Tropical Weather Discussion
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000
AXNT20 KNHC 222333
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 PM EDT FRI MAY 22 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2330 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURE...

NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS CONTINUE ACROSS THE ZONE OF AGADIR ALONG
THE COAST OF MOROCCO...AND FOR ZONE CANARIAS IN BETWEEN THE
ISLANDS. BEAUFORT 7 OR 32KT-38KT WINDS ARE FORECAST TO CONTINUE
THROUGH TONIGHT ACROSS THESE AREAS. THESE WINDS ARE CAUSED BY
THE TIGHT SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN A 1037 MB HIGH OVER
THE AZORES AND A SURFACE LOW CURRENTLY OVER MOROCCO.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A TROPICAL WAVE IS OVER THE EASTERN ATLANTIC...EXTENDING FROM
09N26W TO 04N26W MOVING W AT 10-15 KT. SSMI TPW IMAGERY SHOWS
ABUNDANT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AROUND THE WAVE SOUTH OF 08N.
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 05N-08N BETWEEN 22W-31W.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS AFRICA INTO THE TROPICAL
ATLANTIC NEAR 09N14W TO 06N23W. THE ITCZ BEGINS NEAR 06N27W AND
CONTINUES THROUGH 06N40W TO THE COAST OF SOUTH AMERICA NEAR
02N51W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS
ALONG THE COAST OF AFRICA FROM 02N TO 05N BETWEEN 02W AND 08W.
CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION ARE
FROM 02N TO 10N BETWEEN 03W AND 22W. ISOLATED MODERATE
CONVECTION IS FROM 04N TO 09N BETWEEN 27W AND 47W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

A STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDS ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE BASIN
FROM 29N95W TO 28N83W. SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS ISOLATED
CONVECTION ALONG THIS BOUNDARY. TO THE S...A SURFACE TROUGH
EXTENDS ACROSS THE BAY OF CAMPECHE FROM 24N95W TO 19N96W.
ISOLATED SPOTTY CONVECTION IS IN THE VICINITY OF THIS BOUNDARY
MAINLY W OF 94W. A WEAK SURFACE HIGH PREVAILS OVER THE E GULF
CENTERED NEAR 26N87W. UPPER-LEVEL DIVERGENCE PREVAILS ACROSS THE
FAR E PORTION OF THE GULF EXTENDING OVER SOUTHERN FLORIDA
SUPPORTING NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE
PENINSULA AND THE KEYS. A LIGHT EASTERLY FLOW PREVAILS OVER MOST
OF THE BASIN EXCEPT N OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WHERE A LIGHT TO
GENTLE FLOW IS OBSERVED IN SCATTEROMETER DATA N OF 28N BETWEEN
86W-93W. OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS...EXPECT FOR THE FRONT AND THE
SURFACE HIGH TO DISSIPATE OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

A BROAD SURFACE HIGH PREVAILS ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND E ATLANTIC
EXTENDING S OVER THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE CARIBBEAN WATERS. AN
UPPER-LEVEL ANTICYCLONE OVER SOUTH AMERICA KEEPS A MOIST SW
UPPER-LEVEL FLOW ACROSS THE BASIN. DAYTIME HEATING AND
OROGRAPHIC LIFTING GENERATED SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
ACROSS THE GREATER ANTILLES AFFECTING THEIR ADJACENT WATERS. A
1008 MB SURFACE LOW PREVAILS OVER N COLOMBIA SUPPORTING
CONVECTION ACROSS THE SOUTHERN CARIBBEAN MAINLY S OF 11N. LIGHT
TO GENTLE TRADES WERE DEPICTED IN SCATTEROMETER DATA EXCEPT
GENTLE TO MODERATE WINDS S OF 14N BETWEEN 65W-80W. EXPECT A
SIMILAR WEATHER REGIME OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

...HISPANIOLA...

SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS PREVAIL OVER THE ISLAND AS
DAYTIME HEATING AND OROGRAPHIC LIFTING COMBINED WITH LOW-LEVEL
MOISTURE. THIS ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE DURING THE
EVENING HOURS. EXPECT A SIMILAR WEATHER PATTERN OVER THE NEXT 24
HOURS.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A 1002 MB LOW LOCATED N OF THE REGION EXTENDS ITS FRONTAL
BOUNDARY SW ACROSS THE W ATLANTIC...ANALYZED AS A STATIONARY
FRONT FROM 28N80W TO 31N75W. ISOLATED CONVECTION IS EXPECTED
ALONG THIS BOUNDARY. THE REMAINDER OF THE BASIN IS DOMINATED BY
A BROAD SURFACE RIDGE ANCHORED BY A 1028 MB SURFACE HIGH
CENTERED NEAR 33N49W AND A 1037 MB HIGH WITH CENTER N OF THE
AZORES ISLANDS. NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS CONTINUE ALONG THE
NORTHERN COAST OF MOROCCO BETWEEN THE AZORES HIGH AND A SURFACE
LOW OVER N AFRICA. PLEASE REFER TO THE SPECIAL FEATURES SECTION
FOR MORE DETAILS.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$

ERA


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