Area Forecast Discussion
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FXUS62 KTAE 300750
AFDTAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
350 AM EDT THU JUL 30 2015

.Near Term [Through Today]...
A very moist airmass will remain in place across the area today
with PWAT values over 2 inches. It appears as though we will have
a bit more cloud cover compared to yesterday morning, and this may
act to keep temperatures a few degrees cooler compared to
yesterday. This yields mainly mid 90s across the area instead of
upper 90s to near 100. Dewpoints will still be oppressive in the
mid 70s, and afternoon heat index values in most places are
expected to be in the 105 to 108 degree range. This is just short
of the local heat advisory criteria of 109 or higher. If it
weren`t for the morning cloud cover, we would probably have
another heat advisory today. Trends will have to be monitored
closely this morning since if the cloud cover is less than
expected, readings will be higher than currently forecast.

As far as convection goes today, the latest ensemble of hi-res
models places the greatest coverage today across the Florida
zones and adjacent sections of southern Georgia, with scattered
coverage across southeast Alabama and the remainder of southwest
Georgia. The greater coverage to the south is likely due to
convergence between the afternoon sea breeze and light northerly
flow on the large scale. The official forecast followed this
thinking for this afternoon. The environment does not appear to be
that different from yesterday, so a few strong to locally severe
storms are possible across the area again this afternoon.

.Short Term [Tonight Through Saturday]...
East-west oriented mid-level ridge axis will remain just north of
the forecast area on Friday, with the surface trough stretching
across the Florida Panhandle into southern Georgia. Deep layer
moisture will remain plentiful across the region, with scattered
to numerous showers and thunderstorms expected to develop during
the afternoon and evening hours. Best rain chances will be along
and south of the surface trough (far southern Georgia into the
Florida Big Bend). A few severe storms cannot be ruled out, with
mid-level northwesterly flow still around 20 knots.

By Saturday, the mid-level ridge axis will shift slightly south.
However, the surface trough will remain generally stationary.
The southward shift of the ridge axis should help to reduce
coverage for the northwestern third of the area. However, the
remainder of the region will see another active afternoon of
convection.

.Long Term [Saturday Night Through Thursday]...
Late in the weekend into early next week, the upper ridge will
weaken as a trough deepens over the eastern half of the country.
At the surface, the weak trough of low pressure is expected to
remain relatively stationary along the northern Gulf Coast. Best
rain chances into next week will be along and south of the
surface trough, with slightly drier air filtering in north of the
boundary.

&&

.Aviation...
[Through 06Z Friday] Scattered to numerous TSRA are expected this
afternoon across the area, some of which will likely contain gusty
winds. The highest coverage is expected to be near KTLH and KECP
with slightly lower coverage around KDHN and KABY this afternoon.
Outside of convection, VFR conditions are expected.

&&

.Marine...
A lingering trough of low pressure along the northeastern Gulf
Coast will keep light southwesterly to westerly winds in place
over the coastal waters through the weekend. Scattered to numerous
showers and thunderstorms each day will generate locally higher
winds and seas.

&&

.Fire Weather...
Red flag conditions will not occur for the next several days.

&&

.Hydrology...
Rain chances will remain elevated through the rest of the week
with 5 day estimated rain totals around 3-4" along the coast,
especially in the southeastern Big Bend. Elsewhere, 1.5-2.5" is
likely. Area rivers are still below action stage. With the
heaviest rainfall expected near the coast, river flooding is not
expected. However, localized flooding will be possible with the
heavier storms.

&&

.Preliminary Point Temps/PoPs...

Tallahassee   95  76  90  75  91 /  70  30  60  40  60
Panama City   88  79  87  78  87 /  60  40  60  40  50
Dothan        96  76  92  74  91 /  50  40  50  40  50
Albany        95  76  91  74  91 /  50  30  50  40  50
Valdosta      93  75  90  74  90 /  70  30  60  40  60
Cross City    92  75  88  75  88 /  70  30  60  40  60
Apalachicola  91  78  88  78  88 /  50  40  60  40  40

&&

.TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GA...NONE.
AL...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

NEAR TERM...DVD
SHORT TERM...CAMP
LONG TERM...CAMP
AVIATION...DVD
MARINE...CAMP
FIRE WEATHER...DVD
HYDROLOGY...CAMP/MOORE


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