Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Great Falls, MT

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FXUS65 KTFX 080515
AFDTFX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
1015 PM MST SUN FEB 7 2016

AVIATION SECTION UPDATED

.DISCUSSION...

TONIGHT...HIGH PRESSURE IS BUILDING ALOFT AND WINDS WILL GENERALLY
REMAIN LIGHT THROUGH THE NIGHT. SOME MID-UPPER LEVEL CLOUDS REMAIN
IN THE AREA BUT THE AIRMASS WILL CONTINUE TO DRY. LOWERED SOME TEMPS
FOR TONIGHT AND ALSO FRESHENED FIRST PERIOD WINDS. ZELZER

&&

.AVIATION...UPDATED 0515Z.

HIGH PRESSURE IS BUILDING ALOFT AND THE AIRMASS WILL WARM AND DRY.
MID-UPPER LEVEL CLOUDINESS WILL DIMINISH TONIGHT AND WINDS WILL BE
LIGHT. AFTERNOON MIXING WILL ALLOW FOR GUSTY WINDS ACROSS THE
NORTHERN ROCKIES AND ADJACENT PLAINS MONDAY. VFR CONDITIONS WILL
PREVAIL THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 438 PM MST SUN FEB 7 2016/

TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...A QUIET WEATHER PATTERN IS IN STORE FOR
THE AREA TO START THE WEEK. AN UPPER RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO
AMPLIFY OVER THE WEST COAST MONDAY AND THEN SPREAD FURTHER INLAND
ON TUESDAY. THE RESULT WILL BE A DRY AND STABLE NORTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT, THOUGH HIGH CLOUDS WILL INCREASE OVERNIGHT. WINDS WILL BE
GENERALLY LIGHT OVERNIGHT AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT CONTINUES TO
RELAX. WINDS WILL BECOME BREEZY AGAIN MONDAY AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES
WILL BE WELL ABOVE SEASONAL AVERAGES WITH READINGS SOME 15 TO 20
DEGREES ABOVE AVERAGE FOR MUCH OF NORTH CENTRAL MONTANA.

TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE
WILL CONTINUE TO RESIDE OVER THE REGION THROUGH THURSDAY
MORNING...ALLOWING FOR MUCH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND DRY
WEATHER TO PREVAIL OVER THE REGION DURING THIS PERIOD. FOR THURSDAY
AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY...THE GFS/EC EACH TRY TO BREAK DOWN THE
RIDGE FOR ABOUT A DAY...BUT THE TIMING IS DIFFERENT...AND SO IS THE
STRENGTH OF THE SYSTEM THAT TRIES TO BREAK DOWN THE RIDGE. AS A
RESULT...CONFIDENCE IS LOW FOR THE POPS LATE THIS WEEK AND INTO THE
WEEKEND...WITH THE BEST CHANCE FOR ANY AREA TO SEE PRECIPITATION
BEING THE ROCKY MOUNTAIN FRONT. TEMPERATURES WILL COOL A TOUCH FOR
FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...BUT STILL AVERAGE 10 TO 15 DEGREES ABOVE
NORMAL FOR MANY AREAS. BOTH MODELS ARE SHOWING THAT BY NEXT SUNDAY
AFTERNOON THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE MIGHT REBUILD OVER THE
REGION...RESULTING IN ANOTHER PERIOD OF DRY/MILD CONDITIONS STARTING
ON SUNDAY AFTERNOON. BRUSDA

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GTF  26  53  34  58 /   0   0   0   0
CTB  24  50  31  55 /   0   0   0   0
HLN  24  44  26  46 /   0   0   0   0
BZN  15  39  18  41 /   0   0   0   0
WEY   3  33  11  36 /   0   0   0   0
DLN  22  41  23  43 /   0   0   0   0
HVR  20  46  26  51 /   0   0   0   0
LWT  21  45  29  51 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/GREATFALLS


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