Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Sacramento, CA
FXUS66 KSTO 270421
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Sacramento CA
921 PM PDT THU MAY 26 2016
Afternoon showers and isolated thunderstorms across Northern
California through early next week. Warm weather will continue
through the holiday weekend, with breezy north winds Fri and Sat.
Northerly dry flow on Friday will help to warm temperatures up
into the upper 80s to around 90 in the valley with mainly 60s for
the mountains. Winds may become breezy from mid to late morning
through mid afternoon between 10 to 20 mph with the strongest
gusts between 20 and 25 mph.
Saturday a weak trough moves through the Pacific Northwest. Just
north of I-80 and places south along the Sierra Nevada may get
some showers or thunderstorms that pop up in the afternoon from
near the crest on the western slopes and east of the crest.
Temperatures will continue to be warm around 90 for the valley and
in the 60s to mid 70s for the mountains. Breezy northerly winds
may occur from late morning through mid afernoon in the valley.
On Sunday warm temperatures will continue with highs mainly in
the lower 90s with a few of the warmer spots warming into the mid
90s for the valley. The mountains will be mostly in the 70s. The
models indicate some afternoon showers and thunderstorms once
again along the crest. The NAM indicates some activity moving
north in Plumas County while the GFS keeps any activity closer to
I-80. Weak northerly winds early in the valley should shift
direction in the afternoon and become up valley.
.EXTENDED DISCUSSION (Monday THROUGH Thursday)
The main highlight in the long term forecast continues to be the
building upper level high pressure system over the west. Model
forecasts are in good agreement with warming temperatures next
week, so confidence is increasing in widespread highs in the mid
to upper 90s for Monday and Tuesday in the valley and the 60s and
70s for the foothills and higher elevations. These forecasted
temperatures would reach between 10 and 15 degrees above normal
for this time of year. Low temperatures will also be on the warm
side of normal (5-10 degrees above) in the 60s for the valley and
the 50s for the Sierra.
A cooler air mass will move into the eastern Pacific from the north,
which will bring slightly cooler temperatures to interior northern
California as it approaches for Wednesday and Thursday. However,
high temperatures will still be above normal by 5-10 degrees in the
valley in the upper 80s to lower 90s. Higher elevations will see
upper 50s and 60s.
No significant precipitation is expected for the forecast area
during from Monday through Thursday.
VFR conditions are expected at the terminals for the next 24
hours. A few afternoon and evening showers south of highway 88
along the Sierra crest tomorrow. Northerly mid morning to mid
afternoon gusts 20 to 25kts are possible Friday.