Marine Interpretation Message
Issued by NWS

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000
AGPN40 KWNM 010235
MIMPAC

MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR N PACIFIC OCEAN
NWS OCEAN PREDICTION CENTER WASHINGTON DC
735 PM PDT FRI SEP 30 2016

.FORECAST DISCUSSION...MAJOR FEATURES/WINDS/SEAS/SIGNIFICANT
.WEATHER FOR THE NORTH PACIFIC N OF 30N AND E OF 150W.

NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE FORECAST ANTICIPATED IN THIS
INTERMEDIATE PACKAGE.

-----------------------------------------------------------------
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...

12Z GLOBAL MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH MOST OF THE FORECAST
PERIOD...WITH DIFFERENCES NOTED TOWARDS THE END OF THE PERIOD.
WILL POPULATE WIND GRIDS WITH 10M WINDS FROM THE 12Z GFS UNTIL 00Z
WED...THEN SWITCH TO THE 12Z UKMET THEREAFTER.

WEAK LOW MEANDERING OVER THE NRN WATERS AT THIS TIME. MODELS STILL
SHOWING A SECOND LOW MOVING SE ACROSS THE PZ5 WATERS SAT AND SAT
NIGHT...AND THE NE PORTION OF THE NRN PZ6 WATERS SUN BEFORE MOVING
INLAND. GALES COULD OCCUR WITH THE SECOND LOW IN THE W QUADRANT
SAT INTO SAT NIGHT...BUT SHOULD REMAIN W OF THE FORECAST WATERS.

STRONG COLD FRONT STILL EXPECTED TO APPROACH THE WATERS SUN NIGHT
INTO MON. GFS STILL INDICATING POTENTIAL OF 10M SLY GALES AHEAD OF
THE FRONT OVER THE PZ5 WATERS MON INTO MON NIGHT. THIS COULD BE
ENHANCED BY A POSSIBLE FRONTAL WAVE ALONG THE FRONT OVER THE PZ5
WATERS...THAT BOTH THE UKMET AND THE GFS ARE SHOWING. CONFIDENCE
NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO GO WITH THIS SOLUTION AT THIS TIME...WILL KEEP
WINDS AT 30 KT AND GO WITH A STRAIGHT FRONTAL PASSAGE. WILL NEED
TO MONITIOR THE NEXT FEW RUNS TO SEE IF TRENDS CONTINUE AND GALES
ARE NEEDED FOR THE OFFSHORE WATERS. FRONT PUSHES THROUGH THE MON
NIGHT AND TUE.

SOME DIFFERENCES NOTED BETWEEN THE GFS AND THE UKMET OF THE
STRENGTH OF THE ASSOCIATED LOW PRES SYSTEM NW OF THE AREA TUE.
BOTH MODELS DO BRING IT SE TOWARDS THE WATERS TUE AND TUE NIGHT.
BOTH MODELS DO ALSO WEAKEN THE LOW AS IT APPROACHES...AS A HIGH
PRES RIDGE BUILDS IN FROM THE SW. HOWEVER...GFS WEAKENS IT SLOWER
THAN THE UKMET. PREFER THE WEAKER UKMET SOLUTION AT THIS TIME...AS
RIDGE SHOULD ALLOW FOR A FASTER WEAKENING TREND THAN THE GFS. SO
WILL SWITCH TO THE UKMET FOR THE WIND GRIDS BY 00Z WED.


.SEAS...ENP VERSION OF WAVEWATCH WITHIN A FOOT OR TWO OF CURRENT
OBS. WILL POPULATE WIND GRIDS FROM 12Z ENP THROUGH THE
PERIOD...BUT WILL DECREASE SEAS BY 10 PERCENT OVER THE PZ5 WATERS
TOWARDS THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD WHERE USING WEAKER UKMET
SOLUTION FOR WIND FORECAST.


.EXTRATROPICAL STORM SURGE GUIDANCE...N/A.



.WARNINGS...PRELIMINARY.

.PZ5 WASHINGTON/OREGON WATERS...
     NONE.

.PZ6 CALIFORNIA WATERS...
     NONE.

$$

NOTE: ON OCTOBER 06, 2016...THE NWS FTPMAIL SERVICE WILL DISABLE
THE CURRENT EMAIL ADDRESS. THE NEW EMAIL ADDRESS IS LIVE NOW.
PLEASE TRANSITION TO IT AS SOON AS POSSIBLE TO AVOID A SERVICE
DISRUPTION.

NEW EMAIL ADDRESS...NWS.FTPMAIL.OPS@NOAA.GOV
/ALL LOWER CASE LETTERS/

FOR THE SERVICE CHANGE NOTICE...PLEASE GO TO
HTTP://WWW.NWS.NOAA.GOV/OS/NOTIFICATION/SCN16-37FTPMAIL.HTM
/ALL LOWER CASE LETTERS/

.FORECASTER HOLLEY/ACHORN. OCEAN PREDICTION CENTER.


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