Fire Weather Outlook Discussion
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FNUS21 KWNS 281627
FWDDY1

DAY 1 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1026 AM CST FRI NOV 28 2014

VALID 281700Z - 291200Z


...NERN AND E-CNTRL NM...TX PANHANDLE...FAR WRN OK PANHANDLE...
PRIMARY CHANGE TO THE ONGOING ELEVATED RISK AREA WAS TO SHIFT
SLIGHTLY NWD TO INCLUDE ADDITIONAL PORTIONS OF THE NWRN TX PANHANDLE
AND FAR WRN OK. LATEST FORECAST MODEL GUIDANCE FOCUSES AXIS OF
STRONGEST WLY WINDS ACROSS THESE AREAS...WHERE SUSTAINED WIND SPEEDS
OF 15-20 MPH /HIGHER GUSTS/ WILL BE POSSIBLE. THIS AREA ALSO IS
LOCATED WITHIN A DEARTH OF PRECIPITATION RECENTLY
OBSERVED...ESPECIALLY COMPARED TO AREAS FARTHER S TOWARDS THE TX S
PLAINS.

...SIERRA FRONT OF NWRN NV...
A BELT OF STRONG MIDLEVEL WLYS ACCOMPANYING AN AMPLIFYING PAC NW
TROUGH WILL OVERSPREAD THE NRN GREAT BASIN TODAY...CONTRIBUTING TO
STRENGTHENING BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS IN THE LEE OF THE SIERRA ACROSS
NWRN NV. 12 REV SOUNDING SAMPLED 50 KT AROUND 2 KM AGL...AND SFC
OBSERVATIONS FROM THIS MORNING REFLECT INCREASING WIND SPEEDS NEAR/E
OF RNO. DOWNSLOPE-ENHANCED DRYING/WARMING COUPLED WITH THE STRONG
WINDS WILL RESULT IN ELEVATED CONDITIONS AS SUSTAINED WIND SPEEDS
APPROACH 20 MPH AMIDST RH VALUES NEAR 10 PERCENT AND TEMPERATURES
WARMING INTO THE LOW 60S F...PERHAPS YIELDING LOCALIZED EXCEEDANCE
OF CRITICAL THRESHOLDS AT TIMES.

..ROGERS.. 11/28/2014

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0251 AM CST FRI NOV 28 2014/

...SYNOPSIS...
SEVERAL WEAK SHORTWAVE IMPULSES WILL TRACK SOUTHEAST OVER THE
CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS AS THE WESTERN RIDGE BEGINS TO
DEAMPLIFY. AT THE SURFACE...A LEE TROUGH WILL EXTEND SOUTHWARD FROM
EASTERN CO INTO WEST TX. BREEZY WINDS AND ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURES
WILL LEAD TO ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ACROSS PARTS OF THE
SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS DURING THE AFTERNOON.

...PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST AND E-CENTRAL NM INTO THE TX
PANHANDLE/SOUTH PLAINS...

DOWNSLOPE W/SW WINDS WILL DEVELOP ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE SURFACE
LEE TROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES WILL WARM INTO THE MID 70S
TO NEAR 80 DEGREES...NEARLY 20 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF
YEAR. AS THIS OCCURS...BOUNDARY-LAYER MIXING COMBINED WITH BREEZY
DOWNSLOPE WINDS WILL LEAD TO RH VALUES FALLING INTO THE 15-20
PERCENT RANGE. SOME SPOTTY AREAS OF 8-15 PERCENT RH VALUES WILL BE
POSSIBLE. W/SW SURFACE WINDS AROUND 15 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 25 MPH ARE
EXPECTED. WHILE SPOTTY/BRIEF CRITICAL CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE...A
LACK OF MORE WIDESPREAD CRITICALLY LOW RH VALUES AND WIND SPEEDS
GREATER THAN 20 MPH WILL PRECLUDE AN UPGRADE TO CRITICAL AT THIS
TIME.

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/FIRE FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...




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