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FXXX12 KWNP 270030

:Product: Forecast Discussion
:Issued: 2015 Mar 27 0030 UTC
# Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
# Product description and SWPC contact on the Web
#             Forecast Discussion
Solar Activity

.24 hr Summary...
Solar activity remained at low levels. There were several weak C-class
flares observed, the largest a C2 x-ray event observed at 26/0021 UTC
from Region 2305 (S08E05, Cki/beta-gamma). The region exhibited
consolidation within its trailer and intermediate spots and appears to
have lost its delta magnetic configuration. New Region 2314 (S23E66,
Cro/beta) emerged on the disk as a simple bi-polar group. The remaining
regions on the disk were quiet and stable. No Earth directed CMEs were
detected with available imagery and observation data.

Solar activity is expected to be at low levels with a chance for an
M-class (R1-Minor) flare for the forecast period (27-29 Mar).

Energetic Particle

.24 hr Summary...
The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit reached
high levels once again with a maximum flux of 3,959 pfu at 26/1500
UTC. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux at geosynchronous orbit
returned to background values.

The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit is forecast
to remain at moderate to high levels while the greater than 10 MeV
proton flux at geosynchronous orbit is expected to be at or near
background conditions (Below S1-Minor) for days one through three (27-29

Solar Wind

.24 hr Summary...
The solar wind environment at the ACE spacecraft reflected the waning
influence of a high speed solar wind stream. Wind speed decreased
steadily through the period from 500 km/s to near 425 km/s. Bt ranged
from 1-6 nT while the Bz component of the IMF varied between +/-4 nT.
Phi began the period in a positive (away) orientation and remained so
through about 26/1330 UTC when a solar sector boundary change (SSBC) to
a negative (towards) occurred. Phi angle remained predominately negative
through the end of the period.

A co-rotating interaction region (CIR) in advance of a negative polarity
coronal hole high speed stream (CH HSS) is expected to influence ACE
solar wind signatures beginning midday on day one (27 Mar). On days two
and three (28-29 Mar), the CH HSS wind structure is expected to become
geoeffective with wind speeds approaching 700 km/s expected.


.24 hr Summary...
The geomagnetic field was at quiet to unsettled levels.

The geomagnetic field is expected to range from quiet to isolated active
levels on day one (27 Mar). A CIR is expected to impact the field midday
on 27 Mar. This CIR is in advance of a CH HSS associated with a negative
polarity extension off the southern crown. Unsettled to minor storm
conditions are expected on days two and three (28-29 Mar) as effects
from the CH HSS impact Earths magnetic field. is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.