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FXXX12 KWNP 071230

:Product: Forecast Discussion
:Issued: 2015 Jul 07 1230 UTC
# Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
# Product description and SWPC contact on the Web
#             Forecast Discussion
Solar Activity

.24 hr Summary...
Solar activity was at moderate levels. Region 2381 (N14E23,
Ekc/beta-gamma) grew early in the period, as it gained penumbral area in
the lead spots, however the region showed signs of decay later in the
period as the intermediate penumbral spot began to combine with the
leader, while the trailer spots lost penumbral coverage. The region also
stretched further in longitudinal extent without any evidence of
increased magnetic shear. Despite these signs of dissipation, the region
retained some weak magnetic mixing and was unstable as it produced
numerous C-class flares and the largest flare of the period, an M1/2n at
06/2040 UTC.

An active surge region became visible just beyond the SE limb in SDO/AIA
304 imagery and GOES-15/SXI X-ray imagery. This active region appeared
to be a contributor to a series of C-class flares that began about
06/1526 UTC through 06/1702 UTC. This same regions activity may have
been related to a coronal mass ejection (CME) first noted in SOHO/LASCO
C-2 coronagraph imagery at 06/1524 UTC. Analysis of all available
imagery indicates this CME was south and east of the Earths orbital

All other regions on the disk were either stable or in decay. No
Earth-directed CMEs were detected in available coronagraph imagery.

Solar activity is expected to be low with a chance for M-class
(R1-R2/Minor-Moderate) flares and a slight chance for X-class
(R3-Strong) activity over the next three days (07-09 Jul), particularly
from instability of Region 2381 and the active surge region rotating
onto the SE limb.

Energetic Particle

.24 hr Summary...
The greater than 2 MeV electron flux was at normal to moderate levels
while the greater than 10 MeV proton flux remained at background levels
throughout the period.

The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to be at moderate to
high levels throughout the period (07-09 Jul). The greater than 10 MeV
proton flux is expected to remain at background levels (Below S1-Minor).

Solar Wind

.24 hr Summary...
Solar wind parameters remained indicative of weakening coronal hole high
speed stream (CH HSS) effects. Solar wind speeds were variable primarily
between 450-500 km/s through most of the period. A brief intensification
in speed from 550-600 km/s occurred between about 07/0230-0251 UTC,
after which speeds dropped back to around 450-475 km/s. IMF total field
values ranged from about 3-7 nT and the Bz component was variable
between -4 nT and 4nT. The phi component was primarily in a negative
(towards) orientation.

A return to an ambient solar wind environment is expected on day one (07
Jul) and remain undisturbed throughout days two and three (08-09 Jul).


.24 hr Summary...
Geomagnetic field conditions were quiet to unsettled during the period
as CH HSS effects continued to subside.

The geomagnetic field is expected to be at mostly quiet levels
throughout the period (07-09 Jul). is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.