Severe Storm Outlook Narrative (AC)
Issued by NWS

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ACUS02 KWNS 250448
SWODY2
SPC AC 250447

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1147 PM CDT WED AUG 24 2016

VALID 261200Z - 271200Z

...THERE IS A MRGL RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM KS INTO WRN MO...

...THERE IS A MRGL RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS THE NRN HIGH PLAINS...

...SUMMARY...
A FEW MARGINALLY SEVERE STORMS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE NORTHERN HIGH
PLAINS...AND ACROSS PARTS OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS.

...SYNOPSIS...
A LOW-AMPLITUDE UPPER TROUGH WILL QUICKLY MOVE ACROSS NEW ENGLAND
WITH AN ISOLATED EARLY STORM OR TWO ACROSS MAINE BEFORE THE FRONT
MOVES OFFSHORE. BEHIND THIS TROUGH...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE CENTERED
OVER THE GREAT LAKES PROVIDING COOL AND STABLE AIR. TO THE W...A
BROAD BUT WEAKER UPPER TROUGH WILL EXTEND FROM THE ROCKIES INTO THE
PLAINS...WITH A BELT OF STRONGER FLOW ALOFT MOVING FROM THE CNTRL
PLAINS INTO THE UPPER MS VALLEY THROUGH THE PERIOD. AT THE SFC...A
STALLED BOUNDARY WILL EXTEND FROM THE MID MS VALLEY SWWD ACROSS KS.
A POCKET OF MODERATE INSTABILITY IS FORECAST TO REMAIN OVER THE
CNTRL PLAINS WHICH MAY SUPPORT A FEW SEVERE STORMS DURING THE
AFTERNOON. FARTHER W...UPSLOPE FLOW AND A WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE
OVER ERN WY WILL SUPPORT A FEW STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS DURING THE
AFTERNOON.

...NRN HIGH PLAINS...
COOL MIDLEVEL TEMPERATURES WILL EXIST OVER THE REGION WHICH WILL
COMBINE WITH 50S F DEWPOINTS AND HEATING TO CREATE A MARGINALLY
UNSTABLE ATMOSPHERE. THE COOL TEMPERATURES ALOFT AND MODEST WLY FLOW
ALOFT SHOULD SUPPORT HAIL WITH THE STRONGEST CELLS IN A RELATIVELY
NARROW CORRIDOR BEFORE CAPPING INCREASING AFTER SUNSET.

...KS AND SURROUNDING AREAS...
AREAS OF THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO BE ONGOING FRIDAY MORNING
ACROSS THE CNTRL PLAINS WHICH WILL LIKELY PRODUCE OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES
AND LENDS UNCERTAINTY AS TO WHERE THE MAIN FOCUS FOR AFTERNOON
DEVELOPMENT WILL BE LATER IN THE DAY. AREAS OF HEATING WILL LEAD TO
MODERATE DESTABILIZATION WITH MID TO UPPER 60S F DEWPOINTS IN
PLACE...AND SHEAR WILL BE MARGINALLY FAVORABLE FOR ORGANIZED CELLS
OR SMALL BOWS WITH 30 TO 50 KT MID TO UPPER LEVEL FLOW. THUS...WIND
AND MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL WILL BE POSSIBLE...BUT SEVERE STORMS MAY
BE QUITE ISOLATED ACROSS THE REGION.

..JEWELL.. 08/25/2016

$$



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