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FXXX12 KWNP 291231

:Product: Forecast Discussion
:Issued: 2015 Jan 29 1230 UTC
# Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
# Product description and SWPC contact on the Web
#             Forecast Discussion
Solar Activity

.24 hr Summary...
Solar activity was again at moderate levels during the period. Region
2277 (N08E64, Fao/beta-gamma) produced a M1/Sf flare at 28/2137 UTC, as
well as multiple C-class flares during the period. Region 2268 (S10W10,
Fkc/beta-gamma) produced a M2 flare near the end of the period at
29/1142 UTC, along with a C8/1n flare at 29/0523 UTC. As with the
previous flares from the past few days, none had associated radio
signatures that would suggest associated coronal mass ejections (CMEs).
LASCO coronagraph imagery will be analyzed as data becomes available.

Region 2268 continued to exhibit slight growth in its intermediate spot
area, as well as increased separation between the intermediate and
trailer spots. Region 2277 continued to rotate onto the NE limb,
exposing even more spots and an increased area of enhanced plage
associated with this region. Region 2271 (N17W37, (Dai/beta-gamma) also
showed signs of growth in its leader and intermediate spots as it
approaches the western limb. New Region 2278 (S09E31, Bxo/beta) was
numbered during the period, though it remained fairly inactive. The
other regions on the visible disk remained relatively stable. No
apparent Earth-directed CMEs were observed in available LASCO
coronagraph imagery.

Solar activity is expected to be at low levels with a chance for
isolated M-class (R1-R2, Minor-Moderate) flares and a slight chance for
R3-Strong activity over the next three days (29-31 Jan). Most of the
increased flare activity is likely to originate from Regions 2268 and
2277 as they maintain their large size and complex magnetic structures.

Energetic Particle

.24 hr Summary...
The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit was at
normal levels. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux at geosynchronous
orbit indicated a very minor enhancement, remaining below 1 pfu. This
activity is believed to be associated with the first of two M1 flares
that occurred on 28 Jan.

The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit is forecast
to be at normal to moderate levels through the forecast period (29-31
Jan). The greater than 10 MeV proton flux is expected to remain at or
near background levels (Below S1-Minor) through the forecast period.

Solar Wind

.24 hr Summary...
Solar wind parameters, measured at the ACE spacecraft, reflected
primarily a stable to slightly disturbed solar wind environment. IMF Bt
held steady near 8 nT for the majority of the period, while Bz varied
slightly between +/- 5 nT. Phi angle remained mostly negative (towards)
with a brief oscillation to the positive (away) sector near the end of
the period. Solar wind speeds began the period near 430 km/s before
steadily decreasing to end of period values near 380 km/s.

The solar wind environment are expected to remain enhanced over the next
three days (29-31 Jan). Additional agitations in the solar wind
parameters are possible on days two and three, with solar wind speeds
potentially reaching the 450 to 550 km/s range.


.24 hr Summary...
The geomagnetic field was mostly quiet during the period.

Quiet to unsettled levels are expected for the remainder of day one (29
Jan). Conditions are then expected to increase by days two and three
(30-31 Jan) to quiet to minor storm levels (NOAA Scale G1) as influence
from the southern crown polar coronal hole is expected to intensify. is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.