Hydrometeorological Discussion
Issued by NWS North Central River Forecast Center

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Hydrometeorological Forecast Discussion
NWS North Central River Forecast Center Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN
1134 AM CDT Mon Aug 29 2016

...Precipitation...

Thunderstorms dropped heavy rain across Minnesota Sunday into this
morning... mainly across the arrowhead.  Widespread inch to 2 inch
reports were received.

Rain also fell from Iowa and Missouri eastward into Illinois and
Indiana where half to inch reports were received.

Heavy rain is forecast from eastern Minnesota to northern
Wisconsin today into Tuesday morning.  Between an inch and two
inches could fall... mainly across northern Wisconsin.
Lighter rain is expected across the remainder of the region
except for North Dakota... far northwestern Minnesota and most of
lower Michigan.

Rainfall will diminish into the middle of the week but most areas
will receive some rain... generally in the tenth to quarter inch
range.  By the end of the week and into the early part of the
weekend dryer weather is expected region wide.

...Hydrologic Conditions...

About a dozen forecast points in the NCRFC area are at or forecast
to go above flood stage.  These minor flood locations are in Iowa,
northern Indiana, and Illinois.

Over 30 forecast locations are considered active at this time,
yet below flood stage.  These locations are located in Iowa,
northern Indiana, Minnesota, Wisconsin, Illinois, Michigan,
and Missouri.

The Mississippi River is cresting near Lock and Dam 13.
Flows on the Mississippi are expected to rise
to bankfull levels downstream to Lock and Dam 25, which is
upstream of the confluence with the Missouri River.
A few locations around Lock and Dams 17 and 18 on the mainstem
Mississippi are forecast to rise into minor flood levels.

A large portion of the NCRFC area has very wet soil
conditions for this time of year.  The high soil moisture is
also demonstrated by the USGS Daily Streamflow Conditions map
which shows flows at river gages in these areas generally at the
76th percentile or higher.

The U.S. Drought Monitor shows only isolated areas in the NCRFC
region with abnormally dry intensity.  These dry areas are the
far northern portion of the lower peninsula of Michigan, the far
southeastern corner of Wisconsin and south central Iowa.  The
majority of the NCRFC area is not impacted by any drought
signatures.

For additional and more in-depth information concerning river
forecasts, precipitation and all hydrometeorological information
in the NCRFC area of responsibility, please refer to the NCRFC
web page at:     http://www.weather.gov/ncrfc

Emergency Call Back List: SAS ... WES ... ALH ... RJW

If no response from this list, call the DOH or SCH.


$$

...rjw/alh...





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