Tropical Weather Discussion
Issued by NWS

Home | Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | Print | Product List | Glossary On
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50
000
AXPZ20 KNHC 100232
TWDEP

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0405 UTC THU JUL 10 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0230 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A TROPICAL WAVE IS N OF 09N ALONG 102W MOVING W AT AROUND 15-20
KT. THE WAVE CONTINUES TO LACK SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION AND IS
POORLY DEFINED AT THE SURFACE. THE WAVE IS APPARENT WITHIN THE
TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY.

A TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM 20N115W TO LOW PRES NEAR 17N116W TO
12N116W. SCATTERED MODERATE AND ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS
WITHIN 300 NM IN THE SE SEMICIRCLE OF THE LOW. THE LOW AND WAVE
ARE WELL APPARENT IN THE VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY AND THE TOTAL
PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH AXIS EXTENDS FROM 07N77W TO 06N91W. THE ITCZ
AXIS EXTENDS FROM 06N91W TO 07N110W TO 12N130W THEN RESUMES FROM
10N136W TO BEYOND 08N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE AND ISOLATED
STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 04N TO 07N BETWEEN 85W AND 89W...FROM
08N TO 10N BETWEEN 100W AND 107W...FROM 05N TO 08N BETWEEN 112W
AND 115W...AND ALSO WITHIN 120 NM EITHER SIDE OF AXIS W OF 134W.

...DISCUSSION...

AN EARLIER ASCAT SCATTEROMETER PASS CAPTURED THE REMNANTS OF
FAUSTO IN THE FORM OF A TROUGH WHICH NOW EXTEND FROM 16N130W TO
08N135W. SCATTERED MODERATE AND ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS
FROM 11N TO 14N BETWEEN 131W AND 134W. FRESH TO STRONG NE WINDS
ARE OCCURRING W OF THE TROUGH AXIS WITH A TIGHT PRES GRADIENT
BETWEEN THE REMNANTS AND BROAD RIDGING TO THE N...WITH AN AREA
OF FRESH SE WINDS S OF THE ITCZ WHERE THE PRES GRADIENT IS ALSO
TIGHT. RESULTANT 8-10 FT SEAS ARE ACCOMPANYING THE WINDS. THE
TROUGH WILL MOVE W OF 140W BETWEEN 24-48 HOURS WITH A LINGERING
AREA OF 8-9 FT SEAS FINALLY SUBSIDING E OF THE TROUGH AXIS BY 48
HOURS.

THE BROAD RIDGING MENTIONED ABOVE EXTENDS FROM 1031 MB HIGH
PRES NEAR 47N138W SE TO NEAR THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA. THIS
RIDGING IS FORCING A RELATIVELY WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT N OF THE
ITCZ WITH GENERALLY MODERATE TO FRESH BREEZE NE TO E TRADEWINDS
PREVAILING. LITTLE CHANGE IS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS.

DISRUPTING THE BROAD RIDGING IS THE STUBBORNLY PERSISTENT
REMNANTS OF DOUGLAS WHICH HAVE FINALLY DEGENERATED INTO A TROUGH
EXTENDING FROM 28N126W TO 24N127W. NO DEEP CONVECTION IS NOTED
NEAR THE TROUGH AND IT IS EXPECTED TO COMPLETELY DISSIPATE
DURING THE NEXT 12-24 HOURS.

GAP WINDS...
GULF OF PAPAGAYO...STRONG CARIBBEAN TRADEWINDS INDUCED A GULF OF
PAPAGAYO GAP WIND EVENT EARLIER TODAY...THOUGH NO DIRECT
OBSERVATIONS WERE AVAILABLE. A BRIEF LULL IS LIKELY OCCURRING NOW
WITH WINDS PULSING BACK TO FRESH TO STRONG LEVELS DURING THE
LATE NIGHT/EARLY MORNING HOURS THROUGH FRI. RESULTANT SEAS WILL
BUILD TO 8-11 FT DURING THE STRONGEST WINDS. FORCING OF THIS
EVENT SHOULD RELAX BY LATE FRI INTO SAT.

GULF TEHUANTEPEC...MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATES STRONG NOCTURNAL
DRAINAGE WITH FRESH TO STRONG NORTHERLY  WINDS EXPECTED LATE FRI
NIGHT/EARLY SAT.

$$
LEWITSKY



USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.