Area Forecast Discussion
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FXUS62 KTAE 261723
AFDTAE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tallahassee FL
123 PM EDT Fri May 26 2017

.AVIATION [Through 18Z Saturday]...

VFR conditions through the period at all terminals with south to
southwesterly winds generally below 10 knots.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION [950 AM EDT]...

.NEAR TERM [Through Today]...

The 1 am surface analysis showed a broad area of high pressure
across the Southeast, along with a rather cool, dry airmass for this
time of year. With subsidence aloft and an exceptionally dry airmass
in place, clouds will be hard to come by. Although high temperatures
will return to average (upper 80s), the dry air will actually keep
the apparent temperature a few degrees cooler.


.SHORT TERM [Tonight Through Sunday]...

Quasi-zonal flow aloft tonight through Saturday will give way to
an upper level ridge on Sunday, with the core of the jet remaining
well to our north across the Ohio River Valley region throughout
this period. With light upper level flow and a broad area of high
pressure persisting in our area at the surface, no discernible
forcing will be present throughout this period. Light southwesterly
flow will gradually increase moisture/PWAT values closer to average
during the weekend after a very dry end to this week, but combined
with the lack of forcing it will likely be dry enough to preclude
any chances of rain. However, cloud cover is expected to gradually increase
during this period as mid-upper levels become more saturated.
Seasonably hot conditions are expected this weekend with highs in
the lower 90s inland and mid-upper 80s near the coast. Inland lows
in the upper 50s to lower 60s are expected Saturday morning under
ideal radiational cooling conditions, but increasing cloud cover
should result in warmer Sunday morning lows (mainly upper 60s to
lower 70s).


.LONG TERM [Sunday Night Through Friday]...

Another upper trough is expected to move across the eastern CONUS
during the early-middle parts of next week, but should not be
nearly as amplified as the trough to move through our area this
week. As a result, the surface low under this feature will remain
in eastern Canada, although a front well to its south and east
will stretch across the southeastern US for much of this period.
This front is expected to stall across northern portions of our
area from Monday through Thursday, enhancing chances of showers
and thunderstorms across our area. A few strong to severe storms
may be possible near and south of the front as ample instability
will be present (SBCAPE above 2000 J/kg at times) and effective
bulk shear could increase to 25-35 kts. This would support
multicellular development, and with the aforementioned parameters
isolated damaging wind gusts and/or hail could be possible with
clusters of thunderstorms.

Any chances of strong/severe storms are expected to diminish from
Wednesday through late week as an upper level ridge builds and
bulk shear decreases, though with the stalled front and ample
moisture/instability in our area scattered showers and
thunderstorms remain possible especially during peak heating hours
(afternoon and early evening). Seasonably warm/hot conditions are
expected to persist each day with highs ranging from the upper 80s
to lower 90s. Lows will range from the upper 60s to lower 70s.


.MARINE...

Light to moderate winds and seas will prevail throughout the next
several days with wind speeds ranging from 5 to 15 knots and seas
from 1 to 3 feet. Southerly winds today will become southwesterly
tonight through the weekend and westerly next week.


.FIRE WEATHER...

No concerns.


.HYDROLOGY...

Scattered showers and thunderstorms will be possible starting
Monday and persisting each day next week as a front stalls across
our area, with brief periods of heavy rain possible in any storms
that develop. However, widespread heavy rainfall is not expected
and no flooding is anticipated at this time.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...

Tallahassee   59  91  66  91  68 /   0   0  10   0  10
Panama City   70  83  74  84  75 /   0   0  10   0  10
Dothan        63  91  72  90  73 /   0   0  10   0  20
Albany        62  91  70  91  73 /   0   0  10   0  20
Valdosta      61  92  68  92  71 /   0   0   0   0  10
Cross City    61  89  68  90  72 /   0   0   0   0  10
Apalachicola  69  86  73  86  75 /   0   0  10   0  10

&&

.TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

FL...None.
GA...None.
AL...None.
GM...None.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...Pullin
SHORT TERM...Fournier
LONG TERM...Lahr
AVIATION...Pullin
MARINE...Fournier
FIRE WEATHER...Lahr
HYDROLOGY...Fournier



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