Routine Space Environment Product (Daily)
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000
FXXX12 KWNP 201231
DAYDIS

:Product: Forecast Discussion
:Issued: 2017 Feb 20 1230 UTC
# Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
# Product description and SWPC contact on the Web
# http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/wwire.html
#
#             Forecast Discussion
#
Solar Activity

.24 hr Summary...
Solar activity was at very low levels this period.  Region 2636 (N11W06)
decayed into plage and minor decay was also observed in Region 2637
(S04E53, Axx/alpha).  New Region 2638 (N17E63, Dao/beta) was numbered
this period but appears to be comprised of two separate regions,
however, the proximity to the NE limb made analysis difficult.

Two episodes of coronal dimming were observed in SDO/AIA 193 imagery
this period.  The first episode began at around 20/0030 UTC and was
centered near N08E30 and the second episode was observed beginning at
around 20/0500 UTC and was centered near N05E06.  No Earth-directed CMEs
were observed in available coronagraph imagery.

.Forecast...
Solar activity is expected to continue at very low levels with a chance
for C-class flare activity over the next three days (20-22 Feb).

Energetic Particle

.24 hr Summary...
The greater than 2 MeV electron flux was at normal to moderate levels
and the greater than 10 MeV proton flux was steady at background levels.

.Forecast...
The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to continue at normal
to moderate levels with a chance for high levels over the next three
days (20-22 Feb).  The greater than 10 MeV proton flux is expected to
persist at background levels throughout the forecast period.

Solar Wind

.24 hr Summary...
Solar wind parameters reflected the continued influence of a positive
polarity CH HSS.  Total interplanetary field strength values were steady
at around 5 nT and the southward component remained near 0 nT throughout
the period.  Solar wind speeds briefly peak at around 605 km/s early in
the period but were generally steady between 525-575 km/s throughout the
remainder of the period.

.Forecast...
Solar wind parameters are expected to remain slightly enhanced over the
next three days (20-22 Feb) due to the continued influence of a positive
polarity CH HSS.

Geospace

.24 hr Summary...
The geomagnetic field was at quiet to unsettled levels this period.

.Forecast...
The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels on
days one and two (20-21 Feb) with quiet to active levels likely on day
three (22 Feb) due to the continued influence of a positive polarity CH
HSS.



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