Extended Streamflow Prediction
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Water Supply Outlook                                             March 6, 2015

February finally brought some above-normal precipitation to the the mountains of
New Mexico and the plains of both Colorado and New Mexico. The extreme
headwaters of the Arkansas (above Canon City) were not so fortunate and snow
pack there decreased somewhat relative to the normal.  This has lowered this
month`s forecasts on the mainstem of the Arkansas River.

The snowpack in the headwaters of the Arkansas River has lost a little relative
to long-term medians. Snowpack conditions remain below-normal along the Rio Grande
divide closer to New Mexico.  However conditions have shifted upward relative to
the long-term normal.  Further south in New Mexico, snow pack water equivalents
have edged upward and are above long-term medians.

Seasonal runoff (April-September) is forecast to be 97 percent-of-average for
the Arkansas River at Salida and 342 percent-of-average below Pueblo Reservoir.
Runoff from Grape Creek, and the Cucharas and Huerfano Rivers is forecast to
be 96, 89, and 89 percent-of-average, respectively. Chalk Creek is forecast to
provide 96 percent-of-average runoff.  Runoff from the Purgatoire River is
forecast to be 81 percent-of-average.

In New Mexico, seasonal runoff (March-June) from Rayado and Ponil Creeks is
forecast to be 86 and 88 percent-of-average, respectively. The Vermejo and
Cimarron Rivers are forecast to be 103 and 101 percent-of-average.

Water-year-to-date precipitation (October-December) in the mountain headwaters of
Colorado ranges from slightly above normal to below normal.   Reports range from
163 percent-of-average at Canon City to 79 percent-of-average at Trinchera.
Snowpack above Salida, as measured by (NRCS) SNOTEL sites, is above-average with
108 percent-of-median snowpack. In the Purgatoire River basin, the snow pack is
lower at 73 percent-of-median.

New Mexico`s water-year-to-date precipitation is near average but an isolated
station is above-average. Reports range from 183 percent-of-average near Eagle
Nest to 87 percent-of-average near Raton. Snowpack in the Canadian River
basin is about 82 percent-of-median for this time of year.

Reservoir storage in the Arkansas River system is 111 percent-of-average above
Pueblo Reservoir and 48 percent-of-average below.  The upper reservoirs are at
132 percent of last year`s total.  The lower reservoirs are at 126 percent of last
year`s total.

The Climate Prediction Center (CPC) issues three-month temperature and
precipitation outlooks for the nation.  The outlooks for March through May call
for equal chances of above-normal, below-normal, or near-normal temperatures
in the Arkansas and Canadian River headwaters in Colorado and New Mexico.
CPC`s precipitation outlook calls for increased chances (33%-40%) of above-
median precipitation in the mountains of southeastern Colorado and northeastern
New Mexico.

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