Hydrometeorological Discussion
Issued by NWS West Gulf RFC

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AGUS74 KFWR 231554
HMDFWR
HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE...WEST GULF RFC...FORT WORTH TX
1054 AM CDT SAT SEP 23 2017

               VALID SEPTEMBER 23 THROUGH SEPTEMBER 28

...WIDESPREAD RAIN FORECAST FOR WESTERN TEXAS AND EASTERN NEW
MEXICO THROUGH MID NEXT WEEK...

                   ...METEOROLOGICAL DISCUSSION...

Although dry weather remains in the forecast for central and eastern
Texas today, a big change in the weather is in store, as a strong
upper level low pressure system now over the Intermountain West
continues to move into the WGRFC area. Southwesterly flow aloft
ahead of this system has already brought rain showers to the
mountains of southern Colorado into New Mexico. Completely
unrelated, a few isolated showers were also noted along coastal
Texas counties over the past 24 hours.

A cold front associated with the system moving in from the west will
continue across New Mexico today. This front will move eastward very
slowly over the coming week, and interact with tropical moisture. For
today, expect a marginal risk for severe weather in New Mexico, the
Panhandle of Texas into western Texas. This weather will spread
eastward tomorrow resulting in widespread showers and thunderstorms
with embedded heavy downpours. Also, rain and snow showers will
continue in the mountains of southern Colorado.

Any heavy rain will result in the potential for flash flooding
to eastern New Mexico and western Texas starting today and
continuing well into the coming week.

The tropics continue to remain active with Hurricane Maria
remaining a Category 3 storm on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane
Wind Scale and continues to move towards the NNW at 8 mph. At
this time, this system is not expected to impact any portion of
the WGRFC region.

                    ...PRECIPITATION FORECAST...
For Today into Sunday morning, Mean Areal Precipitation (MAP)
amounts of 1.00 to 3.00 inch are forecast for portions of eastern
New Mexico and the northwestern Texas Panhandle. MAP amounts of
0.25 to 1.00 inch are forecast for portions of far western Texas
and southern Colorado.

For Sunday into Monday morning, MAP amounts of 0.25 to 2.00 inches
are forecast for most of the western third of Texas and for far
eastern New Mexico.

For Monday into Tuesday morning, MAP amounts of 0.25 to 1.00 inch
are forecast for most of the western third of Texas and for far
eastern New Mexico.

For Tuesday into Thursday morning, MAP amounts of 1.00 to 6.00
inches are forecast for west central to southwestern Texas. MAP
amounts of 0.25 to 1.00 inch are forecast for the rest of
southeastern New Mexico, and for portions central and south Texas.

The latest U.S. Drought Monitor for Texas shows the area considered
to be abnormally dry is around 21%, and only 3% of Texas is
experiencing moderate drought conditions. In New Mexico, none of
the state is experiencing abnormally dry conditions.  Drought relief
for western and southwestern Texas is likely with the forecast
rainfall. There will also be a potential for runoff and flash
flooding with this rainfall as well.

                     ...HYDROLOGIC DISCUSSION...
...Sabine Basin...
...Minor Flooding...
Toledo Bend Reservoir is currently releasing water for power
generation.  This is causing minor flood levels on the lower Sabine
River near Deweyville (DWYT2).

...Remainder of WGRFC Basins...
The remainder of the rivers across the WGRFC area are currently below
criteria levels.  No significant flooding is expected over the next
five days.

              ...SUPPLEMENTARY GRAPHICAL INFORMATION...
The following URLs (all lower case) provide additional graphical
information on current and forecast hydrologic conditions, past and
future precipitation, and drought and climate forecasts.  This
information is provided by a variety of National Weather Service,
NOAA, and private sector entities.

For specific information on river conditions, refer to the AHPS
pages from the local NWS offices at:
http://water.weather.gov/ahps/

The Flood Potential Outlook can be viewed on our webpage at:
http://www.weather.gov/wgrfc/wgrfcfop

The West Gulf River Forecast Center is now on Facebook:
http://www.facebook.com/NWSWestGulf

National Precipitation Analysis:
http://water.weather.gov/precip/

The forecast rainfall amounts (QPF) can be viewed on our webpage at:
http://www.weather.gov/wgrfc/wgrfcqpfpage

The US Drought Assessment:
http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/Drought

The latest on Reservoir Information for Texas:
http://www.waterdatafortexas.org/reservoirs/statewide

AUSTIN-SMITH


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