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FXXX12 KWNP 300031

:Product: Forecast Discussion
:Issued: 2015 Nov 30 0030 UTC
# Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
# Product description and SWPC contact on the Web
#             Forecast Discussion
Solar Activity

.24 hr Summary...
Solar activity was very low.  Only mid level B-class flares were
observed from Regions 2458 (N08W21, Cao/beta) and 2459 (N04E04,
Axx/alpha).  The largest flare was a B6/Sf at 29/0737 UTC from Region
2459.  Slight growth was observed in the intermediate spots of Region
2458.  Newly numbered Region 2461 (S07W54, Axx/alpha) emerged during the
period with a lone spot and was inactive.  No Earth-directed coronal
mass ejections (CMEs) were observed during the period.

A full-halo CME was observed in STEREO A COR 2 imagery beginning at
29/0824 UTC.  Analysis concluded that this was a far-sided event as
STEREO A EUVI imagery showed a correlated filament eruption on the
backside around 29/0755 UTC.

Solar activity is expected to be at very low levels with a chance for
C-class flares over the next three days (30 Nov-02 Dec).

Energetic Particle

.24 hr Summary...
The greater than 2 MeV electron flux was at normal levels while the
greater than 10 MeV proton flux remained at background levels throughout
the period.

The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to be at normal to
moderate levels over the next three days (30 Nov-02 Dec).  The greater
than 10 MeV proton flux is expected to persist at background levels for
the forecast period.

Solar Wind

.24 hr Summary...
Solar wind speed increased from approximately 350 km/s to 470 km/s over
the period.  Total field continued to be slightly enhanced between 5 nT
and 15 nT while the Bz component ranged from 13 nT to -7 nT and was
mostly northward until approximately 29/1800, at which point it turned
primarily southward.  Phi angle was mostly negative (towards) and
switched to a positive orientation after 29/1800 UTC.

Nominal levels are expected through late on day one (30 Nov).  Late on
day one into day three (01-03 Dec), the arrival of a co-rotating
interaction region (CIR) and subsequent coronal hole high speed stream
(CH HSS) influences are expected to cause enhancements in the solar wind


.24 hr Summary...
The geomagnetic field was at quiet to unsettled levels with an isolated
active period from 29/2100-2400 UTC due to prolonged negative Bz and
slightly enhanced wind speeds.

The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels
with isolated active periods possible overnight if Bz continues to
remain southward.  By late on day one, a CIR from a positive polarity
coronal hole is expected to become geoeffective causing unsettled to
active periods.  Active to G1 (Minor) storm conditions are likely on day
two (01 Dec) due to CH HSS effects.  Unsettled to active conditions are
expected on day three as the CH HSS begins to wane. is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.