Tropical Weather Discussion
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AXPZ20 KNHC 242124

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1927 UTC Sat Jun 24 2017

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is
based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and
meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2100 UTC.


A low pressure is embedded within the monsoon trough near
13.5N98.5W or a couple of hundred miles south-southeast of
Acapulco, Mexico. Active convection is noted over this area from
11N to 16N between 93W and 101W. Overnight scatterometer pass
depicted a well defined center of circulation with fresh winds
noted over the north quadrant of the low. This system continues
to become better organized, and a tropical depression appears to
be forming. If this development trend continues, then advisories
will be initiated this evening. The low is expected to move west-
northwestward at 10 kt parallel to the coast of Mexico during
the next couple of days, bringing heavy rains to the Mexican
states of Oaxaca and Guerrero. Interests along the southwestern
coast of Mexico should monitor the progress of this system.
Please, refer to the latest Tropical Weather Outlook.


The monsoon trough extends from 10N85W to a low pressure near
13.5N98.5W to 10N102W to 09N112W to 08N120W to 09N130W. The ITCZ
axis continues from 09N130W to beyond 08N140W. Scattered moderate
to isolated strong convection is from 07N to 11N between 97W and
105W, and from 07N to 10N between 118W and 124W. Scattered
moderate convection is from 07N to 10N W of 133W.



See Special Features for more information on the low pressure
located a couple of hundred miles south-southeast of Acapulco,

Elsewhere, high pressure of 1017 mb centered near 25N128W
extends a ridge across the offshore forecast waters. Gentle to
moderate winds are noted west of the Baja California peninsula
per scatterometer data, with light to gentle winds off the coast
of southwest Mexico, and across the Gulf of California. Seas are
in the 5-6 ft range off the coast of the Baja California Peninsula,
1-2 ft over the Gulf of California, and 5-6 ft elsewhere, with
the exception of seas to 8 ft within about 120 nm NE qudrant of
the aforementioned low pressure. Winds will freshen off the
coast of Baja California Norte later this weekend as high pressure
west of the area slightly strengthens. Mainly gentle to moderate
southerly winds are expected across the Gulf of California
during the remainder of the weekend with seas generally under 4


Gentle to moderate southwest to west winds are expected across
most of the region during the forecast period, with the exception
of mainly south winds between Ecuador and the Galapagos Islands.
Additional pulses of long period southwest swell will continue
to impact the region, but seas will remain generally below 6 ft
the remainder of the weekend. Cross equatorial long period
southerly swell are expected to reach the waters between Ecuador
and the Galapagos Islands Monday night into Tuesday, building
seas up to 9 ft, except in the lee of the Galapagos Islands.


A surface trough extends from a 1012 mb low pres located north
of area near 33N130W to 24N137W. Moderate to fresh northerly
winds are on the west side of the low. East of the trough, a
1017 mb high pressure is centered near 25N128W, and extends a
ridge across the waters north of the convergence zone, producing
mainly light and variable winds N of 20N W of 120W, and gentle to
moderate winds between the convergence zone and 20N. Altimeter
passes continue to indicate seas of 8 to 11 ft, in northerly
swell, affecting the waters N of 20N W of 120W. Seas will
gradually subside from east to west on Sunday. The low pressure
located north of area and associated trough will persist on
Sunday. The low will open up into a trough on Monday while
weakening. As a result, the ridge will build back across the
region Monday and Tuesday.

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