628
FXUS65 KBYZ 110141
AFDBYZ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Billings MT
741 PM MDT Thu Jul 10 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Cold front arrives this evening. Gusty north winds and Isolated
  to scattered showers/thunderstorms tonight into Friday morning.

- Becoming sunny and dry Friday afternoon with highs in the 70s.

- Hot (90s) and dry conditions return for the weekend.

- Cooler temperatures and precipitation chances Tuesday and
  Wednesday next week.

&&

.UPDATE...
Surface cold front has surged thru north central MT and is
reaching northern portions of our cwa as of 730pm. Judith Gap is
gusting to 35 mph and the temp has fallen from a daytime high of
85F to its current value of 70F. Further upstream, the temp has
fallen to 53F at Cut Bank, indicative of the cold advection we
will see tonight. Most shower activity tonight will be post-
frontal, but just recently a few showers and weak t-storms
developed in an area from Columbus to Billings and Hardin, along
an axis of modest instability. Expect NW-N winds to increase w/
the cold frontal passage this evening, followed by the greatest
potential for mostly light rain showers (scattered coverage) later
tonight and tomorrow morning in our east and south. One final
note: Day Cloud Phase satellite imagery shows some smoke over far
northeast MT and northwest ND. Smoke in the post-frontal air mass
may be a concern for eastern MT, but latest model forecasts
suggest worst conditions from wildfires in Saskatchewan will drop
into the Dakotas tomorrow. Something to watch. In the meantime,
enjoy the cooler temps which are nearly upon us.

JKL

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Tonight Through Friday night...

Benign westerly flow over the region today will give way to an
upper trough tracking southeast across Canada and the high plains
tonight into Friday. The associated cold front will push into our
CWA this evening bringing brisk northerly winds (15-30 mph). A
band of post frontal precipitation will drop south across our area
overnight into Friday. Current models suggest under a tenth of
rainfall on average. The probability of at least a tench of an
inch ranges from around 45% along the MT/WY border region to
around 10% over the plains of east central Montana. Some embedded
thunder is possible as well. Otherwise, temps will be notably
cooler for Friday with highs in the 70s.

Strong dry air advection pushes into the area from the north by
Friday evening bringing an end to any precipitation. Overnight
lows Friday will be seasonably comfortable in the upper 40s to
lower 50s. BT

Saturday through Thursday...

Upper level ridging will return for the weekend leading to warm
and dry conditions. Most locations will see temperatures in the
90s F. Monday will bring more uncertainty to the forecast as there
is ensemble disagreement over when an upper level trough will
move into the region. The general consensus among ensembles at
this time is that Monday will be cooler than Sunday, but overall
Monday appears to be a transition day.

Tuesday will be much cooler with the front having moved through
sometime Monday night. The ECMWF EFI is showing values of
-0.8/-0.9 for parts of the region indicating temperatures much
below average. Currently the NBM is giving the region a 30-60%
chance of having a high temperature below 70 F on Tuesday and a
20-50% chance for the same on Wednesday. Precipitation potential
has increased over the past few model runs with the NBM now giving
the region a 60-70% chance of getting greater than 0.1 inches.
This cooldown looks to be short lived however with ridging
strongly favored to return by Thursday. Torgerson

&&

.AVIATION...

A cold front passage will bring breezy, 15 to 30 knot north to
northwesterly wind gusts to all TAF sites this evening. Ahead of
this front, isolated showers and weak thunderstorms are occurring
over south-central Montana. Behind this front, a band of showers,
with weak embedded thunderstorms, looks to drop south through
areas around and east of KBIL tonight into Friday. While VFR
conditions will prevail through the TAF period, there is a slight
chance (15-30 percent) of MVFR ceilings developing around KSHR to
KMLS and KBHK Friday morning. Partial obscurations to mountain
tops are possible tonight into Friday. BT/Arends

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMP/POPS...

    Fri     Sat     Sun     Mon     Tue     Wed     Thu
-----------------------------------------------------------
BIL 058/078 055/092 061/096 063/091 056/066 050/072 052/085
    21/U    00/U    00/U    01/U    55/T    42/W    10/U
LVM 049/079 048/089 054/093 056/091 048/066 041/073 045/086
    21/U    00/B    00/U    12/T    55/T    42/T    11/U
HDN 056/077 049/092 057/096 060/092 055/067 048/074 049/085
    31/U    00/U    00/U    11/U    64/W    42/W    10/U
MLS 058/078 053/091 060/096 063/090 057/070 050/073 052/084
    31/U    00/B    00/U    11/U    54/W    32/W    10/U
4BQ 059/075 052/088 061/095 066/091 058/069 051/069 051/082
    33/T    00/B    00/U    11/U    54/T    52/W    10/U
BHK 055/074 049/086 056/093 060/090 054/070 047/070 047/080
    32/T    00/B    00/U    01/U    54/W    32/W    11/U
SHR 054/073 046/088 056/093 058/091 052/067 045/070 046/083
    24/T    00/U    00/U    11/U    45/T    53/T    11/U

&&

.BYZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MT...None.
WY...None.

&&

$$
weather.gov/billings