Routine Space Environment Product (Daily)
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000
FXXX12 KWNP 301231
DAYDIS

:Product: Forecast Discussion
:Issued: 2016 Apr 30 1230 UTC
# Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
# Product description and SWPC contact on the Web
# http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/wwire.html
#
#             Forecast Discussion
#
Solar Activity

.24 hr Summary...
Solar activity was at low levels. Regions 2539 (N18E37, Cao/beta)
produced the strongest flare of the period, a C1 at 30/1047 UTC. Region
2536 exhibited consolidation in its leader spot. Region 2535 (N05W06,
Cso/beta) showed decay near the leader spot. All other active regions
were relatively stable. No Earth-directed CMEs were observed in
available coronagraph imagery.

.Forecast...
Solar activity is expected to be at very low levels with a chance for
C-class flares all three days of the period (30 Apr - 02 May).


Energetic Particle

.24 hr Summary...
The greater than 2 MeV electron flux continued at normal to moderate
levels while the greater than 10 MeV proton flux remained at background
levels.

.Forecast...
The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to decrease to normal
levels on days one and two (30 Apr - 01 May) due to electron
redistribution from expected CIR and CME effects. By day three (02 May),
electron flux levels are expected to rise to moderate to high levels.
The greater than 10 MeV proton flux is expected to continue at
background levels.


Solar Wind

.24 hr Summary...
Solar wind parameters, as measured by the ACE spacecraft, began the
period under nominal solar wind conditions. Around 30/0300 UTC, the
total magnetic field strength dropped to around 1-2 nT until an increase
to 8nT was observed between 30/0600-0700 UTC. No significant periods of
Bz south were observed during over the past 24 hours. Solar wind speeds
have been relatively low, between 340-380 km/s. Phi angle was oriented
in the positive (away) sector until a transition to the negative
(towards) sector was observed after 30/0629 UTC.

.Forecast...
Solar wind conditions are likely to undergo further enhancement on day
one (30 Apr) as a CIR transitions into a negative polarity CH HSS.
Enhancements in the solar wind are likely to persist into day two (01
May). An additional enhancement is possible on day two as the periphery
of the 28 Apr CME passes by Earth. A trend towards background conditions
is expected on day three (02 May).


Geospace

.24 hr Summary...
The geomagnetic field was quiet.

.Forecast...
On day one (30 Apr), the geomagnetic field is likely to reach active to
minor storm (G1-Minor) levels due to the onset of a CIR ahead of a
negative polarity CH HSS. Unsettled to active conditions are
likely for day two (01 May) as CH HSS effects continue coupled with the
possible influences from the periphery of the 28 Apr CME. By day three
(02 May), mostly quiet to unsettled conditions are expected as CH HSS
and CME effects wane.



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