Fire Weather Outlook Discussion
Issued by NWS
FNUS22 KWNS 241816
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0116 PM CDT Fri Mar 24 2017
Valid 251200Z - 261200Z
Introduced a critical fire weather area for portions of southwestern
New Mexico and southeastern Arizona for this update. Surface winds
will increase in response to increasing mid-level flow associated
with a trough approaching the area from the west. This will result
in areas of critical west-southwesterly surface flow (20-25 mph)
along with RH values falling into the single digits especially along
the international border area. After coordination with local
offices in the affected area (ABQ, EPZ, TWC), decided on a critical
upgrade in areas most likely to experience the strongest surface
flow amidst the dry airmass.
See previous outlook discussion below for more information.
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0310 AM CDT Fri Mar 24 2017/
A negatively titled mid-level trough will continue to lift northeast
from the south-central United States toward the Great Lakes. As this
occurs, a second negatively tilted trough will begin to approach the
south-central United States. At the surface, one surface low
(originally over southwest Missouri) will continue to fill as it
slowly moves northeast. To the southwest, a new surface cyclone
should develop in response to the next mid-level trough approaching
the central United States.
...Southeast Arizona, Much of central and southern New Mexico, and
far West Texas...
Southerly surface winds will develop in response to the next in a
series of mid-level troughs approaching the area. Given strong
heating, the lack of widespread rainfall, and little confidence in
higher moisture-content air from the Gulf of Mexico reaching this
area, afternoon relative-humidity values will fall into the 7-15%
range. This dry boundary layer, coupled with increasing surface
winds to between 15-20 mph, will result in widespread elevated
fire-weather conditions. At this time, confidence in surface winds
in excess of 20 mph over a large area is too low to warrant critical
delineation. However, if confidence increases in a corridor or area
where surface winds are in excess of 20 mph, critical delineation
would be needed.
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...