Tropical Weather Discussion
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000
AXPZ20 KNHC 270924
TWDEP

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1005 UTC THU NOV 27 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0900 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURE...

GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC STORM WARNING...STRONG HIGH PRESSURE IN
THE SW GULF OF MEXICO IS SUPPORTING A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT
ACROSS THE ISTHMUS OF TEHUANTEPEC. AS A RESULT...MINIMAL STORM
FORCE WINDS ARE CURRENTLY BLOWING ACROSS THE AREA. THE MOST
RECENT ASCAT PASS INDICATED GALE FORCE WINDS EXTENDING DOWNWIND
AND SW OF THE GULF TO ABOUT 12N98W. IN ADDITION...AN ALTIMETER
PASS SHOWED SEAS TO 16 FT DOWNSTREAM AND SW OF THE GULF TO NEAR
13N96W...AND A SHIP REPORTED NE WINDS OF 33 KT AND SEAS TO 18 FT
NEAR 11.5N98W. MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATES POTENTIAL FOR OCCASIONAL
45-50 KT WINDS TO PERSIST INTO FRI MORNING...ALTHOUGH CONDITIONS
MAY BRIEFLY DIMINISH BELOW STORM FORCE EACH AFTERNOON AND EARLY
EVENING. WINDS WILL THEN DIMINISH TO GALE FORCE FRI AFTERNOON
THROUGH SAT MORNING...THEN TO 25 KT BY LATE SAT AND TO 20 KT OR
LESS BY LATE SUN MORNING. WAVE MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATES SEAS TO
22-23 FT WITH THE STRONGEST WINDS. SEAS OF 8 FT OR GREATER
GENERATED BY THIS IMPRESSIVE WIND EVENT WILL PROPAGATE AS
NORTHERLY SWELL WELL AWAY FROM ITS SOURCE REGION AND APPROACH
THE EQUATOR BY THE END OF THE WEEK.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 09N78W TO 09N90W. ITCZ CONTINUES
FROM 09N90W TO 10N108W TO 08N120W TO 10N125W TO 08N140W. A
CLUSTER OF MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 30 NM OF 9.5N109W.
SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS NOTED FROM 06N
TO 09N W OF 133W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF CALIFORNIA...SMALL AREA OF FRESH TO STRONG NW WINDS
CONTINUES MAINLY BETWEEN 27N TO 29N WITH SEAS TO 6-7 FT. THE
PRES GRADIENT HAS DIMINISHED ACROSS THE REGION AND WINDS ARE
FORECAST TO BE 20 KT OR LESS LATE TODAY.

GULFS OF PAPAGAYO AND FONSECA...STRONG HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING
ACROSS THE NW CARIBBEAN AND NORTHERN CENTRAL AMERICA IS
PRODUCING FRESH TO STRONG NE WINDS ACROSS THESE GAP WIND
REGIONS. LATEST ASCAT PASS PROVIDED OBSERVATIONS OF 20-30 KT
ACROSS BOTH GULFS. EXPECT BUILDING SEAS TO 8-10 FT WITH THESE
EVENTS. THESE MARINE CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH 24 HOURS IN
THE GULF OF FONSECA AND THROUGH 48 HOURS IN THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO
WITH THE STRONGEST WINDS OCCURRING DURING LATE NIGHT AND EARLY
MORNING HOURS.

A STATIONARY FRONT IS IN FAR NW WATERS AND EXTENDS 30N138W TO
28N140W. A SECOND COLD FRONT W OF AREA WILL MERGE WITH THIS
FRONT LATE TODAY. THE MERGED FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE NW
WATERS REACHING A POSITION FROM 30N136W TO 26N140W TONIGHT AND
FROM 30N132W TO 25N140W AS A WEAKENING FRONT BY FRI NIGHT. NW
SWELL TO 12-13 FT IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT WILL PROPAGATE SE
ACROSS NW WATERS TODAY.

1024 MB HIGH PRES LOCATED N OF THE DISCUSSION AREA NEAR 33N125W
EXTENDS A RIDGE OVER NORTHERN WATERS. MODERATE TO FRESH TRADES
ARE NOTED PER SCATTEROMETER DATA ON THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF
THE RIDGE. A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 15N127W TO
10N130W. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE RIDGE AND TROUGH IS
SUPPORTING A SMALL AREA OF FRESH NE WINDS W OF THE TROUGH AND AN
AREA OF COMBINED SEAS FROM RESIDUAL NW SWELL AND NE WIND WAVES
TO 8-10 FT FROM 10N TO 15N W OF TROUGH TO 131W. THE TROUGH WILL
CONTINUE TO MOVE WESTWARD WITH THE ASSOCIATED MARINE CONDITIONS
DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

$$
GR


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