Tropical Weather Discussion
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000
AXPZ20 KNHC 010315
TWDEP

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0405 UTC SUN MAR 01 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0315 UTC.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

A LOW LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS SW FROM THE PACIFIC COAST OF COSTA
RICA AT 08.5N83W TO 04N90W WHERE SCATTEROMETER WINDS INDICATE
THAT THE ITCZ FORMS AND THEN CONTINUES W TO 03.5N116W TO
BEYOND 06N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS OBSERVED
SE OF THE LOW LEVEL TROUGH WITHIN 90 NM OF 04N85W.

...DISCUSSION...

A POSITIVE TILT UPPER TROUGH HAS ITS MEAN AXIS EXTENDING S FROM
32N126W TO A BASE OVER THE DEEP TROPICS AT 02N131W. AN UPPER
ANTICYCLONE IS CENTERED OVER HONDURAS WITH AN UPPER RIDGE
EXTENDING SW TO 09N110W. UPPER DIFFLUENCE BETWEEN THE TROUGH AND
THE RIDGE IS ENHANCING SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION WITHIN 120
NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 15N116W TO 10N127W. THE RESULTANT
DEBRIS MOISTURE IS ADVECTED NE WITHIN 330 NM EITHER SIDE OF A
LINE FROM 10N126W TO 20N112W...THEN NARROWS AS IT CONTINUES ENE
ACROSS CENTRAL MEXICO AND THE CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO...
EVENTUALLY FANNING OUT E OF FLORIDA. DEBRIS MOISTURE FROM THE
SMALL CLUSTERS OF CONVECTION OVER THE FAR SE PORTION ALONG THE
LINE FROM 04N83W TO 03N88W QUICKLY EVAPORATES IN THE DRY UPPER
AIR DOMINATING THE TROPICS TO THE E OF 102W.

A SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDS FROM 32N138W TO 16N102W. A TROUGH
EXTENDING FROM 32N118W TO 29.5N131W WILL CONTINUE TO SWING SE
INTO THE NE PART OF THE DISCUSSION AREA TONIGHT...ALL TO THE NE
OF THE RIDGE WITH POST-FRONTAL N-NE FLOW INCREASING TO 20-25 KT
WINDS...WITH 8-11 FT SEAS ACROSS THE DISCUSSION AREA N OF 28N
BETWEEN 125W AND 135W. THESE CONDITIONS WILL SHIFT SW TO ALONG
25N ON SUN. BY MON NE 20-25 KT WINDS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE
WATERS FROM 17-23N BETWEEN 132-140W WITH SEAS TO 9 FT. NORTHERLY
SWELLS WILL MIX WILL CROSS EQUATORIAL S SWELL RESULTING IN
COMBINED SEAS OF 7-10 FT ACROSS THE DISCUSSION WATERS ELSEWHERE
N OF 10N W OF 122W ON MON. A SECONDARY SURGE WILL INCREASE THE N
WINDS TO 20-25 KT AGAIN ACROSS THE AREA N OF 28N BETWEEN 120-
130W ON TUE.

GULF OF CALIFORNIA...S-SW 15-25 KT WINDS CURRENTLY OBSERVED TO
THE N OF 30N WILL DIMINISH TO 5-10 KT EARLY SUN...THEN INCREASE
TO 20-25 KT AGAIN ON MON EVENING.

GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC...NORTHERLY 20-25 WINDS CURRENTLY OBSERVED
WILL CHANGE LITTLE THROUGH MON...THEN DIMINISH TO 20 KT OR LESS
ON MON EVENING. THE NEXT NORTHERLY WIND EVENT IS FORECAST TO
BEGIN LATE THU...QUICKLY INCREASE TO A STRONG GALE THU NIGHT AND
REACH NEAR STORM FORCE EARLY FRI.

GULF OF PAPAGAYO...NOCTURNAL 20-25 KT NE SURGES ARE EXPECTED TO
RESUME LATE TONIGHT...WITH A SIGNIFICANT EVENT OCCURRING ON SUN
AND MON NIGHTS...AND A MUCH WEAKER EVENT ON TUE NIGHT.

.GULF PANAMA...NORTHERLY 10-15 KT WINDS EXPECTED EACH NIGHT TILL
MON NIGHT WHEN GUIDANCE IS SUGGESTING AN INCREASE TO 20-25 KT.

$$
NELSON


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