Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS
FXUS62 KTAE 300124
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
824 PM EST SUN NOV 29 2015
.Near Term [Through Tonight]...
An increase in low level moisture along with slightly warmer
overnight temperatures will result in a better chance for fog
development. Current guidance suggests the best chance will
generally be across the Florida panhandle and our SE Alabama
zones. Otherwise, skies will be mostly clear to partly cloudy
with lows in the mid to upper 50s inland and around 60 along the
[Through 00Z Monday]...Unlimited Vis and unrestricted cigs will
continue through most of the overnight period. The consensus of
the latest NWP guidance shows there will be enough boundary layer
moisture for fog development along or west of a line from KABY to
KECP. We expect a period of IFR Vis at KECP and KDHN between 09z
and 14z, and MVFR Vis at KABY during this time. Elsewhere,
significant Vis restrictions appear less likely. Surface winds
will be light and rather variable through Monday.
.Prev Discussion [324 PM EST]...
.Short Term [Monday Through Tuesday Night]...
Warm and dry weather will continue through Tuesday as an upper
ridge maintains control over the region`s weather. Expect to see
highs in the upper 70s both Monday and Tuesday afternoons. Min
temps will warm from the upper 50s on Monday night to the lower
to mid 60s Tuesday night ahead of an approaching cold front.
The aforementioned front will begin to impact the weather by late
Tuesday night with a few showers possible before sunrise on
.Long Term [Wednesday Through Sunday]...
Upper trough will slide east by Wednesday and help to push a cold
front through the forecast area. The trough is forecast to have a
pronounced positive tilt, with limited forcing expected. However,
should see scattered showers develop on Wednesday across much of
Guidance continues to diverge significantly with the upper
pattern (and sensible weather) beyond Wednesday. GFS digs a more
significant piece of energy towards the Texas coast, which
generates a large shield of overrunning precip across the
northern Gulf Coast by Thursday and continuing into Friday. The
Euro continues with its more progressive solution and clears the
precip from the area by midday on Thursday. Will continue to use
a compromise between the two for now with chance PoPs through
late Thursday, ending from east to west on Friday.
Light winds and minimal seas will continue through Tuesday.
Following a frontal passage on Wednesday, offshore flow will
increase through the end of the workweek, likely reaching at
least exercise caution levels.
Hazardous fire weather conditions are not expected over the next
Dry weather will continue for the next few days. Rain will move
into the region on Wednesday and Thursday. Estimated rain totals
for the next seven days are less than one inch. Most local rivers
are at normal levels. Therefore, the rainfall is not expected to
impact local rivers.
.Preliminary Point Temps/PoPs...
Tallahassee 55 79 59 79 65 / 0 0 10 10 20
Panama City 59 74 61 75 65 / 0 0 10 10 20
Dothan 56 77 58 77 61 / 0 0 0 10 20
Albany 54 77 58 78 62 / 0 0 10 10 20
Valdosta 54 78 59 79 64 / 0 0 0 10 10
Cross City 57 80 60 80 64 / 0 0 0 10 10
Apalachicola 60 73 62 75 66 / 0 0 10 10 20