Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Sacramento, CA
FXUS66 KSTO 160428
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SACRAMENTO CA
928 PM PDT Mon Sep 15 2014
Temperatures cooling to below normal by Thursday. Breezy south to
southwest winds afternoons and evenings through Wednesday. Chance of
showers for the Coastal Range Wednesday afternoon, with a slight
chance across the remainder of the interior by Thursday. Some
mountain thunderstorms will be possible Thursday afternoon.
Temperatures are much cooler this evening in the Sacramento area
this evening currently trending 5 to 10 degrees cooler than last
night. Moderate winds are expected to continue through the delta
overnight. In the mountains the winds have settled down and will
be shifting downslope. Smoke from the Kings wildfire will be
moving toward the foothills overnight...mainly from El Dorado
county northward into Nevada County.
Low pressure area off the coast will keep winds breezy through the
delta and breezy from the south to southwest in the mountains the
next two days...Windy over the crest. Humidities will remain low
during the daytime and combined with the winds low RH and dry
fuels conditions will not be good during the afternoons for
fighting the wildfires.
The low will move onto the coast late Wednesday to bring a chance
of showers to the coastal range. The low will then move over the
interior on Thursday and winds will be decreasing while humidities
should be increasing. Slight chances of showers will develop over
the remainder of the interior Wednesday night and Thursday.
Unfortunately the models are not indicating any precipitation over
the Kings wildfire area at this time. Temperatures will continue
to cool each day through Thursday.
.Extended Discussion (Friday through Monday)
Medium range models continue to have difficulty with handling
trapped upper low. 12z ECMWF-HiRes has come more inline with the
Oper GFS in keeping the low farther south and building stronger
ridging over the weekend into Monday. So will follow these
solutions for now with understanding progs do poorly with trapped
lows. Thus expect dry weather Friday through Monday for Interior
NorCal with above normal temperatures. Highs expected mostly in
the 90s for the Central Valley with 70s to around 90 for the
mountains and foothills.
SWly flow alf as upr trof lifts NE alg W Cst. VFR conds ovr Intr
NorCal nxt 24 hrs. Lcl SWly sfc wnd gsts to 30 kts poss ovr hyr
mtn trrn aftns into eves and in the Delta tngt into Tue mrng.