Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS
FXUS62 KTAE 251433
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
933 AM EST Thu Dec 25 2014
.Near Term [Through Today]...
Yesterday`s cold front is long gone and has in fact cleared the
entire FL Peninsula. At 12Z, it was analyzed crossing western Cuba
and the northern Bahamas. High pressure has built into the region in
its wake. Post-frontal clouds have cleared across the northwestern
2/3 of the forecast area and should finally move southeast of the
Lower Suwannee River by 18-19Z. Enjoy this Christmas sunshine while
you can as an unsettled weather pattern is setting up by this
weekend. The temperature forecast looks on track. Max temps this
afternoon will be within a couple degrees either side of 60s for
most areas with mid 60s south and east of Perry.
[Through 12Z Friday] VFR conditions will prevail throughout the TAF
period. Winds will be light north to northwest winds.
Winds and seas have dropped below advisory criteria, so we have
cancelled the SCA and will replace it with an exercise caution
headline. As a ridge of high pressure gradually builds north of
the area, winds and seas will continue to gradually decrease. A
period of light to moderate easterly winds are expected from
tonight through Saturday with winds veering to onshore after that.
A cold front will settle into the waters on Tuesday.
Recent heavy rainfall has resulted in sharp rises along many of our
area rivers. Minor to moderate flooding is forecast for points along
the Choctawhatchee, Ochlockonee, Sopchoppy, Withlacoochee, and
Apalachicola Rivers as well as in the Kinchafoonee Creek. Most
points are still rising, although a few points have already crested
or will crest today. Our next round of rain will start this weekend
and we may see an additional 1-2" of rain from it, which will keep
river levels high.
For the most up to date information, please visit the following
.Prev Discussion [320 AM EST]...
.Short Term [Tonight Through Saturday]...
A mostly clear and chilly night is expected across the region as
a continental ridge of high pressure builds in over the CWA. A
widespread freeze is not expected, however, with overnight lows
generally ranging from the lower to middle 30s north to the middle
to upper 30s to the south. This ridge of high pressure will move
offshore quickly on Friday, with increasing cloudiness from SW to
NE by late in the day. Nevertheless, a moderating trend in high
temps can be expected, with highs in the lower to middle 60s to
the north and west, and middle to upper 60s to the south and east.
Although temperatures will continue to warm on Friday night and
Saturday, the cost of this warming will be increasing chances for
rain once again. These chances will be slight on Friday night
(mainly in the 20s), but will range from 20% over the far SE FL
Big Bend, to 60% across much of SE AL, as a warm frontal boundary
begins to develop just to the north of the Gulf of Mexico.
.Long Term [Saturday Night Through Thursday]...
With either upper level ridging or zonal flow expected to
dominate over the SE US throughout much of the extended period, a
prolonged stretch of above climo temps and PoPs can be anticipated
across our region through much of next week. With highs expected
to average in the upper 60s to the middle 70s and lows only
falling into the lower to middle 50s, this scenario would place
most of our region a solid 10 degrees above normal on average,
which is very impressive considering the length of time of the
long term fcst. Although no major storm systems are expected at
this time, rain chances are expected to be higher than average as
well. However, nothing like the flooding rains of the past few
days is even considered to be a remote possibility.
Recent heavy rainfall and another round of rain over the weekend
will keep red flag conditions away for the next week.
.Preliminary Point Temps/PoPs...
Tallahassee 62 36 66 50 71 / 0 0 0 20 30
Panama City 60 42 63 55 68 / 0 0 10 20 40
Dothan 59 36 61 49 63 / 0 0 10 20 60
Albany 61 34 63 44 66 / 0 0 0 20 40
Valdosta 62 36 66 47 71 / 0 0 0 10 30
Cross City 65 36 69 51 76 / 0 0 0 10 20
Apalachicola 60 44 62 55 66 / 0 0 0 20 30
FL...RIP CURRENT RISK through late tonight for Coastal Bay-Coastal
Franklin-Coastal Gulf-South Walton.