Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Tucson, AZ

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FXUS65 KTWC 232127

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tucson AZ
227 PM MST Mon Oct 23 2017

.SYNOPSIS...Record or near record high temperatures can be expected
today and Tuesday. Temperatures will gradually decrease the rest
of the week, but remain above average for late October. Dry
conditions will also prevail, with a period of strong easterly
breezes on Tuesday into early Wednesday.


.DISCUSSION...An unseasonably strong ridge of high pressure will
bring record high temperatures to the area today, with near
record values Tuesday. We`re on the eastern flank of the ridge
with a strong trough digging into most of the country downstream.

Dry conditions in the flow around the ridge with precipitable
water between .2 and .3 inches. Surface dew points are down 8 to
10 degrees over the past 24 hours, generally in the teens and
20s. We`ll see gusty easterly winds develop Tuesday as a surface
high builds down the front range of the rockies, but still not
much moisture.

High pressure will retreat into the eastern Pacific as the trough
deepens through much of the rest of the country. As a result our
temperatures will gradually moderate over the next several days,
but still remain above average. Gusty winds developing Friday as
the ridge tries to nudge back in from the west and a stubborn mean
trough position remains immediately downstream.

No precip until further notice.


.AVIATION...Valid thru 25/00Z.
Clear skies and SFC wind generally NELY-SELY less than 12 kts
through the evening. Becoming 12 to 20 kts Tuesday morning.
Aviation discussion not updated for TAF amendments.


.FIRE WEATHER...Dry conditions will persist through the week.
High temperatures will warm and surpass record values today and
reach near record values again on Tuesday before a gradual cooling
trend begins. Light easterly winds today will strengthen from the
east/southeast on Tuesday into Wednesday, with gusts to 25-35 mph at
times. A few locations in Fire Weather Zone 151 may briefly reach
critical fire weather thresholds late Tuesday morning into the early
afternoon hours. Winds will turn west/northwesterly Thursday and
Friday and become breezy once again, especially for areas east of






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