Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Great Falls, MT

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FXUS65 KTFX 172047
AFDTFX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Great Falls MT
247 PM MDT Thu Aug 17 2017

.SYNOPSIS...
Mostly dry and warm conditions can be expected over the entire
region for the next week...as a weak upper level ridge resides
over the region. Afternoon highs will generally be in the 80s
through the middle portions of next week. Areas of smoke will
affect the region as well through the upcoming weekend.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Tonight through next Thursday...Overall very little change in the
forecast for the next few days. Above normal temperatures with low
humidity and breezy afternoon/evening winds expected in most
areas. Little to no precipitation is expected through much of the
period. The only changes I made from the national blend models was
to add a slight chance of storms on Monday, mainly over the
central mountains as a weak upper level disturbance moves
southward through the flow aloft. On Wednesday afternoon/evening I
also increased pops a bit as the GFS model progs an upper level
disturbance moving northward into southwest MT.

I did add areas of smoke for tonight through Friday morning along
the divide and then along the I-90 corridor area from Boulder to
Bozeman...but this will continue to be updated as necessary.
Brusda

&&

.AVIATION...
Updated 1740z.
VFR conditions will prevail over the region through the
period...except for areas of smoke...which could create some MVFR
conditions. The smoke will affect areas from just north of Great
Falls southward to Bozeman the greatest. Visibility could be
reduced to less than 4 miles at times. Distant mountains/passes
could be obscured at times. Brusda

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Red Flag Warning continues into this evening for the eastern
portions of the region for gusty winds and low humidity.

The Red Flag Warning includes all areas on Friday and Friday
night. Low humidity and gusty winds are expected once again across
the entire region on Friday. The winds are likely to remain
strong Friday night with poor overnight recovery. Any fires could
remain active throughout the night on Friday.

Additionally fire weather highlights are possible Saturday through
the early portions of next week...as it will remain dry, very warm
and humidity will remain low. Brusda

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GTF  55  91  54  84 /   0   0   0   0
CTB  53  85  51  78 /   0   0   0   0
HLN  55  90  56  88 /   0   0   0   0
BZN  49  87  50  87 /   0   0   0   0
WEY  40  76  39  77 /   0   0   0   0
DLN  48  85  49  85 /   0   0   0   0
HVR  52  92  53  82 /   0   0   0   0
LWT  50  88  53  82 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Red Flag Warning from noon Friday to 6 AM MDT Saturday Central
and Eastern Lewis and Clark National Forest Areas...Chouteau and
Fergus Counties...Deerlodge/Western Beaverhead National Forest...
Eastern Glacier/Toole/Central/Eastern Pondera/Liberty...Helena
and Townsend Ranger Districts of the Helena National Forest...
Hill and Blaine Counties...Lewis and Clark National Forest Rocky
Mountain District-Rocky Mountain Front...Lincoln Ranger District
of the Helena National Forest.

Red Flag Warning until 9 PM MDT this evening Central and Eastern
Lewis and Clark National Forest Areas...Chouteau and Fergus
Counties...Hill and Blaine Counties.

&&

$$

weather.gov/greatfalls



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