Severe Storm Outlook Narrative (AC)
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000
ACUS48 KWNS 250818
SWOD48
SPC AC 250818

DAY 4-8 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0318 AM CDT FRI JUL 25 2014

VALID 281200Z - 021200Z

...DISCUSSION...
...MID ATLANTIC STATES...
MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE DEVELOPMENT OF THE ERN
TROUGH ON MON/D4...WITH AXIS ACROSS THE APPALACHIANS AT 00Z WITH
45-70 KT MID TO UPPER LEVEL FLOW. AT THE SURFACE...AMPLE CONVERGENCE
WILL EXIST ALONG THE COLD FRONT WITH DEWPOINTS INTO THE 70S BENEATH
RELATIVELY COOL PROFILES ALOFT. THE COMBINATION OF STRONG
INSTABILITY WITH LONG STRAIGHT-LINE HODOGRAPHS WILL FAVOR SPLITTING
SUPERCELLS CAPABLE OF LARGE HAIL...SOME VERY LARGE. HOT TEMPERATURES
AND AMPLE PRECIPITABLE WATER ALSO SUGGEST DAMAGING WIND POTENTIAL.
THE GREATEST THREAT AREA APPEARS TO BE OVER ERN NC AND NERN
SC...WITH NRN EXTENT PERHAPS INTO THE DELMARVA.

A LESS CONCENTRATED THREAT OF HAIL AND WIND IS LIKELY ACROSS THE
CNTRL GULF COAST STATES ALONG THE COLD FRONT.

AFTER THE D4 PERIOD...THE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE OFFSHORE WITH THE
UPPER TROUGH NEARLY STATIONARY WITH RELAXING HEIGHT/TEMP GRADIENTS
WITH TIME.

..JEWELL.. 07/25/2014



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