Tropical Weather Discussion
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AXPZ20 KNHC 092140

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
2205 UTC Fri Dec 9 2016

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is
based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and
meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2100 UTC.


Gulf of Tehuantepec Gale Warning: Scatterometer data at 1630 UTC
showed gale force winds north of 15N in the Gulf of Tehuantepec.
The pressure gradient will continue to tighten this evening and
sustained winds are expected to increase to around 45 kt. Max
seas will build to 16-18 ft by early Saturday. Gale conditions
will persist until Sunday morning, then pulse to 25-30 kt each
night from Sunday night through Tuesday night.


The monsoon trough axis extends from 08N82W to 07N98W. The ITCZ
continues from 07N98W to 09N118W to 07N127W to 08N140W.
Scattered moderate convection is within 90 nm north of the axis
between 111W and 122W.



Gulf of California: The pressure gradient between surface
troughing along the Mexico coast and high pressure over the east
Pacific will continue to support fresh to strong northwest winds
over the Gulf of California south of 27N through tonight. The
pressure gradient will relax somewhat late tonight, with winds
becoming moderate to fresh. An area of high pressure northwest
of the area will weaken late Saturday, allowing for gentle to
moderate winds to prevail Saturday night through Thursday.

Ridging dominates elsewhere in offshore waters of Mexico with a
high centered near 29N125W. Aside from the Tehuantepec event,
light to gentle winds will prevail south of 17N through the
forecast period. Fresh to occasionally strong northwest winds
west of Baja California will continue through Sunday night, then
become moderate to fresh as the ridge weakens slightly. From 17N
north to Mazatlan moderate to fresh northwest winds will prevail.


Gulf of Papagayo: Fresh to strong offshore winds east of 90W will
continue to pulse mainly during the overnight hours this weekend.
Max seas will be around 8 ft during the event. An easterly wave
in the central Caribbean will cross Central America Monday. Some
model guidance indicates low pressure development along the wave
axis as it moves west of the coast Tuesday through Wednesday.

Light to gentle north to northeast winds and combined seas of 3
to 5 ft are occurring north of the monsoon trough, which is
expected to meander between 08N and 10N through Wednesday. Light
to moderate southwest flow is observed from 05N to 09N, with
combined seas of 3 to 5 ft in southwest swell. Moderate to fresh
southerly flow is expected south of 05N through Wednesday.


High pressure centered near 29N125W extends with a ridge axis
southeast to near 15N105W. Gentle to moderate north-northwest
flow is expected northeast of the ridge axis this weekend and
moderate to fresh trades will prevail south of the ridge axis,
north of the ITCZ. Fresh to occasionally strong NE winds and
combined seas of 8 to 9 ft will generally prevail from 07N to
15N W of 120W through Sunday. Low pressure approaching the far
northwest waters will weaken the ridge on Tuesday and Wednesday,
allowing winds and seas in this area to subside.

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