Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS

Home | Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | Print | Product List | Glossary On
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47
000
FXUS62 KTAE 291743
AFDTAE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tallahassee FL
143 PM EDT FRI APR 29 2016

.AVIATION [Through 18Z Saturday]...

Mainly VFR conditions are expected during the day, except for
brief MVFR cigs possible this afternoon. Some MVFR fog is possible
in the morning. Isolated thunderstorms are possible this afternoon
but the chances are too low to mention in the TAFs.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION [1012 AM EDT]...

.NEAR TERM [Through Today]...

The 06z analysis shows upper level troughing over the 4 corners
region with weak upper ridging over the local area. Low level
moisture is plentiful with dewpoints in the lower 70s across
portions of the area. As a result, areas of fog have developed and
will continue through the mid-morning hours before lifting and
dissipating. A lack of forcing today should keep afternoon
convection isolated with PoPs only in the 10-20 percent range. With
a warm airmass in place and weak upper ridging, afternoon high
temperatures will be above normal today, generally in the upper 80s
to near 90 away from the coast. If the Tallahassee airport reaches
its forecast high of 90 this afternoon, it will be the first 90
degree day for Tallahassee since October 16th last year. Summer
isn`t far away.


.SHORT TERM [Tonight Through Sunday]...

Mid to upper level ridging will slowly move east with flow becoming
nearly zonal on Sunday as a shortwave translates from the Central
Plains to the Ohio Valley. At the surface, a cold front will advance
eastward into the SE CONUS on Sunday. The increasing instability and
deep layer moisture combined with daytime heating will lead to
scattered mainly afternoon showers and thunderstorms across the
entire Tri-state region Sunday. Until then, Saturday will be hot
with only isolated afternoon and early evening showers and
thunderstorms. High temperatures will be near 90 inland and lower
80s along the coast Saturday and mid to upper 80s inland with
lower 80s near the coast Sunday. Lows both nights will be in the
mid to upper 60s.


.LONG TERM [Sunday Night Through Friday]...

The aforementioned cold front will lay out east to west across the
CWA and stall on Monday where it will remain at least through
Tuesday. Then, the upper level pattern will become highly amplified
from mid to late week as a sharp ridge develops out west and a deep
trough digs east of the Plains. This will send the front and most of
the accompanying moisture well to our south and east as bring
another cold front (dry) down from the north late Thursday into
Friday. Rain chances will continue at least through Wednesday with
drier conditions by the end of the week. Max temps will be in the
mid to upper 80s Monday cooling to the upper 70s to lower 80s mid to
late week.
Lows will be in the mid 60s Monday cooling to the mid to upper 50s
by the end of the week.


.MARINE...

Southerly winds will be 10 knots or less with seas 3 feet or less
at least through early next week.


.FIRE WEATHER...

Red flag conditions are not expected for the next several days with
RH values above critical levels. Some high dispersions are possible
on Saturday afternoon away from the coast.


.HYDROLOGY...

There are no river concerns.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...

Tallahassee   67  90  67  87  67 /  10  10  10  30  10
Panama City   69  83  70  82  70 /   0   0  10  30  10
Dothan        67  88  67  86  67 /  10  10  10  40  20
Albany        67  90  67  87  67 /  10  20  20  40  20
Valdosta      68  91  67  89  67 /  10  20  20  40  20
Cross City    66  91  67  87  67 /  10  20  10  20  10
Apalachicola  69  82  70  81  70 /   0   0  10  20  10

&&

.TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

FL...None.
GA...None.
AL...None.
GM...None.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...Fieux
SHORT TERM...DVD
LONG TERM...Barry
AVIATION...Fieux
MARINE...DVD
FIRE WEATHER...Barry
HYDROLOGY...DVD



USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.