Hydrometeorological Discussion
Issued by NWS West Gulf RFC

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AGUS74 KFWR 301547
1047 AM CDT SAT JUL 30 2016

                   VALID JULY 30 THROUGH AUGUST 4


                  ...METEOROLOGICAL DISCUSSION...

A significant monsoonal moisture boost looks more likely across
western and north central New Mexico for much of next several days.
Scattered showers and thunderstorms with locally heavy rain are
forecast throughout the period.  Storm coverage is expected to
increase further early next week across all of western and central
New Mexico. Models still show the western half of the state will be
more favored for the more widespread, heavier rains, It looks like
the monsoon is finally kicking in for New Mexico!

Turning the attention further east into Texas, a TUTT trough over the
Lower Rio Grande Valley will drift northwest and become centered over
Southern Texas later today.  It will linger through Sunday as an
upper level disturbance moves northwest across northern and
southwestern Texas.  A slight drying trend is expected, so the
showers and thunderstorms should tend to dissipate before reaching
the I-35 corridor by early evening. Also for this afternoon, isolated
showers and thunderstorms are possible across Maverick county
near the Rio Grande.

Early into the middle of next week,  no near term rain events are
expected as the airmass dries significantly.  Late in the week, the
ridge shifts north a little allowing somewhat deeper moisture back
into Southern and Central Texas. This enables the seabreeze to
generate showers and thunderstorms for areas near the Coastal Plains.

Just beyond this forecast period, for next weekend, all models are
showing some type of tropical development from the disturbance
currently well east of the Lesser Antilles. Recent flights over the
area show a track west to the Yucatan, the Bay of Campeche, the
southwestern Gulf of Mexico and into Mexico.

                    ...PRECIPITATION FORECAST...
For Today into Sunday morning, Mean Areal Precipitation (MAP)
amounts of 0.25 of an inch are forecast for the upper Rio Grande
near Santa Fe.

For Sunday into Monday morning, MAP amounts of 0.25 to 0.50 of an
inch are forecast for the upper Rio Grande from Albuquerque north
into south central Colorado near Alamosa.

For Monday into Tuesday morning, MAP amounts of 0.25 to 0.50 of an
inch are forecast for the upper Rio Grande from Albuquerque north
into south central Colorado near Alamosa.

For Tuesday into Thursday morning, MAP amounts of 0.25 to 1.00 of an
inch are forecast for the upper Rio Grande near Santa Fe.

Soils continue to dry out across Texas due to the warm temperatures
and a lack of significant rainfall.  The U.S. Drought Monitor has
categorized Texas as 13% abnormally dry, with almost 2% in moderate
or greater drought. Over New Mexico, 77% of the state is abnormally
dry, and 16% remains in the moderate drought category. Some rainfall
is forecast over the next five days primarily over east and southeast
Texas and western Louisiana.  This will keep drought conditions from
developing in this region, but only minor runoff is anticipated.  The
lack of heavy rainfall elsewhere will lead to continued drying
through this forecast period and no significant runoff is expected.

                     ...HYDROLOGIC DISCUSSION...
...WGRFC Basins...
Higher than normal seasonal flows are occurring in the eastern
half of Texas. Some rain is expected across parts of the region over
the next five days, but no significant river flooding
is expected over this time frame.

The following URLs (all lower case) provide additional graphical
information on current and forecast hydrologic conditions, past and
future precipitation, and drought and climate forecasts.  This
information is provided by a variety of National Weather Service,
NOAA, and private sector entities.

For specific information on river conditions, refer to the AHPS
pages from the local NWS offices at:

The Flood Potential Outlook can be viewed on our webpage at:

The West Gulf River Forecast Center is now on Facebook:

National Precipitation Analysis:

The forecast rainfall amounts (QPF) can be viewed on our webpage at:

The US Drought Assessment:

The latest on Reservoir Information for Texas:



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