Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Rapid City, SD

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FXUS63 KUNR 291721
AFDUNR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
1121 AM MDT SUN MAR 29 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 902 AM MDT SUN MAR 29 2015

15Z SURFACE ANALYSIS HAD 8MB/3HR PRESSURE RISE BUBBLE SHIFTING
EAST OF THE CWA WITH RAPIDLY DECREASING WINDS BEHIND IT. WILL
ALLOW HIGH WIND WARNING TO EXPIRE ON TIME WITH LEFTOVER WIND
ADVISORY IN SOUTH CENTRAL SD LASTING A BIT LONGER.

&&

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT
ISSUED AT 234 AM MDT SUN MAR 29 2015

CURRENT SURFACE MAP SHOWS COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH EASTERN
DAKOTAS...WITH SECONDARY TROF ROTATING THROUGH WESTERN SOUTH
DAKOTA. WITH 5-6MB/3HR PRESSURE RISES AND STEEP LOW LEVEL LAPSE
RATES WITH SECONDARY TROF...SEEING SECOND ROUND OF WIND GUSTS
AROUND 60 MPH. BEST PRESSURE RISES SHIFT EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA
THIS MORNING...WITH DECREASING WINDS THROUGH THE DAY. WILL LEAVE
CURRENT WIND HEADLINES IN PLACE THROUGH EARLY MORNING. WITH THE
GUSTY WINDS AND LOWER HUMIDITY...THE GRASSLAND FIRE DANGER WILL BE
IN THE VERY HIGH TO EXTREME CATEGORY.

WARM AND DRY FOR MONDAY...WITH HIGHS BACK INTO THE 70S FOR MOST
LOCATIONS. WITH DEEP MIXING...WILL BECOME BREEZY MONDAY AFTERNOON.
GRASSLAND FIRE DANGER WILL BE IN EXTREME CATEGORY.

.LONG TERM...TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY
ISSUED AT 234 AM MDT SUN MAR 29 2015

UPPER LEVEL RIDGE CROSSES THE NORTHERN PLAINS ON
TUESDAY...WITH DRY CONDITIONS AND WELL ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES
EXPECTED. A STRONG SHORTWAVE TROF WILL SLIDE ACROSS THE NORTHERN
PLAINS ON WEDNESDAY...WITH SOME SHOWERS POSSIBLE...ALTHOUGH MODELS
CONTINUE TO TREND DRIER WITH THIS SYSTEM FOR OUR CWA. A STRONG COLD
FRONT WILL ACCOMPANY THIS UPPER DISTURBANCE...BRINGING SLIGHTLY
COOLER TEMPERATURES AND GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS TO THE AREA.

UPPER FLOW BECOMES MORE NORTHWESTERLY FOR THE END OF THE WEEK...WITH
ANOTHER TROUGH MOVING THROUGH THE CENTRAL PLAINS. MODELS ARE IN A
LITTLE BETTER AGREEMENT...KEEPING THE BEST ENERGY JUST SOUTH OF THE
AREA. ECM/GFS/GEM ARE ALL HINTING AT A BAND OF PRECIP SETTING UP
OVER THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE CWA THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY...WITH
CONDITIONS DRYING OUT LATE FRIDAY INTO NEXT WEEKEND. SOME OF THE
PRECIP MAY BE IN THE FORM OF SNOW AS LOWS THURSDAY NIGHT WILL BE
BELOW FREEZING IN MOST PLACES. TEMPERATURES FOR THE END OF THE WEEK
LOOK TO BE NEAR AVERAGE...IN THE 50S.

&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY
ISSUED AT 1120 AM MDT SUN MAR 29 2015

NORTHWEST WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO DIMINISH THIS AFTERNOON...WITH
LIGHT WINDS OVERNIGHT. VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH MONDAY
MORNING.

&&

.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...HELGESON
SHORT TERM...7
LONG TERM...15
AVIATION...POJORLIE





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