Routine Space Environment Product (Daily)
Issued by NWS

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000
FXXX12 KWNP 240032
DAYDIS

:Product: Forecast Discussion
:Issued: 2017 Apr 24 0030 UTC
# Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
# Product description and SWPC contact on the Web
# http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/wwire.html
#
#             Forecast Discussion
#
Solar Activity

.24 hr Summary...
Solar activity was very low. Region 2651 (N12E04, Cso/beta) exhibited
only minor change within its intermediate spots and Region 2652 (N14E17,
Bxo/beta) reemerged but remained relatively simple. Region 2653 (S09E45,
Hax/alpha) was mostly stable throughout the period.

An eruptive filament, located near N12E39, was observed in SDO/AIA 304
imagery at approximately 23/0526 UTC. An associated CME was observed in
LASCO C2 coronagraph imagery at 23/0600 UTC. Modeling of the event
suggested no Earth-directed component was likely.

A episode of coronal dimming was observed in SDO/AIA 193 near N40W01 but
further coronagraph imagery is needed to determine if there was an
associated CME with an Earth-directed component.

.Forecast...
Solar activity is expected to be very low with a chance for C-class
flare activity over the next three days (24-26 Apr).

Energetic Particles

.24 hr Summary...
The greater than 2 MeV electron flux was at normal to high levels with a
peak flux of 20,544 pfu observed at 23/1720 UTC. The greater than 10 MeV
proton flux remained at background values.

.Forecast...
The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to reach high levels
over the next three days (24-26 Apr), with very high levels possible on
days two and three (25-26 Apr), due to sustained fast solar wind speeds
from the negative polarity CH HSS. No solar radiation storms are
expected during the forecast period.

Solar Wind

.24 hr Summary...
Solar wind parameters, as measured by the DSCOVR spacecraft, were
indicative of the continued influence of a negative polarity CH HSS.
Solar wind speeds indicated a gradual increase through the period,
generally ranging between 675 km/s to 750 km/s with a peak speed of 813
km/s observed at 23/2022 UTC. Total field (Bt) ranged between 4 and 9
nT, while the Bz component reached a maximum southward deflection of -7
nT. Phi angle was predominantly oriented in a negative sector.

.Forecast...
Enhancements in the solar wind are likely to continue over the next
three days (24-26 Apr) due to continued influence from the recurrent,
negative polarity CH HSS.

Geospace

.24 hr Summary...
The geomagnetic field was at active to G2 (Moderate) storm levels due to
the influence of a strong, negative polarity CH HSS.

.Forecast...
The geomagnetic field is likely to reach G1 (Minor) storm levels on days
one through three (24-26 Apr) as CH HSS influence persists.



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