Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Tucson, AZ

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FXUS65 KTWC 272125
AFDTWC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TUCSON AZ
225 PM MST SAT DEC 27 2014

.SYNOPSIS...COLD MORNING ACROSS SOUTHEAST ARIZONA WITH ANOTHER NIGHT
OF WIDESPREAD FREEZING TEMPERATURES TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING WITH
A HARD FREEZE FOR MANY AREAS. TEMPERATURES WILL WARM UP SOME EARLY
NEXT WEEK BEFORE ANOTHER COLD AND WET SYSTEM MOVES IN MIDWEEK.
EXPECT WIDESPREAD VALLEY RAIN AND MOUNTAIN SNOW SHOWERS WEDNESDAY
NIGHT INTO THURSDAY...WITH SNOW POTENTIALLY REACHING THE VALLEY
FLOORS EAST OF TUCSON THURSDAY EVENING.

&&

.DISCUSSION...CHILLY AFTERNOON AFTER A COLD START TO THE DAY WITH
SOME PLACES STRUGGLING TO GET TO THEIR FORECAST HIGHS. UPPER LEVEL
TROF THAT IS OVER THE ERN AREAS TODAY WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE E TNGT.

ANOTHER COLD NIGHT IN STORE FOR THE AREA WITH WIDESPREAD FREEZING
TEMPERATURES. HARD FREEZE WARNING AGAIN TONIGHT FOR EASTERN PIMA AND
PINAL COUNTIES WITH FREEZE WARNING FOR CENTRAL PIMA COUNTY AND SOUTH
CENTRAL PINAL COUNTY.

SUNDAY...HIGHS WILL BE 2-6 DEGREES WARMER IN THE VALLEYS AND 5-10
DEGREES WARMER IN THE MOUNTAINS VERSUS TODAY. SOME MODERATION IN LOW
TEMPERATURES MONDAY MORNING.

MONDAY...AFTER ANOTHER COLD MORNING HIGHS ARE FORECAST TO BE 2-4
DEGREES WARMER THAN SUNDAY UNDER DRY W-NW FLOW ALOFT. OUR NEXT STORM
MAKER WILL BE DEEPENING WELL TO OUR NORTH.

TUESDAY...FLOW ALOFT BECOMES MORE W-SW IN ADVANCE OF NEXT STORM
MAKER AS IT DEEPENS OVER UTAH/NEVADA AND CENTRAL CA. BECOMING
BREEZY AT TIMES IN THE AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY IN THE MOUNTAINS...AS
THE PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS UP. HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS WILL ALSO BE ON
THE INCREASE WITH HIGHS 2-4 DEGREES WARMER THAN MONDAY.

UP TO THIS POINT CONFIDENCE IS HIGH AND IT IS STILL HIGH AFTER
TUESDAY THAT THE AREA WILL SEE A STRONG COLD WINTER STORM IMPACTING
THE AREA WEDNESDAY INTO EARLY FRIDAY. HOWEVER CONFIDENCE IS LOW WITH
OTHER DETAILS LIKE TIMING...AMOUNT OF LIQUID QPF/MOUNTAIN SNOW
AMOUNTS...HOW LOW THE SNOW LEVELS WILL GO AND WHEN THE BEST TIME
THAT THE LOWER ELEVATIONS E AND S OF TUCSON AND POSSIBLY PARTS OF
TUCSON MIGHT SEE ACCUMULATING SNOW. WIND WILL BE RATHER GUSTY ON
WEDNESDAY ESPECIALLY EAST OF TUCSON. IT WILL ALSO BE RATHER CHILLY
AS THE CALENDAR TURNS FROM 2014 TO 2015. STILL PLENTY OF TIME TO
TWEAK AND NAIL DOWN THESE SPECIFIC DETAILS.

&&

.AVIATION...VALID THRU 29/00Z.
A FEW CLOUDS AROUND 7KFT AGL ACROSS FAR SE COCHISE COUNTY VCNTY OF
KDUG THRU 28/03Z...OTRW SKC. MAY SEE SOME THIN CIRRUS LEVEL CLOUDS
MOVE IN TONIGHT UNDER N-NW FLOW ALOFT. NORMAL DIURNAL WIND TRENDS
GENERALLY LESS THAN 10 KTS. AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR TAF
AMENDMENTS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...SEASONABLY COOL AND DRY CONDITIONS WITH GENERALLY
LIGHT TERRAIN DRIVEN WINDS THROUGH MONDAY OR TUESDAY. A DEEP LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL THEN BRING A GOOD CHANCE OF VALLEY RAIN AND
MOUNTAIN SNOW BY LATE WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY. LOWER SNOW LEVELS ARE
POSSIBLE WITH THIS STORM. BREEZY TO WINDY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM...DEVELOPING BY LATE TUESDAY AND STRENGTHENING
WEDNESDAY.

&&

.TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
 HARD FREEZE WARNING FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 9 AM MST SUNDAY FOR
  AZZ504-506.

 FREEZE WARNING FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 9 AM MST SUNDAY FOR
  AZZ502-505.

&&

$$

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