Fire Weather Outlook Discussion
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000
FNUS28 KWNS 302037
FWDD38

DAY 3-8 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0336 PM CDT SUN AUG 30 2015

VALID 011200Z - 071200Z

MEAN MID-LEVEL TROUGHING WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE NWRN CONUS THROUGH
MUCH OF THIS WEEK INTO NEXT WEEKEND...WITH EMBEDDED DISTURBANCES
LOCALLY ENHANCING AREAS OF TROPOSPHERIC FLOW/SFC WINDS. WHERE RH
VALUES BECOME LOW PERIPHERAL TO THE TROUGHING PATTERN...ELEVATED
FIRE-WEATHER CONDITIONS MAY ENSUE. THIS IS PARTICULARLY THE CASE
FROM CNTRL/NRN NV TO E-CNTRL WY ON D4/WED WHEN LOCALIZED CRITICAL
CONDITIONS MAY ALSO OCCUR...IN TANDEM WITH AMPLIFICATION OF THE
TROUGH. HOWEVER...DISPERSION AMONGST MODEL SOLUTIONS REGARDING THE
EVOLUTION OF INDIVIDUAL DISTURBANCES AND THE STRENGTH OF
LOW/MID-LEVEL FLOW YIELD UNCERTAINTY IN THE POTENTIAL FOR CRITICAL
FIRE-WEATHER CONDITIONS. FURTHERMORE...THE BULK OF MODEL SOLUTIONS
SUGGEST THAT NO MORE THAN MARGINALLY STRONG WINDS WOULD ALIGN WITH
LOW RH. AS SUCH...CRITICAL AREAS HAVE NOT BEEN INCLUDED.

ADDITIONAL INSTANCES OF ELEVATED FIRE-WEATHER CONDITIONS CANNOT BE
RULED OUT ACROSS OTHER AREAS FROM THE CNTRL/NRN GREAT BASIN TO THE
CNTRL/NRN ROCKIES THROUGH THE D3/TUE-D8/SUN PERIOD -- PARTICULARLY
FOR MIDDLE/LATTER PARTS OF THIS WEEK. HOWEVER...VARIABILITY AMONGST
MODEL SOLUTIONS...COUPLED WITH LITTLE POTENTIAL FOR CRITICALLY
STRONG WINDS TO COMBINE WITH LOW RH AS DEPICTED BY THE BULK OF THESE
SOLUTIONS...PRECLUDE ADDITIONAL PROBABILISTIC DELINEATIONS AT THIS
TIME. HOWEVER...INTRODUCTION OF THESE PROBABILITIES MAY BE NEEDED IN
SUBSEQUENT OUTLOOKS -- PARTICULARLY ACROSS PARTS OF THE CNTRL GREAT
BASIN -- IF INDIVIDUAL-MODEL RUN-TO-RUN CONSISTENCY AND MULTI-MODEL
CONSENSUS WERE TO CONVERGE ON ENHANCED FIRE-WEATHER RISK AREAS.

..COHEN.. 08/30/2015

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/FIRE FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...



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