Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Tucson, AZ

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FXUS65 KTWC 300352
AFDTWC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TUCSON AZ
852 PM MST WED JUL 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...AN ELEVATED CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS
SOUTHEAST ARIZONA WILL CONTINUE THIS WEEK WITH SOME STORMS PRODUCING
LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN AND STRONG WINDS. RAIN CHANCES WILL CONTINUE OVER
THE WEEKEND...BUT COVERAGE WILL DECREASE WITH A WEAKER FLOW AS HIGH
PRESSURE INCREASES ALOFT.

&&

.DISCUSSION...FAIRLY WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPED
THIS AFTERNOON AND CONTINUE THIS EVENING...MAINLY FOCUSED FROM THE
CENTRAL PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA EASTWARD. LATEST KEMX RADAR
IMAGERY SHOWS THE BULK OF THE STORMS OVER COCHISE AND SOUTHERN
GRAHAM COUNTY WITH SOME LIGHTER SHOWERS AND A FEW EMBEDDED
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS EASTERN PIMA COUNTY. THERE WERE SOME
ISOLATED AREAS OF 1 TO 2 INCHES OF RAIN WITH THE HIGHEST TOTAL WE
RECEIVED BEING JUST UNDER 2 INCHES IN SAN MANUEL. HEADING THROUGH
THE REST OF THE EVENING AND THE OVERNIGHT...EXPECT SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO PERSIST ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE EASTERN
ZONES AS NUMEROUS RESIDUAL OUTFLOWS PERSIST. THIS IS IN GOOD
AGREEMENT WITH LATEST HRRR AS WELL WHICH GRADUALLY TAPERS
OFF CONVECTION OVERNIGHT FOR EASTERN ZONES. MEANWHILE...FOR
LOCATIONS ACROSS CENTRAL AND WESTERN PIMA COUNTY AND ADJACENT PINAL
COUNTY WE HAVE REDUCED POPS JUST A BIT AS OUTFLOWS ARE MAKING THEIR
WAY WESTWARD WITHOUT INITIATING CONVECTION. OTHERWISE...NO
SIGNIFICANT CHANGES EXCEPT MADE SOME MINOR TWEAKS TO THE FORECAST
TO ADJUST FOR LATEST TEMPERATURE TRENDS.

&&

.AVIATION...VALID THRU 31/00Z.
SCT CLOUDS AT 6-10K FT AGL...SCT-BKN CLOUDS AT 10-14K FT AGL AND BKN
CLOUDS AOA 20K FT AGL THRU 30/06Z. SLOWLY DIMINISHING CLOUDS AFT
30/06Z...WITH FEW-SCT CLOUDS AT 10-14K FT AGL AND SCT-BKN CLOUDS AOA
20K FT AGL BY 30/10Z. AFT 30/17Z...SCT-BKN CLOUDS AT 6-10K FT AGL
AND BKN-OVC CLOUDS AT 10-14K FT AGL. ISOLD-SCT SHRA/TSRA THRU
30/06Z...WITH SCT-NUMEROUS SHRA/TSRA DEVELOPING AGAIN AFT 30/17Z.
MVFR CONDITIONS AND VRB WIND GUSTS TO 40 KTS POSSIBLE IN AND AROUND
THE STRONGER TSRA. OUTSIDE OF STORM INFLUENCES...SFC WINDS WILL
GENERALLY BE LESS THAN 12 KTS WITH A FEW HIGHER GUSTS IN THE
AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING HOURS. AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR
TAF AMENDMENTS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS MUCH OF
SOUTHEAST ARIZONA INTO FRIDAY...WITH DIMINISHING PRECIPITATION
CHANCES OVER THE UPCOMING WEEKEND...ESPECIALLY FROM TUCSON NORTH AND
WEST. STRONG OUTFLOW WINDS WILL BE POSSIBLE NEAR THUNDERSTORMS...
WITH WIND GUSTS BETWEEN 40 AND 45 MPH. OTHERWISE...20-FT WINDS WILL
GENERALLY BE TERRAIN DRIVEN AND LESS THAN 15 MPH...WITH SOME
AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING BREEZINESS DUE TO THE STRONG DAYTIME
HEATING.

&&

.TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

PUBLIC...GL
AVIATION/FIRE WEATHER...ZELL

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