Severe Storm Outlook Narrative (AC)
Issued by NWS

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000
ACUS02 KWNS 241731
SWODY2
SPC AC 241730

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1230 PM CDT SUN MAY 24 2015

VALID 251200Z - 261200Z

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS THE BODY OF TX INTO WRN
LA...

...THERE IS A MRGL RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM TX INTO THE UPPER MS
VALLEY...

...SUMMARY...
SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP FROM TEXAS INTO THE
MID SOUTH REGION ON MEMORIAL DAY. SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL ALSO
OCCUR ACROSS MUCH OF THE INTERIOR WEST INTO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES
AND OHIO VALLEY. THE GREATEST RISK FOR SEVERE STORMS WILL BE ACROSS
TEXAS WITH AN ISOLATED THREAT EXTENDING NORTH INTO THE SOUTHERN
WISCONSIN.

...SYNOPSIS...
A LEADING SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE RAPIDLY NEWD INTO THE UPPER MS
VALLEY AND GREAT LAKES DURING THE DAY WITH SLIGHT HEIGHT RISES
BEHIND OVER THE CNTRL/NRN PLAINS. TO THE S...ANOTHER SHORTWAVE
TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS TX DURING THE DAY...EMBEDDED WITHIN A
LARGER-SCALE WEAKER TROUGH COVERING MUCH OF THE WRN AND CNTRL
STATES...PROVIDING COOL TEMPERATURES ALOFT AND INCREASED WINDS. AT
THE SURFACE...A VERY MOIST AIR MASS WILL REMAIN OVER MOST OF THE
PLAINS STATES INTO THE MS RIVER VALLEY WITH AMPLE INSTABILITY FOR
WIDESPREAD THUNDERSTORMS.

THE PRIMARY AREAS OF CONCERN WILL BE OVER TX INTO THE ARKLATEX
REGION IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH WHERE STRONG
INSTABILITY AND STRONGER FLOW EXIST AND WILL FAVOR MULTIPLE CLUSTERS
OF ORGANIZED SEVERE WEATHER.

ELSEWHERE...MORE ISOLATED STRONG/SEVERE STORMS ARE LIKELY FROM KS
INTO WI...NEAR A WEAK LOW-PRESSURE TROUGH BUT ALSO BEHIND THE
EXITING LEADING IMPULSE.

...TX...SRN OK...ARKLATEX...
WIDESPREAD STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS CAPABLE OF FLOODING
RAINS...ISOLATED/BRIEF TORNADOES...DAMAGING WINDS AND SOME HAIL ARE
EXPECTED TO FORM RELATIVELY EARLY ACROSS CENTRAL TX WITH LITTLE
CONVECTIVE INHIBITION PRESENT AND A VERY MOIST AIR MASS. FORCING
WITH THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND FAVORABLE LOW-LEVEL STORM RELATIVE
FLOW WILL STRONGLY FAVOR RAPID UPSCALE-GROWTH OF ONE OR MORE LARGE
STORM CLUSTERS MOVING ACROSS MUCH OF TX AND SRN OK...THEN INTO THE
ARKLATEX/SABINE RIVER VALLEY BY 00Z. HOWEVER...A FEW SUPERCELLS ARE
ALSO POSSIBLE...BUT THIS WILL DEPEND ON HOW QUICKLY STORMS MERGE
INTO CLUSTERS. IF CELLS REMAIN MORE CELLULAR...A FEW TORNADOES COULD
OCCUR.

...KS INTO SRN WI...
DAYTIME HEATING AND CONVERGENCE WITHIN THE WEAK SURFACE TROUGH WILL
LEAD TO SCATTERED STORM DEVELOPMENT DURING THE AFTERNOON. A FEW
STORMS ARE LIKELY TO BECOME SEVERE WITH HAIL AND PERHAPS LOCALIZED
WIND DAMAGE DEPENDING ON STORM MODE.

..JEWELL.. 05/24/2015



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