Ice Forecast
Issued by NWS Anchorage, AK

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000
FZAK80 PAFC 232240
ICEAFC

SEA ICE ADVISORY FOR WESTERN AND ARCTIC ALASKAN COASTAL WATERS
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE ALASKA
240 PM AKDT MONDAY 23 OCTOBER 2017

FORECAST VALID THROUGH...SATURDAY 28 OCTOBER 2017

ANALYSIS CONFIDENCE...HIGH TO MODERATE

SYNOPSIS...HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE NORTHERN CHUKCHI AND BEAUFORT
SEAS WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT EASTWARD TOWARD THE CANADIAN ARCHIPELAGO
THROUGH SATURDAY. A STRONG LOW WILL TRACK ALONG THE ALEUTIAN CHAIN
THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING...THEN WEAKEN AND MOVE INTO THE BERING
STRAIT REGION BY SATURDAY.

-ARCTIC OCEAN-
ICE COVERED.

-BEAUFORT SEA-
PKZ235-POINT FRANKLIN TO CAPE HALKETT-
PKZ240-CAPE HALKETT TO FLAXMAN ISLAND-
PKZ245-FLAXMAN ISLAND TO DEMARCATION POINT-
PKZ510-EASTERN U.S. ARCTIC OFFSHORE-

THE MAIN ICE EDGE IN THE BEAUFORT SEA EXTENDS FROM APPROXIMATELY 175
NM NORTH OF POINT BARROW TO 70.8N 141W AND CONTINUES EASTWARD INTO
CANADIAN WATERS. THE ICE EDGE IS MAINLY OPEN WATER. NEW AND YOUNG
SEA ICE HAS ALSO BEEN NOTED ALONG THE NORTH COAST OF ALASKA FROM
POINT BARROW TO DEMARCATION POINT. ICE EXTENDS 5 TO 10 NM OFFSHORE
FROM POINT BARROW TO OLIKTOK POINT...15 TO 30 NM OFFSHORE BETWEEN
OLIKTOK POINT AND KAKTOVIK...AND ROUGHLY 5 NM OFFSHORE FROM KAKTOVIK
TO DEMARCATION POINT.

FORECAST THROUGH SATURDAY FOR THE BEAUFORT SEA...MODERATE EAST-
NORTHEAST WINDS WILL PERSIST THROUGH SATURDAY. THE MAIN ICE EDGE IS
EXPECTED TO MOVE AND EXPAND 25 TO 40 NM TOWARD THE SOUTHWEST THROUGH
SATURDAY. SEA ICE ALONG THE ALASKA COASTLINE IS EXPECTED TO EXPAND
TO THE NORTH UP TO 10 NM THROUGH SATURDAY.

-CHUKCHI SEA-
PKZ230-CAPE BEAUFORT TO POINT FRANKLIN-

THE MAIN ICE EDGE IN THE CHUKCHI SEA EXTENDS FROM APPROXIMATELY 175
NM NORTH OF POINT BARROW TO 75.8N 167.8W TO 73.5N 174.2W AND
CONTINUES SOUTHWESTWARD IN RUSSIAN WATERS. NEW AND YOUNG SEA ICE HAS
ALSO BEEN OBSERVED BEHIND BARRIER ISLANDS AND WITHIN COASTAL AND
PROTECTED WATERS FROM POINT BARROW TO APPROXIMATELY 50 NM SOUTH-
SOUTHWEST OF POINT LAY. NEW SEA ICE HAS ALSO BEGUN TO FORM WITHIN
PROTECTED WATERS OF KOTZEBUE SOUND AND ALONG THE NORTH SIDE OF THE
SEWARD PENINSULA FROM WALES TO ESPENBERG.

FORECAST THROUGH SATURDAY FOR THE CHUKCHI SEA...GENERALLY EASTERLY
WINDS WILL PERSIST THROUGH SATURDAY...BECOMING STRONGER TOWARD THE
END OF THE WEEK. THE MAIN ICE EDGE IS EXPECTED TO MOVE AND EXPAND 25
TO 40 NM TOWARD THE SOUTHWEST THROUGH SATURDAY. THE NEW AND YOUNG
SEA ICE BETWEEN POINT BARROW AND POINT LAY MAY ALSO BEGIN TO EXPAND
OFFSHORE UP TO 5 NM THROUGH SATURDAY.

-BERING SEA-
PKZ200-NORTON SOUND-
PKZ210-DALL POINT TO WALES-

NEW SEA ICE HAS BEEN OBSERVED NEAR THE YUKON RIVER DELTA AS WELL AS
WITHIN PROTECTED BAYS OF NORTHERN NORTON SOUND.

FORECAST THROUGH SATURDAY FOR THE BERING SEA...WARMER TEMPERATURES
ARE EXPECTED ALONG THE WEST COAST OF ALASKA BY THE MIDDLE OF THE
WEEK. IT IS POSSIBLE THAT SOME OF THE NEWLY FORMED SEA ICE WITHIN
THE YUKON RIVER DELTA WILL MELT OUT BY SATURDAY. WARMER AIR AND SEA
SURFACE TEMPERATURES WILL PROHIBIT NEW SEA ICE FROM FORMING FARTHER
OFFSHORE THROUGH SATURDAY.

-COOK INLET-
PKZ140-COOK INLET NORTH OF KALGIN ISLAND-

NEW SEA ICE HAS BEEN OBSERVED IN UPPER KNIK ARM NEAR THE KNIK RIVER
BRIDGE...AS WELL AS NEAR THE MOUTH OF THE SUSITNA RIVER.

FORECAST THROUGH SATURDAY FOR COOK INLET...TEMPERATURES WILL WARM
SUBSTANTIALLY OVER THE COOK INLET REGION BY THURSDAY AND REMAIN
ABOVE FREEZING EVEN DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS THROUGH SATURDAY. IT
IS POSSIBLE THAT THE NEWLY FORMED SEA ICE WILL MELT OUT BY SATURDAY.
WARMER AIR AND SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES WILL PROHIBIT NEW SEA ICE
FROM FORMING ELSEWHERE IN COOK INLET THROUGH SATURDAY.

$$



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