Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Tucson, AZ

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FXUS65 KTWC 141209
AFDTWC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TUCSON AZ
300 AM MST MON JUL 14 2014

.SYNOPSIS...EXPECT DAILY ROUNDS OF THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH TUESDAY.
SOME STORMS WILL PRODUCE LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AND POTENTIALLY
DAMAGING WIND GUSTS. STORMS WILL TEND TO BE MORE ISOLATED IN NATURE
DURING THE LATTER HALF OF THE WORK WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...REMNANTS OF LAST NIGHTS MCS WAS OVER SW AZ THIS
MORNING WITH SCATTERED DEBRIS CLOUDS OVER SE AZ. LAST NIGHTS 500 MB
UPPER AIR PLOT SHOWED BROAD RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDING FROM
WRN OR TO CNTRL TX WITH TWO HIGH CENTERS...ONE OVER ERN NV WITH THE
2ND JUST SOUTH OF THE TX PANHANDLE. AN INVERTED TROF...WHICH HELPED
WITH SUNDAYS BIG STORMS...WAS OVER SRN AZ. SO WHAT ABOUT TODAY?
NORMALLY THERE IS A DOWN DAY FOR THE VALLEYS AFTER A BIG DAY.
HOWEVER...ALL NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUGGESTING THAT THERE IS ONE MORE
WAVE OVER MEXICO THAT WILL MOVE NORTH TODAY WHILE THE TX PANHANDLE
HIGH DRIFTS TOWARD THE NM BOOT AREA. AT THIS TIME LOOKING AT DEBRIS
CLOUDS TO DIMINISH ENOUGH THAT IS WON`T LIMIT DAYTIME HEATING. THUS
EXPECT STORMS TO FIRE OFF OVER THE MOUNTAINS. THEY MAY INITIALLY
HAVE TROUBLE COMING OFF THE HIGHER TERRAIN BUT AS THE DAY PROGRESSES
S-SE 10-15 KT MID-LEVEL FLOW SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO PUSH STORMS OFF THE
HIGHER TERRAIN INTO THE VALLEYS. SOME OF THE HIGH RESOLUTION MODELS
ARE SUGGESTING LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AS ATMOSPHERE REMAINS RATHER
MOIST FOR MID-JULY.

STILL RATHER ACTIVE ON TUESDAY BEFORE SOME DOWN TIME WEDNESDAY
THROUGH FRIDAY AS THE AREA DRYS OUT A BIT. MAY SEE AN UPTICK IN
ACTIVITY LATE IN THE WEEKEND TO NEXT MONDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...DEBRIS CLOUDS WILL BE DIMINISHING THIS MORNING.
ISOLD-SCT TSRA ONCE AGAIN THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING. LOCAL
MVFR/IFR CIGS/VSBYS/MT OBSCURATIONS AND GUSTS 40 KTS BTWN 14/19Z AND
15/04Z. OTHERWISE...SFC WIND GENERALLY 15 KTS OR LESS. AVIATION
DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR TAF AMENDMENTS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...MOSTLY AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS EACH DAY THROUGH THE NEXT 7 DAYS. TODAY AND TUESDAY
WILL HAVE THE MOST ACTIVITY WILL LESS AREAL COVERAGE OF STORMS
STARTING WEDNESDAY INTO NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

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