Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS

Home | Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | Print | Product List | Glossary On
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50
844
FXUS62 KTAE 241039
AFDTAE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tallahassee FL
639 AM EDT TUE MAY 24 2016

.AVIATION [Through 12Z Wednesday]...

VFR ceilings and light winds will continue through the period.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION [331 AM EDT]...

.NEAR TERM [Through Today]...

As the stacked low continues to move up the Eastern seaboard, upper
level flow over the southeast will become more zonal. With a very
weak pressure gradient at the surface, it will be a fairly quiet
day. Expect sunny skies and highs near 90 inland.


.SHORT TERM [Tonight Through Thursday]...

A deep-layer ridge will be the dominant weather feature over much of
the Southeast, with weak subsidence aloft persisting. A slight
uptick in deep layer moisture the next few days may allow an
isolated afternoon or evening thunderstorm to develop along the
sea breeze fronts, but our PoPs remain at less than 20%.
Temperatures will be near average with lows in the mid 60s and
highs around 90.


.LONG TERM [Thursday Night Through Tuesday]...

While we don`t expect any major synoptic scale systems to
directly impact our forecast area, there will be a gradual
increase in deep layer moisture. This will be especially true
across the eastern half of our area, as a weak low pressure system
moves ashore the Southeast coast this weekend. Despite the
apparent lack of large scale forcing, the sea breeze circulation,
coupled with the improved thermodynamics, should result in
scattered afternoon and evening thunderstorms this weekend and
early next week, especially east of Tallahassee and Albany. (PoPs
will range from 20% west to 40% east). Seasonably warm
temperatures will continue.


.MARINE...

The marine winds will be diurnally driven, with light to moderate E-
SE winds developing overnight, and light onshore winds near the
coast in the afternoon and evening hours. This pattern will continue
through Thursday.


.FIRE WEATHER...

Relative humidity will briefly drop below 30% this afternoon in some
places. The combination of light winds and low ERC values will
keep conditions from reaching red flag criteria.


.HYDROLOGY...

Area rivers will remain below action stage.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...

Tallahassee   90  66  90  66  89 /   0  10  10  10  10
Panama City   83  69  82  70  82 /   0  10  10  10  10
Dothan        89  64  89  66  89 /   0  10  10  10  10
Albany        89  64  90  66  89 /   0  10  10  10  10
Valdosta      90  64  89  64  89 /   0  10  10  10  10
Cross City    90  64  90  63  89 /  10  10  10  10  10
Apalachicola  82  69  82  69  82 /   0  10  10  10  10

&&

.TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

FL...None.
GA...None.
AL...None.
GM...None.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...Weston
SHORT TERM...Fournier
LONG TERM...Fournier
AVIATION...Weston
MARINE...Fournier
FIRE WEATHER...Weston
HYDROLOGY...Fournier



USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.