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000
FXUS61 KBGM 111752
AFDBGM

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Binghamton NY
152 PM EDT Thu Apr 11 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
After a brief break in rain showers early this afternoon,
showers will return by late this afternoon and this evening,
along with increasingly gusty winds and perhaps some thunder.
Cooler air returns briefly for the weekend, with a warming trend
expected again early next week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
1125 AM Update:

First batch of rain showers has mostly cleared the area, so made
adjustments to PoPs to better reflect latest radar trends.
Another round of showers will move in from the south by mid-late
afternoon.

425 AM Update...
Showers will increase in coverage early this morning as a warm front
slowly lifts northward across the area. Some patchy fog will also be
found. Showers will lift north of NEPA by around 8 AM, and the NYS
Thruway corridor by around 11 AM. Some breaks of sunshine will
develop as well, mainly away from the Catskills and Poconos.
Temperatures will be somewhat variable across the area, with
upper-60s to near 70 possible west of I-81 and along the
Thruway into the Mohawk Valley, with mid-60s across NEPA, and
cooler upper-50s to lower-60s in the Catskills and Poconos.

As low pressure moves from the Ohio Valley towards Lake Erie and
deepens, an additional round of showers and some isolated
thunderstorms will lift into the area from the southwest this
afternoon. This will reach the Finger Lakes and Wyoming Valley
around 4-6 PM, then overspread CNY through the evening hours.

In response to deepening low pressure to our west, SE winds will
become quite gusty overnight, particularly over higher terrain
areas. Not expecting a repeat of 4/3, as models show the LLJ will be
oriented N-S and focused off to our east, and we lack the high
pressure ridge axis over southern New England which tightened the
surface pressure gradient. Winds aloft look to max out around
midnight, with a temperature inversion aloft keeping the max gust
potential around 35-40 mph, shy of advisory criteria. But with the
wetting rains and perhaps some leftover snags/weakened trees from a
week ago, expect some minor impacts from the winds.

A cold front will push through the area late tonight, along with a
line of heavier showers and thunderstorms, aided by fairly strong
wind shear. The storms may produce a few brief stronger wind gusts
or even small hail.

Storm total rainfall through Friday afternoon, including this
morning`s batch of rain, looks to be in the 0.75 to 1.00 inch range
for most of the area, with higher amounts up to 1.50 inches in the
Poconos and Catskills. This will result in some rises on area rivers
and streams, but the flooding threat continues to look to stay on
the lower end of the spectrum.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
350 AM Update...

An exiting upper level low will exit the region Saturday,
leaving chances for rain and snow showers in its wake over the
region. Cold air advection moving in behind this exiting system
will allow for snow showers to mix into the rain showers, mostly
constrained to Central NY and the Southern Tier. Saturday will
be the coldest day of both the short and long term forecast,
with temperatures in the low- to mid-40s. A shortwave moving
over the Great Lakes into our are Sunday will bring chances for
rain showers and thunderstorms. Temperatures will also take on a
warming trend, with temperatures warming into the high-50s to
low-60s for Sunday.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
350 AM Update...

The long term period looks relatively quiet. At the very end of
the forecast period, a warm front moves into the region
Wednesday morning, but its too far out in time to tell exact
details of arrival. The warming trend continues into the week,
with temperatures warming up to the 70s for Tuesday and
Wednesday.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Despite a lull in rain showers this afternoon, ceiling
restrictions remain; mainly in the Fuel Alternate to MVFR
categories. Another round of rain showers will move in from the
south this evening, which will bring additional ceiling
restrictions, as well as visby restrictions in steadier rain
showers. Isolated thunder will be possible as well, but
confidence continues to be too low to include in the TAFs at
this time. Rain showers start to taper off Friday morning, but
ceiling restrictions are expected to remain.

Gusty winds are also expected, occasionally over 30kts. In
addition LLWS is expected to develop for a time tonight.

Outlook...

Friday afternoon...Lingering ceiling restrictions, mainly MVFR
to Fuel Alternate, with additional rain showers and gusty SW
winds.

Friday night through Saturday...Possible restrictions from rain
and snow showers. Gusty winds continue.

Sunday...Chance for rain showers and possible restrictions.

Monday through Tuesday...Mainly VFR.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...None.
NY...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MPH
NEAR TERM...BJG/MPH
SHORT TERM...KL
LONG TERM...KL
AVIATION...BJG