Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Tucson, AZ

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FXUS65 KTWC 261106
AFDTWC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TUCSON AZ
405 AM MST SAT JUL 26 2014

.SYNOPSIS...THERE IS A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON
THROUGH TONIGHT. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL SHOULD OCCUR WITH THE
STRONGER THUNDERSTORMS. THEREAFTER...EXPECT SCATTERED MAINLY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE UPCOMING WEEK. NEAR
AVERAGE DAYTIME TEMPERATURES WILL PREVAIL NEXT WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...THE BROAD SCALE PATTERN THRU AT LEAST THE MIDDLE OF
THE UPCOMING WEEK WILL BE CHARACTERIZED BY A HIGHLY AMPLIFIED UPPER
RIDGE OVER THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST. NO APPRECIABLE CHANGE IN
AVAILABLE MOISTURE FOR CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY IS PROGGED TO OCCUR THIS
FORECAST PERIOD. OCCASIONAL DISTURBANCES EMBEDDED WITHIN THE
GENERALLY ELY FLOW REGIME WILL SERVE TO ENHANCE SHOWER/TSTM ACTIVITY.

TODAY THRU TONIGHT...
VARIOUS NWP MESOSCALE MODELS WERE SIMILAR WITH DEPICTING A LATER
START OF SHOWER/TSTM ACTIVITY TODAY VERSUS FRI. AT THIS TIME APPEARS
THAT DRY CONDITIONS WILL OCCUR THIS MORNING...AT LEAST ACROSS MUCH
OF SE AZ. THEREAFTER...SHOWERS/TSTMS SHOULD INITIATE SHORTLY AFTER
19Z MOSTLY ACROSS THE WHITE MOUNTAINS AND PERHAPS ACROSS THE
CHIRICAHUA MOUNTAINS IN ERN COCHISE COUNTY.

SHOWERS/TSTMS ARE THEN PROGGED TO MOVE WWD AND FAVOR LOCALES
SOUTH-TO-SOUTHEAST OF TUCSON LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING...
AS WELL AS THE HIGHER TERRAIN NE OF TUCSON. APPEARS THAT THE BEST
TIMING FOR SHOWERS/TSTMS TO OCCUR IN THE TUCSON METRO AREA WILL BE
LATE THIS EVENING THRU LATE TONIGHT. ISOLATED SHOWERS/TSTMS SHOULD
BE MOSTLY WEST-TO-NORTHWEST OF TUCSON AROUND DAYBREAK SUN. THE MAIN
CONCERN WILL BE THE POTENTIAL FOR LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AND STRONG
BRIEF WIND GUSTS WITH THE STRONGER TSTMS.

SUN...
26/00Z GFS/ECMWF DEPICT A DISTURBANCE TO APPROACH SE AZ FROM THE
EAST SUN AFTERNOON. THIS SYSTEM MAY ENHANCE THE POTENTIAL FOR CELLS
TO FAVOR STRONG WIND GUSTS AND SMALL HAIL. HAVE DEPICTED SCATTERED
COVERAGE OF SHOWERS/TSTMS ACROSS MUCH OF THIS FORECAST AREA SUN
AFTERNOON/EVENING. THERE IS ENOUGH MOISTURE TO JUSTIFY A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF SHOWERS/TSTMS AREA-WIDE LATE SUN NIGHT.

MON-FRI...
EXPECT SCATTERED MAINLY AFTERNOON/EVENING SHOWERS/TSTMS TO PREVAIL...
WITH THE BULK OF THIS ACTIVITY TO GENERALLY BE EAST AND SOUTH OF
TUCSON.

HIGH TEMPS THRU NEXT FRI FROM TUCSON WWD WILL GENERALLY BE WITHIN A
DEGREE-OR-TWO OF SEASONAL NORMALS FOR LATE JULY. MEANWHILE...DAYTIME
TEMPS EAST OF TUCSON WILL GENERALLY AVERAGE ABOUT 2-5 DEGS F OR SO
ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION...VALID THRU 27/12Z.
DRY CONDITIONS WILL OCCUR THIS MORNING FOLLOWED BY SCATTERED -TSRA/
-SHRA THIS AFTERNOON THRU TONIGHT. EXPECT MVFR VISIBILITIES WITH
+TSRA AS WELL AS POTENTIAL WIND GUSTS TO NEAR 40-45 KTS.
OTHERWISE...MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES EAST OF KTUS WITH PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES
WEST OF TUCSON THIS MORNING FOLLOWED BY CLOUD DECKS GENERALLY AT
8-15K FT AGL THIS AFTERNOON THRU TONIGHT. AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT
UPDATED FOR TAF AMENDMENTS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...MOISTURE WILL BE SUFFICIENT TO PROVIDE SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS INTO THE MIDDLE OF THE UPCOMING WEEK. MUCH OF THIS
ACTIVITY WILL OCCUR DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS. EXPECT
STRONG...GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS NEAR THE STRONGER STORMS.
OTHERWISE...NORMAL DIURNAL WIND TRENDS WILL OCCUR WITH OCCASIONAL
GUSTS DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS DUE TO DAYTIME HEATING.

&&

.TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...YOUTUBE...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/TUCSON

FRANCIS





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