Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Tucson, AZ

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FXUS65 KTWC 210327
AFDTWC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TUCSON AZ
825 PM MST SAT SEP 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...DRIER AIR WILL BEGIN TO MOVE INTO THE REGION TOMORROW
WHICH WILL REDUCE RAIN CHANCES THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE WORK WEEK.
AN INCREASE IN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IS EXPECTED BY THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY. NEAR-NORMAL HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE ANTICIPATED THE REST OF
THIS WEEKEND AND NEXT WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...EARLIER SHOWERS AND STORMS HAVE DISSIPATED ACROSS ALL
BUT OUR NORTHEASTERN MOST ZONES WHERE A FEW LINGERING SHOWERS ARE
CURRENTLY IMPACTING PORTIONS OF GRAHAM AND GREENLEE COUNTIES. HAVE
UPDATED GRIDS TO REDUCE POPS AND CLOUD COVER ACROSS THE REST OF THE
REGION. OTHERWISE...NO ADDITIONAL UPDATES ARE ANTICIPATED.

DECREASING MOISTURE...ESPECIALLY ACROSS OUR WESTERN ZONES SHOULD
LIMIT SHOWER AND STORM ACTIVITY PRIMARILY TO EASTERN ARIZONA
TOMORROW AFTERNOON/EVENING.

&&

.AVIATION...VALID THRU 22/06Z.
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED -SHRA NORTH-TO-EAST OF KTUS LATE TONIGHT AND
SUNDAY MORNING. SCATTERED -SHRA/-TSRA WILL THEN OCCUR FROM KTUS
VICINITY EASTWARD AND SOUTHWARD SUNDAY AFTERNOON. MVFR CONDITIONS
AND BRIEF WIND GUSTS TO AROUND 30 KTS WILL OCCUR WITH SHRA/TSRA.
OTHERWISE... SURFACE WIND WILL BE MAINLY LESS THAN 10 KTS THRU
SUNDAY AFTERNOON. AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR TAF AMENDMENTS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...SCATTERED MAINLY AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL OCCUR ESPECIALLY FROM TUCSON EASTWARD AND
SOUTHWARD SUNDAY AND MONDAY. SOMEWHAT DRIER CONDITIONS WILL PRODUCE
LESS COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.
INCREASING CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL THEN PREVAIL
THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY. BRIEF GUSTY OUTFLOWS WILL OCCUR WITH THE
STRONGER THUNDERSTORMS. OTHERWISE...20-FOOT WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE
LESS THAN 15 MPH INTO THE UPCOMING WEEK.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...SUNDAY AND MONDAY...AS THE AFOREMENTIONED UPPER
LOW ROTATES INTO THE NORTHERN GREAT BASIN...SOME DRIER AIR WILL BE
DRIVEN INTO THE REGION ON WESTERLY/SOUTHWESTERLY MIDLEVEL FLOW. WE
SHOULD STILL HOLD ON TO SOME MOISTURE IN OUR EASTERN ZONES...ENOUGH
FOR ISOLATED STORMS DURING THE AFTERNOON/EVENING.

TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...12Z GFS/ECMWF BOTH IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT
THE MIDLEVEL HIGH CENTER WILL SHIFT WEST INTO CALIFORNIA ON TUESDAY.
WITH DRY AIR IN PLACE...TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY BOTH LOOK TO BE
RELATIVELY QUIET WEATHER DAYS ACROSS THE REGION. AT THIS POINT IT
APPEARS THAT JUST ENOUGH MOISTURE WILL LINGER FOR SOME VERY ISOLATED
CONVECTION ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN EAST OF TUCSON.

THURSDAY AND BEYOND...RAIN CHANCES INCREASE THURSDAY AND FRIDAY AS A
POWERFUL PACIFIC TROUGH APPROACHES THE WEST COAST. SOME TIMING
DIFFERENCES BETWEEN THE GFS/ECMWF/CMC RUNS AT THIS POINT...BUT
REGARDLESS...LOOKS LIKE SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL RETURN TO THE AREA
TO CLOSE OUT THE WORK WEEK.

&&

.TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

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