Issued by NWS North Central River Forecast Center
AGUS73 KMSR 211801
Hydrometeorological Forecast Discussion
NWS North Central River Forecast Center Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN
1201 PM CST Tue Feb 21 2017
With another day of unseasonably warm temperatures across the
upper midwest, several areas in the NCRFC region had a
significant amount of rain and scattered thunderstorms. Rainfall
totals since yesterday morning averaged around an inch in
northeast to southeast Minnesota, over the northwest half of
Wisconsin and down through northeast to central Iowa. Areas with
around a half inch of rain extended along western Minnesota, in
upper Michigan, from northeast to southwest Wisconsin and along
eastern Iowa to northwest and west central Illinois.
A smaller area of scattered thunderstorms last night produced
one to two inches of rain in east central to southern Missouri.
In the forecast...rain today shifts with the front to the eastern
and southern parts of our region with the front. Rainfall totals
today should average around a tenth inch or less across lower
Michigan and northern Indiana, from northeast to southern Illinois
to southeast Missouri. Also tonight light precipitation will move
across North Dakota into northern Minnesota, where amounts will
average less than a tenth inch. For Day 2, this area will extend
farther east and sag a bit southward. So for Wednesday to
Thursday morning around a quarter inch of precipitation is
expected across northern Minnesota to upper Michigan, and a tenth
inch or less across northern Wisconsin, through central Minnesota
and across North Dakota.
Rainfall over the past 24 hours, and snowmelt, due to record
breaking warm temperatures, on top of mostly frozen or saturated
ground, has caused moderate flooding at Black River Falls,
Wisconsin on the Black River. Other locations in southwestern
Wisconsin may rise above moderate flood levels this week.
Rises above bankfull and minor flood levels are likely this week
in Minnesota, Wisconsin, Iowa, and the Red River of the North
in North Dakota and western Minnesota.
A new rain-snow storm on Friday may cause additional river rises
in Iowa and Wisconsin and could push the Mississippi River to
minor to moderate flood levels from roughly Rock Island to
Burlington, Iowa, in early March.
Many rivers across the NCRFC region are running above normal for
this time of year. Snowmelt and ice movement are causing some
rises across the northern portions of the area. Additionally,
ice currently frozen in culverts, ditches and drain tiles could
impact the timing and volume of runoff that gets to the rivers.
The National Spring Hydrologic outlook was released last Friday,
and includes probabilistic flood exceedence information for
forecast points in the NCRFC area. For a link to the NCRFC 2017
Spring Hydrologic Outlook, which contains references to antecedent
and current hydrologic conditions, please refer to:
For additional and more in-depth information concerning river
forecasts, precipitation and all hydrometeorological information
in the NCRFC area of responsibility, please refer to the NCRFC
web page at: http://www.weather.gov/ncrfc
Emergency Call Back List: DCG SAS WES RHR
If no response from this list, call the DOH, SCH or HIC.