


Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Billings, MT
Issued by NWS Billings, MT
628 FXUS65 KBYZ 110141 AFDBYZ Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Billings MT 741 PM MDT Thu Jul 10 2025 .KEY MESSAGES... - Cold front arrives this evening. Gusty north winds and Isolated to scattered showers/thunderstorms tonight into Friday morning. - Becoming sunny and dry Friday afternoon with highs in the 70s. - Hot (90s) and dry conditions return for the weekend. - Cooler temperatures and precipitation chances Tuesday and Wednesday next week. && .UPDATE... Surface cold front has surged thru north central MT and is reaching northern portions of our cwa as of 730pm. Judith Gap is gusting to 35 mph and the temp has fallen from a daytime high of 85F to its current value of 70F. Further upstream, the temp has fallen to 53F at Cut Bank, indicative of the cold advection we will see tonight. Most shower activity tonight will be post- frontal, but just recently a few showers and weak t-storms developed in an area from Columbus to Billings and Hardin, along an axis of modest instability. Expect NW-N winds to increase w/ the cold frontal passage this evening, followed by the greatest potential for mostly light rain showers (scattered coverage) later tonight and tomorrow morning in our east and south. One final note: Day Cloud Phase satellite imagery shows some smoke over far northeast MT and northwest ND. Smoke in the post-frontal air mass may be a concern for eastern MT, but latest model forecasts suggest worst conditions from wildfires in Saskatchewan will drop into the Dakotas tomorrow. Something to watch. In the meantime, enjoy the cooler temps which are nearly upon us. JKL && .DISCUSSION... Tonight Through Friday night... Benign westerly flow over the region today will give way to an upper trough tracking southeast across Canada and the high plains tonight into Friday. The associated cold front will push into our CWA this evening bringing brisk northerly winds (15-30 mph). A band of post frontal precipitation will drop south across our area overnight into Friday. Current models suggest under a tenth of rainfall on average. The probability of at least a tench of an inch ranges from around 45% along the MT/WY border region to around 10% over the plains of east central Montana. Some embedded thunder is possible as well. Otherwise, temps will be notably cooler for Friday with highs in the 70s. Strong dry air advection pushes into the area from the north by Friday evening bringing an end to any precipitation. Overnight lows Friday will be seasonably comfortable in the upper 40s to lower 50s. BT Saturday through Thursday... Upper level ridging will return for the weekend leading to warm and dry conditions. Most locations will see temperatures in the 90s F. Monday will bring more uncertainty to the forecast as there is ensemble disagreement over when an upper level trough will move into the region. The general consensus among ensembles at this time is that Monday will be cooler than Sunday, but overall Monday appears to be a transition day. Tuesday will be much cooler with the front having moved through sometime Monday night. The ECMWF EFI is showing values of -0.8/-0.9 for parts of the region indicating temperatures much below average. Currently the NBM is giving the region a 30-60% chance of having a high temperature below 70 F on Tuesday and a 20-50% chance for the same on Wednesday. Precipitation potential has increased over the past few model runs with the NBM now giving the region a 60-70% chance of getting greater than 0.1 inches. This cooldown looks to be short lived however with ridging strongly favored to return by Thursday. Torgerson && .AVIATION... A cold front passage will bring breezy, 15 to 30 knot north to northwesterly wind gusts to all TAF sites this evening. Ahead of this front, isolated showers and weak thunderstorms are occurring over south-central Montana. Behind this front, a band of showers, with weak embedded thunderstorms, looks to drop south through areas around and east of KBIL tonight into Friday. While VFR conditions will prevail through the TAF period, there is a slight chance (15-30 percent) of MVFR ceilings developing around KSHR to KMLS and KBHK Friday morning. Partial obscurations to mountain tops are possible tonight into Friday. BT/Arends && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMP/POPS... Fri Sat Sun Mon Tue Wed Thu ----------------------------------------------------------- BIL 058/078 055/092 061/096 063/091 056/066 050/072 052/085 21/U 00/U 00/U 01/U 55/T 42/W 10/U LVM 049/079 048/089 054/093 056/091 048/066 041/073 045/086 21/U 00/B 00/U 12/T 55/T 42/T 11/U HDN 056/077 049/092 057/096 060/092 055/067 048/074 049/085 31/U 00/U 00/U 11/U 64/W 42/W 10/U MLS 058/078 053/091 060/096 063/090 057/070 050/073 052/084 31/U 00/B 00/U 11/U 54/W 32/W 10/U 4BQ 059/075 052/088 061/095 066/091 058/069 051/069 051/082 33/T 00/B 00/U 11/U 54/T 52/W 10/U BHK 055/074 049/086 056/093 060/090 054/070 047/070 047/080 32/T 00/B 00/U 01/U 54/W 32/W 11/U SHR 054/073 046/088 056/093 058/091 052/067 045/070 046/083 24/T 00/U 00/U 11/U 45/T 53/T 11/U && .BYZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MT...None. WY...None. && $$ weather.gov/billings