Tropical Weather Discussion
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000
AXPZ20 KNHC 282106
TWDEP

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
2205 UTC SUN DEC 28 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2100 UTC.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 08N83W TO 05N95W WHERE LOW LEVEL
WINDS SUGGEST A TRANSITION TO ITCZ WHICH EXTENDS TO 07N131W TO
BEYOND 07N140W. NO SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION WAS NOTED.

...DISCUSSION...

A WEAK HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE EXTENDS OVER THE WATERS FROM 30N128W
TO 16N139W. LOW PRESSURE IS CENTERED W OF THE AREA NEAR 25N144W.
THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE RIDGE AND LOW PRESSURE IS
SUPPORTING FRESH TO STRONG WINDS OVER THE NW WATERS. WHILE THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE RIDGE AND LOWER PRESSURE IN THE
VICINITY OF THE ITCZ IS MAINTAINING FRESH TRADES N OF THE ITCZ.
THE SURFACE LOW WILL CONTINUE TO SHIFT EASTWARD TOWARD THE AREA
OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. THIS WILL TIGHTEN THE PRESSURE GRADIENT
AND HELP FOR NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS OVER THE NW WATERS BY MON.
THE LOW WILL WEAKEN AS IT MOVES INTO THE WESTERN WATERS. THIS
WILL HELP TO DIMINISH WINDS TO 25 KT BY TUE AFTERNOON.

GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC...A COLD FRONT IS MOVING THROUGH THE GULF OF
MEXICO. THE FRONT WILL REACH THE BAY OF CAMPECHE LATER TONIGHT
AND WINDS WILL START TO FUNNEL THROUGH THE CHIVELA PASS. WITH
THE TIMING OF THE WINDS COINCIDING WITH PEAK DRAINAGE
FLOW...WINDS WILL RAPIDLY RAMP UP TO NEAR GALE FORCE OVERNIGHT.
WINDS WILL DIMINISH TO 25 KT MON AFTERNOON. FRESH TO STRONG
WINDS WILL CONTINUE OVER THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC THROUGH TUE
AFTERNOON.

GULF OF PAPAGAYO...WINDS WILL PULSE TO FRESH TO STRONG DURING
THE OVERNIGHT AND EARLY MORNING HOURS TONIGHT AND MON NIGHT.

$$
AL



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