Routine Space Environment Product (Daily)
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000
FXXX12 KWNP 280031
DAYDIS

:Product: Forecast Discussion
:Issued: 2014 Nov 28 0030 UTC
# Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
# Product description and SWPC contact on the Web
# http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/wwire.html
#
#             Forecast Discussion
#
Solar Activity

.24 hr Summary...
Solar activity was at low levels through the period with Region 2222
(S20E59, Dai/beta-gamma) producing the majority of the C-flare activity.
The largest flare of the period was a C8/1f at 27/0047 UTC.  Slight to
moderate growth was observed in Region 2222.  Slight growth was observed
in the smaller intermediate spots of Regions 2216 (S13W25, Cai/beta) and
2219 (N04W21, Dai/beta-gamma).  New flux emerged in the NW quadrant and
was numbered as Region 2223 (N17W11, Bxo/beta).  The rest of the spotted
regions were either stable or in decay.  No Earth-directed coronal mass
ejections were observed during the period.

.Forecast...
Solar activity is expected to be at low levels with a chance for an
M-class flare (R1-R2/Minor-Moderate) during the period (28-30 Nov),
particularly from Region 2222 based on its further development.

Energetic Particle

.24 hr Summary...
The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit was at
normal to moderate levels.  The greater than 10 MeV proton flux was at
background levels.

.Forecast...
The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to continue at normal
to moderate levels for the forecast period (28-30 Nov).  The greater
than 10 MeV proton flux is expected to continue at background levels
(Below S1-Minor) for the forecast period (28-30 Nov).

Solar Wind

.24 hr Summary...
Solar wind parameters indicated a solar sector boundary crossing at
approximately 27/0241 UTC into a negative (towards) sector followed by a
relative minor increase in solar wind speed from approximately 300 km/s
to around 400 km/s.  Total field ranged from 2 nT to 10 nT while the Bz
component was variable between +10 nT and -8 nT.

.Forecast...
Solar wind parameters are likely going to stay slightly enhanced through
early on day one (28 Nov).  A return to nominal levels is expected on
days two through three (29-30 Nov).

Geospace

.24 hr Summary...
The geomagnetic field was at quiet to unsettled levels.

.Forecast...
The geomagnetic field is expected to be at mostly quiet levels (Below
G1-Minor) for the forecast period (28-30 Nov).


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