000
FXUS63 KARX 232230
AFDARX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service La Crosse WI
530 PM CDT Fri Jun 23 2017

.SHORT TERM...(Tonight through Saturday Night)
Issued at 243 PM CDT Fri Jun 23 2017

Water Vapor/Regional Radar Mosaic imagery this afternoon featuring a
mid-level trough and associated scattered shower activity swinging
eastward through MN. Looking for this trough and showers to continue
rotating east into our area later this afternoon into this evening.
Limited instability may eke out an isolated thunderstorm, but overall
expecting scattered showers. Look for this activity to die off later
this evening with sunset/loss of surface heating.

For the rest of tonight, plan on partly cloudy and cool conditions
with lows dipping into the lower/middle 50s.

A rather vigorous mid-level trough/strong 700-300mb pv-advection
will drop through the area for Saturday, bringing with it widespread
shower/scattered thunderstorms by afternoon lasting into the
evening. Given strength of mid-level dynamics/steepening lapse
rates/MUCAPE of 500-1000J/kg, thinking we could see a few stronger
storms capable of sub-severe hail and strong gusty winds. Look for
this convection to simmer down again after sunset with loss of
heating. Partly cloudy and chilly conditions then for the rest of
the overnight with lows falling off into the 45-50 degree range.

.LONG TERM...(Sunday though Friday)
Issued at 243 PM CDT Fri Jun 23 2017

Cool/cyclonic flow continues Sunday through Monday with a couple
embedded weak troughs. As a result, scattered showers and isolated
afternoon thunderstorms expected mainly east of the Mississippi on
Sunday and mainly across central WI on Monday. Otherwise, plan on
cooler than normal temperatures with highs Sunday generally in the
lower/middle 60s and 65 to 70 Monday.

Tuesday looks dry and a bit warmer as a ridge of high pressure
drifts overhead. Still a bit below normal temperature-wise though
with highs in the lower and middle 70s.

Wednesday through Friday looks a bit unsettled with scattered
showers/storms as both the GFS/ECMWF bring a couple low pressure
system across the Plains and through the Upper Mississippi River
Valley.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Saturday evening)
Issued at 530 PM CDT Fri Jun 23 2017

Cigs/WX/Vsby: diurnally driven bkn cu deck late this afternoon will
dissipate with the advent of sundown. Much of the same can be
expected for Sat/Sun afternoons as a couple shortwave troughs, good
low level lapse rates, and afternoon instability work to produce bkn
cu fields along with scattered shra and possible ts. Could be a
short lived vsby restriction with any thunderstorm. On the whole,
expecting VFR conditions.

Winds: should stay northwest through Sat. Look for gustiness to
return by late morning Saturday, and some enhanced gusts around any
heavier shower or thunderstorm - upwards of 30 kts possible.

&&

.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...None.
MN...None.
IA...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DAS
LONG TERM....DAS
AVIATION.....Rieck