Fire Weather Outlook Discussion
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FNUS21 KWNS 111545
FWDDY1

Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0944 AM CST Mon Dec 11 2017

Valid 111700Z - 121200Z

The ongoing forecast is on track with no changes needed.  Gusty
offshore winds will continue in southern California - especially in
terrain-favored areas of Santa Barbara, Ventura, and Los Angeles
counties where 30+ mph wind gusts are possible.  Farther east, a
broad area of elevated fire weather conditions will develop by
mid-afternoon, with critical thresholds (25-35 mph and 12-15% RH)
being exceeded briefly in northeastern Colorado and vicinity before
sunset.

See the previous discussion below for more information.

..Cook.. 12/11/2017

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0136 AM CST Mon Dec 11 2017/

...Synopsis...
Mid-level ridging will persist across the western United States,
with a deep trough found across the East. A short-wave trough moving
through the mid-level flow across the East will help drive a surface
cold front south through the Plains.

...Southern California...

Offshore winds will continue through Monday and Monday night, albeit
not as strong as in previous days. Coincident with this, warm
temperatures and a dry airmass will support minimum
relative-humidity values falling into the single digits and teens
across much of the area. Additionally, overnight recovery should
remain poor, leaving little reprieve from the low relative humidity.
The result will be elevated fire-weather conditions.

...Central United States...

Temperatures will quickly warm into the 60s and 70s ahead of a
surface cold front moving southward through the Plains on Monday.
Additionally, a very dry airmass in place as a result of several
days of northerly winds across the Plains and Gulf of Mexico
scouring out most of what little moisture existed. The dry airmass
is borne out in evening (00Z) soundings across the Plains where
near-record low precipitable-water values for this time of year are
observed. The result will be warm temperatures and relative-humidity
values falling to near-critical to critical levels. These warm, dry
conditions will combine with winds in the 10-20 mph range to result
in elevated to locally critical fire-weather conditions across the
region. Stronger winds may exist across northern portions of the
highlighted area, but cold-air advection behind the front will allow
for the relative humidity to increase, slightly offsetting the
impacts of stronger winds.

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...

$$


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