Hydrometeorological Discussion
Issued by NWS West Gulf RFC

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AGUS74 KFWR 281558
1056 AM CDT SAT MAR 28 2015

                   VALID MARCH 28 THROUGH APRIL 2


                  ...METEOROLOGICAL DISCUSSION...
Cool and dry conditions will continue across the WGRFC region for
the next day or so, before the next series of systems moves into
the area early next week. An upper level ridge is currently
dominating areas to the west while a large upper trough resides
over the eastern third of the U.S. This has placed most of the
WGRFC in a northwest flow pattern, which is ultimately contributing
to the nice conditions across the region. By tomorrow, the upper
trough will begin to move eastward, and the upper ridge will begin
to weaken. Thereafter, an upper level disturbance and weak cold
front, are expected to move across North Texas....mainly tomorrow
night/Monday morning. Showers and thunderstorms are expected to
impact areas along and east of I-20, however this should not
cause any issues across any of the river basins. Precipitation
amounts of 0.25 inch or less are expected with this activity.

By early next week, a new storm is forecast to develop over Baja
California. Thereafter, this system is forecast to move eastward,
and is expected to bring another chance for rain to parts of New
Mexico, southern Colorado, and southwest Texas...later Monday into
Tuesday morning. A better chance for showers and thunderstorms
exists for the  remainder of the WGRFC area....mainly within the
Tuesday-Thursday time frame.

                    ...PRECIPITATION FORECAST...
For Today into Sunday morning, no significant Mean Areal
Precipitation (MAP) amounts are forecast for the WGRFC area.

For Sunday into Monday morning, MAP amounts of 0.25 inch or
less are forecast for portions of extreme northeast Texas.

For Monday into Tuesday morning, MAP amounts of 0.25 inch or
less are forecast for portions of extreme northeast Texas.

For Tuesday into Thursday morning, MAP amounts of 0.50 to 1.00
inch are forecast for portions of southeast Texas. Lesser amounts
are forecast for the eastern two-thirds of the forecast area.

Moderate or worse drought conditions continue across parts of New
Mexico and Texas. In Texas, about a third of the state is
experiencing moderate or worse drought (36%), and about 14% has
extreme to exceptional drought conditions. In New Mexico, about two
thirds of the state is experiencing moderate or worse drought
(62%). Lake levels in these extreme drought areas are at or near
historical lows for this time of year. Recent precipitation events
have brought some drought relief, with no drought remaining over
deep south, east central and southeast Texas into western Louisiana.
The rainfall which is forecast the next five days over the WGRFC
area will not be heavy enough to create new or additional runoff.

                     ...HYDROLOGIC DISCUSSION...
...Sabine Basin...
...Moderate Flooding...
Toledo Bend Reservoir releases have decreased again this morning,
so falling stages can be expected to work their way downstream on
the lower Sabine River. Moderate flood conditions will continue
for one more day at Bon Wier (BWRT2). Minor flooding will continue
into the coming week and at Deweyville (DWYT2) into the coming week.

...Neches Basin...
...Minor Flooding...
Widespread minor flooding continues throughout the Neches and
Angelina River mainstems and associated bayous. Although minor
flood conditions will continue through this week, all points have
crested and are slowly receding. Sam Rayburn Reservoir has resumed
power generation that will allow flood storage to be slowly
evacuated. Lake Steinhagen releases will continue to hold near
20,000 cfs until Sam Rayburn Lake is able to completely evacuate the
flood pool, likely via generation. This process is expected to take
several weeks.

...Trinity Basin...
...Higher Flow Non-Flood Forecasts...
Bankfull flooding is still occurring in the lower Trinity at
Liberty (LBYT2) and Moss Bluff (MBFT2) but are in recession with
no significant rainfall in the forecast..

...Remainder of WGRFC Basins...
Steady to falling stages are expected in most locations because of
a period of dry weather. Soils are very wet over east and
southeast Texas after the recent rainfall episode. However, some
additional reduction in soil moisture is expected in the next few
days prior to a return of rainfall to the area. Rainfall should not
be heavy enough over the next 5 days to produce significant runoff.

The following URLs (all lower case) provide additional graphical
information on current and forecast hydrologic conditions, past and
future precipitation, and drought and climate forecasts.  This
information is provided by a variety of National Weather Service,
NOAA, and private sector entities.

For specific information on river conditions, refer to the AHPS
pages from the local NWS offices at:

The Flood Potential Outlook can be viewed on our webpage at:

The West Gulf River Forecast Center is now on Facebook:

National Precipitation Analysis:

The forecast rainfall amounts (QPF) can be viewed on our webpage at:

The US Drought Assessment:

The latest on Reservoir Information for Texas:



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