Fire Weather Outlook Discussion
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FNUS28 KWNS 232123
FWDD38

DAY 3-8 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0423 PM CDT THU OCT 23 2014

VALID 251200Z - 311200Z

IN THE MID LEVELS...A TROUGH IS FORECAST TO MOVE ASHORE FROM THE E
PACIFIC THIS WEEKEND AND ADVANCE EWD INTO NEXT WEEK. ENHANCED
TROPOSPHERIC FLOW/STRONG SFC WINDS RELATED TO THE TROUGH WILL AFFECT
PORTIONS OF THE WRN STATES AND MAY COMBINE WITH DIURNALLY REDUCED
SFC RH TO SUPPORT SOME MODEST FIRE-WEATHER RISK. THIS WOULD
ESPECIALLY BE THE CASE WHERE DOWNSLOPE FLOW BOLSTERS BOUNDARY-LAYER
WARMING/DRYING IN AREAS OF DRY FUELS FROM PORTIONS OF THE CNTRL
GREAT BASIN TO WY FOR D3/SAT AND D4/SUN. HOWEVER...DIFFERENCES
AMONGST MODEL SOLUTIONS REGARDING THE DEGREE OF BOUNDARY-LAYER
DRYING EXIST. FURTHERMORE...MANY MODEL SOLUTIONS SUGGEST THAT...IN
THE ABSENCE OF A WARMER/DRIER AIR MASS...CRITICALLY LOW RH VALUES
WILL BE UNLIKELY. AREAS OF ABOVE-NORMAL PRECIPITATION DURING THE
PAST MONTH MAY ALSO MITIGATE THE FIRE-WEATHER RISK. AS
SUCH...PROBABILISTIC DELINEATIONS HAVE NOT BEEN INCLUDED AT THIS
TIME.

MID-LEVEL RIDGING OVER PORTIONS OF THE WRN CONUS WILL BE ASSOCIATED
WITH WARMING/DRYING SFC CONDITIONS ACROSS PARTS OF SRN CA INCLUDING
THE COASTAL RANGES AND ADJACENT FOOTHILLS FOR NEXT WEEK. SOME MODEL
GUIDANCE INDICATES OCCASIONALLY ENHANCED SFC WINDS FOR D5/MON INTO
D8/THU ACROSS THE SRN-CA COASTAL RANGES/ADJACENT FOOTHILLS...WHICH
COULD BE ACCOMPANIED BY SOME FIRE-WEATHER RISK. HOWEVER...WITH THE
BULK OF DETERMINISTIC/ENSEMBLE MODEL SOLUTIONS INDICATING THE
ABSENCE OF A TIGHT SFC PRESSURE GRADIENT / A LACK OF STRONG SFC
WINDS...PROBABILISTIC DELINEATIONS HAVE NOT BEEN INCLUDED.

..COHEN.. 10/23/2014

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/FIRE FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...




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