Severe Storm Outlook Narrative (AC)
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000
ACUS48 KWNS 090934
SWOD48
SPC AC 090932

DAY 4-8 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0332 AM CST TUE FEB 09 2016

VALID 121200Z - 171200Z

...DISCUSSION...
THE MEDIUM RANGE MODELS BEGIN THE DAY 4 TO 8 PERIOD WITH AN
UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE WRN U.S. AND NORTHWEST MID-LEVEL FLOW
OVER THE GREAT PLAINS AND MS VALLEY. THE MODELS DEVELOP AN
UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE ERN U.S. FROM FRIDAY/DAY 4 INTO
SATURDAY/DAY 5 WITH THIS FEATURE MOVING OFFSHORE INTO THE ATLANTIC
BY SUNDAY/DAY 6. BOTH THE ECMWF AND GFS DEVELOP ANOTHER UPPER-LEVEL
TROUGH IN THE CNTRL U.S. ON SUNDAY AND MOVE THIS FEATURE EWD INTO
THE OH AND TN VALLEYS ON MONDAY/DAY 7. NORTHWEST MID-LEVEL FLOW
RETURNS TO THE CNTRL U.S. IN THE WAKE OF THE UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH FOR
MONDAY AND TUESDAY/DAY 8. THE PATTERN IN THE DAY 4 TO 8 PERIOD WILL
RESULT IN A COUPLE FAST MOVING COLD FRONTS MOVING FROM NW TO SE
ACROSS THE CNTRL AND ERN U.S. IN THE WAKE OF THESE FRONTS...COLD
HIGH PRESSURE WILL KEEP A RELATIVELY DRY AIRMASS IN PLACE ACROSS
MOST OF THE CONUS RESULTING IN A LIMITED POTENTIAL FOR THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.

..BROYLES.. 02/09/2016


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