Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Great Falls, MT

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FXUS65 KTFX 280000
AFDTFX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
500 PM MST Thu Nov 27 2014

Updated Aviation Discussion

.DISCUSSION...

Today through Saturday....Very strong west flow ahead of an
elongated upper level trof is moving across Central Montana.
Surface pressure falls over North-central Montana are
strengthening the pressure gradient and allowing strong winds to
mix down to the surface. Downslope compression combined with warm
advection in this westerly flow has resulted in mild temperatures
across the region this afternoon. Highs reached the 40s and 50s
and visible satellite imagery shows snow cover eroding from the
west. Mild temperatures and strong gusty winds will continue
overnight. The high wind warning was expanded to include counties
adjacent to the Rocky Mountain Front and Norris Hill. Winds may
settle overnight but are expected to strengthen again Friday. Will
leave the High Wind Warning in place for subsequent shifts to
evaluate.

A cold front will move from Canada across the border late
Friday afternoon and move south through the zones during the
evening. Current timing shows low-level moisture crossing the
Canadian border as early as 2 in the afternoon, into Cut Bank by
5, and into Great Falls during the evening. This front will have a
tight surface pressure with it and strong gusty winds are expected
north of the front. Temperatures will fall rapidly and Saturday
will see bitter cold temps across the north and central zones.
Upslope forcing will generate a period of heavy snow Friday night
into early Saturday along the Rocky Mountain Front. A Winter Storm
Watch is posted in these areas to anticipate travel impacts over
area passes. Snow is also expected Friday night and Saturday
across most of the region. With snowfall amounts of 1 to 5 inches
anticipated at lower elevations, will let subsequent shifts
evaluate the need for Winter Weather Advisories for snow and
blowing snow. Nutter

&&

.AVIATION...
UPDATED 0000Z.
Strong west flow aloft will continue across the Northern Rockies and
MT through Friday. At the surface, several waves of low pressure
will move east along the US/Canadian border maintaining strong
westerly surface winds, particularly along the Rocky Mtn Front and
adjacent plains. Further east, winds will diminish slightly, but
remain breezy through tonight. KHLN and KBZN terminals, as well as
other SW MT valley locations, will see light winds with a wind shear
layer just above the surface where moderate west flow exists. Late
Friday afternoon, an Arctic cold front will surge south into
north-central MT, shifting winds to the north followed by low clouds
and developing snow Friday night. Until then, VFR conditions will
prevail. Hoenisch

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GTF  40  51  -3   7 /   0  10  70  80
CTB  37  45 -10  -3 /  10  30 100  80
HLN  36  50  14  26 /  10  20  50  80
BZN  32  49  28  37 /  10  10  30  70
WEY  28  38  25  34 /  20  20  70  70
DLN  35  47  33  39 /  10  10  30  70
HVR  31  43  -1   4 /  10  10  70  60
LWT  37  52   5  13 /   0  10  50  70

&&

.TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
HIGH WIND WARNING until Midnight MST Friday Night Cascade...
Central and Southern Lewis and Clark...Eastern Glacier...Eastern
Pondera...Eastern Teton...Liberty...Northern Rocky Mountain
Front...Southern Rocky Mountain Front...Toole.

WINTER STORM WATCH from Friday afternoon through Saturday
evening Central and Southern Lewis and Clark...Eastern Glacier...
Northern Rocky Mountain Front...Southern Rocky Mountain Front.

HIGH WIND WARNING until Midnight MST Friday Night For Route 287
over Norris Hill in Madison County.

&&

$$

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