Flood Potential Outlook
Issued by NWS Caribou, ME

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FGUS71 KCAR 281501

1101 AM EDT Fri Apr 28 2017


This is the ninth spring flood potential outlook for 2017, issued
by the National Weather Service in Caribou, Maine. This outlook is
for northern, central, and Downeast Maine for the two-week period
of April 27 to May 11, 2017. This outlook is the final issuance of
this spring season.

The spring flood potential for open water flooding is near normal
for late April. The threat for ice jams has passed for the season.


The last couple of weeks have remained fairly cool and active.
April as a whole has averaged warmer than normal however, with
most locations` monthly temperatures 1 to 3 degrees above normal.
We have received 1 to 2 inches of rainfall over the past few
weeks, and many areas are now 0.50 to 1.50 inches over their
normal April rainfall.

Although relatively mild weather will continue into the weekend, a
cool down is expected as a couple of cold fronts will cross the
region Saturday into Sunday. This cooler pattern looks to persist
as we head into the middle part of the month; although there will
be occasional warmer periods, persistent upper troughiness will
keep temperatures near or below normal.

The wet pattern is expected to continue as well. Several rounds
of precipitation will occur over the next week to 10 days. The
most significant of these will be in the Tuesday to Wednesday
timeframe, when rainfall amounts up to three-quarters of an inch
will be possible. Some of the long range models are indicating
there could be another storm system with steady rainfall late next
week, but this is not certain.

The official 6 to 14 day outlook from the Climate Prediction
Center, effective for May 3 to May 11, supports the above
thinking, calling for cooler and wetter than normal conditions
across the entire region.


Most areas now have no snow on the ground, with only far northern
Maine still reporting a bit of snow back in the woods. The more
protected locations in the higher elevations still have several
inches of snow on the ground, but this cover is highly localized.


In spite of the rainy conditions that have lingered through the
month, near surface soil moisture remains near to slightly above
normal. The latest Palmer Drought Severity Index, which measures
soil moisture in the longer term, is actually showing abnormally
dry conditions across portions of Downeast Maine. Elsewhere, this
parameter is near normal.

Taking a look at groundwater wells, courtesy of the USGS, we see
near normal groundwater levels Downeast, with just one well in the
Acadia region reporting below normal conditions. Areas from Bangor
north to Fort Kent are reading above to much above normal.


River flows are mainly above to much above normal across the
state. One or two river gages indicate near normal flow, but these
are the exception as opposed to the rule. Many waterways are still
rising or just now reaching their peak after the recent rainfall.
They should recede through the weekend, but rises will likely
occur later next week after the mid-week precipitation.

No ice cover exists on any rivers in our area.


Based on the above information, the spring flood potential for
open water flooding is near normal across all of northern,
central, and Downeast Maine. River flows are currently above
normal in many locations, but they will recede heading into early
next week. Although more rain is expected thereafter, abnormally
heavy rainfall is not expected. What little snow still exists is
only several inches deep at best and should continue to slowly
melt through the period. Therefore, any additional river rises
will be slow and minor. No flooding is anticipated at this time.

It is important to remember that very heavy rainfall can bring
flooding at any time of the year, even in areas that don`t have a
significant snowpack.

This is the final spring flood potential outlook for the 2017
season. This product will resume in January 2018.



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