Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Sacramento, CA

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FXUS66 KSTO 062053
AFDSTO

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Sacramento CA
153 PM PDT FRI MAY 6 2016

.SHORT TERM DISCUSSION...

.Synopsis...
Another day of showers Saturday then a drying trend with only a
slight chance of showers Sunday. Temperatures warming into 90s
next week.

.Short Term Discussion...
Clouds keeping instability down today and not nearly as much
convection going today as yesterday. Biggest challenge is trying
to figure out timing of the next wave of moisture. Both the
GFS/NAM in pretty good agreement that this wave will rotate down
into Sacramento area tonight after midnight. HRRR however
suggesting it will come sooner, either way, should be another
round of rain pushing across tonight and probably into Saturday
morning. After the morning rain, instability not nearly as high
Saturday afternoon, but enough around that there should be a few
showers.

Sunday...overall the energy from this weather system is shifting
away from the area. Have kept a slight chance of showers in the
valley and slightly higher in higher terrain, but overall a drier
and warmer day. This drying and warming trend continues into
Monday. Rasch


.EXTENDED DISCUSSION (Tuesday THROUGH Friday)

Warmer and dry pattern ahead for Northern California.
A weak system is projected to clip the area on Tuesday, but this
will bring only light showers to portions of the Sierra and
southern Cascades. Upper ridge moves in late Tuesday and persists
through extended period. High temperatures under ridge will be in the
mid to upper 80s with some locations in the northern portions of
Valley like Redding and Red Bluff reaching low 90s.

Just beyond the extended period, models hint at ridge breaking
down with trough moving in during the weekend. Models disagree
this far in advance with how far south the trough digs and how
quickly it moves through, which isn`t surprising. Either way, it
could mean another chance of precip in the long term.

Owen
&&

.AVIATION...

Upr low ovr SoCal with Ely flow alf ovr fcst area bcmg NEly tngt and
Sat as low movs into Grt Basin. VFR conds ovr Intr NorCal nxt 24
hrs exc lcl MVFR poss in shwrs or tstms...mnly ovr fthls/mtns.
SFC wnds genly blo 15 kts thru Sat exc gsty nr tstms.



&&

.STO Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
None.
&&

$$


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