Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Tucson, AZ

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394
FXUS65 KTWC 031542
AFDTWC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tucson AZ
842 AM MST Sat Dec 3 2016

.SYNOPSIS...A storm system over northwest Mexico will bring a
slight chance of valley rain and mountain snow for the extreme
southeast corner of the state this morning. Otherwise, dry
conditions return Sunday and Monday. Another system will then brush
the state late Tuesday into Wednesday will result in a slight chance
of valley rain and mountain snow mainly to areas northeast of Tucson.

&&

.DISCUSSION...Just updated the forecast to reduce/remove POPs for
portions of the forecast area for the remainder of today and into
this evening based on the latest satellite and radar trends.

Water vapor imagery shows the upper low spinning over central Sonora
Mexico, with moisture and associated showers streaming northward
into southern New Mexico. IR satellite imagery shows cloudiness
mainly along the international border and areas south into Sonora,
as well as over a large part of Chihuahua, west Texas and the
southern half of New Mexico. Radar mosaic from around the region
shows scattered showers occurring over extreme southwest and south
central New Mexico, with the activity moving north.

See previous discussion below for info beyond today.

&&

.AVIATION...Valid through 04/12Z.
SCT to LCLY BKN 7-10k ft AGL along/near the international border
this morning with conds improving after 04/01z. ELY/SELY sfc wind 8-
12 kts with gusts to around 20 kts. Aviation discussion not updated
for TAF amendments.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...A slight threat for showers this morning over
Cochise county. Otherwise, dry conditions are expected Sunday and
Monday. Another system may impact the region late Tuesday into
Wednesday.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...Dry Sunday into Tuesday with gusty afternoon
winds Mon and Tues. Models differ on depth on upper trough moving
thru four corners Tuesday night into Wednesday. ECMWF deeper/wetter
than the more progressive/dry GFS. Made some slight adjustments to
the forecast PoPs with best chances now relegated to the White
Mountains. Dry Thursday and Friday. Temperatures, for the most past,
will be seasonable for next week.

&&

.TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...None.

&&

$$

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