Tropical Weather Discussion
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661
AXPZ20 KNHC 122157
TWDEP

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
2205 UTC FRI FEB 12 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2145 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC GALE WARNING...GALE FORCE NORTHERLY WINDS...
WITH SEAS TO 17 FT...ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH SUN
MORNING. THE N WINDS WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH TO 20 KT OR LESS ON
MON MORNING. THE RESULTANT SWELL CONTINUES TO PROPAGATE SE
THROUGH SW...MERGING WITH ENE SWELL GENERATED FROM STRONG WINDS
IN GULF OF PAPAGAYO...MERGING WITH CROSS-EQUATORIAL SW SWELL AND
ALSO MERGING WITH LONG PERIOD NW SWELL. SEAS 12 FT OR GREATER
ARE EXPECTED TO REACH ALONG 04.5N BETWEEN 90-101W TONIGHT AND
REACH ALONG 09N BETWEEN 96-102W ON SAT NIGHT INTO SUN...WITH
SEAS 8 FT OR GREATER REACHING THE EQUATOR BETWEEN 95-110W. SEE
LATEST NWS HIGH SEAS FORECAST UNDER AWIPS/ WMO HEADERS
MIAHSFEP2/FZPN03 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS.

EPAC GALE WARNING....MODEL GUIDANCE SOMEWHAT AGREES ON A LOW
LEVEL TROUGH...OR POSSIBLY 2 TROUGHS...DEVELOPING IN THE
TROPICAL PACIFIC ON SAT. USING A BLEND OF MODEL GUIDANCE LEADS
TO SOLUTION OF A SINGLE TROUGH EXTENDING FROM ABOUT 08N132W TO
15N127W ON SAT AFTERNOON. THE GRADIENT WILL SUPPORT STRONG NE
WINDS WITHIN 300 NM W OF TROUGH WITH SEAS BUILDING TO 12 FT. THE
GRADIENT WILL SUPPORT STRONG E-SE WINDS ACROSS THE WATERS N OF
12N WITHIN 540 NM E OF TROUGH WITH SEAS OF 11-13 FT. STRONG NE
WINDS ARE ALSO EXPECTED N OF 26N BETWEEN 124-133W WITH SEAS OF
12-13 FT. MODERATE TO FRESH N-NE WINDS EXPECTED ELSEWHERE N OF
THE ITCZ AND W OF 110W WITH COMBINED SEAS OF 8-11 FT IN MIXED
SWELL. THE GRADIENT WILL FURTHER TIGHTEN LATE SAT AFTERNOON WITH
MINIMAL GALE CONDITIONS DEVELOPING N OF 12N WITHIN 420 NM W OF A
TROUGH FROM 10N128W TO 18N124W WITH SEAS BUILDING 10-15 FT. THE
GALE CONDITIONS SHOULD END ON SUN MORNING.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

A TROUGH EXTENDS SW FROM THE PACIFIC COAST OF PUERTO RICO AT
08N84W TO 05N90W WHERE SCATTEROMETER WINDS INDICATE THAT AN ITCZ
FORMS AND CONTINUES W TO 05N110W...THEN NW TO 07N123W...THEN
TURNS SW TO BEYOND 02N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG
CONVECTION WITHIN 120 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 05N88W TO
05N110W AND WITHIN 150 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 12N114W TO
04N132W.

...DISCUSSION...

ELSEWHERE N OF 15N E OF 120W...A WEAK SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDS SE
FROM 27N120W TO 19N106W. THE GRADIENT WILL SUPPORT LIGHT TO
MODERATE N-NE FLOW ACROSS THE OPEN PACIFIC WATERS BETWEEN 105-
120W INTO NEXT WEEK. COMBINED SEAS OF 7-10 FT IN NW SWELL HAVE
REACHED THE OPEN PAC WATERS N OF 28N. THESE LARGE SEAS WILL
REACH THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF BAJA EARLY SAT AND PERSIST THROUGH
SUN...THEN SUBSIDE FROM THE N ON MON. LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS
ARE OBSERVED BETWEEN 97-106W WITH THE PREVIOUSLY DESCRIBED GALE
EVENT OCCURRING ACROSS THE WATERS TO THE E OF 97W. MODERATE NW
WINDS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA THROUGH SUN
MORNING...INCREASING TO FRESH ON SUN AFTERNOON ACROSS THE
CENTRAL GULF WATERS AND SPREADING N ACROSS THE WATERS N OF 30N
ON SUN NIGHT. STRONG NW WINDS EXPECTED ACROSS THE GULF OF
CALIFORNIA ON MON AFTERNOON.

S OF 15N E OF 110W...PATCHES OF STRONG NE WINDS WILL DEVELOP
TONIGHT AND AGAIN ON SAT ACROSS THE WATERS N OF 12N E OF
89W...INCLUDING THE GULF OF FONSECA...WITH SEAS BUILDING TO ONLY
9 FT IN THE LIMITED FETCH. NE 20-30 KT SURGES WILL CONTINUE
ACROSS AND DOWNSTREAM OF THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO THROUGH SUN
MORNING AND EXTEND AS FAR SW AS 07N93W. EXPECT THE NE FLOW TO
DIMINISH TO 15-20 KT DURING THE AFTERNOONS BEGINNING ON SUN...
THEN INCREASE TO 20-25 KT AGAIN EACH NIGHT. MODERATE TO FRESH N
WINDS ARE EXPECTED TODAY ACROSS THE TROPICAL WATERS N OF ABOUT
04N AND W OF ABOUT 87W. PULSES OF FRESH TO STRONG NORTHERLY
WINDS WILL SPREAD S FROM THE GULF OF PANAMA TO ALONG ABOUT 04N
EACH NIGHT THROUGH THROUGH SUN NIGHT WITH SEAS BUILDING TO
ABOUT 10 FT NEAR 06N81W.

$$
NELSON



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