Marine Interpretation Message
Issued by NWS

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000
AGPN40 KWNM 290349
MIMPAC

MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR N PACIFIC OCEAN
NWS OCEAN PREDICTION CENTER WASHINGTON DC
849 PM PDT MON JUL 28 2014

.FORECAST DISCUSSION: MAJOR FEATURES/WINDS/SEAS/SIGNIFICANT
.WEATHER FOR THE NORTH PACIFIC N OF 30N AND E OF 150W.

SLOW CHANGING PATTERN EXPECTED OVR EPAC OVR NEXT 5 DAYS AS AN UPR
LOW IN ERN GLF OF AK OVERNIGHT INTO TUE NIGHT RPTATES BACK TWD SW
WED INTO SAT ALLOWING AN UPR RDG OVR WRN U.S. INTO SW CANADA TO
STRENGTHEN...AND AS A RESULT THE INVERTED TROF OVR CA INTO SW
OREGON AFTER INITL WKNG STRENGTHENS WED INTO SAT...AND WNDS INCRS
OFF NRN CA/SRN OREGON TO 25-30 KT BY THU AND SPREAD N AND S INTO
SAT. ONE WRINKLE IS THAT 18Z GFS DVLPS GALE FRC BL WNDS IN NRN CA
OFSHR NR CSTL AREA LATE FRI BUT OTHER MDLS ARE NOT ON BOARD...WITH
12Z UKMET SHOWING GALES OFF NRN CA FRI NIGHT BUT ONLY IN CSTL AREA
AND THE USUALLY ROBUST CMC GLOBAL ONLY SHOWS MAX 1000 MB WNDS OF
35 KT. WILL USE 12Z GFS FOR FCST ON WHICH GRIDS ARE BASED.

SEAS...12Z/18Z WAVE WATCH III APPR WELL INITIALIZED AND WILL USE
FOR FCST WITH 12Z ECMWF WAM ONLY SHOWING MINOR DIFFERENCES BY WED
MAINLY IN CSTL WTRS WITH SLGTLY HIGHER SEAS.
-----------------------------------------------------------------
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...

THERE IS STILL NO INDC OF CONV CLDS OVER THE REGION. THE RADAR
DOES NOT HAV ANY TSTMS CELLS OVR MOST OF THE REGION EXCEPT THE FAR
SRN REGION WHERE SOME LIGHTNG IS SLOWLY DIMINSHING. TS HERNAN IS
STILL MOVING TWD NW AND GETTING CLOSER TO THE SRN WTRS BUT WILL
NOT BE CLOSE ENOUGH TO POSE ANY MJR THREAT TO THE FCST WTRS IN THE
SHORT TERM AND THE NHC HAS MORE INFO UNDER TCMEP3. AT 1800Z HGH
PRES 1026 MB W OF THE CNTRL REGION NR NEAR 38N136W IS STILL THE
MAIN SYNOP FEATURE THAT HAS MAINTAINED A WEAK RIDGE NE ACRS THE
NRN WTRS AND ALSO SE ACRS THE SRN WTRS. LOW PRES 1014 MB NOW 120
NM NW OF THE WASH WTRS IS PART OF A BROAD LOW PRES AREA THAT SPANS
INTO THE GULF OF AK. INLAND LOW PRES OVR AZ STILL HAS A TROF
STRETCHING NW ACRS CAL STATE INTO OREG. THE MAX OBS WINDS ARE 15
KT. THE LATST ASCAT PASS AT 1804Z HAD MAX WINDS OVR THE OREG AND
NRN CAL WTRS AT 20 KT.

THE GLBL MDLS HV INITIALIZED FAIRLY WELL AND THEY ARE INITIALLY
IN DECENT AGRMNT ESPCLY OVR THE SHORT. UPPERLEVEL SYNOP FEATURES
SUPPORT THE SFC FEATURES FAIRLY WELL. MOST OF THE ENRGY WILL
REMAIN NW OF THE REGION AS THE RIDGE PERSISTS NR THE COAST. AS
SUCH THE PRES GRDNT WILL CONTNE TO BE WEAK AND THERE SHOULD BE NO
MJR CHGS TO THE CURR FCST.

IN THE SHORT TERM THE LOW PRES W OF THE NRN REGION WILL MOVE NE
INTO THE COAST OF CANADA WHILE THE HGH PRES WILL REMAIN NRLY STNRY
W OF CNTRL REGION. THE PRES GRDNT WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD SLOWLY AS
HGH PRES STRENGTHENS BUT WINDS WILL STIL REMAIN BELOW GALE FORCE.

.SEAS...THE SEAS RANGE BTWN 4 AND 9 FT WITH HGHST SEAS OVR THE
CNTRL REGION. THE NWW3 MULTI GRID WV MDL FITS WELL WITH THE OBS
SEAS PATTERN AND S QUITE CLOSE TO THE ECMWFWAVE IN THE SHORT TERM
BUT MNR DIFFS IN THE XTNDD PRD WHERE THE EURO HAS SLIGHTLY HGR
SEAS THAN NWW3. WILL KEEP IT SIMPLE AND JUST USE ENPWAVE.

.EXTRATROPICAL STORM SURGE GUIDANCE...N/A.

.WARNINGS...PRELIMINARY.

.PZ5 WASHINGTON/OREGON WATERS...
     NONE.

.PZ6 CALIFORNIA WATERS...
     NONE.

$$

.FORECASTER BANCROFT/MUSONDA. OCEAN PREDICTION CENTER.


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