Hydrometeorological Discussion
Issued by NWS West Gulf RFC

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AGUS74 KFWR 031649
HMDFWR
HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE...WEST GULF RFC...FORT WORTH TX
1049 AM CST TUE MAR 3 2015

                    VALID MARCH 3 THROUGH MARCH 8

...WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED ACROSS MOST OF THE WGRFC AREA
THE NEXT FEW DAYS, BUT DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED BY THE WEEKEND...

                  ...METEOROLOGICAL DISCUSSION...
A large low pressure system is off the coast of southern California
this morning. Well out ahead of this storm, very light precipitation
has occurred across especially central Texas overnight and this
morning.  The showers and thunderstorms that occurred over
southeastern Texas and southern Louisiana moved out of the region
the past 24 hours. In Colorado and New Mexico, some light
precipitation fell as well, but it was not as heavy as previous days.
The upper level flow over the WGRFC area of responsibility will
continue to be from the southwest which will draw in additional upper
level Pacific moisture.  Widespread light precipitation is expected
from southern New Mexico to west Texas today, as well as through most
of central and eastern Texas. Also, light snow and rain is expected to
redevelop over northern New Mexico and Colorado by this evening.

A strong cold front is expected to approach the region from the north
this evening as a strong upper level trough moves over the northern
United States from Canada.  Additionally, the low pressure system off
the California coast will be pushed eastward.  Showers and
thunderstorms are possible beginning in northern and northeastern
Texas tonight, then as the front moves across Texas Wednesday the
showers and thunderstorms will continue along and ahead of the front
into east central Texas. Behind the front light precipitation will be
developing Wednesday.  With the cold air moving in, a mixture
of wintry precipitation is possible over north and central Texas
through Wednesday night.  Meanwhile, the snowfall will end in Colorado
and New Mexico by Thursday morning.  The upper level storm is forecast
to move east of the region by mid-day Thursday, and cold, dry air is
forecast to move in.  Thus most of the precipitation will end during
the day Thursday.  A final round of light precipitation is expected in
south Texas on Thursday and Thursday night before dry weather sets in.

By Friday a ridge of high pressure is forecast to develop over
central California.  As this ridge moves slowly eastward over the
weekend there may be some residual precipitation along and near the
Texas Gulf coast Friday and Saturday, but all the precipitation
should be east of the region by Sunday morning.

                    ...PRECIPITATION FORECAST...
For Today into Wednesday morning, Mean Areal Precipitation (MAP)
amounts of 0.25 inch are forecast for portions of far northern and
northeastern Texas.  Lesser MAP amounts are forecast for most of the
rest of Texas and Louisiana, as well as for portions of southern
Colorado and far northern New Mexico.

For Wednesday into Thursday morning, MAP amounts of 1.00 inch are
forecast for portions of northeastern Texas, with heavier amounts
forecast east of our region over Arkansas.  MAP amounts of 0.25 to
1.00 inch are forecast for much of central, northern and eastern
Texas.  MAP amounts of 0.25 inch are forecast for deep south Texas
and a small part of southern New Mexico.  Lesser MAP amounts are
forecast for most of the WGRFC area of responsibility.

For Thursday into Friday morning, no significant MAP amounts are
forecast for the WGRFC area.  MAP amounts of up to 0.25 inch are
forecast for much of Louisiana, as well as over Deep South Texas and
the lower Texas Gulf coast.

For Friday into Sunday morning, MAP amounts of 0.25 to 0.50 inch are
forecast for portions of extreme southeastern Texas and southern
Louisiana. Lesser MAP amounts are forecast for the southern half of
Texas and the southern two thirds of Louisiana.

Moderate or worse drought conditions continue across parts of New
Mexico and Texas. In Texas, about a third of the state is experiencing
moderate or worse drought (43%), and about 14% has extreme to
exceptional drought conditions. In New Mexico, two thirds of the state
is experiencing moderate or worse drought (68%), and 4% has extreme to
exceptional drought conditions.  Lake levels in these exceptional
drought areas are at or near historical lows for this time of year.
Rainfall amounts of up to 1.50 inches are forecast for northeastern
Texas the next 5 days which could produce some runoff.  Elsewhere,
little or no runoff is expected.

                     ...HYDROLOGIC DISCUSSION...
...Sabine Basin...
...Higher Flow Non-Flood Forecasts...
The Sabine River at Deweyville (DWYT2) will crest near action stage
late week, then quickly fall as Toledo Bend has shut off power
generation until further notice.

...Remainder of WGRFC Basins...
Most rivers are generally near normal baseflow conditions across the
eastern WGRFC area and below normal across the western areas.
Forecast precipitation across northeastern Texas will generate new
rises on small streams and creeks within headwater areas within the
Sabine and Neches river basins.  However, continued periodic rains are
slowly replenishing deeper soil moisture deficits that occurred over
the past few years.

              ...SUPPLEMENTARY GRAPHICAL INFORMATION...
The following URLs (all lower case) provide additional graphical
information on current and forecast hydrologic conditions, past and
future precipitation, and drought and climate forecasts.  This
information is provided by a variety of National Weather Service,
NOAA, and private sector entities.

For specific information on river conditions, refer to the AHPS
pages from the local NWS offices at:
http://water.weather.gov/ahps/

The Flood Potential Outlook can be viewed on our webpage at:
http://www.srh.noaa.gov/wgrfc/?n=wgrfcfop

The West Gulf River Forecast Center is now on Facebook:
http://www.facebook.com/US.NationalWeatherService.WGRFC.gov

National Precipitation Analysis:
http://water.weather.gov/precip/

The forecast rainfall amounts (QPF) can be viewed on our webpage at:
http://www.srh.noaa.gov/wgrfc/?n=wgrfcqpfpage

The US Drought Assessment:
http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/Drought

The latest on Reservoir Information for Texas:
http://www.waterdatafortexas.org

STORY

$$




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