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003
FXUS62 KTAE 131725
AFDTAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
1225 PM EST SAT FEB 13 2016

.Aviation...

[Through 18Z Sunday] VFR conditions will prevail with clear skies
through the period. Gusty north winds will diminish this evening
becoming light from the northeast overnight. Winds will increase
slightly on Sunday as they gradually veer to the east.

&&

.Prev Discussion [1025 AM EST]...

.Near Term [Through Today]...

The 15z surface analysis shows that the cold front has pushed
southward into south Florida. A cooler and much drier air mass is
filtering in on breezy northerly winds. The cold air advection
will be offset somewhat by full insolation so we expect high
temperatures to be in the lower 50s around Albany and Dothan, and
mid to upper 50s elsewhere.


.Short Term [Tonight Through Monday]...
High pressure will build over the Central Appalachians tonight
with a cool and dry airmass in place. With the ridge center so far
to the north, winds are unlikely to go calm for most of the night,
except perhaps across our far northern counties. As a result, the
likelihood of freezing temperatures decreases considerably further
to the south across North Florida, with areas along and north of
I-10 standing the best chance of temperatures dropping to 32 or
colder for 2 or more hours.

The warm up will begin on Sunday as high pressure moves out into
the Western Atlantic and the low level flow picks up more of a
southerly component. Increasing cloudiness will keep temperatures
from warming much out of the lower 60s.

By Monday, a storm system will be approaching the region from the
west. Expect afternoon highs to warm into the upper 60s to near
70. Rain chances will begin to increase across our western areas
after 18z, but the bulk of the rain should hold off until after
00z Tuesday.


.Long Term [Monday Night Through Saturday]...
The models have had a tough time today maintaining consistency
with previous cycles. Three days ago, the Euro suggested Monday
night`s system would be significantly less energetic than the GFS
solution. In the last couple of cycles the Euro moved toward this
stronger GFS solution. Then with the 13/00z set this morning, all
of the guidance has trended weaker with this system - the GFS
considerably so. As a result, this decreases confidence in the
forecast and further decreases the likelihood of a severe weather
risk with this system across our forecast area. It still looks
reasonably certain that most of the area will get rain Monday
night, so will keep PoPs in the 70 percent range over the forecast
area.

The system should clear out quickly Tuesday morning with a dry
stretch of weather likely to continue through the remainder of the
period. A quick influx of drier and slightly cooler may arrive on
Thursday, but by Friday, ridging will be building across the Gulf
of Mexico, resulting in high temperatures Friday and Saturday
warming into the mid to upper 70s.


.Marine...

Advisory level winds this morning over the offshore waters will
decrease this afternoon. However, mariners of small craft should
exercise caution until seas subside. Moderate easterly flow is
expected through the remainder of the weekend. Winds and seas will
increase on Monday ahead of an approaching storm system. A period
of advisory conditions is possible Monday evening through Tuesday
morning. Thereafter, light winds are expected as high pressure
builds over the northern Gulf.


.Fire Weather...
RH values will be below local critical thresholds for much of this
afternoon. However, ERC/fuel moisture values will likely remain
above critical levels, and 20 ft winds are likely to remain just
below 15 MPH. Thus we are not issuing a Red Flag Warning. A modest
increase in boundary layer moisture on Sunday will help keep RH
values a little above critical thresholds at most sites.


.Hydrology...
The entire Choctawhatchee River is now below flood stage and
other area rivers outside the Suwannee River system are continuing
to drop. Releases from Lake Seminole continue to decrease and will
drop below 40 kcfs later today. As a result, the Apalachicola
River at Blountstown should drop below flood stage by Sunday
evening.

Rises will continue on the Suwannee into the latter part of next
week. Peak discharge from the Withlacoochee is now past Ellaville,
and peak flow from the Alapaha should arrive in the next 48 hours.
Downstream peak flow should stay in the 16-20 kcfs range,
suggesting that only the US-19 crossing near Fanning Springs will
reach action stage around 2/18.

&&

.Preliminary Point Temps/PoPs...

Tallahassee   32  61  44  70  50 /   0   0   0  20  80
Panama City   36  58  49  66  52 /   0   0   0  60  80
Dothan        29  57  42  65  47 /   0   0  10  60  80
Albany        29  57  42  66  47 /   0   0   0  30  80
Valdosta      32  61  44  72  51 /   0   0   0  20  70
Cross City    33  65  47  73  56 /   0   0   0  10  70
Apalachicola  37  58  50  66  53 /   0   0  10  20  80

&&

.TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...Freeze Watch from late tonight through Sunday morning FOR
     Calhoun-Central Walton-Gadsden-Holmes-Inland Jefferson-
     Inland Wakulla-Jackson-Leon-Liberty-Madison-North Walton-
     Washington.

GA...Freeze Watch from late tonight through Sunday morning FOR Brooks-
     Decatur-Grady-Lanier-Lowndes-Seminole-Thomas.

     Freeze Watch from late tonight through Sunday morning FOR Baker-
     Ben Hill-Berrien-Calhoun-Clay-Colquitt-Cook-Dougherty-Early-
     Irwin-Lee-Miller-Mitchell-Quitman-Randolph-Terrell-Tift-
     Turner-Worth.

AL...Freeze Watch from late tonight through Sunday morning FOR Coffee-
     Dale-Geneva-Henry-Houston.

GM...Small Craft Advisory until 1 PM EST this afternoon FOR Waters
     from Suwannee River to Apalachicola FL from 20 to 60 NM-
     Waters from Apalachicola to Destin FL from 20 to 60 NM.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...BARRY
SHORT TERM...GODSEY
LONG TERM...GODSEY
AVIATION...BARRY
MARINE...GODSEY
FIRE WEATHER...FOURNIER
HYDROLOGY...GODSEY



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