Tropical Weather Discussion
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033
AXPZ20 KNHC 251549
TWDEP

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1539 UTC Sat Feb 25 2017

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is
based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and
meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1500 UTC.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

There is no ITCZ or monsoon trough currently over the discussion
waters, however a surface trough is analyzed from 00N88W to
00N100W to 00N116W. Scattered moderate convection is south of the
trough between 94W and 99W.

...DISCUSSION...

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...

Recent ship observations and satellite derived wind data
indicate moderate to fresh northwest winds continue off the coast
of the Baja California peninsula, between 1024 mb high pressure
centered near 33N125W and low pressure inland near southern
California. These winds are diminishing, but lingering northwest
swell up to 7 ft persists between Los Cabos and Socorro Islands.
Seas will subside through the remainder of the morning.

Fresh to strong northwest winds will continue over the southern
portions of the Gulf of California with seas reaching 7 ft near
Los Cabos into the afternoon. Winds and seas over the Gulf will
diminish through tonight as the low pressure shifts farther east
and the high pressure builds over the region. Moderate to fresh
westerly gap winds are possible tonight into the northern Gulf of
California, related to a weak frontal boundary moving across the
southern U.S. Rockies. A brief pulse of fresh to strong
northerly flow is possible tonight in the immediate Gulf of
Tehuantepec with nocturnal drainage flow. Otherwise, the high
pressure will maintain moderate winds and slight seas through
early next week.

Looking ahead, a weak cold front will move into Baja California
and the northern Gulf of California Monday night into Tuesday,
but the passage is expected to occur with little change in winds
and seas.

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND
WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...

Strengthening trade winds across the southwest Caribbean will
support fresh to strong gap winds into the Gulf of Papagayo
starting late Sunday night into early Monday, with pulsing
prevalent mainly during overnight hours through the upcoming
week. Similarly, expect pulsing fresh northerly gap winds into
the Gulf of Panama. Elsewhere, light to gentle breezes will
persist.

REMAINDER OF THE AREA...

Strong southerly winds are noted north of 26N ahead of an
approaching cold front associated with a complex low pressure
system northwest of the area. Earlier altimeter passes also have
indicated seas of 8 to 12 ft due to northwest swell over much of
the discussion area north of 14N and west of 130W. The winds
will diminish through today as the low pressure area lifts
farther north followed by weak ridging. The seas will remain 8 to
10 ft through much of the day, but will decrease in coverage
from east to west. By Sunday morning, the front will reach from
30N132W to 27N135W and continuing as stationary to 20N140W while
weakening. While the ridge will allow winds to diminish north of
20N, it will support fresh trade winds from 10N to 15N west of
130W, which in turn will support seas to 8 ft combined with the
current component of northwest swell Sunday into Monday.
Otherwise, little change is expected through early in the
upcoming week.

$$
LEWITSKY




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