTY SOUTHERLY WINDS IN SOME LOCATIONS WILL CREATE
CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS WHEN COMBINED WITH DRY FUELS.

AS THE DRIER AIR OVER THE STATE CONTINUES TO SHIFT NORTHWARD THIS
EVENING...A MORE MOIST AIRMASS WILL MOVE INTO SOUTHERN UTAH. BY
TOMORROW...PWS IN EXCESS OF 1.0 INCH WILL BE COMMON OVER THE
SOUTHEASTERN HALF OF UTAH WHILE NORTHERN UTAH REMAINS ON THE DRY
SIDE. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR SOME ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...WITH SOME POSSIBILITY OF DRY
MICROBURSTS...PARTICULARLY NEAR THE MOISTURE GRADIENT.

BY THURSDAY...A TROUGH MOVING NORTH OF THE AREA WILL WEAKEN THE
RIDGE AND RESULT IN A MORE WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT. THIS WILL RESULT
IN A MORE NORTH TO SOUTH MOISTURE GRADIENT...WITH NORTHERN UTAH
REMAINING DRY AND MOISTURE LINGERING OVER SOUTHERN UTAH. THIS
SYSTEM IS ALSO EXPECTED TO MOVE A DRY FRONT INTO THE
NORTH...BRINGING MAXES BACK TO NEAR SEASONAL NORMALS FOR THURSDAY
AND FRIDAY.

NO UPDATES EXPECTED TO THE FORECAST THIS MORNING.

&&

.AVIATION...THE SLC TERMINAL WILL SEE VFR CONDITIONS THROUGHOUT
THE DAY WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES. LIGHT SOUTHEAST WINDS ARE
EXPECTED TO SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST BETWEEN 19Z AND 21Z.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL DEVELOP ACROSS
MOST OF WESTERN UTAH THIS AFTERNOON DUE TO LOW HUMIDITY AND GUSTY
SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS. PORTIONS OF NORTHERN UTAH HAVE WINDS FROM THE
NORTHWEST THIS MORNING DUE TO A SHALLOW...WEAK FRONT THAT MOVED INTO
NORTHERN UTAH YESTERDAY EVENING. HOWEVER...BY EARLY
AFTERNOON...WINDS ACROSS MOST LOCATIONS OF THE WESTERN TWO THIRDS OF
THE STATE WILL BE FROM THE SOUTHWEST. SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL
BECOME GUSTY THIS AFTERNOON.

MOISTURE WILL INCREASE FROM THE SOUTH LATE TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW.
AS A RESULT...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP OVER THE HIGHER
TERRAIN TOMORROW AFTERNOON WITH THE GREATEST COVERAGE ACROSS
SOUTHERN AND SOUTHEAST UTAH WHERE THE MOISTURE IS THE DEEPEST. THE
GREATEST CHANCE FOR WETTING RAIN IS ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN UTAH. ACROSS
CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST UTAH...MOISTURE WILL REMAIN CONFINED TO THE
MID AND UPPER LEVELS...AND THERE IS CONCERN THAT THERE IS A THREAT
FOR ISOLATED DRY THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE AREA. THE OTHER CONCERN
FOR TOMORROW IS THAT CRITICAL WINDS WILL SURFACE IN THE AFTERNOON
ACROSS THE NORTHWEST CORNER OF UTAH.

A SHALLOW FRONT WILL MOVE INTO NORTHWEST UTAH THURSDAY
MORNING...ADVANCING INTO CENTRAL UTAH BY EVENING. THIS IS A WEAK
FRONT...AND THE MAIN IMPACT WILL BE A SHIFT OF SURFACE WINDS TO THE
NORTH WITH THE FRONT. AGAIN...CRITICAL WINDS MAY SURFACE ACROSS
NORTHERN UTAH FRIDAY.

CONFIDENCE IS LOW AT THIS TIME WHETHER WINDS WILL BE STRONG ENOUGH
ACROSS NORTHERN UTAH THURSDAY AND FRIDAY TO WARRANT ANY HIGHLIGHTS.
WHILE CONFIDENCE IS FAIRLY HIGH THAT CONVECTION WILL DEVELOP
TOMORROW AFTERNOON...THERE IS LOW CONFIDENCE IN HOW WIDESPREAD DRY
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE ACROSS CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST UTAH.


&&

.SLC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UT...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 10 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR UTZ478-492-495.

WY...NONE.
&&

$$

PUBLIC/AVIATION...TRAPHAGAN
FIRE WEATHER...HOSENFELD

FOR MORE INFORMATION FROM NOAA/S NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/SALTLAKECITY (ALL LOWER CASE)

FOR FREQUENTLY ASKED QUESTIONS ABOUT THE AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/SALTLAKECITY/GENERAL/AFD_FAQS.PHP (ALL LOWER CASE)



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