Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS La Crosse, WI

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FXUS63 KARX 232337
AFDARX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service La Crosse WI
637 PM CDT SAT JUL 23 2016

.UPDATE...
Issued at 637 PM CDT Sat Jul 23 2016

Persistent showers and storms for much of the day are finally
coming to an end, but do remain mainly east of the Mississippi
River, driven by persistent warm advection in advance of a notable
shortwave tracking through the region. In the wake of that
feature, we continue to watch just how much destabilization can
take place in advance of an approaching cold front through the
evening. Really starting to get the feeling that our threat for
any additional severe storms is rather lower through the night,
especially given a lack of any real activity to our northwest
along the front currently. Near term guidance does still hint at a
very narrow corridor of mainly elevated instability sneaking back
north in the pre-frontal airmass through 06Z, but the proof will
be told by upstream radar trends over the next few hours.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Tonight through Monday Night)
Issued at 333 PM CDT SAT JUL 23 2016

Quite a busy day as strong thunderstorms/torrential downpours
overtook the area. This was due to a tropical tap/moisture transport
draped across I-80 in IA and ahead of a passing mid-level shortwave
trough. Numerous flood products have been issued as some communities
have seen street flooding/basement flooding. Precipitation and cloud
cover has kept temperatures in the 70s. Trouble is that the
dewpoints are also in the 70s. So quite a muggy/wet airmass.

Looking for a bit of a break in the action here between 3 and 5 pm,
but focus then turns to incoming cold front later this evening
along with another round of thunderstorms. Storm parameters show the
possibility for severe threat with better potential along/north of I-
94. Main threat would be damaging winds along with torrential
downpours and potential for some more localized flooding. Timing of
severe threat tonight looks to be in the 10pm to 4 am time frame.

Appears bulk of storms should depart east of the area by daybreak
with drier air filtering in for Sunday. Look for highs Sunday in the
80s, but more importantly dew points will be falling into the 60s
which will be much welcome.

Drier/cooler weather will last through Monday as high pressure
builds in from the Northern Plains. Look for highs Monday in the 80s.

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday through Saturday)
Issued at 333 PM CDT SAT JUL 23 2016

Shower/thunderstorm chances return Tuesday afternoon, then last
through Saturday on and off as northwest flow in the mid/upper
levels ushers in several troughs across the region. Temperatures
look to be pleasant in the middle 70s to lower 80s.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Sunday evening)
Issued at 637 PM CDT Sat Jul 23 2016

Rain has ended at RST and LSE and they should remain dry through
the evening hours. We will be watching to see if any additional
showers and storms can get going along an approaching cold front
to the northwest tonight. Should anything get going, it would
cross the TAF sites between roughly 06Z and 10Z, but that chance
looks lower and lower with time. Given very low confidence, will
carry nothing but a vicinity shower mention at this time.
Persistent stronger southerly flow in advance of the approaching
front should preclude much in the way of fog development (maybe a
touch of light fog at times), before much drier air and clearing
skies arrive behind the cold front into the day on Sunday

&&

.ARX Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
WI...None.
MN...None.
IA...None.
&&

$$

UPDATE...Lawrence
SHORT TERM...DAS
LONG TERM...DAS
AVIATION...Lawrence


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