Hydrometeorological Discussion
Issued by NWS West Gulf RFC

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AGUS74 KFWR 301602
HMDFWR
HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE...WEST GULF RFC...FORT WORTH TX
1102 AM CDT SUN AUG 30 2015

                 VALID AUGUST 30 THROUGH SEPTEMBER 4

...LIGHT PRECIPITATION OVER NORTH CENTRAL TEXAS TODAY, TURNING
TOWARDS THE GULF COAST NEXT WEEK...

                  ...METEOROLOGICAL DISCUSSION...

The weak trough continues to allow for some weak low level showers
to continue over the north central part of Texas.  The large scale
upper level ridge remains firmly in place over the Rockies, with the
surface high centered over southern Colorado.  This will limit the
shower and monsoonal activity keeping the WGRFC domain dry over the
weekend.  There is the possibility of a stray shower in western New
Mexico or near the coast depending on the available moisture
streaming in from the south.

The first real chances for a change in pattern will come mid next
week as the GFS model proposes a TUTT low developing over the
western Gulf of Mexico.  This would allow more lift along the
coastal region which will generate some coastal showers early to mid
next week.  These showers should not push to far inland and no
flooding is expected.

                    ...PRECIPITATION FORECAST...
For Today into Monday morning, no significant Mean Areal
Precipitation (MAP) amounts are forecast for the WGRFC area.

For Monday into Tuesday morning, MAP amounts of 0.25 are forecasted
for the Gulf Coast.

For Tuesday into Wednesday morning, no significant MAP amounts are
forecast for the WGRFC area.

For Wednesday into Friday morning, MAP amounts of 0.25 are forecasted
for the Gulf Coast.

Drought conditions are returning to a good part of the southeast
two thirds of Texas.  Topsoil moisture has decreased during the
past month or so, thus it will take more rainfall for runoff to
occur. In Texas 41% of the state is abnormally dry, with 6% in
severe drought.  In New Mexico, 51% of New Mexico is also abnormally
dry.  The rainfall forecast over the next five days will not be heavy
enough to cause significant runoff.

                     ...HYDROLOGIC DISCUSSION...
...Trinity Basin...
Lower sustained releases from Lewisville and Grapevine have brought
Carrollton to just below action stage. These flood control
reservoirs, along with Ray Roberts, continue to slowly evacuate the
flood storage accumulated this past May and June during heavy
rainfall episodes.

...Remainder of WGRFC Basins...
All WGRFC rivers are below criteria. The precipitation forecast
over the next couple days is not expected to create significant
issues.  Dry soil conditions continue across most of Texas. Lake
levels continue to remain near conservation or within flood pools
for much of north and east Texas while most west Texas reservoirs
are well below conservation.



              ...SUPPLEMENTARY GRAPHICAL INFORMATION...
The following URLs (all lower case) provide additional graphical
information on current and forecast hydrologic conditions, past and
future precipitation, and drought and climate forecasts.  This
information is provided by a variety of National Weather Service,
NOAA, and private sector entities.

For specific information on river conditions, refer to the AHPS
pages from the local NWS offices at:
http://water.weather.gov/ahps/

The Flood Potential Outlook can be viewed on our webpage at:
http://www.srh.noaa.gov/wgrfc/?n=wgrfcfop

The West Gulf River Forecast Center is now on Facebook:
http://www.facebook.com/US.NationalWeatherService.WGRFC.gov

National Precipitation Analysis:
http://water.weather.gov/precip/

The forecast rainfall amounts (QPF) can be viewed on our webpage at:
http://www.srh.noaa.gov/wgrfc/?n=wgrfcqpfpage

The US Drought Assessment:
http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/Drought

The latest on Reservoir Information for Texas:
http://www.waterdatafortexas.org

GIARDINO


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