Marine Interpretation Message
Issued by NWS

Home | Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | Print | Product List | Glossary On
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50
000
AGPN40 KWNM 300333
MIMPAC

MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR N PACIFIC OCEAN
NWS OCEAN PREDICTION CENTER WASHINGTON DC
833 PM PDT FRI APR 29 2016

.FORECAST DISCUSSION: MAJOR FEATURES/WINDS/SEAS/SIGNIFICANT
.WEATHER FOR THE NORTH PACIFIC N OF 30N AND E OF 150W.

A CD FNT WAS MOVG S ALG THE CNTRL CA WTRS THIS EVENING. ELSW HIGH
PRES WAS ALG OR JUST W OF THE WA/OR WTRS AND W OF THE CNTRL CA
WTRS. THERE WAS A SHIP OBS OVR THE OUTER WTRS OF CAPE FLATTERY TO
CAPE SHOALWATERS WITH NW WINDS TO 30 KT. QC HISTORY HISTORY HAS
ABT 63 OBS IN THE DATABASE WITH A PLUS 6 KT BIAS WHICH WUD
INDICATE ABT 24 KT WHICH FITS WELL WITH GFS 30M WINDS AND IS
CLOSE TO GRIDS IN THIS AREA. ELSW HAV NOT SEEN ANY SHIP OBS WITH
GALE FORCE...BUT GUID HAS GALES OVR THE ERN AREAS OF N CNTRL CA
WTRS JUST N OF THE CD FNT. THE COASTAL TROF ALG CA SHUD SLOWLY
INTENSIFY OVNGT INTO SAT WITH STGST CONDS LATER ON SAT OVR THE ERN
AREAS OF THE NRN AND CNTRL CA WTRS. FOR THE UPDATE WL NOT BE
MAKING ANY CHANGES FOR NOW WITH GRIDS LOOKING RSNBL IN THE SHORT
TERM OVR THE NEXT SVRL DAYS.

-----------------------------------------------------------------
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...

LATEST OBS ACROSS THE OFFSHORE WATERS INDICATE MAX SEAS 12-13 FT
OVR THE INNER OFFSHORE WATERS. OVR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS THE
LARGEST INFUENCE TO THE WINDS AND SEAS OVR THE REGION WILL BE THE
TROF/RIDGE COMBINATION. EXPECT THE NRLY GRADIENT TO TIGHTEN
THROUGH SAT AS THE COASTAL TROF STRENGTHENS WHILE A HIGH PRES
RIDGE BUILDS NE OVR MUCH OF THE CA/OR WATERS. GALE CONDITIONS WILL
OCCUR ACROSS MUCH OF THE ERN PORTION OF THE NRN ANC CENTRAL WATERS
INTO SUN NIGHT. THE TROF WILL EXPAND N ALONG THE CST WHILE SLOWLY
WEAKENING SAT NIGHT AND SUN.

THE 12Z GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN PRETTY GOOD AGREMENT DURING THE FIRST
3 DAYS...THEN SLOWLY DIVERGE AFTER THAT. THE ECMWF BRINGS A FRONT
ACROSS THE WATERS WHILE THE GFS KEEPS THE SYSTEM W OF THE REGION.
WILL KEEP PRV CONTINUITY AND USE THE ECMWF GUID LATER IN THE
PERIOD. AS FAR AS THE GRIDS GO...WILL POP THE WIND GRIDS USING A
50/50 BLEND OF THE 30M AND 10M GFS THROUGH 00Z/02...THEN TRANSITON
TO A BLEND OF THE 30M GFS AND ECMWF THROUGH 12Z/02...THEN FINISH
WITH 100 PERCENT ECMWF FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE 7 DAYS.

SEAS...BOTH THE ENP AND WAM INITIALIZED OK...ALTHOUGH THE WAM IS
SLIGHTLY BETTER EARLY ON. WILL POP THE WAVE GRIDS USING THE WAM
THROUGH 00Z TODAY...THEN TRANSITION TO A 50/50 BLEND OF THE TWO
WAVE MODELS THROUGH 21Z/02...FINALLY FINISH THE REMAINDER OF THE
PERIOD POP WITH THE WAM.

.EXTRATROPICAL STORM SURGE GUIDANCE...N/A.


.WARNINGS...PRELIMINARY.

.PZ5 WASHINGTON/OREGON WATERS...
     NONE.

.PZ6 CALIFORNIA WATERS...
.PZZ820...INNER WATERS FROM POINT ST. GEORGE TO POINT ARENA...
     GALE SAT INTO SAT NIGHT.
.PZZ920...OUTER WATERS FROM POINT ST. GEORGE TO POINT ARENA...
     GALE SAT.
.PZZ825...INNER WATERS FROM POINT ARENA TO PIGEON POINT...
     GALE TONIGHT INTO SAT NIGHT.
.PZZ925...OUTER WATERS FROM POINT ARENA TO PIGEON POINT...
     GALE SAT.
.PZZ830...INNER WATERS FROM PIGEON POINT TO POINT PIEDRAS BLANCAS...
     GALE TONIGHT.
.PZZ835...INNER WATERS FROM POINT PIEDRAS BLANCAS TO SANTA CRUZ ISLAND, CA...
     GALE TONIGHT.
.PZZ840...INNER WATERS FROM SANTA CRUZ ISLAND, CA TO SAN CLEMENTE ISLAND, CA...
     GALE TONIGHT.

$$

.FORECASTER ROWLAND/SHAW. OCEAN PREDICTION CENTER.


USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.