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000
FXAK67 PAJK 221307
AFDAJK

Southeast Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Juneau AK
507 AM AKDT Mon Apr 22 2024

.SHORT TERM.../Through Tonight/...The rain showers that have been
impacting the Panhandle south of the Icy Strain corridor and along
the Outer Coast will diminish through the period for the majority
of the Panhandle as the current low impacting the area will
continue to weaken and move away from the area. The extreme
southern Panhandle looks to see an uptick in shower activity
approaching the chance category starting at the very tail end of
the period(late tonight/early Tuesday morning) as a weak low to
the southwest of the region progrades eastward, skirting by the
extreme southeastern Gulf of Alaska waters while continuing to
weaken. Any places that do see rain from the passing isolated to
widely scattered showers will see only light amounts. With
primarily mostly cloudy to cloudy skies continuing over the area,
temperatures will stay moderated during the daytime and overnight
hours. Therefore, no additional record high temperatures are
expected. With no tight pressure gradient present over the
Panhandle, winds will remain benign through the period.

.LONG TERM...Key Message:
-Minor changes to the forecast with precipitation chances on the
downtrend by Monday night, somewhat dry conditions return by mid-
week.

Discussion: Minor changes to the long term forecast with down trends
in PoP chances through mid week. The dynamics with the system on
Monday afternoon still aren`t impressive given a lack of upper or
mid level support in addition to the lack of any significant amount
of moisture. For now, went with low end slight chance of PoPs in the
forecast on Monday afternoon as the weak front occludes over
southern portions of the AOR with the main parent low sliding
southeast towards CONUS.

One change to the forecast is Wednesday with an aloft low system
passing south of the panhandle. Easterly flow aloft combined with
modest vorticity advection and clearing skies may lead to some
easterly showers developing around Skagway, Juneau, Petersburg,
Wrangell, and Hyder. At this time, the chance is not great,
represented in roughly 20 PoPs for the time frame. However, if these
showers do generate, then high temperatures for these areas will
likely be lower than expected.

Looking ahead, confidence continues grow that by Tuesday into late
week dry conditions should prevail, with partly to mostly sunny
skies and high temperatures increasing into the 50s & 60s.

Rain and clouds start to return again by next weekend as a new
weakening front moves in from the SW. There are differences on
timing and how strong it will be but the general trend is toward
damper conditions especially toward late next weekend as overall
flow turns more onshore.

&&

.AVIATION.../Until 12Z Tuesday/...Primarily CIG and VIS conditions
within the VFR flight category are expected through the period
with the exception of some areas temporarily dipping down into the
MVFR category through mid-morning Monday associated with isolated
to scattered shower activity primarily over the southern and
central Panhandle and along the Outer Coast. Those will taper off
through the period as the weak area of low pressure causing those
will continue to weaken and depart the area. Area winds and LLWS
will continue to be benign through the 24-hour TAF period.

&&

.AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory for PKZ661>664.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...PRB
LONG TERM....NC
AVIATION...JLC

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