Severe Storm Outlook Narrative (AC)
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ACUS02 KWNS 231722
SWODY2
SPC AC 231721

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1221 PM CDT Fri Jun 23 2017

Valid 241200Z - 251200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
THE SOUTHEAST...

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER NEW
MEXICO...

...SUMMARY...
Isolated strong storms with gusty winds are possible over portions
of the Southeast on Saturday, with isolated hail or wind over parts
of New Mexico.

...Southeast...

Remnants of Cindy are expected to translate off the Middle Atlantic
Coast early in the day2 period and upper ridging will be suppressed
across the Southeast as a broader trough begins to establish itself
over the eastern US. As this occurs, pre-frontal trough will ease
into the Carolinas/GA which should provide the focus for convection
Saturday. While mid-level lapse rates will remain poor, roughly
moist-adiabatic, some boundary-layer heating is expected from
southern GA into coastal Carolina such that modest buoyancy should
develop by mid-day ahead of the aforementioned zone of low-level
confluence. Convection that evolves across the Southeast will do so
within a zone of modest deep-layer shear that could support gusty
winds with the strongest storms.

....New Mexico...

Deep northwesterly flow across the northern/central Plains will be
conducive for surface ridge to build south into the high Plains of
TX/NM. Upslope flow will develop early in the period across this
region forcing moisture deep into the southern Rockies. As the
surface ridge strengthens over the southern Plains, strong heating
along the western edge of this moisture field should contribute to
significant buoyancy and strong thunderstorms will likely develop
over portions of NM. Forecast soundings favor rotating updrafts and
a few supercells may ultimately evolve which would propagate south
along an instability axis toward northern Mexico during the late
evening/overnight hours. Hail/wind can be expected with the most
robust convection across this region given the steep lapse rates
expected.

..Darrow.. 06/23/2017

$$



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