Routine Space Environment Product (Daily)
Issued by NWS

Home | Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | Print | Product List | Glossary On
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27
000
FXXX12 KWNP 241230
DAYDIS

:Product: Forecast Discussion
:Issued: 2015 May 24 1230 UTC
# Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
# Product description and SWPC contact on the Web
# http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/wwire.html
#
#             Forecast Discussion
#
Solar Activity

.24 hr Summary...
Solar activity was low this period.  Region 2353 (N07W27, Dao/beta)
produced a C2/Sf flare at 23/1739 UTC. The region underwent penumbral
growth early in the period, but later exhibited signs of weakening in
both organization and magnetic field structure as the trailer spots
decayed slightly and overall magnetic complexity lessened. Region 2349
(S21W43, Dao/beta) underwent slight growth in penumbral coverage but
remained relatively simple in magnetic field complexity and was
generally unproductive. New Region 2355 (S10E48, Cao/beta) emerged this
period, grew slowly but remained quiet. The remaining regions on the
disc were either stable or in decay.

At about 24/0745 UTC a surge of material was noted from just beyond the
SE limb as noted in SDO/AIA imagery. Initial analysis indicates some of
the ejecta may have escaped into space, but it did not appear to be on a
Sun-Earth line. We await SOHO/LASCO coronagraph imagery to determine if
a coronal mass ejection (CME) was associated with this event. No
Earth-directed coronal mass ejections (CMEs) were observed this period.

.Forecast...
Solar activity is expected to be very low with a chance for C-class
flares over the next three days (24-26 May), primarily from Regions 2349
and 2353.

Energetic Particle

.24 hr Summary...
The greater than 2 MeV electron flux was at normal to moderate levels
and the greater than 10 MeV proton flux was at background levels this
period.

.Forecast...
The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to be at normal to
moderate levels over the next three days (24-26 May) and the greater
than 10 MeV proton flux is expected to remain at background levels
throughout the forecast period.

Solar Wind

.24 hr Summary...
Solar wind parameters measured at the ACE satellite indicated ambient
conditions. Solar wind speeds were fairly steady at an average speed of
about 335 km/s and ranged primarily between 325-350 km/s. Total magnetic
field strength was relatively steady at about 4 nT for most of the
period, but had a few small deviations that ranged between 1-6 nT. The
Bz component fluctuated between north and south orientations, and
reached a maximum negative deflection near -4 nT about mid-period. The
phi angle was stable in a positive (away from the Sun) configuration
until 23/1830 UTC when it transitioned into a negative (toward the Sun)
sector.

.Forecast...
Solar wind parameters are expected to remain at ambient levels over
the next three days (24-26 May) under a nominal solar wind regime.

Geospace

.24 hr Summary...
The geomagnetic field remained quiet.

.Forecast...
The geomagnetic field is expected to persist at quiet levels over the
next three days (24-26 May) as Earth is likely to remain under the
influence of an ambient solar wind environment.



USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.