477
FXXX12 KWNP 081231
DAYDIS

:Product: Forecast Discussion
:Issued: 2024 May 08 1230 UTC
# Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
# Product description and SWPC contact on the Web
# http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/wwire.html
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#             Forecast Discussion
#
Solar Activity

.24 hr Summary...
Solar activity reached very high levels. Region 3663 (N25W64,
Fkc/beta-gamma-delta) edged closer to the western limb, making accurate
analysis of its magnetic structure difficult. However, based on its
recent activity, it would appear the delta configuration still remains.
This region produced several M-class flares and an X1.0 flare at 08/0141
UTC.

Region 3664 (S20W15, Fkc/beta-gamma-delta) also maintained its delta
configuration and had significant growth in its intermediate and
trailer spots. It is now the largest of the regions, with an overall
areal coverage over 1,000 millionths. This region also produced several
M-class flares and an X1.0 flare at 08/0509 UTC. The X flare was
accompanied by Type II and IV sweeps and a 10.7 cm radio burst. A halo
CME associated with this event is first visible in C2 imagery near
08/0600 UTC. Preliminary modeling efforts showed an arrival time early
on 11 May. However, additional analysis and modeling are ongoing.

The remaining spotted active regions were stable or in gradual decay and
largely inactive.


.Forecast...
Solar activity is expected to persist at moderate to high levels over
08-10 May, with M-class flares (R1-R2/Minor-Moderate) expected and a
high chance for X-class flares (R3/Strong), due to the continued flare
potential of Regions 3663 and 3664.

Energetic Particle

.24 hr Summary...
The greater than 2 MeV electron flux was at normal to moderate levels
and the greater than 10 MeV proton flux was steady at background levels.

.Forecast...
The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to continue at normal
to moderate levels over 08-10 May. There is a chance for the greater
than 10 MeV proton flux to reach S1 (Minor) storm levels over 08-10 May
due to the flare potential of Regions 3663 and 3664.

Solar Wind

.24 hr Summary...
The solar wind environment reflected the continued, but waning influence
of a positive polarity CH HSS. Total field strength was steady near 5
nT, the Bz component had no significant southward deflections, Phi was
in a positive orientation, and solar wind speeds steadily decreased from
near 500 km/s to 450 km/s.

.Forecast...
Elevated solar wind conditions are expected to diminish over 08 May as
CH HSS influence subsides. On 09 May, possible enhancements are likely,
following the anticipated glancing effects of a CME that departed the
Sun on 06 May. Conditions are then expected to return to near nominal
levels by the end of the period.

Geospace

.24 hr Summary...
The geomagnetic field was at quiet levels.

.Forecast...
Waning CH HSS influences are expected to further diminish through 08
May, bringing mostly quiet to unsettled conditions. By mid to late day
on 08 May and into 09 May, unsettled to active conditions are possible
as glancing effects from a CME that departed the Sun on 06 May are
anticipated to influence Earth. By 10 May, conditions are expected to
return to mostly quiet levels, with a chance for isolated unsettled
levels.