


Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS La Crosse, WI
Issued by NWS La Crosse, WI
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181 FXUS63 KARX 131837 AFDARX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service La Crosse WI 137 PM CDT Sun Jul 13 2025 .KEY MESSAGES... - Smokey skies clear out by Monday with very low (10%) probabilities for showers tonight into Monday. - Next chance of widespread showers and storms comes Tuesday night through Wednesday. The severe weather potential looks low at this time. - Cooler for the end of next week with highs in the 70s from Thursday into the weekend. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 135 PM CDT Sun Jul 13 2025 This Weekend into Early Next Week: Smoke Departs, Mostly Dry With increasing southwesterly lower tropospheric flow advecting our overnight smoke to the northeast, visibilities have steadily improved this morning and were in the 5-8 mile range by noon. The smoke should continue to push out of the region overnight. Decaying convection slides southeastward out of central Minnesota tonight along a weakly confluent near-surface boundary. While forcing is not strong, the moisture axis narrow, and mid-level lapse rates poor, there is just enough of a window to support high-based showers to warrant adding in a corridor of sprinkle wording to the forecast after 06Z and into the early morning on Monday. Increasing warm air advection during the day on Monday should wash out/lift north whatever is left of this boundary during the day. Muggy summertime air returns northward with this southerly flow with highs reaching into the mid-80s to near 90. Cannot fully rule out some afternoon convection along the retreating boundary north of I-90, but details are too muddy to hang one`s hat on. Tue - Wed: Next Chance of Widespread Showers and Storms Broad WSW flow gradually amplifies across the region between Monday and Wednesday evening with an upstream trough across the Rockies helping to usher a cold front southeastward out of the Canadian Prairies. With the frontal orientation nearly parallel to the upper level flow, convection that does initiate along it will quickly grow upscale into a line and the overall severe threat will be limited in space and time. The first round of storms is progged to form over North Dakota and northwestern MN Monday evening. How far south the cold pool from these storms can advance against a modest 30-40-kts LLJ will dictate where storms fire on Tuesday afternoon, most likely across central MN. The LLJ will be weaker Tuesday night and allow the cold pool from these storms to surge farther south, but storms will definitely be in a decaying state if/when they reach the forecast area. For Wednesday, convective debris looks to linger, but how much and where remains a wild card in the forecast. It is no surprise then that there is a modest spread in the temperature forecast for Wednesday, dictated by the degree of cloud cover and showers. The front looks to clear the forecast area by the evening as the surface low passes through. Late Week: Cooler, Drier The end of the week will be characterized by a period of cooler weather more typical of mid-September as a shot of polar air grazes the region. The chances of precipitation during this window are fairly low (< 20%) and would be towards the Highway 18 corridor and on south. Overnight lows will be driven by the degree of cloud cover and could fall into the mid to upper 40s (the NBM 10th percentile) in favored spots east of the Mississippi if conditions align perfectly. By the weekend, the progressive zonal flow undulates again and warm air advection ensues. && .AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY/... Issued at 1231 PM CDT Sun Jul 13 2025 VFR expected though the period. Overnight and early morning /09-15Z/, a very low chance of showers or possibly TSRA (10%) occurs with a weak trough moving through from west to east, along with some instability along it. For now have handled it with a SCT060 as confidence is low for this to materialize, especially to affect the KRST/KLSE airfields. && .ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WI...None. MN...None. IA...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...Skow AVIATION...Baumgardt