429
FXAK68 PAFC 291225
AFDAFC

Southcentral and Southwest Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
425 AM AKDT Mon Apr 29 2024

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (Days 1 through 3: Today
through Wednesday)...
The upper level ridge remains over Southcentral Alaska this
morning although there is a shortwave tracking across the northern
Copper River Basin which is enhancing clouds and bringing in a
few showers. The ridge is slowly breaking down as the pattern
shifts with the upper level flow becoming more south-to southeast
on Tuesday and Wednesday which will bring in more clouds and
generally cooler temperatures to the region. The main chance for
rain will be over Kodiak to the eastern Kenai Peninsula Tuesday
night and Wednesday as a low tracks south of the Kodiak and the
front associated with it crosses the Gulf. Most inland areas
should remain dry as precipitation will downslope out over the lee
side of the coastal mountain ranges. This pattern is also
conducive for the south-to-southeast gap winds to develop in
places such as Turnagain Arm, Knik River, and near the Copper
River; especially from Tuesday evening through Wednesday.

&&


.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA (Days 1 through 3: Today
through Thursday morning)...

The upper-level ridge centered over a good portion of the mainland
this weekend will continue to move eastward over southcentral
Alaska today. This will allow light southerly flow in the middle
to upper levels to take over for the new work week. As such, low
stratus, misty conditions, and potential fog will dominate coastal
Bristol Bay and the Kuskokwim Delta. Low stratus and fog should
burn off by late morning with day-time heating. However,
cloudcover will still exist in any regard. To the south, a weak
low pressure continues moving eastward in the North Pacific with
its front straddling the southern Alaska Peninsula (AKPEN). Light
rain showers are anticipated for most of the day with this system
and eventually ending from west-to-east tonight as the system
slides by to the south. For Tuesday and the first part of Wednesday,
weak upper- level shortwaves will lift over mainland Southwest
Alaska and will help to generate some diurnal showers along the
foothills of the higher terrain where snowpack no longer exists.
Otherwise, expect the majority of the area to remain on the dry
side. Wednesday afternoon, a Bering front, in it weakened stage,
looks to come ashore along the Bristol Bay coast and southern
AKPEN delivering potentially more wide spread rain and/or showers
to the region with scattered showers possible over the Kuskokwim
Delta and lower Kuskokwim Valley. This front continues to weaken
and push eastward into the Gulf by Thursday with more scattered
showers possible for mostly Bristol Bay.

Meanwhile, in the Bering, a North Pacific low is currently
organizing and strengthening west the of the Aleutian Chain. Its
gale-force front will enter the western Bering this morning and
sweep eastward across the Bering and Aleutian Chain while
weakening through Wednesday. Gusty southerly to southeast winds
ahead of the front along with rain are anticipated with cooler air
wrapping in behind the front. Yet another gale-force front looks
to enter the western Bering for Thursday with more gusty winds and
rain for the Aleutian Chain.

&&


.LONG TERM FORECAST (Days 4 through 7: Thursday through Sunday)...

Low pressure moves into the western Bering Sea on Thursday, its
front extends over the Aleutians by Wednesday. Multiple low
centers track through the Gulf of Alaska through late week and the
weekend. High pressure may linger across inland portions of
Southcentral Alaska through the end of this week before the
pattern shifts this weekend with a front moving onshore. Areas
along the north Gulf coast, Prince William Sound and Kodiak Island
will likely see periods of rain, however, there is still some
uncertainty how far inland the precipitation will track.

&&

.AVIATION...

PANC...VFR conditions and light winds will persist.

&&

$$