Hydrometeorological Discussion
Issued by NWS West Gulf RFC

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AGUS74 KFWR 261538
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HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE...WEST GULF RFC...FORT WORTH TX
1038 AM CDT WED APR 26 2017

                    VALID APRIL 26 THROUGH MAY 1

...A COUPLE OF STORMS WILL AFFECT THE WGRFC REGION TODAY AND OVER
THE WEEKEND...

                   ...METEOROLOGICAL DISCUSSION...

A more zonal upper air flow developed over the past 24 hours across
the WGRFC area.  Upper air disturbances have been rippling through
this flow, and the first trough generated some light precipitation
over central and northern New Mexico, the Texas panhandle and
Colorado the past 24 hours.  Around 1.00 inch of precipitation fell
near Tijeras NM into Wednesday morning.  Overnight one of the upper
disturbances deepened and moved across northern New Mexico into the
Texas panhandle.  As this occurred showers and thunderstorms
developed over north Texas and Oklahoma earlier this morning.
Rainfall amounts in Texas were around 1.00 inch just east of Dallas,
but heavier amounts were noted over Oklahoma.  This storm will move
across north Texas and Oklahoma through the day. While the heaviest
of the rain from this disturbance is forecast over eastern Oklahoma
and Arkansas, scattered showers and thunderstorms will continue to
develop across northeast Texas into northern Louisiana into this
afternoon or evening. The storm will exit the region by tonight and
the rain will end.

Thursday will be a mostly dry day across the WGRFC area.  But on
Friday a stronger upper air disturbance is forecast to develop over
western Colorado.  Along with some precipitation over the western
parts of the WGRFC area, showers and thunderstorms will likely
develop over Oklahoma Friday, which are forecast to move southward
into northern Texas by Saturday morning as this storm deepens.
On Saturday this storm will begin moving slowly east and by Sunday
morning this storm will be moving over Kansas.  Showers and
thunderstorms will continue Saturday into Sunday morning over
primarily northern and eastern Texas, with some locally heavy
rainfall possible.  Excessive rainfall is possible just north of
the Sabine River basin over extreme northeast Texas.  The WGRFC will
continue to monitor the progress of this storm system.  The
precipitation should move east during the day Sunday, and mostly dry
weather is expected from later Sunday into Monday morning.

                    ...PRECIPITATION FORECAST...
For Today into Thursday morning, Mean Areal Precipitation (MAP)
amounts of 0.25 to 0.50 of an inch are forecast for the northeast
quarter of Texas and the northern half of Louisiana.  The heaviest
rainfall is forecast northeast of the WGRFC area over Arkansas.  MAP
amounts of less than 0.25 of an inch are forecast over roughly the
northeast third of Texas, Louisiana, and over the Texas panhandle
into northern New Mexico and southern Colorado.

For Thursday into Friday morning, no significant MAP amounts are
forecast for the WGRFC area.  MAP amounts of less than 0.25 of an
inch are forecast over southern Colorado and extreme northern New
Mexico.

For Friday into Saturday morning, MAP amounts of 0.25 of an inch or
more are forecast for northern Texas, as well as over northeast New
Mexico and most of Colorado.  The heaviest rainfall, with MAP amounts
of over 1.00 inch, are forecast along the Red River and points
north of the WGRFC area.  MAP amounts of less than 0.25 of an inch
are forecast over the northern half of Texas, northern Louisiana,
most of New Mexico and Colorado.

For Saturday into Monday morning, MAP amounts of 0.25 of an inch or
more are forecast for the northeast half of Texas and Louisiana, as
well as over the northeast third of New Mexico and most of Colorado.
The heaviest rainfall, with MAP amounts of 4.00 inches, is forecast
over extreme northeast Texas along the Red River into southeast
Oklahoma. MAP amounts of less than 0.25 of an inch are forecast over
most remaining portions of the WGRFC area except for far southwest
Texas and southwest New Mexico.

Soil moisture conditions continue to show improvement due to recent
rainfall events. The latest U.S. Drought Monitor for Texas shows the
area considered to be abnormally dry at 10%. Also, 2% of Texas was
experiencing moderate drought, with nothing in severe drought. In
New Mexico the Drought Monitor shows 46% of the state experiencing
abnormally dry conditions, with nothing in the moderate drought
category or worse categories.  The rainfall forecast may produce
significant runoff over the northern and eastern Texas basins this
weekend.  Elsewhere, no significant runoff is expected over the
WGRFC area the next 5 days.

                     ...HYDROLOGIC DISCUSSION...
...WGRFC Basins...
Higher than normal flows are expected to continue over the Brazos and
Rio Grande river systems into this week, although the temperatures
will moderate in the headwaters of the Rio Grande into next week.

Precipitation is forecast across southern Colorado and northeast
Texas during the next 7 days. At this time, the heaviest rainfall
is forecast to impact portions of the Neches, Trinity and Sabine
basins.

              ...SUPPLEMENTARY GRAPHICAL INFORMATION...
The following URLs (all lower case) provide additional graphical
information on current and forecast hydrologic conditions, past and
future precipitation, and drought and climate forecasts.  This
information is provided by a variety of National Weather Service,
NOAA, and private sector entities.

For specific information on river conditions, refer to the AHPS
pages from the local NWS offices at:
http://water.weather.gov/ahps/

The Flood Potential Outlook can be viewed on our webpage at:
http://www.weather.gov/wgrfc/wgrfcfop

The West Gulf River Forecast Center is now on Facebook:
http://www.facebook.com/NWSWestGulf

National Precipitation Analysis:
http://water.weather.gov/precip/

The forecast rainfall amounts (QPF) can be viewed on our webpage at:
http://www.weather.gov/wgrfc/wgrfcqpfpage

The US Drought Assessment:
http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/Drought

The latest on Reservoir Information for Texas:
http://www.waterdatafortexas.org/reservoirs/statewide

STORY

$$




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