Routine Space Environment Product (Daily)
Issued by NWS

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000
FXXX12 KWNP 211230
DAYDIS

:Product: Forecast Discussion
:Issued: 2017 Jan 21 1230 UTC
# Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
# Product description and SWPC contact on the Web
# http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/wwire.html
#
#             Forecast Discussion
#
Solar Activity

.24 hr Summary...
Solar activity reached low levels this period as Region 2628 (N11E42,
Dai/beta) produced multiple C-class flares.  The largest was an
impulsive C9/1f flare at 21/0726 UTC.  Region 2627 (N05E21, Dai/beta)
was also responsible for B-class flare activity.  Slight to moderate
growth was observed in the intermediate area of both regions.  Regions
2625 (N01W42, Hax/alpha) and 2626 (N08W31, Hsx/alpha) were relatively
quiet and stable.  No Earth-directed CMEs were observed.

.Forecast...
Solar activity is likely to be low with a chance for M-class (R1-R2,
Minor-Moderate) flares over the next three days due to an increase in
flare activity from Regions 2627 and 2628 as they continue to develop.

Energetic Particle

.24 hr Summary...
The greater than 2 MeV electron flux was at moderate to high levels with
a maximum flux of 2,979 pfu observed at 20/1650 UTC.  The greater than
10 MeV proton flux continued at background levels.

.Forecast...
The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to reach moderate to
high levels on days one through three (21-23 Jan) following elevated
solar wind speeds associated with a positive polarity CH.  The greater
than 10 MeV proton flux is expected to remain at background levels.

Solar Wind

.24 hr Summary...
Solar wind parameters were in decline through the period as effects from
a positive polarity CH HSS slowly waned.  Solar wind speed decreased
from approximately 570 km/s to near 490 km/s.  Total field ranged from 3
nT to 6 nT while the Bz component varied between +/-4 nT.  Phi angle was
oriented in a predominantly positive (away) sector.

.Forecast...
Solar wind parameters are expected to continue to gradually decline to
nominal levels over the next three days (21-23 Jan) as CH HSS influence
subsides.

Geospace

.24 hr Summary...
The geomagnetic field was at quiet to unsettled levels due to persistent
CH HSS effects.

.Forecast...
The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels on
days one and two (21-22 Jan) as CH HSS influence slowly tapers off.
Mostly quiet conditions are expected on day three (23 Jan).



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